经济视角下东北亚货币金融合作分析

区域货币金融合作是区域经济合作的重要内容。本文以中日韩俄四国为例从区域经济开放程度、货币政策和财政政策协调程度、外部危机共御程度三方面对东北亚货币金融合作的经济因素进行分析,指出区域开放程度反映了四国参与区域货币金融合作所能带来的客观优势,货币和财政政策的协调程度反映了四国参与区域货币金融合作需要面对的政策成本,外部危机共御程度反映了四国参与货币金融合作的契机和条件。     

The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions

The 1997–1999 East Asian crisis is an interesting case for studying the determinants of distress and closure of financial institutions. Of a sample of 283 financial institutions from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, 120 experienced distress, and by July 1999, 38 were closed. We find that traditional, CAMEL-type financial data for 1996 help predict distress and closure. Connections—with industrial groups or influential families—increased the likelihood of distress, however, suggesting that supervisors had granted selective prior forbearance from prudential regulations. Since closure was more, not less, likely with connections, the closure processes themselves appear transparent. We also find evidence of too big to fail policies.     

The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors

This paper addresses the relationship between productivity growth in Polish manufacturing sectors and forces stemming from trade integration with the European Union. Empirical analysis (1995-2006) is based on sector-level bilateral data concerning both domestic (Polish) and foreign (partner countries from the enlarged European Union) markets' characteristics and their degree of openness. The main results indicate that, both in the short run and the long run, an increase in domestic sectors' openness exerts a positive effect on productivity growth in Poland (the opposite effect is exhibited by foreign sectors' openness). In addition, expansion in relative size of Polish sectors versus foreign ones boosts domestic labor productivity growth.     

跨国企业的规模扩张与东亚经贸关系的紧密化——中国对外贸易增长的国际背景

中国加入WTO后,外贸出口急速增长,有关各方也对中国外贸出口的激增产生了不信任感。中国出口增长的原因,除经济成长、贸易政策等内部因素外,在华跨国企业的生产—出口的增加是引起中国外贸出口增长的重要外部因素。同时,跨国企业的贸易活动促进了外资来源国与贸易伙伴国之间的一致性,进而推动了区域经贸一体化进程。基于中国与主要贸易伙伴—主要外资来源国是互补型的贸易关系,中国的出口增长对于这些国家来说是安全的。     

The Political Economy of Deposit Insurance

This paper uses a political economy framework to analyze cross-country differences in deposit insurance coverage. It finds supporting evidence of the significance of private interest theories in explaining coverage of deposit insurance. Deposit insurance coverage is significantly higher in countries where poorly capitalized banks dominate the market and in countries where depositors are poorly educated. The analysis does not find that coverage is significantly related to political-institutional variables, such as the degree of democracy or restraints on the executive, or to proxies for the general level of institutional development, such as per capita income or property rights. These results provide evidence in support of the private interest view, according to which risky banks lobby for extensive coverage.     

The Effects of Regional Integration in Central Asia

Since gaining independence, Central Asian countries have created and joined many regional economic organizations. It is not clear whether these organizations, especially the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), have boosted integration of this region. In this paper, I conclude that exports of Central Asian countries have benefited from integration but EurAsEC has failed to live up to the expectations of its member states. This is due mainly to the different levels of economic development, defective industrial structures, and poor marketization in EurAsEC member states. At present, an initial market-based trade integration network has formed in Central Asia and has had excellent accomplishments, but the governments of Central Asian countries have still not realized the network's function and advantage.     

地域文化资源融入高校思政课教学的价值分析

地域文化资源作为地方传统、生活历史和精神观念的结晶,对思政课教学具有重要价值。文章以黑龙江八一农垦大学为例分析了地域文化资源融入高校思政课教学的可行性和必要性,探寻了地域文化资源在高校思政课教学中的四个价值,提出了地域文化资源与思政课教学结合的三个有效途径。     

An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is observed to be a predominant form of capital flows to emerging economies, especially when they are liquidity-constrained internationally during a global financial crisis. The financial aspects of FDI are the focus of this paper. We analyze the problem of channelling domestic savings into productive investment in the presence of asymmetric information between the managing owners of firms and other portfolio stakeholders. We explore the role played by FDI in reviving equity-financed capital investment for economies plagued by such information problems. In the presence of information asymmetry, the paper identifies, however, how FDI gives rise to foreign overinvestment as well as domestic undersaving. The gains from trade argument (applied to intertemporal trade) is re-examined in this case of informational-asymmetry-driven FDI. We show that the gains could be sizable when the domestic credit market is either under-developed or failing as a result of a financial crisis. But with a well-functioning domestic credit market, the gains turn into losses. Surprisingly, capital may flow into the country even when the autarkic marginal productivity of capital in the domestic economy falls short of the world rate of interest. In such a situation, capital should have efficiently flown out rather than in, and FDI is a social loss-generating phenomenon.     

长三角经济一体化背景下的区域金融协调发展研究

文章在长三角经济一体化迅速发展的大背景下,分析了区域金融协调发展的内涵、长三角区域金融协调发展的现状、金融业发展演进的空间结构特点以及制约区域金融协调发展的突出问题,最后探讨了促进长三角区域金融协调发展的机制并提出了推进区域金融协调发展的几点建议。     

Regional Financial Arrangements: A Survey of the Literature and Recent Developments

This article summarizes recent studies on regional financial arrangements (RFAs) and examines the role played by global multilaterals and RFAs in emerging crises. We also review the major RFAs with regard to their basic organizational structure, activities, legal framework, and lending facilities. Finally, we discuss the attributes needed for the sustainable development of RFAs and we look at how they can expand their role for economic cooperation in the associated regions.     

我国区域经济的差异性及其协调发展的途径

区域经济差距的扩大影响了国民经济的健康发展，这种差异性是由多方面的原因造成的。因此，以科学发展观为指导，在统筹区域经济协调发展的过程中要建立新的区域合作机制，培育新的区域经济增长极，推进区域产业的转移和整合。     

经济一体化与金融区域化--长江三角洲经济发展中的金融联动策略研究

在21世纪的中国经济发展蓝图上,经济一体化与金融区域化将是必然趋势.长江三角洲地区作为目前中国最具经济发展潜力的区域,其金融整体协调联动对于该地区乃至全国经济发展都具有重大意义.本文立足于寻求长三角地区金融联动的有效策略,深入分析了该地区经济发展的现状和金融资本流动的实际,通过对长三角15个城市综合经济实力以及当地工商银行经营质态的翔实比较论证,剖析其优、劣势所在,探索应如何紧紧抓住长三角经济一体化进程中的机遇,主动加强与沪浙两地分行合作、交流的近期和中长期联动策略,共同推进工商银行在本区域的新发展.     

区域经济一体化背景下战略性R＆D合作的理论研究

20世纪80年代战略性贸易理论的兴起,为国际贸易政策的制定提供了新的指导思想。该领域早期的研究主要集中在一国战略性贸易政策的实施条件、政策手段以及战略性产业的选择上,尚未涉及多边战略性贸易政策的合作。随着区域经济一体化的深入,成员国之间如何在制度层面上深化合作及其对社会福利的影响是一个很有价值的课题。为此,本文构建一个两阶段的博弈模型对双边战略性R＆D合作补贴政策效果进行分析。研究发现,当国际间企业参与R＆D合作并完全共享技术成果以及政府实行联合补贴时,可以取得优于R＆D竞争的市场效果。     

The Political Economy of Volatility Dynamics in the Hong Kong Stock Market

Despite its obvious importance, little empirical research has examined the impact of political risk on stock market volatility. This paper uses data on the Hong Kong stock market over a long sample period to investigate whether political risk has induced regime shifts in stock market volatility. Regime shifts are modelled via a Markov switching EGARCH model that allows for regime-dependent volatility asymmetry. We find strong evidence of regime shifts in conditional volatility as well as significant volatility asymmetry in high volatility periods. Major political uncertainties were reflected in a switch to the high-volatility regime. However, contrary to popular perceptions, we find no evidence that the Hong Kong stock market has become persistently more volatile since the start of Sino-British political negotiations in 1982.     

The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy

Several twin crises occurred in the Turkish economy in the last three decades. In this article, we aim to analyze the link between banking and currency crises and to illustrate the essential determinants of these twin crises by developing a multivariate logit model for the period 1990–2013. The empirical findings show that Turkish currency crises are mainly due to excessive fiscal deficits, rises in short-term external debt, overvaluation of Turkish lira, and external adverse shocks; banking crises are primarily caused by excessive money supplies and bank short positions. The empirical findings also indicate that banking crises lead to currency crises, and vice versa.     

基于区域经济的公司绩效研究——对山东、浙江、广东上市公司的对比分析

上市公司通常被认为是区域的经济“领头羊”，其绩效表现也具有区域经济“晴雨表”效应。但山东板块、浙江板块和广东板块上市公司绩效与三省区域经济增长却呈现负相关关系。经济分权化及其企业行为异化导致了上市公司整体绩效弱势和“领头羊”效应缺失，而结构失衡是上市公司绩效与区域经济背离的关键因素。因此，优化上市公司股权结构和治理机制，调整上市公司的结构布局，保持上市公司与区域经济的动态平衡，是提升上市公司绩效，发挥其“晴雨表”效应的重要举措。     

数字经济促进农村产业融合的影响机制与实证检验

基于熵值法和主成分分析法分别测度的各省份农村产业融合指数和各省份数字经济发展指数,从技术创新和创业活跃度视角检验了数字经济助推我国农村产业融合的效应和机制。实证结果表明：数字经济能够显著地促进农村产业融合,提升技术创新水平和创业活跃度,是促进农村产业融合的重要机制;异质性分析发现,东部地区、南方地区的数字经济对农村产业融合的促进作用更为明显,高经济发展水平、高教育水平地区的数字经济对农村产业融合的促进作用更大。     

文化何以成为经济——兼论文化生产力

在当今文化与经济共生共融的时代背景下,文化生产力成为影响经济社会发展的重要资源和力量。文化以产业化的形式成为国民经济的重要支柱产业,文化以精神力量和生产力的形式对经济发展产生举足轻重的作用。当今国际社会,国家间的竞争更加激烈。从总体来看,这种竞争集中体现为综合国力的竞争,综合国力的竞争又体现在经济实力和科技实力的竞争上,而其背后实质却是文化的竞争,这也成为当今国际竞争的新态势。     

Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia

In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high-yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role.     

New development: The evolution of Welsh devolution

The reliance on consumer choice to drive improvements in public services is at the centre of policy debates in the UK and elsewhere. However, the discourse of consumerism occurs in the midst of a quagmire as to whether users of public services can legitimately be considered as customers, citizens or co-producers, while the existing evidence on how far they assume the role of public service consumers is largely ignored. This article discusses research on users' attitudes to choice in health, education and social services in the UK, the European Union and the USA. Provision of public services is rarely about acquiring products for pure consumption, but more about providers and users jointly addressing essential social and human needs. The author argues for an alternative conception of public service provision going beyond the limitations of consumerism, although some users are more likely to choose certain public services over others (for example schools rather than health services). However, the evidence presented disproves the view that users of public services will act as discerning consumers in the market-place.