中国南亚战略论

在21世纪的国际体系里,印度是最具潜力的国家。本文在全面考察印度追求大国地位的历史、印度在南亚的战略作为、以及南亚的基本地缘政治态势和南亚各中小国家的地缘政治处境等的基础上,借助中国古代先贤的经典理论,明确指出中国的的南亚战略是合小攻大。     

金砖国家在国际创新合作网络中的地位和角色研究

金砖国家是世界科技创新的重要新兴力量,虽受到国际形势的影响其专利合作网络规模有所下降,五国之间的合作并不紧密,但它们的网络地位稳中有升、态势向好。中国在国际专利和论文合作网络中的活跃度和影响力均不断增强,具有信息和资源控制的巨大优势;俄罗斯与印度地位相似,但俄罗斯的国际专利与论文合作地位均有所提升,而印度的地位正在弱化;巴西在论文合作网络中相对较具优势地位,但在专利网络中巴西则与南非共同位于边缘区。     

What laws determine progress? An Indian contribution to the idea of progress based on Mahadev Govind Ranade's works, 1870–1901

By the late nineteenth century, the school of “Indian Political Economy” was founded to understand India's extreme poverty and deindustrialisation. This paper examines how Mahadev Govind Ranade (the school's founder) conceptualised progress by tracing its origins and evaluating how it was formulated to reconcile theory with India's political and socio-economic reality. Ranade identified specific Indian determinants of progress: the centrifugal nature of Indian politics; the dependence of a colonial economy; and its refutable role within the international division of labour theory.     

Modinomics: Design,Implementation, Outcomes,and Prospects

This paper presents an analysis of the key elements of Modinomics, defined as “everyone's participation, everyone's progress.” It investigates the reasons why Modinomics was necessary, the key elements of Modinomics, and how this policy was implemented. It argues that India's economic policy has had continuity since the economic reform package of 1991, so Modinomics has involved a high component of better implementation. Nevertheless, there have been some major policy changes as well. The paper discusses the deep structural reforms of demonetization and a Goods and Services Tax as well the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Act. The paper examines the record of economic growth under Modi as well as new welfare and employment programs to make economic growth more inclusive. Finally, the paper examines the medium and long‐term growth prospects for India.     

Managing the Waters of Baՙth Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria

The Syrian government and international development agencies commonly present water scarcity as being one of Syria's main development challenges. This paper draws on a set of international reports, written in consultation with Syrian officials, to reveal the politics of this scarcity. I show how water scarcity is constructed and ordered through spatial representations. Rather than accepting the common explanation that scarcity is the result of population pressure, I argue that Syria's water scarcity is a consequence of the ruling Ba?th party's continuous promotion of water-intensive agriculture. This support for the agricultural sector, motivated in part by a desire for food self-sufficiency and growth through an expansion in irrigated agriculture, is linked to the rural roots of the Ba?th party and the influential Peasants Union. In revealing these key national politics, this analysis highlights how geopolitical studies of water in the Middle East must move beyond a focus on inter-state dynamics and pay critical attention to the politics operating around water distribution and use on a range of scalar levels.     

Will India Be the Next China? Challenges,Prospects and Implications for Australia

India's recent growth performance has been impressive and it appears set to again become a major global economic power. But, sustaining this growth poses formidable challenges. Australia stands to gain much from India's growth. In this article, we review recent developments in the Indian economy, identify policy challenges and discuss short‐to‐medium term prospects, noting some of the main similarities and differences between China and India. Then, we look at opportunities for significant growth in Australian–Indian economic links and policy implications including the possible role of a free trade agreement.     

Joining Global Production Networks: Experience and Prospects of India

Cross‐border dispersion of different stages/slices of the production processes within vertically integrated global industries (“global production sharing”) has been a key structural change in the global economy in recent decades. This paper examines India's experience with exploiting opportunities created by this phenomenon for export expansion from a comparative East Asian perspective. The analysis reveals that India has so far failed fitting into global production networks in electronics and electrical goods, which have been the prime movers of export dynamism in China and the other high‐performing East Asian countries. The findings of this study provide further support to the case for completing the unfinished reform agenda, encompassing both trade and investment policy reforms, and “behind‐the‐border” reforms. There is also a strong case, based on the experiences in East Asia and elsewhere, for combining further reforms with a proactive investment promotion campaign to attract multinational enterprises engaged in global production networks.     

Geopolitical Maps: A Sketch History of a Neglected Trend in Cartography

Eurasian Geopolitics as explained in the Heartland model has been reincarnated as Energy Geopolitics. Germany and India are the two strategic economies of the Inner Crescent of Mackinder's ‘Heartland’ Model and are largely similar in geopolitical focus to the rest of Eurasia. The article argues that in the coming decades at least, Russia will play an important role in these countries' energy vision. A similar unique convergence of goals regarding energy technology requirements will also be seen in the coming decades. India cannot abandon the developmental needs of its one billion plus people to the energy monopolies. Neither does Germany as a significant global economy wish to hang its globalisation efforts on similar energy uncertainties. Both countries therefore seek to spread their energy security through technology-centred geopolitical pluralism. Central Asian energy resources thus seem to be a geopolitical temptation that both nations find hard to ignore. Geopolitical contingencies, it is argued, might bring them together to explore a mixed set of options under some kaleidoscopic combination of an altogether new energy vision.     

When east meets south: economic gains from India-APEC trade

As India, potentially one of the largest economies in the world, seeks membership to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC), a case for its inclusion in an expanded APEC is examined. The methodology and empirical design as developed in Marwah and Klein (1995) within the framework of a world trade matrix consists of seven regions divided into India, components of APEC, and the rest of the world. The growth of economic cohesiveness within APEC between 1965 and 1995 is quantitatively assessed by patterns of trade linkages through measures of bilateral reciprocity, multilateralism, and market diversification. Entropy indexes of the trade matrix are computed and used in the analysis. Since 1991, when massive economic reforms were implemented, India has experienced strong growth in exports and in imports, a departure from its previous performance. Furthermore, its external orientation has shifted positively and significantly since the reforms. Despite this, during the latest five years, India's integration with APEC hadn't changed to a level of statistical significance. The case for an expanded APEC, including India, is still somewhat prospective but the evidence is growing that it could prove beneficial to all the member countries. For India to benefit in this expanded APEC, it should continue to press its case for inclusion in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC).     

论印度在中国地缘战略中的角色定位及相关影响

随着中美矛盾日益加深，如何突破美国的遏制以获得自身的发展成为当前中国地缘战略的核心。在来自美国的共同压力下，提升与地区大国印度的战略合作，并建立一个更有利于发展中国家的全球合作机构，既有助于突破美国的遏制，又有利于周边环境的安宁稳定，从而对中国在中亚、南亚和东亚的具体战略安排带来积极作用，符合当前中国地缘战略宏观层次上的整体布局。     

Bosnia's Third Space? Nationalist Separatism and International Supervision in Bosnia's Brčko District

This article analyses how the strategic Bosnian locality of Br?ko emerged as a distinctive geopolitical space during the post-war period. This resulted from the struggle between separatist nationalisms and the international community over the status of displaced persons in Bosnia, but this struggle played out differently in the municipality of Br?ko as its status was unresolved at Dayton and for years afterward. Post-war nationalist rivalry to determine Br?ko's status through the manipulation of displaced persons provoked the creation of the Br?ko District as a territorial condominium nominally shared by Bosnia's two entities but under direct international supervision. Drawing upon fieldwork in Bosnia, we develop a critical geopolitical account of Br?ko from wartime through the post-war period to the present. The article concludes by considering whether Br?ko as a third geopolitical space holds potential to offer Bosnia a third space, overcoming the oppositional binaries of the war.     

Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India

A key challenge facing most emerging market economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration subject to the constraints imposed by the trilemma, in an era of widespread globalization. In this paper we review and contrast the trilemma policy choices and trade‐offs faced by the two key drivers of global economic growth: China and India. China's trilemma configurations are unique relative to other emerging markets in terms of the predominance of exchange rate stability, and in the failure of the trilemma regression to capture a consistently significant role for financial integration. In contrast, the trilemma configurations of India are in line with choices made by other emerging countries. Over time, India, like other emerging economies, has converged towards a middle ground among the three policy objectives, and has achieved comparable levels of exchange rate stability and financial integration buffered by sizeable international reserves.     

Kemalist Eurasianism: An Emerging Geopolitical Discourse in Turkey

Over the past decade or so, there has been a convergence between the Eurasianist and Kemalist ideologies in Turkey. A number of Kemalist and Socialist intellectual and political actors together with sections of the military have started to articulate Eurasianism (Avrasyac?l?k in Turkish) as a new geopolitical discourse for Turkey and as an alternative to Turkey's pro-Western foreign policy orientation. In this perspective, Eurasianism stands for a political, economic and cultural alliance with ‘Eurasian countries’, such as Russia, Iran, and Turkic countries in Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, India and China. This article aims to deepen the analyses carried out thus far on this emerging geopolitical discourse. To this end, it contextualises the emergence of the Eurasianism in Turkey within the wider social, political and historical context of which it forms a part, including the framework of asymmetrical political and economic relations that developed between Turkey and its Western allies in the post–Cold War period.     

Labor Regulations,Employment and Wages: Evidence from India's Apparel Sector

While India is among the world's largest producers and exporters of apparel products, the sector has not performed to its potential. This study analyzes why this might be so from the perspective of the structure of production in the sector, the most striking aspect of which is a firm size distribution heavily dominated by small firms. Using nationally representative firm‐level and labor force survey data, we argue that the dominance of firms operating at scales too small to apply modern production and management technologies is one proximate reason for India's relative underperformance. Further, we note that India's labor regulations and the associated enforcement regime are important policy drivers of Indian firms' tendency to avoid placing “too many workers under one roof”.     

The Social and Geopolitical Origins of State Transformation: The Case of South Korea

Recent debates surrounding state transformation in East Asia have tended to examine either how transformations in domestic social relations undermined the efficacy of the developmental state, or how mobilisation of coercion and consent at the international level led to the adoption of neoliberal policies. Through an examination of the case of Korea, however, this article seeks to move beyond this division between ‘domestic’ - and ‘international’ - centred analyses to provide a framework wherby mutually constitutive transformations taking place both at the level of social relations of production and at the level of the international order can be integrated to produce a conjunctural analysis of state transformation. Through deploying Gramsci's concept of passive revolution, an analysis of social and geopolitical underpinnings of korean late development is provided in order to provide an alternative explanation of the causes and nature of transition towards the neoliberal state since the latter part of the twentieth century.     

Estimating the Impact of WTO and Domestic Reforms on the Indian Cotton and Textile Sectors: a General-Equilibrium Approach

The agreement to abolish the quotas on textiles and clothing introduced under the Multi‐fiber Arrangement (MFA) will create a new and much more competitive world market for India's exports of textiles and clothing. India's inefficient and costly policies, such as cotton export quotas, the hank yarn obligation, and the restrictive policies on foreign investment that have held back productivity in the Indian apparel sector, will impose serious costs. The authors consider the implications of reforming these policies in an open trading environment using a multiregion, applied general‐equilibrium model. They find that the costs of these policies to India increase substantially following abolition of the MFA; the benefits to India from domestic reforms are considerably enhanced when there is global free trade in textiles and apparel.     

A New Kind of Arctic Power? Russia's Policy Discourses and Diplomatic Practices in the Circumpolar North

The aim of this article is to examine what the geopolitics of the Arctic look like as seen from the largest Arctic state. How are narratives about the development of the region received, reworked and produced in a Russian context? We find that Russian policy actors distance themselves from discourses of Arctic conflict and geopolitical competition, and examine how this approach may serve some of Russia's key interests in the region. We further argue that the key tension in the Arctic region is not along the conflict/cooperation axis, but rather lies in the tricky process of delineating between international cooperation and national sovereignty in tackling Arctic problems. In attempting to illustrate the various voices, ideas and interests that shape Russia's policy understanding of the Arctic and its challenges and opportunities, we draw upon a media analysis and a set of qualitative interviews with representatives of the five Arctic states.     

Ukraine and the Big Moral Divide: What Biased Media Coverage Means to East European Borders

ABSTRACT

Geopolitical shifts and the changing significance of borders in the EU’s neighbourhood are usually understood as a matter of international power politics. Factors that accompany geopolitical impact on borders, such as media coverage of geopolitical change, often appear as secondary or irrelevant. However the recent Ukraine conflict revealed the contrary as pro-EU attitudes were strongly supported by ‘western’ media. Therefore this paper seeks to clarify the role of news media in creating perspectives and attitudes on geopolitical shifts and the significance of European borders. Empirical evidence on the coverage of the evolving Ukraine crisis by German news sources portrays the media as promoters of biased framings and imaginaries which suggest that the EU be a potential conflict party in the newly evolving geostrategic confrontation in its eastern neighbourhood. The findings indicate that during critical periods of the Ukraine crisis media reports combined rising euphoria about Europe and ‘the West’, as defenders of the ‘good cause’, with excessive moral polarising and the discursive normalisation of a rhetoric of escalation. Imaginaries of a bipolar world (The West against Russia) and a new Cold War prepared the ground for a new understanding of European borders and neighbourhood relations as being manipulable at will.