Threshold behavior and aggregate fluctuation

This paper concerns a propagation mechanism in an economy where many individuals follow a threshold rule and interact with a positive feedback. We derive an asymptotic distribution of the propagation size when the number of the agents tends to infinity. The propagation distribution exhibits a slower convergence to a deterministic value than it would if the agents followed a smooth adjustment policy. This gives rise to significant aggregate fluctuations in a finite lumpy-adjusting economy even when the agents are hit by small independent shocks.     

Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?

In this paper we analyze the impact of economic and institutional (ECB decision rules) asymmetries on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Euroland. We consider a model where asymmetric shocks and divergent propagation of shocks in output and inflation are potential causes of tensions within the ECB concerning the conduct of common monetary (interest rate) policy. Welfare implications of the alternative decision procedures are discussed.     

Fiscal deficits,banking crises and policy reversal in a semi-open economy

We study the effect of domestic policies and external shocks in a semi-open economy characterized by incomplete liberalization of the financial sector. We argue that in such transition economies stabilization programs can have a negative impact on the fiscal imbalances, offsetting to some extent the very achievement of the stabilization program. We develop a simple general equilibrium model which allows propagation of shocks in the presence of government guarantees and imperfect capital mobility. We also empirically test the impact of positive foreign interest shock on the Indian economy using a reduced form VAR approach. The econometric evidence, though broadly consistent with the main predictions of the model, suggests no significant impact of foreign interest rate shock on output and credit. We conclude that incomplete liberalization of the financial sector in transition economies has two effects. It reduces i) exposure to external financial shocks (like the current credit crisis) and ii) ability to deal with real sector shocks (which may arise from global recession in the medium term) due to endogenous policy reversals and presence of government guarantees.     

Competitive equilibria with limited enforcement

We show how to decentralize constrained efficient allocations that arise from enforcement constraints between sovereign nations. In a pure exchange economy these allocations can be decentralized with private agents acting competitively and taking as given government default decisions on foreign debt. In an economy with capital these allocations can be decentralized if the government can tax capital income as well as default on foreign debt. The tax on capital income is needed to make private agents internalize a subtle externality. The decisions of the government can arise as an equilibrium of a dynamic game between governments.     

Interpreting life-cycle inequality patterns as an efficient allocation: Mission impossible?

The life-cycle patterns of consumption, wage and hours inequality observed in U.S. cross-sectional data are commonly viewed as incompatible with a Pareto efficient allocation. We determine the extent to which these qualitative and quantitative patterns can or cannot be produced by Pareto efficient allocations in models with preference shocks, wage shocks and full information.     

Monetary Policy, Agency Costs and Output Dynamics

This paper examines the role of financial market imperfections for output reactions to nominal interest rate shocks. Empirical evidence shows a hump-shaped impulse response function of output and suggests that credit supply co-moves with output. A monetary business cycle model with staggered price setting is presented where the firms' outlays for capital and labor must be covered by the sum of net worth of entrepreneurs and loans in the form of debt contracts. These properties are shown to generate a hump-shaped impulse response of output, which takes on the smooth and persistent appearance of the empirical output response when nominal wages are set in a staggered way, too.     

A business cycle model with variable capacity utilization and demand disturbances

We develop a dynamic general-equilibrium model with demand (preference) shocks, estimated using Hall's (J. Labour Economics 15 (1997) 223) residual, that replicates U.S. business cycles well, at least compared to the real business cycle models. The key factor is cyclical capital utilization, which is based on imperfect competition, slow adjustments in capital stock, and fixed requirement of labor input. We also demonstrate theoretically that a representative-agent economy with preference shocks could be viewed as the reduced form of a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete markets. Specifically, a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete markets is aggregated into a representative-agent economy with preference shocks. This result would provide a microeconomic foundation for preference shock models. It is also shown that a shock to marginal utility of consumption and a shock to marginal disutility of labor have different effects.     

Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States*

We use a 12‐dimensional VAR to examine the aggregate effects of two structural technology shocks and two policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market variables and other key aggregate variables in response to the shock. We document that labor market indicators display “hump‐shaped” responses to the identified shocks. Technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important for labor market volatility but the ranking of their importance is sensitive to the VAR specification. The conditional correlations at business cycle frequencies are similar in response to the four shocks, apart from the correlations between hours worked, labor productivity and real wages. To account for the unconditional correlations between these variables, a mixture of shocks is required.     

Poole in the New Keynesian model

We study the properties of alternative central bank targeting procedures within the standard New Keynesian model. We find that Poole's famous insights concerning the output stabilization properties of money and interest rate targeting obtain when intertemporal substitution is low. And that output volatility rankings do not induce similar welfare rankings. Unlike the popular presumption, money targeting always fares better for money demand shocks. For fiscal shocks, money targeting does better for low and worse for high degree of intertemporal substitution. The opposite pattern obtains for supply shocks.     

Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey

This paper investigates changes to the macroeconomic transmission mechanism in Turkey following a major reform of monetary policy in the early 2000s. We use a Threshold VAR (TVAR) framework to test for and then estimate a model with endogenous transitions between regimes. We detect two regimes, with a clear transition between them in 2003–4. The pre-reform regime is characterized by high inflation, passive monetary policy and persistent responses to shocks. The post-reform regime is characterized by low inflation, active and credible monetary policy and markedly less persistent responses to shocks. Using a model that contains sufficient variables to capture diverse transmission mechanisms, working through the real exchange rate, domestic credit and monetary policy, we find evidence of sharp changes in transmission mechanisms. Post-reform, the response of Turkey to macroeconomic shocks has changed to be similar to those in other modern, market-orientated economies.     

Social Security, Optimality, and Equilibria in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy

Social security institutions implement intergenerational transfers and distribute risks over time. To compare various social security designs, we study an overlapping generations model with demographic shocks. Production takes place through a neoclassical production function subject to productivity shocks. We give a near characterization of optimal allocations. We study rational expectations equilibria when contributions are mandatory, based on labor and capital income. We also describe the equilibria of an economy with a voluntary pay-as-you-go social security fund, and show that they have a long-run optimality property. An example with Cobb–Douglas production and utility functions illustrates the results.     

The optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy

Abstract.  This paper studies how the nature of shocks affects the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a small open economy. Three classic rules, fixed exchange rates, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting are studied and ranked by comparing with the optimal monetary policy under commitment. We find that the ranking of the simple rules can be mapped to the terms-of-trade variability that the rule allows relative to what a particular shock optimally calls for. It turns out that inflation targeting dominates the other two rules under productivity or velocity shocks, whereas monetary targeting is the best performer under fiscal shocks.     

Macroeconomic fluctuations: Demand or supply, permanent or temporary?

We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand/aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies and the United States. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in these economies during the post-war era, and whether shocks of either type have been primarily temporary or permanent in nature. We find that permanent or temporary demand shocks have been the dominant source of variance in output growth in all six countries, but there is a less consistent pattern for inflation. Permanent supply shocks had the dominant influence on autocorrelations.     

Market concentration, macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy

This paper studies the effect of market structure and macroeconomic uncertainty on the transmission of monetary policy. We motivate our analysis with a simple model which predicts that: (1) investment and production in more concentrated sectors are more affected by demand shocks and (2) high uncertainty makes investment and production more sensitive to demand shocks. The empirical analysis estimates the effect of monetary shocks on sectoral output for different sectors in the US using a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. The results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions.     

A simple and flexible alternative to Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?

We model a monetary union where fiscal discretion generates excessive debt accumulation in steady state and inefficiently delayed debt adjustment following shocks. By setting a debt target and raising the political cost of deviating from the optimal pace of debt reversal¸ institutional design induces fiscal policymakers to implement unbiased responses to shocks. This is partly achieved by increasing the transparency of the decision-making process. We therefore call for more focused supervision tasks for the European Commission and for parliamentary discussion whenever a disagreement arises between the Commission and a national government.     

Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small open economy model

Abstract.  We set up a standard small open economy business cycle model driven by government spending shocks, neutral productivity (TFP) shocks, and investment-specific shocks. The model is calibrated to quarterly Canadian data and its predicted moments and sample paths are compared with their Canadian counterparts. We find that the model captures the dynamics in investment and in the trade balance better than special cases of the model where either one of the productivity shocks is omitted. More specifically, the model matches the variance of the trade balance-output ratio, its correlation with output and its autocorrelation. It also matches the output-investment correlation.     

Outside versus inside bonds: A Modigliani–Miller type result for liquidity constrained economies

When agents are liquidity constrained, two options exist – sell assets or borrow. We compare the allocations arising in two economies: in one, agents can sell government (outside) bonds and in the other they can borrow by issuing (inside) bonds. All transactions are voluntary, implying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt. We show that any allocation in the economy with inside bonds can be replicated in the economy with outside bonds but that the converse is not true. However, the optimal policy in each economy makes the allocations equivalent.     

Are Central Bank Preferences Asymmetric? A Comment

A recent paper by Ruge-Murcia (2004) on asymmetric central bank objectives provides a new perspective on the policy roots of inflation in developed economies. More precisely, the paper demonstrates that if the distribution of the supply shocks is normal, then the reduced-form solution for inflation implies a positive (or negative) relation between average inflation and the variance of shocks. We argue that the evidence offered in support of this hypothesis suffers from lack of identification because Phillips curve nonlinearity combined with quadratic central bank preferences yield the same reduced-form solution for inflation. If so, estimating reduced form for inflation will not be able to discriminate between these models. Yet they have quite different implications for policy. Other, structural, evidence is needed.     

A three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium

We develop a simple model featuring search frictions and a nondegenerate labor supply decision along the extensive margin. The model is a standard version of the neoclassical growth model with indivisible labor and idiosyncratic productivity shocks and frictions characterized by employment loss and employment opportunity arrival shocks. We argue that it is able to account for the key features of observed labor market flows for reasonable parameter values. Persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks play a key role in allowing the model to match the persistence of the employment and out of the labor force states found in individual labor market histories.     

Effects of Aspirations and Habits on the Distribution of Wealth

We analyze how the introduction of habits and aspirations affects the distribution of wealth when the labor productivity of individuals is subject to idiosyncratic shocks and when bequests arise from a joy‐of‐giving motive. In the presence of either bequests or aspirations, labor income shocks are transmitted intergenerationally, and this transmission, together with contemporaneous shocks, determines the distribution of wealth. We show that the introduction of aspirations (habits) decreases (increases) the average wealth, and increases (decreases) both its intragenerational variability and the degree of intergenerational mobility. Therefore, a distinction between aspirations and habits is relevant because they involve different implications for the distribution of wealth.