Dynamics of pollution control when damage is sensitive to the rate of pollution accumulation

Economic models which take into account the long-term effects of pollution in the environment specify pollution damage as a function of the accumulated stock. Several economists have proposed another formulation where damage is a function of the time derivative of the pollution stock. This paper considers the intertemporal efficiency implications of this formulation. The first specification is qualitative and the objective functional includes both the rate of change and the level of the pollution stock. The second specification is a stylized climate change model with a linear damage function where damage depends only on the rate of increase in global temperature. The analysis reveals that the efficiency properties of optimal pollution control are very sensitive to this change in the damage function. Intertemporal efficiency may require higher emissions compared with the level which is optimal from the myopic point of view. An increase in the rate of discount typically reduces the optimal emission level.     

International aspects of pollution control

Pollution is a by-product of production, is only gradually dissolved by the environment, and crosses national borders. The market outcome ignores the adverse effects of pollution and thus yields higher levels of output and pollution than would prevail under a supranational social planner which does care about pollution. In practice, governments often do not cooperate and this leads to outcomes of pollution and production in between the market outcomes and the outcomes under supra-national social planning. Absence of precommitment leads to lower emission charges, less cleaning-up activities and more pollution. Appropriate levels of emission charges under the various outcomes are a result of this analysis. Attention is also paid to investment in clean technology. The debate between optimists, who believe that higher production is compatible with sound environmental policy, and pessimists can be analysed in this way.Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the EAERE conference Environmental Cooperation and Policy in the Single European Market, Venice, Italy, 17–20 April, 1990, and the CentER conference Economics of the Environment, Tilburg, The Netherlands, 17–19 September, 1990. The paper has benefitted from the comments of the participants of these conferences, and particularly of the detailed comments of Henk Folmer and Ignazio Musu.     

Environmental innovation and the cost of pollution abatement revisited

It is widely assumed in the literature that environmental innovation reduces the marginal cost of pollution abatement. In this paper we show that this is not necessarily the case and we provide some unexpected outcomes.     

Pollution control and the Ramsey problem

Pollution is an inevitable by-product of production and is only gradually dissolved by the environment. It can be reduced by producing less and by cleaning up the environment, but neither occur when they are left to the market. Cleaning activities and the optimal emission charges increase with the stock of pollutants. When one allows for pollution of the environment in the classical Ramsey problem, the capital stock is less than in the market outcome and a fortiori less than under the golden rule. The analysis distinguishes between stock and flow externalities arising from pollution. An increase in impatience can lead to more capital accumulation, even though this leaves less room for current consumption.     

Openness and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship in China between trade, growth and emissions using provincial-level data for water (chemical oxygen demand: COD) and air (sulphur dioxide: SO₂). It analyses the period 1990–2007 in three steps. First, the income ‘turning point’ of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) has been estimated using quadratic log function and obtained a turning point consistent with existing studies. Second, adopting Dean's (2002) simultaneous equations system, the relationships between trade, growth and emissions has been estimated and the results confirm the dominance of scale effects over technique effects. Third, the estimated per capita turning point for EKC is used to split the provincial industrial database into two groups (below and above turning point income) and simultaneous equations are estimated separately for them. The split sample provided limited support for the trade-induced emissions hypothesis for COD, but not for SO_2. At the provincial level rising incomes via increased levels of international trade were associated with falling COD due to the technique effect, so that rising incomes among the provinces tended to be associated with lower emissions. Stricter environmental regulations are required for growing incomes because they may encourage better production techniques.     

Scale,Technique and Composition Effects in Manufacturing SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions

Combining two data sources on emissions with value-added and employment data, this paper constructs six data bases on sulfur dioxide (SO₂) intensities that vary across countries, sectors and years. This allows us to perform a growth decomposition exercise where the change in world manufacturing emissions is decomposed into scale, composition and technique effects. The sample covers the period 1990–2000, and includes 62 countries that account for 76% of world-wide emissions. While manufacturing activity has increased by a rough 10% (scale effect), we estimate that emissions have fallen by about 10%, thanks to the adoption of cleaner production techniques (the technique effect) and a small shift towards cleaner industries (between-sector effect). As output and productivity gains have been biased towards large emerging countries like China and India, which are both clean in terms of emissions per unit labor and dirty in terms of emissions per dollar, the sign and magnitude of the between-country effect depends on the choice regarding the scaling factor ( − 2% for employment,  + 25% for value-added, with a corresponding adjustment of the technique effect). The paper also shows that these estimates are robust to changes in aggregation across entities (regions or countries) and across industries, and that composition changes are correlated with changes in prices and trade intensities.

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CO2 abatement policy with learning-by-doing in renewable energy

This paper analyzes the implications of CO₂ abatement when there is endogenous technological change in renewable energy. A multi-sector numerical general equilibrium model for Denmark is proposed to reflect two basic assumptions about technological progress in renewable energy. First, there is learning-by-doing and unit costs of production are a decreasing function of cumulated output. Second, technological progress only benefits new vintages of capital. The learning-by-doing process is calibrated to match current projections for technological progress in wind-based electricity. The implications are a marked reduction in the total and marginal cost of abatement and a decline in the optimal level of near-term abatement.     

Willingness to pay to control PM2.5 pollution in Jing-Jin-Ji Region,China

This letter aims to study individual willingness to pay (WTP) to mitigate PM_2.5 pollution in the Jing-Jin-Ji region by using contingent valuation method. Our survey indicated that residents in this region were highly concerned about PM_2.5 pollution control and supported PM_2.5 pollution control policies. In this study, a payment card (PC) format is used to elicit residents’ perceived WTP. With a two-part model, we estimate the mean WTP for an 80% reduction of severe PM_2.5 polluting days in this region is 602 CNY a year, approximately accounts for 1% of the GDP per capita. This result indicates an important funding source for the government to control PM_2.5 pollution in the region. In the econometric analysis, the mean WTP is found to significantly relate with income, expense, age and education level. It decreases with income, age and educational level, but increases with expense, and it is higher for females, people who have children, own cars and apartments but lower for those having larger families. By comparing with relevant researches, this letter indicates a strong and ever-increasing WTP for air pollution control among residents in the Jing-Jin-Ji region, China.     

The control of CO2 emissions and its economic impact: An AGE model for a german state

Since it is believed that CO₂ is responsible for 55% of the greenhouse effect, a CO₂ levy is now under consideration in several countries. For an assessment of the macroeconomic implications of an integrated energy and environmental policy we employ an applied general equilibrium model (AGE) since all sectors of an economy and all private households contribute to CO₂ emission. Our model is a temporary equilibrium model with capacity extension under adjustment costs and with abatement activities for SO₂ and NO_x emissions.The model of consumer behavior will result in a system of consumer demand functions for non-durables as well as for durable goods. The simulations show the cost of inefficiency in resource allocation if CO₂ taxes differ between industries and households. We finally present the marginal cost curve of CO₂ emission reduction.     

Cost Benefit Analysis of European Air Quality Targets for Sulphur Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine and Suspended Particulate Matter in Cities

The European Commission has proposed air quality standards for NO₂, SO₂ and PM₁₀ to be in force by 2010. The present paper presents a study that gauged their costs and benefits. An analysis of the expected emissions for 2010 (reference emission scenario), using simplified air quality models, showed that non-compliance with these standards will occur in cities only, not in rural areas. Most compliance problems are expected for PM₁₀, least for SO₂. Central estimates of the costs to meet standards range from 21 MECU (SO₂), to 79 MECU (NO₂) to 87--225 MECU (PM₁₀). The estimated benefits are 83--3783 MECU (SO₂), 408--5900 MECU (NO₂), and 5007--51247 MECU (PM₁₀). Uncertainties are high, due to errors and incertitude in various steps of the methodology, mainly the estimation of the human health effects, in particular effects on mortality, and in the valuation of a statistical life. In the case of PM₁₀, additional uncertainty results from the small size of the air quality database. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, the indications are that the benefits exceed the costs.     

Decomposing the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil

This paper examines the occurrence of a decoupling between the growth rates in economic activity and CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil from 2004 to 2009. This decoupling was highlighted when economic activity and CO₂ emissions moved in opposite directions in 2009. More generally, we observe several periods of relative decoupling in Brazil, but not to the extent witnessed in 2009. To identify the determinants of emissions change, we develop a decomposition model based on a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) framework. The results indicate that the carbon intensity and energy mix are the main determinant of emissions reduction in Brazil between 2004 and 2009. Modifications in the economy structure are also associated to emission mitigation in the period. Such evidence demonstrates similarities with events of decoupling registered for the interval 1980-1994 in Brazil. Finds from Brazil differ from observations in other countries in which improvement in energy intensity has been the most common determinant of emissions reduction.     

CO2 and Energy Efficiency of Different Heating Technologies in the Dutch Glasshouse Industry

This paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis tocompute input-based technical efficiencymeasures and CO₂ and energy technicalefficiency of specialised vegetable firms inthe Netherlands over the period 1991–1995. Input-based scale efficiency is also calculatedfor each firm. These efficiency measures aregenerated for firms with different heatingtechnologies. The empirical results indicatethat firms use energy quite efficiently and areless efficient in terms of CO₂ emissions. Differences in CO₂ (energy) efficiencyacross different technologies are (not)statistically significant. In particular,firms using traditional heating technologiesare less efficient in terms of CO₂. Scaleadjustments can provide an importantcontribution to further efficiencyimprovements.     

Input-output subsystems and pollution: An application to the service sector and CO2 emissions in Spain

The analysis of input-output subsystems provides a useful tool for studying the productive structure of the different sectors of an economy. In this paper we develop this analysis to the study of the CO₂ emissions associated to the group of branches of the service sector. The decomposition of the total production of the services subsystem allows us to decompose the CO₂ emissions into five different components (own, demand volume, feed-back, internal and spill over components). From the results obtained, we can highlight the different roles played by the different branches of services. Transport activities are the services with the highest level of the direct emissions generated in the production of the sector. These activities are required by the other sectors of the economy to a greater degree than they are for their own final demand. Therefore, the production sold to other sectors causes more emissions than its own final demand. However, in the case of other service activities, direct and indirect emissions related to final demand are much more important, due to the strong pull effect of service activities on other activities of the economy. In this respect, Wholesale and retail trade, Hotels and restaurants, Real estate, renting and business activities, and Public administration services should be highlighted. These services receive scarce attention in the design of policies aimed at reducing emissions, but are notably responsible for the major increase in emissions experienced in recent years.     

Reduction of acidification from electricity — Generating industries in Taiwan by Life Cycle Assessment and Monte Carlo optimization

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a rather common tool for reducing environmental impacts while striving for cleaner processes. This method yields reliable information when input data is sufficient; however, in uncertain systems Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used as a means to compensate for insufficient data. The MC optimization model was constructed from environmental emissions, process parameters and operation constraints. The results of MC optimization allow for the prediction of environmental performance and the opportunity for environmental improvement. The case study presented here focuses on the acidification improvement regarding uncertain emissions and on the available operation of Taiwan's power plants. The boundary definitions of LCA were established for generation, fuel refining and mining. The model was constructed according to objective functional minimization of acidification potential, base loading, fuel cost and generation mix constraints. Scenario simulations are given the different variation of fuel cost ratios for Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that fuel cost was the most important parameter influencing the acidification potential for seven types of fired power. Owing to the low operational loading, coal-fired power is the best alternative for improving acidification. The optimal scenario for acidification improvement occurred at 15% of the fuel cost. The impact decreased from 1.39 to 1.24 kg SO₂-eq./MWh. This reduction benefit was about 10.5% lower than the reference year. Regarding eco-efficiency at an optimum scenario level of 5%, the eco-efficiency value was − 12.4 $US/kg SO₂-eq. Considering the environmental and economical impacts, results indicated that the ratio of coal-fired steam turbine should be reduced.     

Abatement of agricultural pollution and economic incentives: The case of intensive livestock farming in France

Amongst possible economic incentives to encourage reduced nitrate contamination of water, this paper emphasizes a nitrogen tax as a possible solution. This finding is based on models estimated from panel data for 100 intensive livestock farms. For each farm a threshold is established (nitrogen units which can be spread per hectare without damage) above which there is an excess of nitrogen. The 100 farms can consequently be classified into two subsamples. The demand for nitrogen is derived for each sub-sample using the dual approach. Both categories are pooled together and a tobit model is estimated. This is used to derive total nitogen demand if all farms were under the threshold. A mineral nitrogen tax would lead to a reduced nitrate concentration in water supplies, because of a more efficient use of organic nitrogen together with a reduction in the use of mineral nitrogen in crop production.     

Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emission over 1991-2006 in China

This paper presents a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO₂ emission in China for the period 1991-2006 divided into three equal time intervals. The complete decomposition method developed by Sun is used to analyze the nature of the four factors: CO₂ intensity, energy intensity, structural changes and economic activity. The results show that economic activity has the largest positive effect in CO₂ emission changes in all the major economic sectors and China has achieved a considerable decrease in CO₂ emission mainly due to the improved energy intensity. However, the impact of CO₂ intensity and structural changes is relatively small. Structural changes only exhibit positive effect to the CO₂ mitigation in agricultural sector, and CO₂ intensity also contributes to the decrease of CO₂ emission in transportation sector. Moreover, a formula about CO₂ mitigation is presented in this paper, which shows that China has made a significant contribution to reducing global CO₂ emission.     

Endogenous technical progress induced by CO2 reduction policies: Simulation results for Austria

Almost all model simulations of CO₂ reduction policies focus on the effects of changes in the relative price of energy compared to the other factors of production caused by various energy taxation schemes. Typical results of these simulations as reported e.g. from the GREEN model of OECD show depressing effects on real GDP and upward pressures on inflation.We propose the hypothesis that these results may be biased due to an inadequate treatment of technical progress and proceed as follows: Firstly, instead of treating technical progress as exogenous we explicitly model theprice induced change of the composition of capital stock of households and producers with its effects on energy efficiency and investment demand. Secondly, we investigate to what extent adouble dividend policy which boosts CO₂ reduction technologies by special programs funded by the additional tax revenues differs from the mere price induced technological changes.We implement these propositions within the framework of a macroeconometric model for Austria which emphasizes substitution between energy and capital in providing energy services for households and producers. The following results are obtained: Firstly, we indicate how misleading the GDP effects may be if they result from lower energy intensities but still maintain the required energy services. Secondly, we investigate the effects of various energy taxation policies under different compensation schemes. Instead of merely relying on price-induced technological change we strongly advocate compensation programs which provide additional incentives for implementing high efficiency energy technologies such as cogeneration equipment or buildings with improved thermal standards.     

The dynamic linkages between economic growth,environmental quality and health in Greece

Increasing economic activity ignoring environmental quality may distort economic growth, leading to a negative rate. The expected deterioration of health in the near future may lead to further environmental degradation, with a continuation of a spiral-type path towards worsening growth and efforts to catch up with the developed economies. Τhis article examines the dynamic interdependence between economic activity, health quality and environmental degradation for Greece over the period 1960–2012. We employ Kuznets-type models and apply several co-integration techniques along with Granger causality tests. The results reveal strong causal effects, running from income towards CO₂ and infant mortality. In the multivariate context, a significant long-run impact is directed towards infant mortality, with economic growth performing rather exogenously.     

OTC trades and liquidity in the European carbon market more than meets the eye

ABSTRACT

This study investigates whether the previously reported price impact of OTC trades in the EU ETS can be attributed to their distinctively larger size (liquidity related) or to their discretionary feature (information related). The findings suggest that OTC trades induce volatility shocks that are higher in magnitude and faster resolved than those of solely high trading-intensity trades, which appears to be driven mainly by their presence, rather than by their size. An analysis of intraday price premia reveals that they are strategically placed by interacting with the organized market whenever their price and volatility impact is lower.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.