The origin and diffusion of shocks to regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002

This paper is about the behavior of regional interest rates in the United States from 1880 to 2002. The main concern is with the shocks to regional rates. Where did they originate? How did they diffuse? How did the pattern change over time? We show that in the late nineteenth century the main source of shocks to rates on the periphery were shocks originating on the periphery itself. This pattern continued through World War I and the Great Depression. After World War II, however, the importance of disturbances on the periphery diminished and shocks to rates in the Eastern financial centers became the main source of fluctuations in all regions.     

The European exchange rate mechanism and the European monetary union

Summary This article addresses two central questions related to the prospects of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe: first, is the current exchange rate mechanism viable in the transition stage to EMU or in the period to come if the EMU should be postponed? Second, is a monetary union necessary in an economically fully integrated European Union or would the current or an alternative exchange rate mechanism suffice an integrating Europe? The article reviews the arguments for and against monetary union, the history of European monetary integration, the theoretical and empirical insights into the functioning of targets zones, and the likely developments and prospects for the EMU.The author wishes to thank Martin M.G. Fase and Simon K. Kuipers for their most helpful comments on a previous version of this article.     

A comparison of the Japanese and U.S. business cycles

This paper constructs a consistent set of quarterly Japanese data for the 1960–2002 sample period and compares properties of the Japanese and U.S. business cycles. We document some important differences in the adjustment of labor input between the two countries. In Japan most of the adjustment is in hours per worker of males and females and also in employment of females. In the U.S. most of the adjustment is in employment of both males and females. We formulate, estimate, and analyze a model that makes the distinction between the intensive and extensive margin and allows for gender differerences in labor supply. A weak empirical correlation between hours per worker and employment in Japanese data is a puzzle for our theory.     

An experiment with multiple currencies: the American monetary system from 1838–60

This paper finds that the combination of state regulated bank notes and deposits acting as the principal form of money and heterogeneous bank laws in the antebellum United States led to a loosely fixed exchange rate system where states were capable of exercising limited independent monetary policy. It finds that bank note circulation and deposits moved differently across the states, and based on narrative evidence, it seems states were aware of their ability to affect the money supply of their economies and that some states did in fact try to change their banking systems to do so.     

Bank cooperation and banking policy in a monetary union: A political-economy perspective on EMU

Why do large European banks lobby for monetary union? We show in a game-theoretic model that montary union can trigger a change in the structure of the market for international banking transactions with asymmetric effects on profits: large banks are induced to cooperate internationally and gain from European Monetary Union (EMU), while small banks are likely to lose. Monetary union can be interpreted as a device for large banks to push small banks out of the market for cross-border financial services.     

On the hump-shaped output effect of monetary policy in an open economy

Results of empirical research have revealed a characteristic hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output: The effect of the shock builds to a peak after several months and then gradually dies out. We analyze, in the context of a ‘new open economy macroeconomics’ model, factors that imply a hump-shaped response of output to a monetary policy shock. We find that a hump-shaped effect of a monetary policy shock on output is likely to result if the model features a “catching-up with the Joneses” effect, pricing-to-market behavior of firms, and imperfect international financial market integration. We thank two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.     

The synchronization of business cycles across the European Community

The recent adoption of the Delors Report brings into question the extent of the EC integration and the costs to individual countries of continued integration. In this paper we address this question by comparing EC countries to non-EC countries, specifically comparing the extent to which domestic policies are coordinated. We find a strong coordination between EC countries as compared to non-EC countries. However, Italy shows up as a persistent outlier in the EC, requiring a reformulation of domestic policy goals if continued integration is desired.     

Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal

This paper uses a monetary model of exchange market pressure to examine the impact of monetary policy on the Nepalese exchange rate. Using a recently developed estimation technique, impulse indicator saturation, along with general-to-specific modeling, we find that a contractionary monetary policy results in easing of pressure on the exchange rate. The robustness of the results is confirmed using misspecification tests.     

A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan

A substantial number of papers have proposed to allow for more exchange rate flexibility of the Chinese yuan. But few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. In contrast to prior studies, we allow for regime shifts in the impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy. The results show that the exchange rate had a substantial impact on Japanese monetary policy in periods of appreciation. This implies that repeated attempts to soften the appreciation pressure by interest rate cuts have led Japan into the liquidity trap. The economic policy conclusion for China is to keep the exchange rate pegged (to the dollar).     

Implications of Monetary Union for Catching-up Member States

We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilization in catching-up participating countries. We allow member states’ supply conditions to differ, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks of the type associated with the Balassa–Samuelson effect tend to hamper the stabilization properties of a currency union. In the face of aggregate supply disturbances, the stabilization costs of renouncing monetary autonomy diminish with a steeper supply curve (as induced by higher trade openness) and—barring idiosyncratic shocks—with a larger reference country size, more homogeneous supply slopes and a higher preference for price stability.

Persistence of business cycles in multisector real business cycle models

In this paper we explore whether the changing composition of output in response to technology shocks can play a significant role in the propagation of shocks over time. For this purpose we study two multisector real business cycle models, with two and three sectors. We find that, although the two-sector model requires a high intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption to match the various dynamic properties of US macroeconomic data, the three-sector model has a strong propagation mechanism under conventional parameterizations, as long as the factor intensities in the three sectors are different enough.     

人民币国际化对货币政策有效性的影响

人民币国际化是否影响货币政策有效性?是人民币国际化程度提高之后货币大规模跨境流动而引起的担忧。文章研究发现,在给定其他因素不变的情况下,人民币国际化程度的提高放大了境外汇率变动对国内经济产出和价格的影响。因此,人民币国际化背景下,中央银行应将境外汇率失衡纳入货币政策的反应函数,反应系数取决于境外利率、产出和价格对境外货币需求的决定系数。理论分析还表明,人民币国际化程度不影响货币政策对国内价格的有效性,而是否影响货币政策对国内经济产出的有效性,则取决于经济结构特征。实证结果表明,目前人民币国际化未对国内利率、产出和价格带来明显冲击,且无论是在M0层次,还是在M2层次,人民币国际化均未明显影响国内货币政策有效性。     

Asymmetric monetary policies? the case of Germany and France

How dissimilar are the policy objectives of the Bundesbank and the Banque de France and have those objectives converged since the conception of the EMS? We address these questions by estimating objective functions for the flexible-exchange-rate and the EMS periods. Vector autoregressions are used to characterize the economic environment and an inverse control methodology is used to infer the objectives of the central banks. We find that the Bundesbank's policy actions are compatible with its having consistently placed a high weight on the objective of price stability. The Banque de France on the other hand appears to have considered output stability to be an important target in the early EMS period. After a major French policy shift in 1982 the objectives of two Central Banks appear to be quite similar.     

Reforms,Exchange Rates and Monetary Commitment: A Panel Analysis for OECD Countries

The paper investigates the link between monetary policy and structural reforms in open economies. We test three hypotheses: (a) the Calmfors hypothesis that the degree of reforms is higher in the case of autonomous policy and lower in the case of commitment, (b) the TINA hypothesis which implies a positive impact of a monetary policy rule on the extent of reforms, and (c) a third factors hypothesis. In our empirical analysis on panel data of 23 OECD countries from 1980–2000 we find little evidence for the Calmfors hypothesis, but evidence in favor of the TINA argument for labor market and regulatory reform.

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function

This paper uses two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction functions for 16 OECD-countries to account for different reactions to the inflation rate and output by central banks before or after an election of the fiscal authorities in the respective country. Important for such an investigation is not only the period before or after an election takes place but also whether the inflation rate and output are below or above their target or potential value because this information shows whether the central bank systematically deviates from the Taylor rule. Using a Panel-GMM we observe that in the OECD-countries there are political business cycles in monetary policy with respect to the inflation and output response. However, the supporting time horizon differs between both exogenous indicators and state of variables.     

The pricing of China stock index options based on monetary policy uncertainty

In the field of option pricing, scholars have been exploring the constant settings of volatility and interest rate ever since the Black-Scholes model was put forward. This research introduces a floating interest rate into the local volatility model, analyzes the model’s pricing effects, and compares them from the aspects of an in-sample pricing error and out-of-sample pricing error respectively using data of CSI (China Securities Index) SH-SZ (Shanghai-Shenzhen) 300 stock index options. The empirical results show that the Surface Stochastic Volatility Inspire model is better than the Stochastic Volatility Inspire model.     

The estimation of monetary policy reaction function in a data-rich environment: The case of Japan

This paper reports the estimates of a monetary policy reaction function for the Bank of Japan in a data-rich environment. There are two main findings. First, a weak identification problem arises in the estimates under the specifications that some previous works employ, though in a data-rich environment it may be possible to avoid this problem. Second, the evidence from the estimates in a data-rich environment suggests that the Bank of Japan only controlled the inflation forecast, and placed no weight on output stabilization directly over the period from November 1988 through February 2001.     

Strategic Interactions Among Central Bank and National Fiscal Authorities in a Monetary Union Subject to Asymmetric Country Shocks

In this paper we extend Nordhaus’ (Brookings Pap Econ Act (2):139–199, 1994) results to an environment which may represent the current European situation, characterised by a single monetary authority and several fiscal bodies. We show that, even assuming that the monetary and the fiscal authorities share the same ideal targets, in the presence of asymmetric shocks the “symbiosis” result found by Dixit and Lambertini (J Int Econ 60:235–247, 2003) no longer obtains. Thus, fiscal rules as those envisaged in the Maastricht Treaty and in the Stability and Growth Pact may work as monetary/fiscal coordination devices that improve welfare. The imposition of common targets, however, may work as a substitute for policy coordination only if these are made state contingent, an aspect that the recent version of the Stability and Growth Pact takes into account in a more appropriate way than its original version.

Introducing Instruments of Central Bank Accountability in a Monetary Union

With an increasing number of independent central banks, accountability of central banks is also getting more attention. This paper analyses the possibility of introducing instruments of central bank accountability in a monetary union. In our model, monetary policy is influenced by the governments of the member states according to the degree of independence granted to the central bank. Instruments of democratic accountability are introduced which generate different expected losses for a government. The amount of the expected loss will determine the approval of a government to the implementation of a particular mechanism. We show that the agreement between the governments will only be unanimous for the definition of the inflation target of the central bank.