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1.
We estimate a CBS system model of U.S. derived demand for meat. We use this model (1) to examine relationships between three quality categories of beef and three other meats and (2) to simulate how taste shifts have affected demands for meats over time. We extend previous studies by disaggregating wholesale beef production into three quality categories: (1) USDA Choice grade or higher, (2) USDA Select or lower, and (3) cow and bull beef. Innovative features of our empirical model include a breakout of ‘table cuts’ into Choice and Select and the use of a hedonic characterization of the two breakouts to value “Choice‐ness” and “beef‐ness.” Our model demonstrates important shifts in separate demands for Choice and Select beef. We show that, separately, the demand for Choice‐grade beef declined in the 1980s and 1990s and the demand for Select beef increased, a departure from the relatively stable demand characterizations of more aggregated measures of combined Choice and Select beef. 相似文献
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Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in the level of commodity prices. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may have inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated—would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The empirical results provide scant evidence that long-only index funds impact returns across commodity futures markets. 相似文献
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This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre‐committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre‐committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre‐committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre‐committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups. 相似文献
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This paper seeks to quantify the acreage responses of wheat, cotton, sugarcane and rice in Pakistan using co‐integration techniques and impulse response analysis. Results indicate that acreages of wheat and basmati rice do not respond significantly to shocks in own‐price while cotton, sugarcane and high yielding variety (HYV) rice do, and that long‐run equilibrium is re‐established after about 4 years. Irrigated area is an important determinant of acreage. 相似文献
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Dragan Miljkovic 《Agricultural Economics》2005,33(1):21-27
This article examines the notion of farm size inequality expressed as sales inequality in the United States. The farm size index (FSI) is developed as a measure of farm size inequality. FSIs are calculated for the farming sector in all 50 states and large variation in farm size across the states and over time is determined. The largest FSIs are calculated for a number of Southern, Southwestern, and Pacific states. Increasing FSIs over time are observed in all states as well. The spatial and temporal (between 1987 and 1997) differences in FSIs are explained by running a pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series model. The most influential variables accounting for the differences have to do with the ownership structure, where a larger presence of individual and family farms relative to corporate farms and cooperatives leads to a lower degree of farm size inequality. Also, states and regions having relatively larger number of farms owned by minorities have higher FSIs. Shrinking opportunities in the agricultural sector relative to the rest of the economy, primarily services, are reflected in a declining share of agricultural sector state income in total gross state product (GSP). This in turn leads to an increase in the farming sector's FSI suggesting that only larger, more profitable operations are the likely candidates to pursue farming activities. Finally, grains farming regions have all lower degree of farm size inequality than livestock or fruits and vegetables regions. Profitable grains farming requires relatively large farm size and equipment investments, which leads to a relatively homogeneous structure of grains farms. A larger variation in the size of profitable farm operations is possible in fruits and vegetables and livestock. This leads to the existence of a large number of very small but still sustainable farms, and a relatively small number of large farms that capture most of market sales share. 相似文献
6.
The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets. However, the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets. This study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post–Uruguay Round period. Prices of two key commodities, long‐grain rice and medium‐hard wheat, are assembled for major exporters and producers. Results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post–Uruguay Round period. Developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets, and in most cases, changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries. Developing countries (e.g., Vietnam and Argentina) have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries' prices. 相似文献
7.
Few empirical studies of supply response using the profit function have accounted for technical inefficiency. Using farm‐level panel data from Ethiopia, this study examines the effect of incorporating technical inefficiency in estimating the supply response of peasant farmers. Two systems of output supply and input demand equations are estimated and compared: the conventional model in which technical efficiency is assumed and another in which technical inefficiency is explicitly incorporated. The model with technical inefficiency is preferred on grounds of theoretical consistency and improved estimates, although model comparison tests are not conclusive. Incorporation of inefficiency generally increases the magnitudes and the statistical significance of own price elasticities, substantially so in the case of fertilizer and fertilizer‐intensive crops, and alters the priority attached to nonprice factors. An important result is that only the specification with inefficiency reveals a significant effect of access to extension services on output. Only this specification finds that output increases with household size, which one expects as the farms in the sample are largely subsistence and producing for own consumption. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that farmers' response to incentives is considerably restricted by inefficiency, suggesting that the traditional model would overstate response by excluding the efficiency variable. 相似文献
8.
Historically low prices in the conventional coffee market have caused financial and social hardship among coffee farmers. In the face of this crisis, specialty markets have attracted the attention of the international donor community. These market segments have shown consistent growth over the last decade and exhibit price premiums in international markets. Therefore, if higher prices are passed on to farmers, access to specialty markets could help to alleviate the crisis brought on by low prices in the conventional sector. The present study attempts to identify the factors that determine farmers' participation in specialized markets and whether participation in these markets leads to higher prices for farmers. A two-stage model is used to analyze farmers' marketing decisions and their effect on the prices received. This procedure allows us to control for the endogeneity bias introduced by the marketing choice. Our results indicate that farmers participating in the specialty coffee segment do in fact receive higher prices than those participating in conventional channels. Additionally, we find that participation in cooperatives has a positive impact on the probability that a farmer chooses to grow specialty coffee and analogously on the prices that they receive. Based on these results, it seems that efforts to increase participation in the specialty coffee segment and in cooperatives would help to lessen some of the hardships brought on by low prices in the conventional coffee sector. 相似文献
9.
This article analyzes the impact of road rehabilitation on the spatial market efficiency of maize markets in Mozambique. We estimate a modified version of the Parity Bounds Model (PBM) that allows us to test the impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency. This article seeks to contribute to the existing literature in three ways. First, a unique data set, where road rehabilitation episodes between market pairs are identified, is developed. Second, special care is devoted to estimation of transaction costs due to the sensitivity of the PBM model to the quality of transaction costs estimates. Finally, as opposed to most existing literature that focuses on relatively distant markets, the article focuses on spatially closed markets. We find that maize markets tend to be segmented due to high transport costs. Following road rehabilitation, inefficiency and average absolute price differentials tend to decrease, and market pairs have tended to shift toward autarky regimes. Overall, while the results point broadly toward a positive impact of road rehabilitation on spatial efficiency, they are not as strong or as robust as one would like. Large increases in fuel prices likely offset the positive impacts of road rehabilitation on transaction costs, contributing to the increase in the probability of being in an autarky regime. 相似文献
10.
Maize (Zea mays) shortages and maize price instability continue to occur in Mozambique in spite of policy reforms and great capacity for increased production in northern Mozambique. This study measured the efficiency of spatial maize price arbitrage in Mozambique's post‐reform period. Spatial price inefficiency does not seem to explain why food shortages continue to occur in Mozambique, suggesting nonprice market constraints such as poor infrastructure and poor market institutions as more likely explanations. Baulch's spatial efficiency test indicated that it is not profitable to ship maize from northern surplus maize regions to southern Mozambique. Records of interregional maize shipments show that indeed grain is not being shipped from the north to the south. Market liberalization may have improved spatial price efficiency, but high transfer costs still limit trade and potential benefits from freeing markets. Under these circumstances, food shortages and price instability are likely to continue. 相似文献
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Margherita Scoppola 《Agricultural Economics》2007,37(2-3):277-291
A large body of literature has examined international grain trade in imperfectly competitive models. The article develops a two-stage duopoly model that considers a private trader and a State Trading Enterprise (STE) competing on a foreign market. The key difference between the private trader and the STE is their international organization; while the STE makes use of external agents to export, the private firm may choose to internalize international transactions. The game is solved for different modes of competition and under both assumptions of homogeneous and differentiated products, in order to assess how these assumptions affect the outcome of the game. The results of the game are examined by using numerical examples. The analysis shows that external shocks on export markets may result in a change of market structure and, consequently, of market shares. These effects depend on the initial market structure. Furthermore, the degree of product differentiation and the assumed mode of competition significantly affect the relative values of transaction and fixed costs at which the market structure changes. 相似文献
14.
This study uses a random parameter probit estimation to examine the effects of tariff liberalization on the probability of establishing new trading relationships in meat commodities. Our simulation results indicate that the effects of tariff reductions decrease with distance, but increase with the level of development. The probabilities of trade increase at an increasing rate with the size of tariff reductions thus justifying calls for ambitious liberalization schemes. Canada and Mexico are the NAFTA countries that are most likely to export in response to EU tariff reductions on bovine and poultry meats, while Brazil and Argentina emerge as the MERCOSUR countries most likely to penetrate the EU bovine meat market after EU tariff reductions. Uruguay's probability to export poultry meat is most responsive to EU tariff reductions. 相似文献
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Rice trade liberalization in the Philippines should decrease domestic rice prices impacting both agricultural wages and the welfare of agricultural wage earners. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationship between rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines using a neoclassical wage determination model. Three empirical frameworks are used—a cointegration/error correction framework, which assumes nonstationary variables in long-run equilibrium, a first difference model that assumes nonstationary variables but no long-run equilibrium, and an OLS framework that assumes the model variables are stationary. Conclusions are reasonably robust across the three empirical frameworks with wages adjusting positively to rice price changes with a short-run elasticity of 0.29 to 0.57, and a long-run elasticity of 0.70 to 1.0 in preferred models. An analysis of welfare implications suggests that although households that are heavily reliant on agricultural wages for income will be adversely affected by rice price decreases, other households will benefit. 相似文献
17.
Gaminda Ganewatta Robert Waschik Sisira Jayasuriya Geoff Edwards 《Agricultural Economics》2005,33(3):341-350
Governments in many developing countries, influenced by the experience of the East Asian newly industrialized countries, have adopted policies to enhance domestic processing of primary commodities as a tool for accelerating employment growth, export revenues, and development. Sri Lanka has traditionally exported tea in the form of bulk (commodity) teas, but “value‐added” teas such as packaged teas, tea bags, etc., have expanded in recent years. This article examines factors affecting the processing of value‐added tea products in Sri Lanka by modeling export supply behavior. Estimates of the long‐run relationship and short‐run dynamics of export supply are presented and discussed. The price of value‐added tea relative to bulk tea, and industry capacity, are identified as the main determinants of export supply, while exchange rate changes have no discernible effect. The policy implications of the analysis for enhancing further expansion of such value‐added teas are presented. These are of interest for both policy makers and development analysts. In particular, the reasons that undermine the effectiveness of exchange rate policy as an instrument to stimulate value addition of primary products have much relevance for similar developing countries. 相似文献
18.
Marie Gabrielle Piketty Lucie Weissleder Hildo Meirelles de Souza Filho Mário Otávio Batalha Marcel Adenäuer Arno Becker 《Agricultural Economics》2009,40(4):447-457
Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions. 相似文献
19.
The proliferation of regional trade agreements in recent years has intensified the debate on the desirability of these agreements in themselves and their coexistence with multilateral free trade under the WTO. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing trade creation and trade diversion effects of the European Union on trade flows of six major agri‐food products from 1985 to 2000. An extended gravity model is estimated employing pooled data and generalized least squares methods. The results show that the developments in the EU since the mid‐1980s have served to boost agri‐food trade significantly among the members. Some of the growth in intra‐EU trade in agri‐food products came at the expense of nonmembers as the EU reduced the degree of relative openness to trade with nonmembers during this period and diverted trade from the rest of the world into the intra‐EU channels. 相似文献
20.
Do stronger intellectual property rights (IPRs) induce more agricultural trade? Based on panel data for 60 countries during 1990–2000 and using a dynamic panel data model, this article assesses whether and how national differences in IPRs affect the trade flow of planting seeds imports from the United States. The empirical results show that whether or not a country adheres to IPRs agreements has no discernible impact on planting seeds that are imported from the United States, implying that the strengthening of IPRs seems not to induce more agricultural trade. This result sheds some light on the debate in the theoretical literature on the importance of IPRs and trade. 相似文献