Estimation of time-varying price elasticity in 1970–1997 Japanese raw milk supply by structural time-series model

The price elasticity of raw milk supply in Japan is estimated over time by a structural time-series model in state space form, and the changes in elasticity are tested by the diagnosing test of de John and Penzer in 1998. The supply function is modeled with a local linear trend and a strictly exogenous autoregressive distributed lag price. The seasonality in the data is adjusted by a structural time-series model. In the 1970–1997 period, there were major dairy policy changes in Japan: a production adjustment, related penalties, and two-tier pricing. Hokkaido is the region that mainly provides the supply of raw milk for milk products, while Tofuken is the region that mainly produces drinking milk. The estimated price elasticity in Hokkaido became stable after imposition of the production adjustment. On the other hand, price elasticity in Tofuken became stable after the inflation of the mid-1970s. Price elasticity is estimated to be more inelastic as well as more likely to converge in inelasticity in Hokkaido than in Tofuken. We discuss the relationship between changes in dairy policy and changes in price elasticity.     

The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations

Although land plays a crucially important role in economic development and structural transformation, the causes and consequences of the evolution of farming land have received scant attention in recent decades. In this article, I document global and regional changes in aggregate agricultural land use, per capita land use, and average farm sizes. The spatial distribution of global farming land has changed dramatically, with developed countries substantially reducing their share of global agricultural land, and land‐abundant developing countries substantially increasing their share. In per capita terms, we see a rather different pattern, with average farm sizes increasing in rich and more commercialized agricultural systems, and generally declining or staying constant in poorer and less commercialized systems. These outcomes are the result of complex processes that are not always well understood. I conclude the article by suggesting new, or neglected, areas of research that would facilitate a better understanding of these critically important developments.     

Post–Uruguay Round price linkages between developed and developing countries: the case of rice and wheat markets

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets. However, the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets. This study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post–Uruguay Round period. Prices of two key commodities, long‐grain rice and medium‐hard wheat, are assembled for major exporters and producers. Results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post–Uruguay Round period. Developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets, and in most cases, changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries. Developing countries (e.g., Vietnam and Argentina) have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries' prices.     

Regional trade agreements and trade in agri-food products: evidence for the European Union from gravity modeling using disaggregated data

The proliferation of regional trade agreements in recent years has intensified the debate on the desirability of these agreements in themselves and their coexistence with multilateral free trade under the WTO. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing trade creation and trade diversion effects of the European Union on trade flows of six major agri‐food products from 1985 to 2000. An extended gravity model is estimated employing pooled data and generalized least squares methods. The results show that the developments in the EU since the mid‐1980s have served to boost agri‐food trade significantly among the members. Some of the growth in intra‐EU trade in agri‐food products came at the expense of nonmembers as the EU reduced the degree of relative openness to trade with nonmembers during this period and diverted trade from the rest of the world into the intra‐EU channels.     

Characteristics and hedonic pricing of differentiated beef demands

We estimate a CBS system model of U.S. derived demand for meat. We use this model (1) to examine relationships between three quality categories of beef and three other meats and (2) to simulate how taste shifts have affected demands for meats over time. We extend previous studies by disaggregating wholesale beef production into three quality categories: (1) USDA Choice grade or higher, (2) USDA Select or lower, and (3) cow and bull beef. Innovative features of our empirical model include a breakout of ‘table cuts’ into Choice and Select and the use of a hedonic characterization of the two breakouts to value “Choice‐ness” and “beef‐ness.” Our model demonstrates important shifts in separate demands for Choice and Select beef. We show that, separately, the demand for Choice‐grade beef declined in the 1980s and 1990s and the demand for Select beef increased, a departure from the relatively stable demand characterizations of more aggregated measures of combined Choice and Select beef.     

The impact of entry costs on export market participation in agriculture

Theoretical models of market entry imply that sunk costs are an important factor in the decision to export. Following Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) , we develop a simple model of foreign market participation and use a Bayesian method to estimate the resulting dynamic discrete‐choice model with lagged dependent variable. Employing a balanced panel data that follows 81 trading partners for 30 years from 1971 to 2000, we estimate our model and compute the marginal effect of sunk costs on the likelihood of export market participation. We find that such costs are economically and statistically important for trade in all of the six major agricultural commodities (Cereals, Dairy, Fish, Meat, Vegetables and Fruits, and Sugar), for agricultural producers in both developed and developing countries. We also find evidence suggesting that, in general, market access for both developed and developing exporters had improved in the years following the Uruguay round of trade negotiations (1995–2000).     

Acreage response in Pakistan: a co-integration approach

This paper seeks to quantify the acreage responses of wheat, cotton, sugarcane and rice in Pakistan using co‐integration techniques and impulse response analysis. Results indicate that acreages of wheat and basmati rice do not respond significantly to shocks in own‐price while cotton, sugarcane and high yielding variety (HYV) rice do, and that long‐run equilibrium is re‐established after about 4 years. Irrigated area is an important determinant of acreage.     

Supply response in Ethiopia: accounting for technical inefficiency

Few empirical studies of supply response using the profit function have accounted for technical inefficiency. Using farm‐level panel data from Ethiopia, this study examines the effect of incorporating technical inefficiency in estimating the supply response of peasant farmers. Two systems of output supply and input demand equations are estimated and compared: the conventional model in which technical efficiency is assumed and another in which technical inefficiency is explicitly incorporated. The model with technical inefficiency is preferred on grounds of theoretical consistency and improved estimates, although model comparison tests are not conclusive. Incorporation of inefficiency generally increases the magnitudes and the statistical significance of own price elasticities, substantially so in the case of fertilizer and fertilizer‐intensive crops, and alters the priority attached to nonprice factors. An important result is that only the specification with inefficiency reveals a significant effect of access to extension services on output. Only this specification finds that output increases with household size, which one expects as the farms in the sample are largely subsistence and producing for own consumption. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that farmers' response to incentives is considerably restricted by inefficiency, suggesting that the traditional model would overstate response by excluding the efficiency variable.     

Do farmers benefit from participating in specialty markets and cooperatives? The case of coffee marketing in Costa Rica1

Historically low prices in the conventional coffee market have caused financial and social hardship among coffee farmers. In the face of this crisis, specialty markets have attracted the attention of the international donor community. These market segments have shown consistent growth over the last decade and exhibit price premiums in international markets. Therefore, if higher prices are passed on to farmers, access to specialty markets could help to alleviate the crisis brought on by low prices in the conventional sector. The present study attempts to identify the factors that determine farmers' participation in specialized markets and whether participation in these markets leads to higher prices for farmers. A two-stage model is used to analyze farmers' marketing decisions and their effect on the prices received. This procedure allows us to control for the endogeneity bias introduced by the marketing choice. Our results indicate that farmers participating in the specialty coffee segment do in fact receive higher prices than those participating in conventional channels. Additionally, we find that participation in cooperatives has a positive impact on the probability that a farmer chooses to grow specialty coffee and analogously on the prices that they receive. Based on these results, it seems that efforts to increase participation in the specialty coffee segment and in cooperatives would help to lessen some of the hardships brought on by low prices in the conventional coffee sector.     

Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities

This study uses a random parameter probit estimation to examine the effects of tariff liberalization on the probability of establishing new trading relationships in meat commodities. Our simulation results indicate that the effects of tariff reductions decrease with distance, but increase with the level of development. The probabilities of trade increase at an increasing rate with the size of tariff reductions thus justifying calls for ambitious liberalization schemes. Canada and Mexico are the NAFTA countries that are most likely to export in response to EU tariff reductions on bovine and poultry meats, while Brazil and Argentina emerge as the MERCOSUR countries most likely to penetrate the EU bovine meat market after EU tariff reductions. Uruguay's probability to export poultry meat is most responsive to EU tariff reductions.     

Measuring the impact of road rehabilitation on spatial market efficiency in maize markets in Mozambique

This article analyzes the impact of road rehabilitation on the spatial market efficiency of maize markets in Mozambique. We estimate a modified version of the Parity Bounds Model (PBM) that allows us to test the impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency. This article seeks to contribute to the existing literature in three ways. First, a unique data set, where road rehabilitation episodes between market pairs are identified, is developed. Second, special care is devoted to estimation of transaction costs due to the sensitivity of the PBM model to the quality of transaction costs estimates. Finally, as opposed to most existing literature that focuses on relatively distant markets, the article focuses on spatially closed markets. We find that maize markets tend to be segmented due to high transport costs. Following road rehabilitation, inefficiency and average absolute price differentials tend to decrease, and market pairs have tended to shift toward autarky regimes. Overall, while the results point broadly toward a positive impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency, they are not as strong or as robust as one would like. Large increases in fuel prices likely offset the positive impacts of road rehabilitation on transaction costs, contributing to the increase in the probability of being in an autarky regime.     

The global bio‐economy

Throughout history, agriculture and natural resources have been used for the production of food, feed, fibre, fuel, and environmental goods. Recent developments in demand both in terms of quantity and quality, technology, and traditional energy and chemistry markets have reinforced the demand for nonfood applications. These developments, in combination with increased consumer demands for various food characteristics, have led to a rapidly growing and globally integrated “bio‐economy.” This article introduces and summarizes the plenary papers on the opportunities and challenges for the bio‐economy that were presented at the 28th triennial conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) in Brazil. The following aspects of the bio‐economy are covered: finance, volatility, poverty, conflict, productivity, investment, resource constraints, and governance.     

The role of retail market power and state regulations in the heterogeneity of farm‐retail price transmission of private label and branded products

Given the leading role of private label brands in the fluid milk market, it is of special interest to focus on possible differences in farm‐retail price transmission between private label and branded milk as well as the causes of heterogeneity. This article examines the heterogeneous effects of private label and branded products on price transmission in the fluid milk market using a panel threshold asymmetric error correction model. Results indicate that upward retail‐price adjustment is faster than the downward price adjustment for both private label and branded milk. The speed of adjustment of private label products is significantly faster than branded products in three different price regimes. We further investigate the reasons of heterogeneity in farm‐retail price transmission of private label milk. We find that both retailer market power and state pricing regulations contribute to the heterogeneity in asymmetric price transmission. Higher retailer market power causes retail prices of private label milk to rise faster and to fall slower. The existence of a state pricing regulation slows down the adjustment speed of retail prices of private labels back to the long‐run equilibrium, regardless of whether the retail price is low or high.     

Capturing zero‐trade values in gravity equations of trade: an analysis of protectionism in agro‐food sectors

With significant improvements in its theoretical underpinnings, the gravity model has gained renewed interest in the agro‐food trade literature. Notwithstanding, there is a dearth of literature examining the relative trade restrictiveness of tariff barriers across a broad range of agro‐food sectors. This represents an important research gap, which this study sets out to fill. Furthermore, this research reconciles the application of zero‐inflated models with a sectorally disaggregated analysis. More specifically, employing a fully specified gravity equation, a Poisson estimator and variants of the Poisson model (Negative Binomial, Zero‐Inflated Poisson, and Zero‐Inflated Negative Binomial) provide statistically significant and theoretically consistent estimates, while allowing for the inclusion of zero‐trade values. A panel data model with fixed effects is also employed to improve the estimation of the parameters of interest. Estimation results reveal that in the vast majority of sectors examined, import tariffs are found to be statistically significant, whereas export refunds exhibit a statistically smaller role due to the nonsystematic nature of their application in world food markets. Model simulations of tariff barrier eliminations reveal limited trade gains, although there is encouraging evidence of “low” and “lower middle” per capita income country trade gains in wheat, red meat, dairy, sugar, and (particularly) rice markets.     

The impact of coffee certification on small‐scale producers’ livelihoods: a case study from the Jimma Zone,Ethiopia

What is the impact of product certification on small‐scale farmers’ livelihoods? To what extent does the participation of Ethiopian small‐scale coffee farmers in certified local cooperative structures improve their socioeconomic situation? To answer these questions, this article employs household data of 249 coffee farmers from six different cooperatives collected in the Jimma zone of Southwestern Ethiopia in 2009. Findings show that the certification of coffee cooperatives has in total a low impact on small‐scale coffee producers’ livelihoods mainly due to (1) low productivity, (2) insignificant price premium, and (3) poor access to credit and information from the cooperative. Differences in production and organizational capacities between the local cooperatives are mirrored in the extent of the certification benefits for the smallholders. “Good” cooperatives have reaped the benefits of certification, whereas “bad” ones did not fare well. In this regard the “cooperative effect” overlies the “certification effect.”     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

Measuring and causes of inequality in farm sizes in the United States

This article examines the notion of farm size inequality expressed as sales inequality in the United States. The farm size index (FSI) is developed as a measure of farm size inequality. FSIs are calculated for the farming sector in all 50 states and large variation in farm size across the states and over time is determined. The largest FSIs are calculated for a number of Southern, Southwestern, and Pacific states. Increasing FSIs over time are observed in all states as well. The spatial and temporal (between 1987 and 1997) differences in FSIs are explained by running a pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series model. The most influential variables accounting for the differences have to do with the ownership structure, where a larger presence of individual and family farms relative to corporate farms and cooperatives leads to a lower degree of farm size inequality. Also, states and regions having relatively larger number of farms owned by minorities have higher FSIs. Shrinking opportunities in the agricultural sector relative to the rest of the economy, primarily services, are reflected in a declining share of agricultural sector state income in total gross state product (GSP). This in turn leads to an increase in the farming sector's FSI suggesting that only larger, more profitable operations are the likely candidates to pursue farming activities. Finally, grains farming regions have all lower degree of farm size inequality than livestock or fruits and vegetables regions. Profitable grains farming requires relatively large farm size and equipment investments, which leads to a relatively homogeneous structure of grains farms. A larger variation in the size of profitable farm operations is possible in fruits and vegetables and livestock. This leads to the existence of a large number of very small but still sustainable farms, and a relatively small number of large farms that capture most of market sales share.