Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model

This study examines two tax policies for achieving fiscal sustainability in Japan: (i) an increase in consumption tax and (ii) consumption tax hike combined with inflation. To evaluate these policies from both fiscal and welfare perspectives, I develop a multi-period overlapping generations model with money. The results reveal that, compared to the first policy, the second policy can substantially delay the timing of and curb the increase in consumption tax through seigniorage revenue. This suggests seigniorage could be a useful tool for the Japanese government in resolving its fiscal problems. In addition, in an aging Japan, the second policy can enhance future generations’ utility. Because inflation reduces money holdings and utility of the elderly, policies that cause inflation in the present but reduce it in the future improve the utility of future generations. From a social welfare viewpoint, such policies are desirable in a government that has foresight.     

A Minskyan account of emerging currencies dynamics

Abstract

The currencies of a few emerging market economies (EMEs) have been following a specific dynamic since the early 2000s: They are strongly subordinated to international financial conditions, appreciating in moments of tranquility and presenting sharp depreciations in peaks of uncertainty. What is the mechanism behind it? To answer this question, this article applies the Minskyan framework to the context of money managers and their portfolio allocation decisions. The approach provides a detailed account of the mechanisms of the appreciation phase, thus complementing the emerging currencies’ literature that is focused on crisis episodes. The result is a dynamic characterized by deviation-amplifying systems—the opposite of the mainstream view where fundamentals lead to an equilibrium-seeking mechanism. Apart from these contributions to the exchange rate literature, it enriches the Minskyan literature for providing a broader reading of the original framework that allows it to be transposed to a larger set of contexts and for identifying the main elements to be translated in an analysis of a different context.     

Capital taxation in a dynamic general equilibrium setting

The familiar two-factor, two-commodity incidence model is extended to a dynamic setting in which the supply of capital is variable and the government can use money or bonds to balance its budget in addition to neutral lump sum taxation. The dynamic incidence effects of a sectoral tax on capital are qualitatively similar to the static incidence effects when the government balances its budget with neutral taxes, but are qualitatively different when the government uses money or bonds. In this case, while capital bears the burden of the tax in the short run, it is able to shift it in the long run.     

Comparing Tax and Tax Reallocation Payments in Financing Rail Noise Abatement Programmes: Results from a Stated Choice Valuation Study in Italy

The paper examines the use of stated choice experiments (SC) to assess the economic value of alternative rail noise reduction interventions on the Brennero railway in Italy. The paper formally tests the econometric robustness of the SC estimates under three payment regimes: (a) a regional tax, where consumers must trade off welfare gains due to noise reduction for part of their income; (b) a transport tax reallocation scheme, where consumers must trade off a part of the tax payments that are currently spent on the public transport sector; and (c) an administration tax reallocation scheme, where consumers must trade off a part of the tax payments that are currently spent on the administration sector. The test results are varied. On the one hand, the SC estimates are found to be statistically different for the tax reallocation and the tax introduction regimes. This confirms previous valuation research results, and thus reiterates the hypothesis that states the inequality between marginal values of private income and public money. On the other hand, the SC estimates are not found to be statistically different for the two proposed tax reallocation regimes, suggesting that, in the case study investigated here, the marginal value of public money does not depend upon the budget source.     

Optimal nonlinear income taxation with a finite population

In the standard optimal income taxation problem, tax payments depend only on each consumer's own actions. Piketty [J. Econ. Theory 61 (1993) 23-41] shows that, if one individual's tax schedule depends on others’ actions and the government knows the exact ability distribution, it can implement any undistorted allocation as the unique revelation game outcome. If some individuals misreveal their types, Piketty's mechanism may assign infeasible allocations. We require that tax schedules must balance the government budget for every possible vector of revelations. When individuals reveal their type by simple announcements, all undistorted allocations can be still implemented, even with off-equilibrium feasibility constraints.     

Current global imbalances and the Keynes Plan: A Keynesian approach for reforming the international monetary system

This paper proposes a “logical experiment”, illustrating how alternative international monetary systems may produce opposite results in the global economy. In the current organisation, “key currencies” work as international money. Keynes, by contrast, proposed that this role should be assigned to a supranational, “credit” money. While the world currently lives in an asymmetric regime, which lead to what has been defined as a “balance of financial terror”, Keynes tried to achieve a more peaceful type of “international balance”. I argue that the structural reform and the technical provisions proposed by the “Keynes Plan” may still – at least in principle – provide useful remedies for international disequilibria, by remedying the asymmetries of the current international payments architecture and helping to curb both inflationary and deflationary pressures on the world economy.     

Avoiding hyperinflation: Evidence from a laboratory economy

Hyperinflation results from the creation and injection of fiat money into the economy. Using laboratory methods, this paper examines conditions under which fiat money can serve as a medium of exchange in a finite horizon economy while the government is active in the markets for goods. Consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis, issuing new fiat currency does not stabilize a hyperinflation; however, restricting government spending to the amount of tax revenue or reverting to backed money does. These findings are consistent with previous studies of historical data; thus this work confirms those findings from an alternative data source, the laboratory.     

Attracting private investment: Tax reduction,investment subsidy,or both?

This paper uses a real-option model to examine the net benefit to a government from using tax cut and/or investment subsidy as incentives to induce immediate investment. Although earlier papers generally concluded that investment subsidy dominates tax cut, it is observed that many governments use a combination of subsidy and tax cut. We show that, when the government uses a different discount rate from private firms, and when it has to borrow money to provide an investment subsidy, it is possible to get an internal optimum; that is, it might be optimal for the government to provide an investment subsidy as well as charge a positive tax rate on the profits from the project. Thus, we provide an explanation for the puzzling fact that many governments provide an investment subsidy to a firm while simultaneously taxing its profits.     

A Signaling Model of Multiple Currencies

In this paper, we demonstrate that it may be socially optimal for countries to have different currencies, even though they have no possibility of independently controlling their money supplies. We assume that agents have heterogeneous preferences over goods of different national origin, and that these preferences are private information. We prove three results. First, for a range of parameters, it is optimal for different countries to have different currencies so that buyers can more efficiently signal their preferences over goods to sellers. Second, if it is socially optimal to have different national currencies, then it is socially optimal for sellers to sell lower quantities to buyers bearing foreign currency. Finally, it is only necessary to have two monies if cross-country trade is optimal.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: F33     

Taxation and market work: is Scandinavia an outlier?

This paper argues that it is essential to explicitly consider how the government spends tax revenues when assessing the effects of tax rates on aggregate hours of market work. Different forms of government spending imply different elasticities of hours of work with regard to tax rates. I illustrate the empirical importance of this point by addressing the issue of hours worked and tax rates in three sets of economies: the US, Continental Europe and Scandinavia. While tax rates are highest in Scandinavia, hours worked in Scandinavia are significantly higher than they are in Continental Europe. I argue that differences in the form of government spending can potentially account for this pattern. An early version of the paper was presented at the 2003 conference in honor of Prescott being award the Nemmers Prize in Economics, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. I have benefitted from the comments of numerous seminar participants, but would like to particularly thank Robert Lucas, Ed Prescott, and Nancy Stokey, as well as two anonymous referees, Stephen Parente and Anne Villamil for useful comments. I thank the NSF for financial support.     

改善民生：精兵简政，势在必行——兼论财政支出的合理性

政府的财政收入主要来自于税收,纳税人的钱只能有两种用处,一是维护国家机器的正常运转;二是改善民生。而且二者是此消彼长,即在财政收入一定的条件下,要想增加社会保障和社会福利,就必须减少行政事业费开支,而达到这一目的的唯一出路就是精兵简政。精兵简政不仅可以节省资金,用来解决民生问题,而且只有精兵简政才能提升军队的战斗力,只有精兵简政才能提高工作效率,只有精兵简政才能减少权力寻租,只有精兵简政才能实现高薪养廉,只有精兵简政才能降低税费收缴,从而有利于增加生产,扩大就业。     

县乡财政解困与财政体制创新

发生在中国的县乡财政困难 ,是社会结构转型中制度转型有效支持不足所积累的矛盾在基层政府理财上的反映 ,与政府体制、省以下财政体制现存问题和农村生产要素市场化制度建设滞后有密切关系。本文在重点分析中国基层财政困难加剧的三个财政体制性因素的基础上 ,提出了配套改革、调整政府体制和省以下财政体制的三条建议 :( 1 )减少政府层级和财政层级 ;( 2 )按“一级政权 ,一级事权 ,一级财权 ,一级税基 ,一级预算 ,一级产权 ,一级举债权”思路推进省以下财政体制改革 ,同时健全自上而下的转移支付 ,完善以分税制为基础的分级财政 ;( 3 )按市场经济客观要求积极推进农村区域和基层政府辖区生产要素流动的制度创新。     

Monetary policy under a fiscal theory of sovereign default

This paper examines equilibrium determination under different monetary policy regimes when the government might default on its debt. We apply a cash-in-advance model where the government does not have access to non-distortionary taxation and does not account for initial outstanding debt when it sets the income tax rate. Solvency is then not guaranteed and sovereign default can affect the return on public debt. If the central bank sets the interest rate in a conventional way, the equilibrium allocation cannot be determined. If, instead, money supply is controlled, the equilibrium allocation can uniquely be determined.     

改革我国现行分税制需要解决的几个问题

严格的讲，1994年我国实行的分税制财政体制又是一次中央政府与地方政府的“发钱”，而不是实质意义上的分税制，按照公共财政理论，改革和完善现行分税制，必须认识和解决三方面问题；一、以政企分离作为分税制改革的切入点，理顺政府与企业的关系；二、适当下放税权，解决分税制改革的关键问题；三，完善地方税系，为彻底的分税制改革提供保障。     

Central bank instruments, fiscal policy regimes, and the requirements for equilibrium determinacy

This paper examines the role of the monetary instrument choice for local equilibrium determinacy under sticky prices and different fiscal policy regimes. Corresponding to Benhabib et al.'s results for interest rate feedback rules [Benhabib, J., Schmitt-Grohé, S., Uribe, M., 2001. Monetary policy and multiple equilibria. American Economic Review 91, 167–185], the money growth rate should not rise by more than one for one with inflation when the primary surplus is raised with public debt. Under an exogenous primary surplus, money supply should be accommodating—such that real balances grow with inflation—to ensure local equilibrium determinacy. When the central bank links the supply of money to government bonds by controlling the bond-to-money ratio, an inflation stabilizing policy can be implemented for both fiscal policy regimes. Local determinacy is then ensured when the bond-to-money ratio is not extremely sensitive to inflation, or when interest payments on public debt are entirely tax financed, i.e., the budget is balanced.     

转移支付均等化条件分析——基于转移支付与地方经济增长的关系

文章运用近16年的转移支付数据验证了龚六堂2000年的观点,即中央政府对地方政府的转移支付率与地方经济增长率之间是"倒U型"的关系。并在此基础上进一步推导出地方经济增长和中央政府对地方政府的转移支付之间也存在着这样"倒U"关系。用这种关系解释两个问题:第一,转移支付对地方经济增长有部分正的刺激作用,无论是富裕地区还是贫穷地区,中央政府都应该对其地方政府给予转移支付,同时转移支付也不是越多越好,也应该有个量的限制,当地方政府的收益足够大时,转移支付对经济增长的刺激就不再那么明显,反而会抑制地方经济增长;第二,从新的角度分析转移支付均等化实现的条件,即富裕地区较贫穷地区较早的进入"倒U"曲线的边际收益递减阶段时,才可能实现均等化。     

Compensation payments for habitat heterogeneity: Existence, efficiency, and fairness considerations

Compensation payments for voluntary conservation measures have become an important tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. Each year substantial financial resources are spent on such measures, particularly in the context of agri-environmental schemes. In Europe, a debate has started on whether this money is spent effectively. In response to this debate it has been suggested that a portfolio of measures leading to habitat heterogeneity be implemented. Although payments for heterogeneous conservation measures have been analysed in the literature, it has never been questioned that payments can be designed in a way that encourages enough land users to carry out each conservation measure within a portfolio of measures. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such payments do not always exist. Moreover, in cases where payments for habitat heterogeneity exist the payment scheme may require overcompensation of the land users, posing a limit to both efficiency and fairness considerations.     

对新疆财政收入状况的分析与判断

近年来我国财政收入增长快于经济增长这一现象引起了世人的普遍关注，并由此引发了对财政收入与经济增长是否协调、企业负担是否加重等问题的思考。从税收负担、地方政府可支配财力、转移支付的公平效果进行分析，可得出结论：新疆财政收入增长过快的同时也加重了企业负担，且受新疆特定产业结构和分税制的影响，地方财力有所削弱。对此应当从产业政策和完善转移支付制度等方面进行调整。     

GAMBLING WITH TAX DOLLARS

Municipalities often spend money in the hopes of generating new tax revenue. Because the estimated increase in tax revenues is uncertain, these policies are essentially gambles with tax dollars. This paper shows that it is possible for a welfare-maximizing government to exhibit risk-loving behavior even though individual taxpayers are risk-averse. This risk-loving behavior may occur when the government has the option to provide an indivisible public good, such as a park. Interestingly, the poorest and wealthiest municipalities do not find gambles optimal. For communities that find gambles optimal, both the provision of the public good and tax rates are affected.     

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND EXPERIENCE RATING: INSURANCE VERSUS EFFICIENCY*

Unemployment insurance (UI) distorts firms' layoff decisions by reducing the cost of laying off workers. To dampen this increase, it has been suggested that UI should be financed with an experience‐rated tax. Despite the fact that increasing the level of experience rating can reduce unemployment, it can reduce the insurance coverage workers receive. With high experience rating, firms may reduce their severance payments by more than the UI benefit. We build a model where competitive firms offer contracts with severance payments to risk‐averse workers. Frictions in the labor market lead to incomplete insurance. This article shows that less than full‐experience rating enables the government to increase the insurance coverage workers receive. Welfare implications are also investigated.