去工业化对收入不平等的影响:机制分析与实证检验

基于126个国家1991-2017年的面板数据,考察了去工业化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现,去工业化会显著加剧收入不平等程度,这在发展中经济体尤为显著。从传导机制看,去工业化既可以通过劳动力就业转移直接影响收入不平等,也可通过非熟练劳动力就业和服务业部门就业分化间接影响收入不平等。一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力受到更大冲击,致使该部分劳动力失业,加剧收入不平等;另一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力的就业从工业的高薪部门转移至服务业的低薪部门,最终影响收入不平等。进一步研究发现,在可能存在"过早去工业化"的国家去工业化对收入不平等的作用更加明显。因此发展中经济体要着重预防由于去工业化可能带来的收入不平等程度恶化。     

Foreign capital,welfare and urban unemployment in the presence of agricultural dualism

In a two sector mobile capital Harris–Todaro model, such as [Corden, W.M., Findlay, R., 1975. Urban unemployment, intersectoral capital mobility, and development policy in a dual economy. Economica 42, 59–78], an inflow of foreign capital in the presence of protectionist policy is welfare deteriorating as well as unemployment accentuating. But, the developing countries have chosen liberalized investment and trade policies as their development strategies and have been able to attract a considerable amount of foreign capital during the last two decades. A relevant question is why these countries are yearning for foreign capital given its detrimental effects as predicted by the conventional theoretical literature on trade and development. This paper makes an attempt to address the above issue in terms of a three sector Harris–Todaro model with agricultural dualism and a non-traded final commodity. In the given setup, an inflow of foreign capital is likely to improve welfare and does not necessarily worsen the problem of unemployment. The paper may also be useful to explain as to why many of the developing economies have experienced ‘jobless growth’ in the liberalized regime.     

Human Resource Underutilization in an Era of Poverty Reduction: An Analysis of Unemployment and Underemployment in Ghana

Abstract: Unemployment is more prevalent in urban than rural Ghana, while underemployment is pervasive in rural Ghana. The paper analyses trends in these two forms of human resource underutilization and examines their major determinants. It is found that a positive association exists between the underemployment rate and the incidence of poverty in specific industries. The data supports the importance of demographics, education and firm sizes as major determinants of unemployment. Furthermore, these factors together with type of employment are the factors influencing underemployment. To reduce the level of unemployment and underemployment, the government should provide support for: (1) growth of private sector firms and informal sector activities; and (2) rural alternatives to agricultural activities. These implications are also relevant to other African countries trying to combat the twin problems of unemployment and underemployment.     

我国农产品对俄罗斯出口问题探讨

中俄农产品贸易是中俄两国间贸易的重要组成部分。两国在农业资源、生产潜力、产品品种以及市场需求等方面,贸易具有互补性,贸易潜力巨大。中俄农产品贸易的持续发展可以带动中俄两国农业劳务、农业科技、农业机械等方面的合作。     

RESOURCE FLOW BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY —The Chinese Experience*—

The author has previously been engaged in a series of comparative studies on the role of the agricultural sector among the developing countries, being in doubt about the validity of the generally recognized view that in those countries much of the capital for industrialization has been supplied from this sector. For the purpose of re-examining this view, in this article the author analyses the resource outflow-inflow position of the agricultural sector in the Chinese economy and presents a grave question: Can the agricultural sector provide sufficient capital for industrial development in developing countries?     

Black male unemployment

Public policies intended to raise the wages of unskilled workers, equalize educational opportunity, stabilize employment, and increase imports were sources of the growth of unskilled and, therefore, of black unemployment since 1950. The wartime wage-equalization policy and postwar minimum-wage policies raised the cost of unskilled labor relative to that of capital and of skilled labor. The Fed's inflationary full-employment policy between 1950 and 1970 reduced real interest rates relative to unskilled wages. Subsidies for higher education increased the supply of skilled labor, reducing its cost relative to that of unskilled labor. Trade liberalization increased imports of manufactured goods from developing countries, which displaced U.S. unskilled labor.     

Off-farm employment and time allocation in on-farm work in rural China from gender perspective

This paper sheds light on how the growing number of off-farm employees affects the labor allocation of female and male left-behind farmers in the Chinese agricultural sector. We find no direct effect of off-farm employment on left behind workers' total working time in farming, nor do we observe a gender difference in this respect. However, we do find that increasing off-farm work is associated with fewer days worked on staple crops, and in the harvesting and sales stages of the production process. Hiring labor and buying agricultural services also impact left behind workers' time allocation. Moreover, we find that in China, contrary to several other developing countries, there is no trend towards a feminization of agriculture, but rather a tendency in the reverse direction.     

Current trends in Germany’s social policy in employment and unemployment

This paper deals with problems of the institutional crisis in employment policy and consequences of institutional reforms of P. Hartz in 2003–2005 in Germany, which affected the labor market and the social state. It has been shown that the reforms resulted in the radical restructuring of employment and unemployment and that, for all positive results of Hartz reforms, the problem of long-term unemployment and development of the informal employment sector still persists, which raises the question of reforming the professional training of highly qualified personnel.     

经济发展与社会福利:从对立到整合

随着"全球化"时代的来临,经济发展与社会福利之间两难抉择成为了不可回避的问题.经济全球化的消极后果--劳动力市场改变、持续失业的产生、福利依赖性的增强以及抑制福利支出的需要,已经对社会福利的发展及其稳定性构成了严峻挑战.近年来,西方社会福利的论述正逐渐超越传统两难的格局,积极地探讨二者之间系统整合的可能性,由此激发出更多的福利发展新思维.     

我国农村劳动力转移的宏观调控法保护——基于促进现代农业可持续发展视角

我国是传统农业大国,农村人口众多,在发展现代农业、建设新农村过程中,农村人口的就业问题就显得尤其重要。而农村劳动力转移是我国现代农业可持续发展和农村人口就业的重要渠道,是建设现代农业的必由之路。然而,我国农村劳动力转移并不顺畅,制度因素是其主要根源,因此,在社会主义市场经济和法治社会下,宏观调控法规制是我国农村劳动力转移的基本制度保障。     

A measurement of economic growth for selected caribbean nations

This article explores economic growth performance of various Caribbean countries over a twenty-year period. Aspects of growth or decline of agricultural, industrial and service sectors are examined. In particular, the article seeks to provide an assessment of the impact of the agricultural sector on economic growth as measured by Simon Kuznets’ models and propositions in relation to agricultural product and labor contribution. General comparisons between the Caribbean countries and a sample of economies are provided. A central finding is that economic growth was minor during the period under consideration.     

Labor‐eliminating technical change in a developing economy

Developing countries face significant challenges arising from automation. While the trade theory literature has tended to focus on factor‐neutral and factor‐augmenting technical change, automation processes suggest another form of technical change is relevant: factor‐eliminating. We explore the impact of a labor‐eliminating technical change in the context of a small developing economy. Unlike labor‐augmenting technical changes, labor‐eliminating technical changes are not necessarily cost‐reducing, and thus will not necessarily be adopted. A manufacturing wage held artificially higher than at the market‐clearing level, as in the Harris–Todaro framework, increases the incentive to automate. We establish the conditions under which firms will adopt a labor‐eliminating technology, and describe the resulting changes in equilibrium outcomes. Under plausible circumstances, automation can actually lower output, and may raise both the rate and level of unemployment. Immiserizing growth becomes a possibility, and can be tied directly to the underlying wage distortion.     

Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labor market reforms?

In recent years some OECD countries were successful in loweringthe unemployment rate substantially while other countries werenot. In this paper we investigate to what extent successfulcountries implemented a comprehensive set of institutional reforms.We present a theoretical framework to investigate the relationshipbetween unemployment and labor market institutions (LMI) suchas labor taxes, unemployment benefits, employment protection,union bargaining power and (de)centralization of bargaining.In our empirical analysis of data over the period 1960–99of 17 OECD countries we show that particular combinations ofLMI are responsible for low unemployment rates.     

Lewis Growth Model and China's Industrialization*

This paper examines China's industrialization in the light of the Lewis growth model. It begins with a perusal of Lewis's own writings and those of Fei and Ranis to clarify certain assumptions and predictions of the Lewis model. The paper then reviews previous applications of the Lewis model in studying industrialization of other countries, and notes the methodological problems that arise in this regard. In applying the Lewis model to study China's industrialization, the paper focuses on the dynamic relationship between wage and marginal product of labor in the traditional sector. For this purpose, the paper estimates a production function for China's agricultural sector using province level data and compares the estimated marginal product of labor with the corresponding wage of the sector. The results show that the marginal product has been increasing (from below) at a faster pace than the wage, as is predicted by the Lewis model. The results indicate that China as a whole is steadily moving toward the Lewis Turning Point.     

工业化进程中的农业剩余劳动力转移——基于我国工业化资本排斥劳动的经验分析

二元经济理论是早期发展经济学的一个重要理论,它指出将传统农业部门的剩余劳动力向现代工业部门转移,不仅可以解决很多剩余劳动力的就业和增加这部分劳动力的收入,而且可以增加现代工业部门的产出和积累。反过来,现代工业部门的不断增长使之能吸收更多农业剩余劳动力。然而,我国农业剩余劳动力的转移却没有按照刘易斯过程一帆风顺的发展,而是表现了转移的艰难,目前我国还存在大量的农业剩余劳动力。针对这一现象,本文从我国工业化进程角度探索了它对我国农业剩余劳动力转移的影响,并认为目前的工业化进程并不十分有利于农业剩余劳动力转移,而是表现了资本排斥劳动的趋势。因此,本文认为在短期内用“两条腿走路”仍是解决我国农业剩余劳力就业问题的基本思路。     

THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN HONG KONG: ESTABLISHMENT AND READJUSTMENT OF THE LIBERAL WELFARE MODEL

Hong Kong's social security system has followed a “liberal” welfare state regime. The system has undergone changes along with the high economic growth, changes in the labor market, and transformation of the political environment, but has retained the fundamental principle of a social security system led by the private sector. In recent years, Hong Kong has responded to the aging population and growing unemployment by introducing the Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme that requires individuals to join private‐sector pension schemes and by intensifying cooperation with nongovernmental organizations. This indicates the deep‐seated nature of the influence of the liberal regime in Hong Kong.     

Determinants of fertility in developing countries

The contribution of agricultural modernization to changes in fertility in developing countries was examined. A model for the determinants of both fertility and infant mortality--hypothesized to be positively related--was specified and applied to cross-sectional data for 75 developing countries for the year 1971. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of labor and land, and density of population for agricultural land were highly correlated with the crude birth rate. The only other exogenous variables highly correlated with each other were productivity per unit of labor and infant mortality, and productivity per unit of land and population density for agricultural areas. The coefficient of population density of agricultural areas suggested a negative impact of density on fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of land and labor, and density of population of agricultural areas explained 85% of the intercountry variation in fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity of land, and productivity of labor were of descending order of importance in determining the crude birth rates in the countries analyzed. 68% of the intercountry variation in infant mortality was explained by fertility, adult literacy, per capita energy consumption, gini-coefficient of income distribution, population per hospital bed, and protein supply. Adult literacy, crude birth rates, population per hospital bed, per capita energy consumption, per capita protein supply, and gini-coefficient of income distribution were of descending order of importance in determining infant mortality rates. All of the variables that affected infant mortality directly affected fertility indirectly; conversely, all the variables that affected fertility directly affected infant mortality indirectly. Overall, these results confirm that agricultural modernization does exert an effect on fertility. The task in developing countries is to break the vicious cycle of infant mortality and fertility. This can be achieved both through family planning programs and the diffusion of health programs to lower infant mortality.     

Informality Revisited

The paper draws on recent evidence––economic, sociological and anthropological––from Latin America to forward a view of the informal sector in developing countries primarily as an unregulated microentrepreneurial sector and not as a disadvantaged residual of segmented labor markets. It offers alternative explanations for many of the characteristics of the sector customarily regarded as evidence of its inferiority.     

中国实现非农化所面临的投资约束及对策分析

随着我国农业劳动生产率的提高,农业部门现有劳动力出现了大量过剩,再加上每年农村新增劳动力,导致农业劳动力的边际产出一直处于负增长状态。因此,要让农民分享到经济增长的好处,提高农民收入水平,唯一的选择是非农化,即将农业劳动力向非农产业转移,两者之间如何选择也一直是学术界争论的焦点。非农化的实现主要有两种形式：城市化和发展小城镇。文章从城市化的投资约束的角度论述了发展小城镇依然是实现非农化的必由之路,并提出了若干对策与建议。     

Production management — the forgotten factor in the industrialization policy in developing countries

The failure or the slow progress of industrialization programmes in developing countries is often attributed to the reluctance of developed countries to ‘transfer technology’ to them. It is indeed true that in many cases developed countries are reluctant to part with the technological know-how gained over the years to a potential competitor; however, it would be unfair to blame lack of transfer of technology totally for the failure of industrialization aims of developing countries. In most cases the types of technology employed in developing countries are well established. However, the performance of these industries falls well below expectations, even though the technological know-how is fully available. The success of any industry once the technology has been mastered depends largely on efficient production management, which attempts to utilize resources in the most efficient way. Studies in developing countries have shown that production management is given little prominence in the industrial sector. As a result, numerous problems are encountered which lead to inefficiencies and low productivity. The significance of production management is neglected due to the shortage of qualified production management personnel. It is shown that of 32 universities in a sample of 18 developing countries, only one university offered a course in production management. In developed countries, one would typically find 15 such courses in a similar number of universities. The paper argues that without first having personnel qualified to perform the production management function, any industrialization programme has little chance of success. Developing countries and international agencies have been preoccupied with the problem of transfer of technology; it is time serious thought is given to the problems of production management following the technology transfer.