Personal Taxation and Investment Incentives in a Small Open Economy

A simple portfolio model is used to investigate the effects of personal taxes on real investment incentives in a small open economy with large and small firms. When shares in large firms can be traded internationally and their rate of return is exogenously determined on international equity markets, a tax on the return on riskless bonds will induce a portfolio shift from bonds to shares in large firms. This shift reduces the impact of the bond tax on the required rate of return on shares in domestically owned small firms, provided that returns on shares in small and large firms are positively correlated. The total impact of the bond tax may even change from a negative to a counter-intuitive positive one if the “beta” between the returns on small and large firms is above unity. A personal tax on equity returns does in general have an ambiguous impact on the pre-tax rate of return requirement of domestically owned firms. An exogenous rate of return on large company shares is shown to enhance the possibility for the equity tax to reduce the required pre-tax rate of return in small domestic firms. A sufficient condition for a negative relationship is again that the “beta” between the returns in small and large firms is above unity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Import Tariff and Exchange Rate Transmission in a Small Open Economy

ABSTRACT

We present a small open economy DSGE model with internal and external sticky prices in an incomplete exchange rate pass-through environment. Import tariff is included as another variable that affects the law of one price. The model is calibrated for the Brazilian economy, and the responses of endogenous variables to shocks in import tariff, aggregate supply, monetary policy, and foreign interest are analyzed. The long-run effect of the first shock is deterioration in the terms of trade because the exchange rate appreciation following this shock offsets the initial effect of the increase in import tariff.     

Economic Policy and the Great Depression in a Small Open Economy

We use a standard New Keynesian model of a small open economy, extended to include a government sector, to investigate the Great Depression in Australia. A calibrated model with a fixed exchange rate regime, similar to the gold standard, does well in replicating the dynamics of output during the interwar period. We then ask to what extent shocks to the economy would have been moderated by adopting modern‐day policies. We find that if policymakers had adopted a flexible exchange rate with a Taylor rule policy that output fluctuations during the Great Depression would have been moderated by up to 25%. Changes in government fiscal policy would also have moderated output fluctuations, but by a slightly smaller amount. Overall, we find that improved policy could have reduced output fluctuations by almost 50%.     

Capital Bubbles,Interest Rates,and Investment in a Small Open Economy

We model a bubble in a productive asset (capital) on an explosive path, which diverges from the fundamental equilibrium and bursts with a positive probability. When the bubble grows, the small open economy borrows from the the world economy to finance investment and production, and banks charge the risk of the bubble bursting as an interest rate spread to debtors. Consequently, the interest rate spread widens as loans are increasingly backed by the bubble. When the bubble bursts, defaults cause a sudden stop of credit inflow from the world economy, investment falls, and the interest rate spread vanishes.     

The Impact of COVID-19 on Share Prices in the UK*

The spread of COVID-19, and international measures to contain it, are having a major impact on economic activity in the UK. In this paper, we describe how this impact has varied across industries, using data on share prices of firms listed on the London Stock Exchange, and how well targeted government support for workers and companies is in light of this.     

开放经济下我国货币需求长期稳定性研究

本文利用我国1996—2011年的月度数据,分别使用Johansen协整检验与Engle—Granger两步法,对传统货币需求模型、开放条件下的货币需求模型以及引入制度因素的货币需求模型进行实证检验,研究货币需求的长期稳定性及各因素对货币需求的影响,建立货币需求模型,对于提高我国货币政策的调控效率具有重要意义。     

数字经济对中国劳动力资源配置效率的影响

选取省级面板数据,通过静态面板OLS和动态面板GMM方法检验数字经济对中国劳动力资源配置效率的影响。结果发现:数字经济的发展从总体上提高了中国劳动力资源配置效率,但是这一结果在区域间存在着显著差异。从东、中、西部地区划分来看,东部地区数字经济发展对于劳动力资源配置效率的影响最为显著;从南、北地区划分来看,则是北方地区更为显著。鉴此,我国应加快建设均等化数字基础设施,加强多样化数字设备科学应用,全方位提升劳动者数字技能。     

Equity Returns and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies

This is the first paper in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium literature to match key business cycle moments and long‐run equity returns in a small open economy with production. These results are achieved by introducing four modifications to a standard real business cycle model: (i) borrowing and lending costs are imposed to increase the volatility of the marginal rate of substitution over time, (ii) capital adjustment costs are assumed to make equity returns more volatile, (iii) GHH preferences are employed to smooth consumption, and (iv) a working capital constraint to generate countercyclical trade balances. Our results are based on data from Argentina, Brazil, and Chile.     

Dollarization,Seigniorage, and Prices: The Case of North Korea

This study employs a general equilibrium monetary search model to examine the effects of the recent dollarization in North Korea on seigniorage and prices. Maximum seigniorage is generated at a high rate of money growth when dollarization is mild. However, under a high degree of dollarization seigniorage declines sharply when the money growth rate is high. Accordingly, seigniorage can be increased by de-dollarizing the economy through lowering the money growth rate. This finding implies that the post-2013 price stabilization may be a result of the restriction on printing of money with the aim of increasing seigniorage. This finding also recognizes that the North Korean authorities have little room for maneuver on monetary policy under the conditions of widespread dollarization.     

影响我国农村经济增长因素的VAR模型分析

文章基于VAR模型,运用协整关系检验、误差修正模型以及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对1983—2012年的时间序列数据进行了检验,验证了农村金融发展水平、农产品价格以及农作物受灾比例对农村经济增长的贡献程度。实证结果表明以上变量具有长期的协整关系,且金融发展水平与经济增长具有双向格兰杰因果关系、农产品价格是农村经济增长的格兰杰原因。并在此研究基础上提出了发展农村经济的几点建议。     

Labor Markets and Adjustment in Open Asian Economies: The Republic of Korea and Malaysia

This article deals with the adjustment following external shocksin two open Asian economies: the Republic of Korea and Malaysia.There were important differences in the economic structure ofthe two countries as well as significant differences in theway external events produced "crises" that interrupted theirdynamic economic growth. Detailed analyses of economic cyclesin the two decades preceding 1987–88 show that the behaviorof factor markets, particularly the markets for labor and foreignexchange, helped Korea to adjust quickly to the shocks but inMalaysia actually caused the crisis to deepen. For economies heavily dependent on exports, the unit cost oflabor in dollars is of central importance as an index of thecompetitiveness of exports and hence of their ability to mounta sustained recovery after a difficult period. Accordingly,the heart of the analysis is the determination of the unit costof labor and the factors affecting its change throughout thecycles. Concentration on this critical variable helps to spotlightthe crucial differences in the factor markets of the two economies.     

The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors

This paper addresses the relationship between productivity growth in Polish manufacturing sectors and forces stemming from trade integration with the European Union. Empirical analysis (1995-2006) is based on sector-level bilateral data concerning both domestic (Polish) and foreign (partner countries from the enlarged European Union) markets' characteristics and their degree of openness. The main results indicate that, both in the short run and the long run, an increase in domestic sectors' openness exerts a positive effect on productivity growth in Poland (the opposite effect is exhibited by foreign sectors' openness). In addition, expansion in relative size of Polish sectors versus foreign ones boosts domestic labor productivity growth.     

An Open Economy DSGE Model with Search-and-Matching Frictions: The Case of Hungary

This article builds and estimates a medium scale, small open economy DSGE model augmented with search-and-matching frictions in the labor market, and different wage setting behavior in new and existing jobs. The model is estimated using Hungarian data between 2001–2008. We find that: (i) the inclusion of matching frictions significantly improves the model’s empirical fit; (ii) the extent of new hires wage rigidity is quantitatively important for key macro variables; (iii) labor market shocks do not play an important role in inflation dynamics, but the structure of the labor market influences the monetary transmission mechanism.     

Intergenerational and International Welfare Leakages of a Product Subsidy in a Small Open Economy

A dynamic overlapping-generations model of a small open economy with monopolistic competition in the goods market is constructed. Lump-sum tax-financed product subsidization boosts output and employment both in the impact period and in the new steady state. The real exchange rate depreciates in the long run but the impact effect is ambiguous. If the labour supply effect is weak and the economy is not very open, the exchange rate appreciates at impact. The policy has important intergenerational distribution effects. Old existing generations gain more than younger existing generations as well as future generations. The bond policy which neutralizes the intergenerational inequities allows the computation of an optimal product subsidy which depends positively on the extent of the domestic scale economies and negatively on the degree of openness of the economy.     

Evolving Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: An Estimated Markov Switching DSGE Model for the UK

This paper investigates the possibility of shifts in the UK economy using a Markov switching open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We find overwhelming evidence to reject the hypothesis that the deep structural parameters of the underlying structural model had stayed constant throughout the sample period and there is significant changes to the volatility of the structural shocks. Counterfactual experiments based on the model with the best empirical fit indicate that the change in the policy rule as well as changes to the volatility of the structural shocks over the sample period are crucial features in explaining UK’s macroeconomic performance.     

Residence-Based Capital Taxation in a Small Open Economy: Why Information is Voluntarily Exchanged and Why it is Not

The issue of capital tax competition is viewed to be unproblematic if residence-based capital-taxation exists. However, the sustainability of residence-based capital taxation depends on the exchange of information about foreign financial investments between tax authorities. This paper analyzes the incentives of tax authorities to voluntarily provide information. We show that voluntary information exchange is an equilibrium in a standard small-country model of tax competition, whereas it may not be an equilibrium when the size of the financial sector has a positive impact on the wage structure of an economy.     

Tax Setting in a Federal System: The Case of Personal Income Taxation in Canada

In a decentralised tax system, the effects of tax policies enacted by one government are not confined to its own jurisdiction. First, if both the regional and the federal levels of government co-occupy the same fields of taxation, tax rate increases by one layer of government will reduce taxes collected by the other. Second, if the tax base is mobile, tax rate increases by one regional government will raise the amount of taxes collected by other regional governments. These sources of fiscal interdependence are called in the literature vertical and horizontal tax externalities, respectively. Third, as Smart (1998) shows, if equalisation transfers are present, an increase in the standard equalisation tax rate provides incentives to raise taxes to the receiving provinces. A way to check the empirical relevance of these hypotheses is to test for the existence of interactions between the regional tax rate, on the one hand, and the federal tax rate, the tax rate set by competing regions, and the standard equalisation tax rate, on the other hand. Following this approach, this paper estimates provincial tax setting functions with data on Canadian personal income taxation for the period 1982–1996. We find a significant positive response of provincial tax rates to changes in the federal income tax rate, the tax rates of competing provinces, and the standard equalisation rate (only for receiving provinces). We also find that the reaction to horizontal competition is stronger in the provinces that do not receive equalisation transfers.     

The Determinants of Corporate Trade Credit Policies in a Bank‐dominated Financial Environment: the Case of Finnish Small Firms

This paper examines trade credit policies of small firms operating in a bank‐dominated environment (Finland). We find that creditworthiness and access to capital markets are important determinants of trade credit extended by sellers. The level of purchases is positively correlated with the level of accounts payable. Larger and older firms and firms with strong internal financing are less likely to use trade credit, whereas firms with a high ratio of current assets to total assets, and firms subject to loan restructurings use it more. Negative loan decisions by financial intermediaries increase and a close bank‐borrower relationship decreases the probability that a firm does not take advantage of trade credit discounts.     

Why Capital Income Taxes Survive in Open Economies: The Role of Multinational Firms

This paper discusses the role of multinational firms and double taxation treaties for corporate income taxation in open economies. We show that it is optimal for a small open economy to levy positive corporate income taxes if multinational firms are taxed according to the full taxation after deduction system or the foreign tax credit system. Positive corporate taxes also occur in the asymmetric case where some countries apply the exemption system and others apply the tax credit system. If all countries apply the exemption system, the optimal corporate income tax is zero. We also show that, under tax competition, corporate income taxes are not necessarily too low from the perspective of the economy as a whole. While the undertaxation result is confirmed for the case of the exemption system, tax rates may also be inefficiently high if the deduction or the credit systems are applied.