Using the extended innovation attributes framework and consumer personal characteristics as predictors of internet banking adoption

The presumed dominant role of usability attributes (ie usefulness and ease of use) in predicting consumer adoption of a technologically based innovation (eg internet banking — IB) is reexamined, by using an extended framework, which, apart from usability, incorporates the social and psychological aspects of the adoption process. Furthermore, given that IB has been around for almost a decade, it is high time to update the profile of the potential adopters. Results, underscore the role of social factors as predictors of potential IB adopters, whereas the demographic profile of future IB adopters displays important differences compared to that of those already using IB. Possible explanations are discussed, along with implication for practitioners and suggestions for future research.     

银行代收财政预算外资金系统

一、系统概述 我行开发的代收财政预算外资金系统分为两部分,第一部分是银行代收预算外资金系统,它是在我行新一代数据集中软件环境下开发的一个收费子系统,与民用电代收子系统及交警罚款代收子系统共同组成银行中间业务系统,该系统独立于新一代数据集中系统,利用我行各营业网点代理收取财政预算外资金.     

Security factors as linear combinations of economic variables

A new framework is proposed to find the best linear combinations of economic variables that optimally forecast security factors. In particular, we obtain such combinations from Chen et al. (Journal of Business 59, 383–403, 1986) five economic variables, and obtain a new GMM test for the APT which is more robust than existing tests. In addition, by using Fama and French's (1993) five factors, we test whether fewer factors are sufficient to explain the average returns on 25 stock portfolios formed on size and book-to-market. While inconclusive in-sample, a three-factor model appears to perform better out-of-sample than both four- and five-factor models.     

Interregional redistribution as a cure to the soft budget syndrome in federations

The soft budget syndrome is ubiquitous in federations. It emerges whenever a high tier in a fiscal system provides extra resources to a lower tier to prevent the latter from failing to reach a mutually agreeable predetermined target. Interregional income redistribution is also an endemic feature of most federations. We show that the center’s ability of making interregional transfers ex-ante and ex-post cures the soft budget syndrome whenever the center is perfectly informed ex post. Under these circumstances, the interregional transfer scheme makes it a dominant strategy for each regional government to truthfully reveal its privately held information ex-ante.      

Some alternative tests of forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates

The paper provides empirical analysis on the issue of forward premiums as predictors of future exchange depreciations. The need to specify an alternative to the null hypothesis, other than its complement is emphasized. Two such alternatives are considered: the random walk model and the possibility of excessive or insufficient exchange rate volatility to accord with the efficiency of exchange markets.     

Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators

This paper investigates whether macroeconomic variables can predict recessions in the stock market, i.e., bear markets. Series such as interest rate spreads, inflation rates, money stocks, aggregate output, unemployment rates, federal funds rates, federal government debt, and nominal exchange rates are evaluated. After using parametric and nonparametric approaches to identify recession periods in the stock market, we consider both in-sample and out-of-sample tests of the variables’ predictive ability. Empirical evidence from monthly data on the Standard & Poor’s S&P 500 price index suggests that among the macroeconomic variables we have evaluated, yield curve spreads and inflation rates are the most useful predictors of recessions in the US stock market, according to both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance. Moreover, comparing the bear market prediction to the stock return predictability has shown that it is easier to predict bear markets using macroeconomic variables.     

Option prices as predictors of stock prices: intraday adjustments to information releases

The purpose of this study is to analyse the evolution of payment behaviours by emphasizing the role of the regulation and the financial opening. We test whether the convergence process of payment technologies and regulations is propagated from upstream to downstream through the channel of standardized products, leading to the convergence of the demand for payment services. A test of conditional beta-convergence, relating to the use of five payment instruments, is performed on a panel of European countries. In general, results show evidence for convergence for all means of payment.     

Owner liability and financial reporting information as predictors of firm default in bank loans

We examine the effects of owner liability and non-accounting and financial accounting information on the probability of default as defined in Basel II in bank loan contracted by non listed firms. We model default as a function of owner liability and accounting and non-accounting information of non-listed firms, drawing on 43,117 annual accounts of 16,029 firms over a 7-year period. Our estimations based on mixed logistic regressions with random parameters show that the predicted default probability of full-liability firms is 0.72 times that of limited liability firms. The likelihood ratio test for omitted variables confirms the additional predictive ability of liability status over and above other non-accounting and financial accounting information. A Heckman self-selection model does not indicate sampling bias. The particular definition of default used in the study enables the findings to be generalizable across other institutional contexts.     

The characteristics of infrastructure as an investment class

There is an enormous need for infrastructure investment. Although institutional savings has shown strong growth in the OECD countries since the mid-2000s, only a small proportion of institutional assets is allocated to infrastructure. Relatively little is known about the characteristics and risk–return profiles of infrastructure assets, making institutional investors reluctant to step up investing in this type of asset. There is a wide heterogeneity in risk–return characteristics across sectors, regions, and stage of development, creating an uncertainty that explains why the flow of funds from institutional investors toward infrastructure does not reach its full potential. However, infrastructure provides significant diversification benefits that justify increased investment. Moreover, the financial crisis led to a growing interest in infrastructure as a tool for portfolio diversification among various asset classes. The goal of this paper is to review the characteristics of infrastructure as an investment class. The paper will be useful for academics looking for topics of research in the field, and will be of practical use to institutional investors considering infrastructure investment opportunities.     

Forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates and the efficiency of the foreign exchange market

The theory of informationally efficient markets (EMIT) is applied to the foreign exchange market and some of its operational implications are illustrated. The EMIT is joined with alternative models of the equilibrium return on the foreign exchange market: the Pure Expectations Hypothesis, the Modern Theory and tentative formulations of return as a function of risk. The alternative joint Hypotheses are rejected by the data but this does not necessarily imply the rejection of EMIT. The rejection may be due to the inadequacies of the equilibrium return models used, notwithstanding the fact that the risk premium has been captured, to a certain extent, in the empirical tests and the evidence against the EMIT weakened.     

The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances

This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges between 0.23% and 1.4% of GDP depending on the country group. Developing countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than advanced economies. Based on these findings, our policy conclusions point to the enhanced need to reach and maintain sound fiscal positions given that climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.     

The effect of rankings on honesty in budget reporting

We conduct an experiment to investigate the effect of rankings, which are pervasive in practice, on the honesty of managers’ budget reports, which is important for sound decision making in organizations. Participants in our experiment are ranked in one of four ways: (1) firm profit, (2) own compensation, (3) both firm profit and own compensation, and (4) randomly, which serves as our baseline condition. None of the rankings affect participants’ remuneration. Compared to our baseline (random rankings) setting, where participants indeed exhibit honesty concerns, we find that rankings based on firm profit significantly increase honesty and that rankings based on own compensation significantly decrease honesty. Participants who received both rankings were significantly more honest than participants in the own compensation rankings condition. We did not, however, find significant differences in honesty between the both rankings and firm profit rankings conditions. As such, participants in the both rankings condition seemed to focus more on the firm profit metric than on the financially congruent own compensation metric. We also find that our results are stable across periods, suggesting that the effects of rankings neither increased nor dissipated over time. We discuss the contributions of our study and concomitant findings to accounting research and practice.     

Comparison of body mass index and waist circumference as predictors of all-cause mortality in a male insured lives population

Obesity assessed by body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased mortality risk, but there is uncertainty about whether BMI is the best way to measure obesity. Waist circumference (WC) has been proposed as a better measure. The Swiss Re BMI/WC Study was conducted to determine whether BMI or WC is a better predictor of future all-cause mortality in a large male insurance population. Using Cox proportional hazard models, risk ratios for increasing BMI and WC were 1.033 (P < .001) and 1.027 (P < .001), respectively. Risk ratios for obesity defined by BMI > or = 30 kg/m2 and WC > or = 40 inches were 1.33 (P < .001) and 1.20 (P = .002), respectively. In this study, BMI and WC are essentially equivalent in their ability to predict mortality risk in a male insurance population. Obesity, measured by either BMI or WC, has important underwriting and pricing implications.     

Credit risk management at retail in Mexico: An econometric improvement in the selection of variables and changes in their characteristics

The early prediction of bad debtors for revolving credits in Mexico is a relevant issue today. The credit behavior econometric model proposed considers the changes in the characteristics of the consolidated accredited and provides better results than those obtained with the methodology utilized by the CNBV on provision matters. The results obtained show that the possibility of replacing the current model, minimizing the expected loss and increasing the ROA per financial institution at a national level by 2.20%, complies with the methodological criteria and the statistical tests in accordance with the Compiled Banking Regulation and Basel II guidelines on credit risk issues.     

软件工程开发预算功能点分析法概述

近年来,银行科技部门出于开发大型金融应用系统的需要,与软件企业的合作日益增多.在大型金融应用系统的可行性分析、企划立项和开发初期常常涉及到系统工程量的预算问题.掌握第一手精确工程量对于系统后续的资金预算、人员配置、设备周转都至关重要,直接影响到系统合作开发的成功与否.但是,在系统开发的早期,由于存在诸如运行环境、开发语言、调试速度、集成难度等大量的不确定因素,对系统进行彻底有效的预算几乎是不可能的,凭借部门主管的经验也往往是不可靠的.如何既能得到精确的结果又能摒除不确定因素的影响呢?工程师A·J·Albrecht提出了功能点FP(Function Point)的概念,并建立了工程预算功能点分析法FPA( Function Point Analysis ).     

中国工商银行新一代公文信息系统的架构及特点

一、系统概述。中国工商银行新一代公文信息系统是工商银行为了适应“下管一级、监控两级”的新型管理体制要求而研发的，该系统运用现代信息技术来规范办公流程和管理模式，充分发挥了现代商业银行的办公职能。系统按照功能划分为三个部分：电子公文传输、电子公文流转(审批)、综合档案管理。     

Educational predictors of professional pay and performance

This paper reports the results of a study which examined the relationship between several educational indices, and the pay and performance of professional accountants. The findings indicated that there was little relationship between educational background and subsequent on-the-job performance. With respect to pay, the results indicated that, at the entry level, salary was primarily a function of the level of educational attainment and the quality of the institution attended. No relationship was found between academic performance and public accounting compensation.     

Fiscal severity and the choice of budget gap closing strategies

The great recession of 2008 forced US local governments to pursue a series of measures to maintain a balanced budget. The authors investigated local governments’ response to the great recession with a focus on Florida, where a crash in the housing market led to a severe erosion of the property tax base. Following the classic cutback management theory, the authors examine how the severity of fiscal stress affected the choice of budget-balancing strategies by Florida’s local governments. The severity of fiscal stress was found to affect not only the number of budget gap closing strategies but also the pattern of adoption of these strategies consistent with the administrative response model.