外刊文摘

全球涌动黄金热黄金热"高烧"不退。从中国到中东,投资黄金的新型工具在发展中国家遍地开花。对于黄金这种最受人们推崇的投资品而言,市场格局正在发生着变化。投资黄金的大门向一群经验全无的     

投资理财不熟不做

2012年,从全球到中国都将面临更加复杂的形势。业内专家指出,2012年投资应以稳健为主,同时规避高风险投资;投资策略则应注重不同期限投资品的配比,长短兼顾。专业人士认为,就投资领域而言,可重点关注黄金、债券、保险和银行理财等。     

王志斌:金价或面临两三年调整

勇敢的"中国大妈"给本轮黄金大跌平添了几分戏剧色彩。黄金还适宜作为一种投资品吗,在当前的市场情况下应采取什么投资策略?本刊记者采访了恒泰大通黄金投资有限公司总裁王志斌。在王志斌看来,具备以下4大条件的投资品才是适宜投资的。一是该投资品所在的市场要符合三公原则。二是该投资品在金融市场的认可程度高,     

张言志:兴趣投资,专业理财

风情万种的葡萄酒从6000年前的古波斯缓缓走来,低调奢华。华光璀璨的今天,她妖娆依旧。是什么赋予了它神奇的魅力,它如何与中国投资者结缘?本刊记者采访了法国波尔多JP莫意克中国区首席代表张言志,听他为大家介绍关于葡萄酒的投资之法。因保值而得盛宠投资界有一个SWAG的说法,S代表白银,W代表葡萄酒,A代表艺术品,G代表黄金。在这4类投资品中,白银、黄金、艺术品都是非快速消费品,随着     

中国黄金市场风险来源、特征及规避方法分析

在中国2011年CPI高涨的情况,黄金作为保值避险的投资品受到了中国广大投资者的热烈追捧,价格一再创下新高,但是黄金无论是作为商品还是投资品,都充满了各式各样的风险,本文在分析我国黄金市场风险来源的前提下,利用实证数据对黄金市场风险的特征进行了刻画,得出了黄金市场风险规避的建议。     

中国黄金市场风险来源、特征及规避方法分析

在中国2011年CPI高涨的情况,黄金作为保值避险的投资品受到了中国广大投资者的热烈追捧,价格一再创下新高,但是黄金无论是作为商品还是投资品,都充满了各式各样的风险,本文在分析我国黄金市场风险来源的前提下,利用实证数据对黄金市场风险的特征进行了刻画,得出了黄金市场风险规避的建议。     

傅建华:打造浦发银行强大的综合竞争力

从上海银行到浦发银行,一个华丽转身,短短两年,傅建华行长交给市场一份优秀的答卷.     

李小加:港交所首位"非港人"CEO

16岁,他是渤海湾采油平台上的一个皮肤黝黑的采油工人;48岁,他已成为世界著名投资银行摩根大通的中国区总裁.32年间,他从一个普通的采油工人,成长为一个在全球资本市场叱咤风云的投资银行家,这期间他还从事过新闻记者、美国执业律师这些看上去没有任何关联的职业.最近,他又完成了人生的一次华丽转身--放弃每年以亿元计的收入而转投港交所,并成为香港证券交易所第一位"非港人"CEO!     

区别房地产保障品与投资品属性——从REITS试点出发规范发展房地产投资品市场

最近,我一直在想一个问题,房地产行业为什么成为众矢之的？我没有立场去为谁辩护,只是客观的从人文哲学到经济金融思索了一遍。大体想到了两个层面的原因：首先,衣食住行基本需求中有住房,股票、黄金、房地产市场等投资需求中有住房,可见住房是目前基本生活需求和投资需求的交集地带;其次,房地产作为投资品又不同于股票、黄金等,还停留在单笔交易门槛高、地域性较强的原始交易阶段,     

货币政策、消费品和投资品通货膨胀——基于金融加速器视角

本文建立一个包含消费品和投资品生产的两部门新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并且引入金融加速器以分析货币政策对消费品和投资品通货膨胀的影响机制,同时使用1999Q1至2015Q4的中国宏观经济数据对模型进行贝叶斯估计。估计结果表明,两个部门的菲利普斯曲线都具有较高的价格粘性。外部融资溢价对两个部门企业投资的影响存在异质性,投资品部门的金融加速器效应更加明显。脉冲响应分析表明货币政策扩张时,投资品部门的产出和通胀膨胀上升幅度比消费品部门更大。理论模型的脉冲响应与VAR实证分析得到的经验事实相一致。金融摩擦导致的消费品和投资品部门需求结构的异质性是解释货币政策对两个部门影响差异的关键。数值模拟分析发现金融加速器机制主要改变货币政策对投资品产出和通货膨胀的影响,对消费品部门影响改变较小。方差分解结果表明加总技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击和货币政策冲击是经济波动的主要来源。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.