Trade,conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements

Many historians argue that the main goal of European trade integration was the preservation of peace. This paper investigates whether this reasoning is relevant for the EU and other regional trade agreements (RTAs). I provide empirical evidence that customs unions and common markets (deep RTAs) do reduce the probability of war between members. Partial scope and free trade agreements (shallow RTAs) however have no effect on war probabilities. Accordingly, international insecurity has a differential impact on incentives to create RTAs. Deep RTAs are signed between countries that are involved in many interstate disputes and that have low trade costs with the rest of the world, whereas the opposite is true for shallow RTAs.     

A dynamic theory of war and peace

In every period, an aggressive country seeks concessions from a non-aggressive country with private information about their cost. The aggressive country can force concessions via war, and both countries suffer from limited commitment. We characterize the efficient sequential equilibria. We show that war is necessary to sustain peace and that temporary wars can emerge because of the coarseness of public information. In the long run, temporary wars can be sustained only if countries are patient, if the cost of war is large, and if the cost of concessions is low.     

Aiding refugees,aiding peace?

I add two novel features to the two‐player contest model, the workhorse model of civil war: civilians can flee (i.e., become refugees) and refugees receive aid. I find that aid to refugees can promote peace or fuel conflict, depending on the context.     

Tribal Identity in Times of Peril

ABSTRACT

Jordan is a country of contrasts. Few people can boast of being a hundred percent rooted within the boundaries of the actual Kingdom. Almost everyone has relatives across several borders. The aim of this article is to explore the extent to which tribalism in Jordan acts as an identity source or the extent to which it is politicized and instrumentalized to protect economic and social benefits. My literature framework is the instrumentalist theory of ethnicity and the border studies literature. The extent to which ethnicity guarantees a return to the people determines people’s adherence to it. Some scholars regard ethnicity as a tool of political mobilization because ethnic groups could be considered also as interest groups. This theory provides an explanation of tribal behavior regarding the role of identity. As an example, I describe how East Bankers have reacted to challenges from the Palestinian population since 1948. In particular, the present-day delicate equilibrium among East Bankers and Palestinians is deeply decisive in regard to the Jordanian response to the regional crisis.     

How did wars dampen trade in the MENA region?

The article investigates the impact of wars on trade in the Middle East and North African region. Using an augmented gravity model that controls for the endogeneity problem in our estimation, we introduce a war variable and distinguish between different types of conflicts. The results show that wars have a significantly negative impact on exports, imports and trade. Civil conflicts hinder exports, imports and trade significantly. The disaggregated version of the gravity model shows that non-state conflicts have a detrimental effect on bilateral trade flows in manufacturing, and that none of the conflicts do affect trade in services. We also find that, on average, a conflict is equivalent to a tariff of 5% of the value of trade.     

War and the political zeitgeist: Evidence from the history of female suffrage

Despite the upheaval associated with warfare, empirical evidence linking conflict with institutional development is limited. This paper examines the hypothesis that international wars accelerated democratization by fostering political inclusion. Employing survival analysis, I find that during the 20th century, nations engaging in external conflict were more than twice as likely to extend the franchise to women in the post-conflict period, even after controlling for other commonly cited determinants of suffrage adoption. I explore several potential mechanisms for this association and find evidence consistent with stories which connect war with increased national unity, ideological fervor, and international posturing. Finally, examining conflict-induced changes in sex ratios and female labor force participation suggests that the underlying determinants of suffrage expansion at the national and sub-national level differ.     

The Geopolitics of conflict and diamonds in Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone provides an example of a current geopolitical reality in which both a state and an insurrection developed similar characteristics of predatory behaviour as they competed for a dispersed, accessible resource – in this case, diamonds. A conflict of this type can be sustained for extended periods if it is part of a larger global system that provides both markets for the resource and weapons. Unfortunately, the two contenders in this contest, offlcial state and insurgency, have used creative strategies to stave off defeat, initiate new rounds of combat and so perpetuated the ongoing violence and destruction. The civilian population caught in this kind of cauldron has few choices – participate in the carnage, flee, or suffer brutality. Unless the resource itself is exhausted, the termination of a resource-based confrontation is likely to come from the involvement of the international community, including the UN, individual governments, and transnational companies. A combination of interventions such as boycotts, trade restrictions, peacekeeping efforts and even a military role may be required to terminate resource wars. Yet even now, when the conflict in Sierra Leone seems to have been resolved, the social and economic changes brought about by the war and circumstances that prevail in the wider region make it difficult for the country to recreate the peace and security of past decades.     

CIVIL WAR EXPOSURE AND VIOLENCE

In recent years scholars have begun to focus on the consequences of individuals' exposure to civil war, including its severe health and psychological consequences. Our innovation is to move beyond the survey methodology that is widespread in this literature to analyze the actual behavior of individuals with varying degrees of exposure to civil war in a common institutional setting. We exploit the presence of thousands of international soccer (football) players with different exposures to civil conflict in the European professional leagues, and find a strong relationship between the extent of civil conflict in a player's home country and his propensity to behave violently on the soccer field, as measured by yellow and red cards. This link is robust to region fixed effects, country characteristics (e.g. rule of law, per capita income), player characteristics (e.g. age, field position, quality), outliers, and team fixed effects. Reinforcing our claim that we isolate the effect of civil war exposure rather than simple rule breaking or something else entirely, there is no meaningful correlation between our measure of exposure to civil war and soccer performance measures not closely related to violent conduct. The result is also robust to controlling for civil wars before a player's birth, suggesting that it is not driven by factors from the distant historical past.     

The Logic of the Survival of North Korea

Why has North Korea been able to survive up to now, while other rogue states such as Afghanistan and Iraq have suffered military intervention by the USA? To solve this puzzle, we present a simple two‐level game model that takes into account strategic interdependence between intrastate and interstate wars. Using the two‐level game framework, we show that the ethnic homogeneity of North Korea helps defend itself from US armed intervention, whereas a rogue state with a relatively heterogeneous society is expected to experience international insecurity by providing the USA with an opportunity to find domestic allies that help it win an interstate war against the rogue state. As a policy implication, we discuss the possibility that the recent development of a market economy in North Korea might destabilize the peace between the USA and North Korea.     

Theorizing Borders: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

The current renewed interest in the study of borders and borderlands is paralleled by a growing concern and debate on the possibility of a border model, or models, and of a border theory, or theories. Certainly, there is a new attention to theoretical consideration and discussion that could help sharpen our understanding of borders. In this essay, I argue that a model or general framework is helpful for understanding borders, and I suggest a theory of borders. The seeds of my arguments are grounded in a variety of discussions and in the works of border scholars from a variety of social science disciplines. My contention is that the literature on borders, boundaries, frontiers, and borderland regions suggests four equally important analytical lenses: (1) market forces and trade flows, (2) policy activities of multiple levels of governments on adjacent borders, (3) the particular political clout of borderland communities, and (4) the specific culture of borderland communities. A model of border studies is presented in the second part of this essay, and I argue that these lenses provide a way of developing a model that delineates a constellation of variables along four dimensions.     

Estimating Willingness to Pay for the Development of a Peace Park Using CVM: The Case of the Korean Demilitarized Zone

Conflicts remain an integral part in shaping the world. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are no exceptions. The Korean DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) World Peace Park has been proposed to help obtain peace by erasing the memories of war and creating new beginnings of trust, cooperation, and unity on the Korean Peninsula. With their ties to geographical space and conflict, peace park research provides an excellent platform for both activism and research in positive peace. Little, however, is known about peoples’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the creation of peace parks, in general, and specifically for the development of the Korean DMZ World Peace Park. Using contingent valuation methods, the weighted average WTP for development of the Peace Park is $49.03 per household per year. It appears South Koreans are willing to pay not only for the conservation of the DMZ, but also for the peace and unification of the Korean Peninsula the Peace Park may bring to the area.     

Make Trade Not War?

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between military conflicts and trade. We show that the conventional wisdom that trade promotes peace is only partially true even in a model where trade is economically beneficial, military conflicts reduce trade, and leaders are rational. When war can occur because of the presence of asymmetric information, the probability of escalation is lower for countries that trade more bilaterally because of the opportunity cost associated with the loss of trade gains. However, countries more open to global trade have a higher probability of war because multilateral trade openness decreases bilateral dependence to any given country and the cost of a bilateral conflict. We test our predictions on a large data set of military conflicts on the 1950–2000 period. Using different strategies to solve the endogeneity issues, including instrumental variables, we find robust evidence for the contrasting effects of bilateral and multilateral trade openness. For proximate countries, we find that trade has had a surprisingly large effect on their probability of military conflict.     

Waging Hospitality: Feminist Geopolitics and Tourism in West Belfast Northern Ireland

Many areas of Belfast were considered no-go areas, places where the police had lost jurisdiction, whilst the media designated these neighbourhoods as terrorist enclaves. The urban scars that remain after the signing of the peace agreement, have transformed these marginalised areas into places of hospitality for tourists curious about the past conflict. This paper highlights the interdependent relationship between hospitality and the development of a post-war confidence for a community that had long been stigmatised as a violent enclave. For the purpose of this paper I bring together a feminist geopolitical analysis, with its attention to daily life, with more recent feminist theories of hospitality, observant to issues of inclusiveness. A feminist analysis of this type not only reflects the complicated gender politics of West Belfast, but also exposes a “politics of hospitality” that helps reframe our understandings of security.     

Who Gains from the “No War No Peace” Situation? A Critical Analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the second half of the 1980s, Nagorno-Karabakh has been represented from two perspectives of ethnic incompatibility, which justifies ethnic cleansing by matching the state borders with ethnic ones, and the Great Game narrative, which examines the conflict as part of the global power struggle in the Eurasian continent by disregarding societies and undemocratic regimes in the region. However, time has revealed that these perspectives neither appreciate the internal conditions of the conflict nor offer a way out of the current impasse. By criticising the ‘commonsense’ and ‘realness’ of these representations, this study argues that analysing who gains from the current status quo will offer solutions for a sustainable peace in the region. As long as undemocratic regimes of Azerbaijan and Armenia are satisfied with the status quo and outside powers maximise their interests, the ‘no war no peace’ situation will not be challenged. A way out is only possible by including the people, who are actually on the losing side, in the decision-making and peace-making process.     

Violent conflict and institutional change*

Violent conflict such as civil war may influence institutional quality by changing the political equilibrium or by changing preferences and norms. This study presents empirical evidence that in some cases civil war deteriorates institutional quality. By applying the synthetic control method to 25 cases of civil war between 1960 and 2010, I construct the counterfactual path of institutional quality in the absence of civil war. The effects of civil war are heterogeneous, but for a substantial minority of cases civil war appears to deteriorate institutional quality. These findings have implications for post-civil war economic recovery as well as long run economic development.     

Enfranchisement from a political perspective

This paper presents an alternative theoretical perspective on democratization. Various models of democratization have been proposed in the literature, like enfranchisement in response to threats of revolution, threats of war, and split of interests among elites. However, there seems to be instances of democratization that do not follow any of these patterns. For one, these theories rely on redistributive aspects of franchise extension. My model captures democratization arising out of an evenly-balanced partisan competition between political parties, large rents from office and a part of the enfranchised benefiting from extension of franchise. Hence I can explain instances of suffrage extension with little or no redistributive repercussions like women’s suffrage. My model also fits the democratization experiences of several countries like Sweden, Chile, and Italy.     

Predator Empire: The Geopolitics of US Drone Warfare

This paper critically assesses the CIA's drone programme and proposes that the use of unmanned aerial vehicles is driving an increasingly “dronified” US national security strategy. The paper suggests that large-scale ground wars are being eclipsed by fleets of weaponised drones capable of targeted killings across the planet. Evidence for this shift is found in key security documents that mobilise an amorphous conflict against vaguely defined al-Qa'ida “affiliates”. This process is legitimised through the White House's presentation of drone warfare as a bureaucratic conflict managed by a “disposition matrix”. These official narratives are challenged by the voices of people living in the tribal areas of Pakistan. What I term the Predator Empire names the biopolitical power that digitises, catalogues, and eliminates threatening “patterns of life” across a widening battlespace. This permanent war is enabled by a topological spatial power that folds the distant environments of the affiliate into the surveillance machinery of the Homeland.     

FOREIGN THREATS,TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND THE RISE AND DECLINE OF IMPERIAL CHINA

This paper addresses why technological progress occurred off‐and‐on in Imperial China but came to a standstill at around the time of the European Renaissance, leading to the decline of Imperial China. We suggest that the threat of war could have induced innovative activities as well as the accumulation of public capital, which led to the development of a modern sector in Imperial China. Using numerical simulation, we find a stagnated equilibrium in an agrarian economy under low threats of war and another with a high level of technological knowledge, public capital and a vibrant modern sector under strong threats. Long periods of peace would have the opposite effect. Some supportive historical evidence from urbanization is provided.     

War and local collective action in Sierra Leone

We study the brutal 1991–2002 Sierra Leone civil war using nationally representative household data on conflict experiences, postwar economic outcomes, local politics and collective action. Individuals whose households directly experienced more intense war violence are robustly more likely to attend community meetings, more likely to join local political and community groups, and more likely to vote. Tests using prewar controls and alternative samples suggest that selection into victimization is unlikely to be driving the results. More speculatively, the findings could help partially explain the rapid postwar political and economic recoveries observed in Sierra Leone and after several other recent African civil wars.     

An economic theory of foreign interventions and regime change

I construct a theory of foreign interventions in which a home country's main trade partner may influence the course of regime change. The foreign country intervenes in support of the group that draws the largest gains from trade, since such a group is willing to concede most in trade agreements. But interventions are more than offset by the domestic political system, which supports in power the group that concedes least (economic nationalism). I allow for geopolitical competition between the main trade partner and a second foreign country as well as for domestic ideological preferences over the two and look at how geopolitical competition interacts with the economic mechanism described above. My results help interpret some of the patterns of Western interventions in the 20th century and the role of economic nationalism in regime change. Furthermore, they help explain why the Cold War strengthened the West's preference for incumbent elites, even when the oppositions did not have a strong communist ideology. I provide detailed historical evidence in favour of my arguments.