How do informal farmland rental markets affect smallholders’ well‐being? Evidence from a matched tenant–landlord survey in Malawi

We estimate the efficiency and equity returns to farmland rental markets in Malawi using a matched tenant–landlord survey of smallholder farm households in four districts. Our sample allows us to more fully observe the landlord side of the rental market, which is almost always missing in previous studies. Our results suggest that land rental markets promote efficiency by facilitating a net transfer of land to more productive farmers. We also find that land rental markets promote equity as conventionally defined in the land markets literature, that is, by transferring land from land‐rich households to land‐poor households, and from labor‐poor to labor‐rich households. However, our study identifies some important challenges for land rental markets in this context. First, we find that tenants in our sample are wealthier than their landlord counterpart on average in all dimensions other than landholding. In addition, most landlords report the motive for renting out their land as either the need for immediate cash, or the lack of labor and/or capital to cultivate the plot that was rented out. These findings align with concerns about potential “stress renting” by poor landlords and suggest the value of defining equity along a broader set of dimensions other than simply equalizing the distribution of farmland and labor.     

Distress rentals and the land rental market as a safety net: contract choice evidence from Tigray,Ethiopia

Rural households in the semiarid Northern Ethiopian highlands are net buyers of food. Crop failure due to erratic and unpredictable rainfall occurs frequently and leads to food shortages and income shocks. The renting out of land may be one of the coping responses of households exposed to shocks. We developed a theoretical household model for poor landlord households capturing their contract choice response to downside production shocks. We tested econometrically whether contract choice may depend on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. The multinomial logit model estimates show that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed‐rent contracts as a distress response to shocks, suggesting that fixed‐rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs, but at the expense of future incomes. We also found that fixed‐rent contracts are preferred when ex ante production risk is low, while sharecropping is more likely where production risk is high. Finally, we found an indication that the choice of a fixed‐rent contract as a coping response to shocks comes as a last resort after all other means of coping are exhausted.     

Cattle sharing and rental contracts in an Agrarian economy: evidence from Ethiopia

Empirical evidence on the role of cattle sharing and rental contracts in agrarian economies is limited. This article is an investigation of different types of cattle sharing and rental contracts producers in rural Ethiopia adopt. It also investigates why households in rural Ethiopia rely on these contracts that are vulnerable and therefore subject to potential moral hazard problems described in earlier literature. We apply random effect probit and control function econometric methods to household panel data collected in 2005 and 2007 from two agro‐ecological zones in Ethiopia. Controlling for the endogeneity of access to livestock credit, we find that contracts are spatially fragmented and better developed where population density is high and credit and insurance markets are poorly developed. We also find that contracts help cash poor and credit constrained households to improve their herd dynamics, to get access to nonlivestock resources (land, labor and cash) and share risks that could have been difficult without the contract. We show that contracts are rational responses of residents in rural communities characterized by imperfect credit and insurance services, since households with better access to credit are less likely to rely on contracts.     

Tenants’ land access in the rental market: evidence from northern Ethiopia

The purpose of this study is to investigate the allocation efficiency in the tenancy market, and thereby the potential of the market to facilitate operational farm size adjustment that can help land‐poor tenant households to transform into smallholder commercial farms. We analyzed three rounds of balanced panel data for the production seasons 2005–2006, 2009–2010, and 2014–2015 collected from 320 smallholder farms in Tigrai region in northern Ethiopia. Random effects dynamic probit and tobit models are used to assess how land‐poor tenants’ access and extent of access to land are affected by state dependency (earlier participation in the market), kinship ties, climate shocks, and legal restrictions. The results indicate that state dependency and kinship ties with the landholder had strong positive effects on participation and intensity of participation. Climate shocks significantly affected the intensity of participation of tenants already in the rental market. Tenants’ overall access to rented land had not improved from 2005–2006 to 2014–2015. The amount of land accessed by those already in the market was insufficient for them to become commercial farmers. The important policy implication is that orchestrated interventions at community level are needed to reduce transaction costs and thereby improve land access of entrepreneurial tenants.     

Factors affecting entry and intensity in informal rental land markets in Southern Ethiopian highlands

Informal land transactions, particularly rental land markets, are emerging in rural Ethiopia in response to the inadequacies of the administratively based land distribution system to meet the growing demand for land and correct imbalances in factor proportions at the farm level. These informal land markets provide a vehicle to equalise factor proportions at the farm level and to improve productivity and hence households' welfare. Among the farmers who lease out land, those who live in the highland‐areas, where land is scarce and unequal, are more likely to engage in these markets. Increases in the size of land holdings relative to labour and livestock ownership, the number of non‐working household members and pressure for subsistence increase the likelihood of leasing out land. On the other hand, increases in the number of working adults, improved nutritional status and greater wealth affect negatively the supply of land into these markets. The potential exists for these markets to improve factor equalisation, reduce inequality in land holdings, and shift the income position of participating households. However, success depends on whether other factor markets are functioning to thwart forced disposal of land to meet subsistence. Public policy has pivotal role in fostering the growth of these markets and their land transfer and factor equalisation functions by ensuring their legally enforceable status, and removing legal restrictions that constrain choices of contracts and trading over greater distances. In addition, both long and short‐term policy measures are needed to reduce the extent to which poor farmers engage in distress transactions.     

Variation in Output Shares and Endogenous Matching in Land Rental Contracts: Evidence from Ethiopia

We investigate the extent of variation in output sharing in land rental contracts and alternative hypotheses to explain this variation. Close to half of the rental contracts in our study in northern Ethiopia have output shares that deviate from the dominant 50–50 equal sharing. Variation in land quality, the relative bargaining power of landlords and tenants, production risks and shocks are hypothesised to influence output shares. Matched data of landlords and tenants are used. The importance of endogenous matching of landlords and tenants is investigated by assessing how endogenous tenant characteristics are correlated with landlord characteristics. We find evidence of negative assortative matching for key resource characteristics. A control function approach is used to control for endogenous matching in the output share models. The results reveal that production risks, as well as relative bargaining power, affect output shares in the reverse tenancy setting where tenants are relatively wealthier and more influential than landlords.     

Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections

This paper presents a bio‐economic model of Andit Tid, a severely degraded crop‐livestock farming system with high population density and good market access in the highlands of Ethiopia. Land degradation, population growth, stagnant technology, and drought threaten food security in the area. Drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years. The bio‐economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation, population growth, market imperfections and increased risk of drought on household production, welfare and food security. We find that the indirect effects of drought on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought. Provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser, although risky in itself, may lead to increased grain production and improved household welfare and food security. Provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser.     

Rental markets for cultivated land and agricultural investments in China

The purpose of this paper is to empirically track the progress and consequences of the emergence of cultivated land markets in China since 2000. We draw on a set of nationwide, household‐level panel data (for 2000 and 2008) and find that the markets for cultivated land rental have emerged robustly. According to our data, 19 of China's cultivated land was rented in farm operators in 2008. We also find that the nature of China's cultivated land rental contracts has become more formal and lengthened the period of time that the tenant is able to cultivate the rented‐in plots. While there may be benefits for lessors and tenants, our data show that there are falling rates of investment in organic manure. The farmers in our sample have reduced organic manure use from 13 tons/ha in 2000 to 5 tons/ha in 2008. Part of this fall is due to the rise of cultivated land rental markets. The analysis, however, does not find that improved property rights in cultivated land rental affect investment largely because property rights have largely been established by 2000, the first year of our sample. Our results, however, also show that there are forces that appear to be mitigating the negative consequences of rising cultivated land rental. After holding constant initial rental rates and other factors, we find that the gap between investment in organic manure in own land and rented‐in land is narrowing. One interpretation of our findings is that if policymakers can find ways to even further strengthen the rights of lessors and tenants as well as lengthen contract periods, farmers—even those that rent—will invest more in their land, because they will be able to capture the returns to their investments.     

Price shock transmission: evidence from the wheat‐bread market value chain in Ethiopia

This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat‐bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000–2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half‐life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stages—with the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.     

Determinants and impact of sustainable land management (SLM) investments: A systems evaluation in the Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia

Ongoing debate over water management along the Blue Nile and land degradation in Ethiopia emphasizes the need for efficiency gains in agricultural production through sustainable land management (SLM). However, previous SLM studies overlook the tradeoffs involved in maintaining SLM investments over time. We address this limitation by combining a household survey that evaluates the economic impacts of SLM investments and maintenance, with a hydrological model that explores location‐specific infrastructure effects. We then use a multi‐market model to evaluate the impacts of alternative SLM investments on agricultural production, prices, and incomes over time. Analysis suggests SLM investments must be maintained for at least seven years to show significant increases in value of production, and that terraces on moderate and steep slopes are most effective in increasing agricultural yields. However, the benefits of terracing do not outweigh the cost of foregone off‐farm labor opportunities, nor compensate for lower agricultural prices from increased supply. Thus, SLM investments must be paired with other input and infrastructure investments, as well as subsidies for initial labor costs, in order to incentivize adoption and long‐term SLM maintenance.     

Agricultural production and children's diets: evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the relationship between pre‐school children's food consumption and household agricultural production. Using a large household survey from rural Ethiopia, we find that increasing household production diversity leads to considerable improvements in children's dietary diversity. However, we also document how this nonseparability of consumption and production does not hold for households that have access to food markets. These findings imply that nutrition‐sensitive agricultural interventions that push for market integration are likely to be more effective in reducing under‐nutrition than those promoting production diversity.     

How does land fragmentation affect off‐farm labor supply: panel data evidence from China

This article provides a deeper theoretical understanding of the linkages between land fragmentation and off‐farm labor supply in China, and investigates this relationship empirically in a more direct way than does the existing literature. Drawing upon a rural household panel data set collected in Zhejiang, Hubei, and Yunnan Provinces from 1995 to 2002, we estimate the effects in two steps. First, we estimate the effect of land fragmentation on labor productivity. Second, we estimate the effect of land fragmentation on off‐farm labor supply. The production function results show that land fragmentation indeed leads to lower agricultural labor productivity, implying that land consolidation will make on‐farm work more attractive and thus decrease off‐farm labor supply. However, the effect of land consolidation on off‐farm labor supply is not significant. One likely explanation for this result may be the potentially imperfect labor markets.     

土地抵押、银行信贷与金融风险:理论、实证与政策分析

研究目的:探讨土地抵押融资风险的识别标准、产生原因和防范措施。研究方法:数理分析与统计和计量分析。研究结果:(1)微观层面上,银行对贷款抵押率的选择和对未来土地价格变化的预期决定土地抵押融资风险的大小;(2)宏观层面上,土地资产价值的变化决定融资风险的大小,过量的土地供应、过快增长的土地价格在扩大信贷规模的同时加大了信贷风险;(3)目前中国土地抵押融资风险产生的直接原因是法律法规的欠缺,主要原因是政府转型的滞后和银行风险管理体制的不健全,而市场环境不完善起了推动作用。研究结论:需要从完善法律法规、加快政府改革、强化银行风险管理和推进市场建设等方面防范土地抵押融资风险。     

Motivations to grow energy crops: the role of crop and contract attributes

Perennial energy crops are a promising source of bioenergy whose production involves production risks, long‐term commitment of land and need for crop‐specific investments without the coverage of crop insurance potentially available for conventional crops. We conduct a choice experiment in five states in the Midwestern and South‐central regions of the U.S. to examine the effect of crop‐contract attributes on the joint discrete‐continuous choice decisions to adopt an energy crop and convert acres to it from a status quo use, while controlling for the effect of various farmers’ risk and time preferences, sociodemographic characteristics, and availability of crop insurance for conventional crops. We find robust evidence that high discount rates, high upfront establishment costs and need for crop‐specific investments create disincentives for adoption and allocation of land to energy crop production. The effects of riskiness of returns and risk aversion are less robust across specifications. The effect of conventional crop insurance on the energy crop adoption decision differs across types of insurance; in particular, farmers with revenue insurance are statistically significantly less likely to adopt an energy crop. Our results have implications for the design of effective contracts and policy incentives to induce the production of energy crops.     

Tenure security, resource poverty, public programs, and household plot-level conservation investments in the highlands of northern Ethiopia

Land degradation poses a serious problem for the livelihoods of rural producers. Furthermore, there is rarely enough private investment taking place to commensurate the scale of the problem. This article examines the role of tenure insecurity, resource poverty, risk and time preferences, and community‐led land conservation on differentiated patterns of household investment in land conservation in northern Ethiopia. We control for biophysical, household characteristics, market access conditions, and village level factors. Investments in soil bunds and stone terraces are specifically studied so as to capture the link between these various factors and the durability of conservation investments. We introduce the distinction between the determinants of the decision to invest and how much to invest in conservation. Regression results show that publicly led conservation programs seem to significantly stimulate private investment. A host of plot‐level variables and household perceptions of returns on conservation investments, expressed in terms of perceived improvements in land quality and increased crop yields, were found to be critical to the decision to invest and intensify soil conservation. The evidence on the significance of households' attitudes toward risk aversion suggests the important role of risk and the household's risk‐bearing capacity in the decision to intensify conservation measures. At the same time, tenure security indicators and households' resource endowments (resource poverty) had weaker effects in increasing willingness to invest and the level of investment made. The policy implications of these results point to the importance of agricultural research and extension efforts that target technologies which reduce household risk and poverty while enabling sustainable investments in conservation measures by individual households.     

Effect of off‐farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia

This article investigates how off‐farm income affects crop output market participation decisions and marketed surplus of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. A double‐hurdle model is estimated using three waves of panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey. Unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for using a correlated random effect procedure and potential endogeneity of explanatory variables using a control function approach. The results show that off‐farm income has no significant influence on household crop output market participation. However, conditional on market participation, additional off‐farm earnings negatively affect the marketed surplus. This indicates that farmers use off‐farm earnings for consumption rather than for investment in agricultural production. Policy measures that promote rural investment may help increase returns to labor for land‐poor households participating in off‐farm work in the process of agricultural commercialization.     

Landowner valuation of a working wetlands program in the Prairie Pothole Region

Wetlands conservation within agricultural working lands is currently incentivized by land retirement programs and farm program eligibility criteria. Private ownership of the majority of agricultural lands within which these wetlands reside and growing opportunity costs facing landowners put wetlands at risk and motivate consideration of alternative policy options. A choice experiment was used to estimate likelihood of enrollment in a hypothetical working wetlands program. Landowners preferred shorter contract lengths, higher rental rates, midterm adjustment rather than a fixed‐rate contract, the right to conduct managed burning on their lands‐containing program wetlands, and no conservation practice requirement. Landowners with higher expressed valuation of conservation and who favor protecting wetlands, believe that small wetlands are important for their farms, who would not drain any of their wetlands, and raise ruminant animals are more inclined to participate in the program. Recommendations include consideration of program targeting during program design, practicing creative thought regarding program promotion, and exploration of no‐loss wetlands solutions, especially those market based.     

Financial drivers of land use decisions: The case of smallholder woodlots in Amhara,Ethiopia

A household survey on the financial drivers of woodlot production was conducted in the Lake Tana watershed of Amhara State, Ethiopia. Analysis of smallholder Eucalyptus globulus Labill. production reveals that converting uneroded over eroded croplands leads to significantly higher financial returns. Returns were also significantly higher for rotation intervals closer to the optimal economic rotation and for higher planting densities. Most woodlots had positive financial returns. The presence of negative financial returns for some households demonstrates that positive ecological externalities, a lack of economies of scale and/or myopic behavior are potentially important factors in land use decision-making. Wood utilization decisions were shown to impact the potential financial returns of households. Smallholders’ activities demonstrate that eucalyptus is an imperfect substitute for agricultural production on surplus cropland. A third of respondents indicated they had intentionally chosen to convert uneroded croplands to achieve higher returns. Smallholders faced constraints in bargaining over price and access to markets. Future land use policies should address marketing constraints and unsustainable land use activities. Harvesting soil from natural forests and the conversion of productive surplus cropland to woodlot production both present long-term sustainability challenges. This study demonstrates the importance of considering economic and social incentives when creating land use policies for smallholder's woodlot production.     

Land Market Imperfections and Agricultural Policy Impacts in the New EU Member States: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

This article analyses how transaction costs and imperfect competition in the land market affect the welfare effects of agricultural subsidies in the new Eastern Member States of the European Union. Benefits of land subsidies end up with landowners in new Eastern Member States also with imperfections in the new Eastern Member States land markets. With unequal access to subsidies, small tenant farmers may even lose out from the subsidies. Decoupling of payments shifts policy rents to farmers, but constrains productivity-enhancing restructuring. Using reserve entitlements to mitigate this effect reduces the intended benefits on distortions and target efficiency.     

Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.