Sunk costs and fairness in incomplete information bargaining

We study a bilateral trading relationship in which one agent, the seller, can make a nonrecoverable investment in order to generate potential gains from trade. Afterwards, the seller makes a price offer that the buyer can either accept or reject. If agents are fairminded, sellers who are known by the buyer to have high investment costs are predicted to charge higher prices. If the investment cost is private information, low-cost sellers should price more aggressively and high-cost sellers less aggressively than under complete information, giving rise to disagreement and/or underinvestment. Our experiment support these predictions.     

Sunk capital,unions and the hold-up problem: Theory and evidence from cross-country sectoral data

In this paper we study the hold-up problem by considering the effect of union bargaining power on the level of investment per worker across sectors characterised by different levels of sunk capital investment. We develop a search and matching model with heterogeneous sectors and ex-post collective wage bargaining and test the predictions of the model using a difference-in-difference approach on manufacturing sector data in a set of OECD countries during the period 1980–2000. We find that union power reduces investment per worker particularly in sunk capital intensive industries. We refine our empirical analysis showing that the underlying hold-up problem is exacerbated when strikes are not regulated after a collective contract is signed and there is no arbitration, while the presence of social pacts may sustain cooperative equilibria that alleviate the hold-up problem. Our results are robust to a series of controls and possible endogeneity of union power.     

Contractual signaling,relationship-specific investment and exclusive agreements

I analyze a model of hold-up with asymmetric information at the contracting stage. The asymmetry of information concerns the value of trade with external parties. I show that contractual signaling and efficiency of investment can conflict if only quantity is contractible. This conflict generates inefficient equilibria in terms of investment. Contracting on exclusivity in addition to quantity resolves the conflict and consequently eliminates the inefficiency of investment.     

Simple contracts, renegotiation under asymmetric information, and the hold-up problem

In this article it is demonstrated that voluntary bargaining over a collective decision under asymmetric information may well lead to ex post efficiency if the default decision is non-trivial. It is argued that the default decision may be interpreted as a ‘simple’ contract that the parties have written ex ante. This result is used in order to show that simple unconditional contracts which are renegotiated may allow the hold-up problem to be solved, even if the parties’ valuations are private information.     

Regulating a risk-averse firm under incomplete information

We examine the optimal regulatory policy for a risk-averse firm when the firm is imperfectly informed about its efficiency parameter for a project at the time of contracting. The firm’s risk aversion shifts the optimal regulatory policy from a fixed-price contract to a cost-plus contract. The optimal regulatory policy entails undereffort by an inefficient firm as in Laffont and Tirole (J Polit Econ 94(3):614–641, 1986) and the effort distortion increases as the firm becomes more risk-averse. Further, the regulator benefits from sequential contracting with the firm where the firm chooses contract terms gradually as it acquires information, albeit the benefit diminishes as the firm becomes more risk-averse.      

International support of climate change policies in developing countries: Strategic, moral and fairness aspects

International transfers in climate policy channeled from the industrialized to the developing world either support the mitigation of climate change or the adaptation to global warming. From a purely allocative point of view, transfers supporting mitigation tend to be Pareto-improving whereas this is not very likely in the case of adaptation support. We illustrate this by regarding transfer schemes currently applied under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto framework.However, if we enrich the analysis by integrating distributional aspects, we find that international adaptation funding may help both the developing and developed world. Interestingly this is not due to altruistic incentives, but due to follow-up effects on international negotiations on climate change mitigation. We argue that the lack of fairness perceived by developing countries in the international climate policy arena can be reduced by the support of adaptation in these countries. As we show - taking into account different fairness concepts - this might raise the prospects of success in international negotiations on climate change. Yet, we find that the influence of transfers may induce different fairness effects on climate change mitigation negotiations to run counter.We discuss whether current transfer schemes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto framework adequately serve the distributive and allocative objectives pursued in international climate policy.     

Fairness, errors and the power of competition

In this paper, we investigate the effects of competition on bargained outcomes. We show that the neglect of either fairness concerns or decision errors will prevent a satisfactory understanding of how competition affects bargaining. We conducted experiments which demonstrate that introducing a small amount of competition to a bilateral ultimatum game – by adding just one competitor – induces large behavioral changes among responders and proposers, causing large changes in accepted offers. Models that assume that all people are self-interested and fully rational do not adequately explain these changes. We show that a model which combines heterogeneous fairness concerns with decision errors correctly predicts the comparative static effects of changes in competition. Moreover, the combined model is remarkably good at predicting the entire distribution of offers in many different competitive situations.     

Bargaining with asymmetric information in non-stationary markets

Summary. The Rubinstein and Wolinsky bargaining-in-markets framework is modified by the introduction of asymmetric information and non-stationarity. Non-stationarity is introduced in the form of an arbitrary stochastic Markov process which captures the dynamics of market entry and pairwise matching. A new technique is used for establishing existence and characterizing the unique outcome of a non-stationary market equilibrium. The impact of market supply and demand on bilateral bargaining outcomes and matching probabilities is explored. The results are useful for examining such questions as why coordination failures and macroeconomic output fluctuations are correlated with real and monetary shocks. Received: July 22, 1994; revised version: January 21, 1998     

The evolution of conventions under incomplete information

Summary. We formulate an evolutionary learning process with trembles for static games of incomplete information. For many games, if the amount of trembling is small, play will be in accordance with the games (strict) Bayesian equilibria most of the time. This supports the notion of Bayesian equilibrium. Often the process will select a specific equilibrium. We study an extension to incomplete information of the prototype conflict known as Chicken and find that the equilibrium selection by evolutionary learning may well be in favor of inefficient Bayesian equilibria where some types of players fail to coordinate.Received: 17 March 2003, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72.     

Production and financial policies under asymmetric information

We propose an extension of the standard general equilibrium model with production and incomplete markets to situations in which (i) private investors have limited information on the returns of specific assets, (ii) managers of firms have limited information on the preferences of individual shareholders. The extension is obtained by the assumption that firms are not traded directly but grouped into ‘sectorial’ funds. In our model the financial policy of the firm is not irrelevant. We establish the existence of equilibria and discuss the nature of the inefficiencies introduced by the presence of asymmetric information. We also illustrate the properties of the model in three simple examples. We would like to thank Alberto Bisin, Armando Dominioni, Piero Gottardi, Tito Pietra, Paolo Siconolfi, and an anonymous referee for useful suggestions and comments.     

Common priors under incomplete information: a unification

Summary. While the meaningfulness of the common prior assumption (CPA) under incomplete information has been established recently by various authors, its epistemic rationale has not yet been adequately clarified. To do so, we provide a characterization of the CPA in terms of a new condition called “Mutual Calibration”, and argue that it constitutes a more transparent and more primitive formalization of the Harsanyi Doctrine than the existing characterizations. Our analysis unifies the understanding of the CPA under incomplete information and clarifies the role of higher-order expectations and of the difference between situations with only two and those with at least three agents. In the concluding section, the analysis is applied to the problem of defining Bayesian consistency of the intertemporal beliefs of a single-agent with imperfect memory. The CPA yields a notion of “Bayesian updating without a prior”. Received: March 24, 2000; revised version: April 27, 2000     

Regulation of common property resources under private information about resource externalities

Optimal marginal investment incentives and optimal entry regulations are developed for a case where heterogeneous firms exploit a common property natural resource. The government’s objectives are to correct for resource externalities and to tax away the resource rent. Both individual output and efficiency levels are subject to private information, i.e. it is a model with multi-agency, externalities, and countervailing incentives. There are asymmetric information about the net revenue of the firm and the size of the resource externalities that the firm inflicts on the other firms in the industry. The latter implies that external effects are present both in the firms’ net incomes and in the information rents.     

在科学发展观下坚持效率和公平的统一

在收入分配领域,效率和公平的关系从根本上看是统一的。树立全面、科学的效率观,是落实科学发展观的基础。更加注重社会公平,有利于扩大内需、缓解收入分配差距和促进经济结构的调整,为转变经济发展方式创造有利条件。当前促进社会公平的重点,是落实初次分配的公平。在理顺分配关系的基础上,采取多种措施提高低收入群体的劳动报酬,并提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重。     

An experimental test of observational learning under imperfect information

Summary. Nearly all observational learning models assume that individuals can observe all the decisions that have previously been made. In reality, such perfect information is rarely available. To explore the difference between observational learning under perfect and imperfect information, this paper takes an experimental look at a situation in which individuals learn by observing the behavior of their immediate predecessors. Our experimental design uses the procedures of Çelen and Kariv [9] and is based on the theory of Çelen and Kariv [10]. We find that imitation is much less frequent when subjects have imperfect information, even less frequent than the theory predicts. Further, while we find strong evidence that under perfect information a form of generalized Bayesian behavior adequately explains behavior in the laboratory, under imperfect information behavior is not consistent even with this generalization of Bayesian behavior.Received: 29 January 2002, Revised: 12 May 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C92, D8. Correspondence to: Boaçhan ÇelenWe completed most of this paper when we were both graduate students at New York University. This research was supported by the Center for Experimental Social Sciences (C.E.S.S.) and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics at New York University. We are grateful to Andrew Schotter for his guidance and to an anonymous referee for his comments. We benefited from the expositional suggestions of William Baumol. We also acknowledge helpful discussions of Colin Camerer, Liran Einav, Xavier Gabaix, Douglas Gale, Charles Holt, David Laibson, and Matthew Rabin. We also benefited from suggestions by the participants of the 2002 International ESA Meeting and seminars at several universities.     

Altruism, equity, and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: an encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent theories of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as altruism-, equity-, or reciprocity-based. We outline the qualitative differences in prediction these alternative explanations yield in a gift-exchange game. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.     

信息不对称条件下的债务约束机制

债务水平表达了企业经营的信息,投资者利用这种信息可以评估企业的质量。在信息不对称条件下,债务首先成为红利的有效替代形式,具有减少企业自由现金流的作用,从而对管理者起到市场监督和提高资金使用效率的作用;其次,当企业出现债务违约时,就要进入破产程序,且由债权人决定是否清算或重组,为避免这种情况的发生,企业管理者将债务保持在最优水平;再者,债务期限结构的匹配模型,使得企业管理者将债务的期限结构保持在科学合理的状态,从而实现资本结构的优化。     

Cooperative vs. non-cooperative R&D incentives under incomplete information

This paper studies incentives for cooperative research vis-à-vis non-cooperative research in an incomplete information framework. We show that with quantity competition under asymmetric information, the expected payoff from non-cooperative research goes down compared to the case of symmetric information; hence research joint venture incentives of the firms are larger under asymmetric information. In either case, however, the larger is the size of the cost-reducing innovation the lower is the incentive for cooperative research. Finally, in our model, incomplete information does not affect the consumers' welfare, but the firms become worse off.     

Compensation payments for habitat heterogeneity: Existence, efficiency, and fairness considerations

Compensation payments for voluntary conservation measures have become an important tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. Each year substantial financial resources are spent on such measures, particularly in the context of agri-environmental schemes. In Europe, a debate has started on whether this money is spent effectively. In response to this debate it has been suggested that a portfolio of measures leading to habitat heterogeneity be implemented. Although payments for heterogeneous conservation measures have been analysed in the literature, it has never been questioned that payments can be designed in a way that encourages enough land users to carry out each conservation measure within a portfolio of measures. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such payments do not always exist. Moreover, in cases where payments for habitat heterogeneity exist the payment scheme may require overcompensation of the land users, posing a limit to both efficiency and fairness considerations.     

Asymmetric information and survival in financial markets

Summary. In the evolutionary setting for a financial market developed by Blume and Easley (1992), we consider an infinitely repeated version of a model á la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) with asymmetrically informed traders. Informed traders observe the realisation of a payoff relevant signal before making their portfolio decisions. Uninformed traders do not have direct access to this kind of information, but can partially infer it from market prices. As a counterpart for their privileged information, informed traders pay a per period cost. As a result, information acquisition triggers a trade-off in our setting. We prove that, so long as information is costly, uninformed traders survive.JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D82, G14.I am deeply indebted to Luca Anderlini for his helpful guidance. I also benefited from discussion with Larry Blume, David Easley, Jayasri Dutta, Thorsten Hens, Hamid Sabourian, Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé and Hyun Song Shin. Useful comments came from an anonymous referee and participants to seminars in Barcelona, Bielefeld, Cambridge, Manchester, Oxford, Rotterdam, Venice, Zurich, to the PhD Awards Italian tour in Rome, Naples, Padova and Milan, and to ESEM99 and EEA99 in Santiago de Compostela.