On a two regime model of the Dutch export market

Summary About a decade ago Batchelor presented an interesting model for the export market of UK industry in the period 1948–1975. In this paper a corrected version of Batchelor's model is used to explain Dutch exports from 1962 to 1981. The results are compared with straightforward alternatives to obtain an indication of the relevance of the model in practice. Our conclusion is that the model does not explain exports behaviour better than simple alternatives. For some variables even implausible elasticities are obtained.The authors gratefully acknowledge the computational assistance of Mr. R. van Dal and the valuable comments of Mr. D.A.G. Draper from the CPB, Professor J. Pen and two anonymous referees.     

Selling news and advertising space: The economics of Dutch newspapers

Summary This article presents an analysis of developments over the period 1968–1991 on both the reader and advertising markets of Dutch newspapers. We are interested in the characteristics of both markets and in the interactions between the two markets. Our analysis shows that newspaper revenue is mainly influenced by macroeconomic developments. A negative influence of TV advertising on revenue from the advertising market exists, but is fairly limited. The newspaper industry as a whole seems to be able to deal with these threats to their revenue by raising the real prices they charge for their products.The authors wish to thank Frank den Butter and anonymous referees for their comments on a previous version of this article.     

Fiscal policy and Dutch disease

In this paper we revisit the Dutch disease paying particular attention to the role of specific factors of production and capital stock dynamics. The main insight is that if the natural resource rich windfall is substantial but not large enough for the country to become a rentier, capital goods must be produced at home and adjustment to natural resource windfall takes time. It takes time to build this home-grown capital. Specific factors are crucial to explain the dynamic responses of the real exchange rate, capital intensities and wages in response to a natural resource windfall. If a country is small and the windfall is large, it may be able to import capital and migrant labour in which case the Dutch disease can be avoided.     

The curse of Moctezuma: American silver and the Dutch disease

This study formalizes and empirically tests the conjecture that the discovery of large silver reserves in its American colonies during the 1540s triggered in Spain a case of Dutch disease, diverting factors of production to non-traded goods industries and undermining the Spanish comparative advantages in the Early Modern Age. I develop an open-economy model to mimic the economic conditions in Imperial Spain. I then present new consumption weights built from primary sources, which I combine with existing price data to produce price indexes for traded and non-traded goods; these are then used to test the implications of the model in a Markov-switching regression framework. I identify a strong and persistent increase in the relative price of non-traded goods coinciding with the silver discoveries, lasting for almost three decades and reversing itself only after the 1575 and 1579 crown bankruptcies.     

The Dutch disease: The Canadian evidence

Zusammenfassung Die ⋯holl?ndische Krankheit”: Der kanadische Befund. — Der Autor betrachtet detailliert das Ausma\ der sektoralen Verschiebungen und untersucht die strukturellen Anpassungsprozesse in der kanadischen Volkswirtschaft. Er zeigt, da\ das Wachstumsmuster nicht nur zwischen den Sektoren asymmetrisch ist, sondern auch zwischen zwei Phasen des Konjunkturzyklus. Dementsprechend scheint der Strukturwandel einem zyklischen Pfad gefolgt zu sein. Diese Hypothese wird empirisch getestet unter Verwendung von Vierteljahresdaten aus der Zeit zwischen 1962 und 1983. Eine disaggregierte Analyse der Lohnentwicklung zeigt eine ?hnliche Asymmetrie. Dies wird zum gro\en Teil auf die Rohstofflastigkeit der kanadischen Wirtschaft zurückgeführt. In einem verallgemeinerten Rahmen für die ⋯holl?ndische Krankheit” l?\t sich daraus entnehmen, da\ die Rohstofflastigkeit zum strukturellen Wandel beigetragen und auch die zyklischen Charakteristika bestimmt hat.

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Résumé La maladie néerlandaise: l’évidence canadienne. — Cette étude jette un coup d’oeuil sur la dimension des déplacements sectoriels et examine le processus d’ajustement structurel dans l’économie canadienne. Il est constaté que la croissance se développe d’une manière asymétrique en ce qui concerne les secteurs et les deux phases consécutives du cycle conjoncturel. Pour cette raison le changement structurel semble avoir suivi une voie cyclique. Cette hypothèse est examinée par un test empirique en utilisant des dates trimestrielles pendant la période 1962–83. Une analyse désagrégée du développement des salaires démontre une asymétrie similaire. Ce fait est largement attribué au caractère de l’économie canadienne basée sur des ressources naturelles. Dans un cadre généralisé de la maladie néerlandaise cela peut être expliqué d’avoir contribué au changement structurel et aussi d’avoir déterminé le caractère cyclique.

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Resumen La enfermedad holandesa: evidencia para el Canadá. — En este trabajo se analiza detalladamente la magnitud de cambios sectoriales y se examina la naturaleza del proceso de ajuste estructural de la economía canadiense. Se encuentra que además de ser asimétrica entre los sectores, la pauta de crecimiento también es asimétrica entre dos fases del ciclo económico. Por ello, el cambio estructural parece haber seguido una trayectoria c?clica. Esto se estudia emp?ricamente utilizando datos trimestrales correspondientes al período 1962-1983. El análisis desagregado del comportamiento salarial muestra una asimetría similar. Esto es atribuído en gran parte a la importancia de los recursos naturales para la economia canadiense. En el marco generalizado de la enfermedad holandesa esto puede haber contribuído al cambio estructural y a determinar sus características cíclicas.

     

Thailand's investment-driven boom and crisis

Analyses of the Asian crisis of 1997 have focused excessivelyon the financial sector, especially the banks. The role of thereal sector in exposing the financial system to stress has beenunder-emphasized. This paper provides a real-sector explanationfor Thailand's crisis, demonstrating the role of the investmentboom of the preceding decade. We build a full macroeconomicmodel of the Thai economy and use it to demonstrate that theinvestment boom and its changing composition generated recordgrowth but also increased macroeconomic vulnerability. Thisvulnerability, combined with the trigger of an export slowdownin 1996, produced the crisis.     

Easterlin revisited: Relative income and the baby boom

This paper reexamines the first viable and a still leading explanation for mid-twentieth century baby booms: Richard Easterlin's relative income hypothesis. He suggested that when incomes are higher than material aspirations (formed in childhood), birth rates would rise. This paper uses microeconomic data to formulate a measure of an individual's relative income. The use of microeconomic data allows the researcher to control for both state fixed effects and cohort fixed effects, both have been absent in previous examinations of Easterlin's hypothesis. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with Easterlin's assertion that relative income influenced fertility decisions, although the effect operates only through childhood income. When the estimated effects are contextualized, they explain 12% of the U.S. baby boom.     

Cosmology and economics

Abstract

Economics has become the political magic of the twentieth century, and contention over economic policy is the political lifeblood of the modern state. The glare of publicity highlights the equilibrism of economic policy, leaving in the shade diplomacy and statecraft of former days. There is a consensus in modern society and in the modern state that political debate and economic discussion are two sides of the same coin, and that “economics”, like a second law of nature, sets the limits of the political options. Economic reform, economic adjustment, economic “rescue plans” and so on are synonyms for political strategies. Politics is the management of the “economy”, and at the same time “economics” is the authority to which all appeal as the “necessity”, as the authority that governs and legitimises policy.     

Utility and economics

Summary Although utility has been the central concept in economics, economists have paid relatively little attention to its measurement. Generally, utility is measured indirectly via the revealed preference approach. We discuss problems with this approach and next introduce alternative direct measurement methods. The direct measurement methods are seen to spawn a so-called theory of preference formation, which explains differences in utility functions of different individuals. The similarities of this theory with related theories in sociology and psychology, and various sorts of empirical evidence, are reviewed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for economic theories.This is a slightly adapted version of my inaugural address at Tilburg University. I thank Tom Wansbeek for his helpful comments.     

On export performance and export elasticities: A macroeconomic approach

Summary In many studies far-reaching conclusions with regard to competitiveness are based upon an export price elasticity that results from only estimating an equation for the volume of exports. The aim of this article is to show with the aid of a macroeconomic model that the influence of competitiveness is overestimated in this way. This conclusion cannot be based on the necessity to introduce the export structure alongside world trade as a regressor in the export equation. The overestimation is a result offeedback mechanisms, greatly resulting from an endogenous exchange rate, which largely neutralize the initial export price effect. Financial support from the Netherlands organisation for the advancement of pure research (ZWO), no. 46–65, is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Prof. S.K. Kuipers for helpful comments and Martin O. Nijkamp and Vincent C.A. Polanen Petel for computational assistance.     

成长性进出口

自从2001年底加入世贸组织以来,中国的出口连续保持15％-30％的增长速度。在高速增长的同时,中国外贸面临的矛盾和所要解决的问题也越来越突出。中国的外贸能否持续增长,其速度和效益比的关系越来越多地被提及。转变外贸增长方式的呼声也日益高涨。