Why did the Tariff–Growth Correlation Change after 1950?

This article uses a new database to establish a key finding: high tariffs were associated with fast growth before World War II, while they have been associated with slow growth thereafter. The paper offers explanations for the sign switch by controlling for novel measures of the changing world economic environment. Rejecting alternative explanations based on changing export market growth or transportation cost declines, it shows how the modern negative correlation could be reversed in a world environment characterized by a moderately higher generalized tariff protection such as that which prevailed before 1914. We show that an increase in average tariff rates among trading partners by just one third might suffice to reverse any negative relationship between an average country's tariffs and its growth. An increase in own tariffs after 1950 hurt or at least didn't help growth, but it might have helped growth in a world where average trading partners' tariffs were moderately higher and retaliation was the best strategy. The world environment matters. Leader-country reaction to big world events matters.     

Where enterprises lead, people follow? Links between migration and FDI in Germany

Standard neoclassical models of economic integration are based on the assumptions that capital and labor are substitutes and that the geography of factor market integration does not matter. Yet, these two assumptions are violated if agglomeration forces among factors from specific source countries are at work. Agglomeration implies that factors behave as complements and that the country of origin matters. This paper analyzes agglomeration between capital and labor empirically. We use state-level German data to answer the question whether and how migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) are linked. Stocks of inward FDI and of immigrants have similar determinants, and the geography of factor market integration matters. There are higher stocks of inward FDI in German states hosting a large foreign population from the same country of origin. This agglomeration effect is confined to higher-income source countries.     

“我们要准备打仗”——20世纪60年代的中苏关系与战备高潮

本文以20世纪60年代中苏关系的变化为主线,结合国内政治环境,重点考察1969年的中苏边界冲突、战备疏散等事件的起因。作者认为,自尊与自卫是“要准备打仗”的前提,中国国内迅速掀起的战备高潮对于避免发生中苏大战具有重要作用：在两国、两党缺乏互信的前提下,假如没有积极的战略防御,单纯寄希望于对方不敢发动战争,难免陷入危险境地：对于当年的一系列战备举措,不能仅仅因为仗没有打起来,就加以全盘否定,要结合当时的具体环境,理解决策者的意图及其合理性。本文在梳理史料的同时,也对国内外吏学界的某些流行观点进行了批判。     

Asset Prices and History: The Case of Austria

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. Looking at Austrian government bond prices traded on the Swiss stock exchange during WWII provides therefore a useful way of interpreting the importance the thousands of people directly and indirectly engaged in stock markets attributed to various war events. An econometric analysis of the relationship between government bond values and events in Austrian history reveals that some generally considered crucial events connected with WWII are clearly reflected in Austrian government bond prices. This holds, in particular for the beginning and the end of the war. The annexation of Austria by Germany in 1938 which seemingly looked as being overwhelmingly and passionately welcomed by the Austrian population negatively affected the evaluation of Austrian government bonds, i.e. it was considered to be to the disadvantage of Austria by the people who put their own personal fortune at risk.     

我国黑色旅游地的开发

黑色旅游地是可供人们前往游览参观的人类死亡或悲惨事件的发生地或纪念地。近年来,这些与战争、死亡、灾难、暗杀、种族灭绝、恐怖事件或其他悲惨事件有关的地方已经成为了重要的旅游亮点。由于历史的原因,我国的黑色旅游地特别多。文章着重分析了我国黑色旅游地的类型与开发现状,并对我国黑色旅游地的深化开发提出了可行的建议。     

Regulation of a Spatial Externality: Refuges versus Tax for Managing Pest Resistance

We examine regulations for managing pest resistance to pesticide varieties in a temporally and spatially explicit framework. We compare the performance of the EPA’s mandatory refuges and a tax (or subsidy) on the pesticide variety under several biological assumptions on pest mobility and the heterogeneity of farmers’ pest vulnerability. We find that only the tax (or subsidy) restores efficiency if pest mobility is perfect within the area. If pest mobility is imperfect and when farmers face identical pest vulnerability, only the refuge might restore efficiency. With simulations we illustrate that complex outcomes may arise for intermediate levels of pest mobility and farmers’ heterogeneity. Our results shed light on the choice of regulatory instruments for common-pool resource regulations where spatial localization matters.     

Welfare implications of Calvo vs. Rotemberg-pricing assumptions

This paper compares the welfare implications of two widely used pricing assumptions in the New-Keynesian literature: Calvo-pricing vs. Rotemberg-pricing. We show that despite the strong similarities between the two assumptions to a first order of approximation, in general they might entail different welfare costs at higher order of approximation.     

Epistemological foundations for the assessment of risks in banking and finance

This article presents the epistemological and conceptual foundations on which current attempts to model crises and assess financial risks are based. It draws a distinction between two research programs, in Lakatos' sense: on the one hand, crises understood as structural events within a cycle; on the other hand, crises seen as statistical tail events. The methodological, theoretical and practical consequences of such a dichotomy are exposed. A crucial difference lies in the assumptions about change in the causal processes generating economic outcomes, especially asset returns. Furthermore, this article insists on providing conceptual definitions of key terms that have distinct meanings within the two research programs.     

Spillovers through backward linkages from multinationals: Measurement matters!

We argue that the measures of backward linkages used in recent papers on spillovers from multinational companies are potentially problematic, as they depend on a number of restrictive assumptions, namely that (i) multinationals use domestically produced inputs in the same proportion as imported inputs, (ii) multinationals have the same input sourcing behaviour as domestic firms, irrespective of their country of origin, and (iii) the demand for locally produced inputs by multinationals is proportional to their share of locally produced output. We discuss why these assumptions are likely to be violated in practice, and provide alternative measures that overcome these drawbacks. Our results, using plant level data for Ireland, clearly show that the choice of backward linkage measure and thus, the assumptions behind it, matters greatly in order to draw possible conclusions regarding the existence of foreign direct investment (FDI)-related spillovers. Using the standard measure employed in the literature we fail to find robust evidence for spillovers through backward linkages. However, when we use alternative measures of backward linkages that relax assumptions (i)–(iii), we find robust evidence for positive FDI backward spillover effects.     

Imperialism,Domination, Culture: The Continued Relevance of Critical Geopolitics

Twenty years ago Gearóid Ó Tuathail called for an approach within Political Geography that made geopolitical culture and the formulation of foreign policy the object of analysis. He specified the task of what subsequently became critical geopolitics as the need to expose the complicity of geopolitics with domination and imperialism. After the cold war there was a decade when military matters declined in importance and globalisation confused the geographical designations of danger. In the aftermath of 9/11 the utility of force has been reasserted by a neo-Reaganite American foreign policy using military force in the global war on terror and the invasion of Iraq. Now the geopolitical culture is a matter of debates about empire and the appropriate geopolitical designation of danger, whether in Thomas Barnett's non integrated gap on “the Pentagon's New Map” or in the complex geographies of Alain Joxe's “Empire of Disorder”. This re-militarisation of global politics clearly suggests the continued relevance of Ó Tuathail's specification of the need for critical geopolitics to grapple with the culture that produces imperial attempts at domination in distant places.     

Did colonization matter for growth?: An empirical exploration into the historical causes of Africa's underdevelopment

We investigate the impact of 20th-century European colonization on growth. We find that colonial heritage, as measured by the identity of the metropolitan ruler and by the degree of economic penetration, matters for the heterogeneity of growth performances in Africa. Colonial indicators are correlated with economic and sociopolitical variables that are commonly employed to explain growth and there are growth gains from decolonization. Colonial indicators also add significant explanatory power to worldwide growth regressions and are correlated with the Sub-Saharan Africa and the Latin America dummies.     

The Impact of Stranded-Cost Risk on Required Rates of Return for Electric Utilities: Theory and an Example

The impact of a proposal to deregulate electric generation on the required rate of return for a utility can be inferred from the proposal's impact on the utility's dividend yield, given some admittedly strong assumptions about risk timing and related matters. We use the case of the April, 1994 California "Blue Book" to demonstrate that even modest changes in the dividend yield can signal large changes in the required rate of return under partial deregulation.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF STOCHASTIC DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS FOR MODELS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF INHERITED WEALTH

The paper extends existing distributional models to incorporate two sets of 'stochastic' demographic assumptions: (a) where the number of heirs is randomly determined, and (b) where the gender of a given child is randomly determined (but the total number of heirs is non-stochastic). The consequent increase in heterogeneity of family types might be expected to increase the inequality of family wealth and reduce the degree of intergenerational inheritance, relative to the 'deterministic' case, but it is shown that this conclusion is very much conditional on the other assumptions made; about the pattern of marriage and estate division in particular.     

Progress and the economy of nature

Progress is a difficult concept, but the phenomenon itself seems to be more than just an illusion. In this paper we consider how a bioeconomic perspective can help to clarify matters, especially when we compare aspects of organic evolution to technological progress. Beginning with the influence of Malthus upon Darwin, we see how the latter's ideas differ in important respects from those of other biologists and from those of social scientists and philosophers. Consideration of biologist's views about competition and the reasons for specialization suggests ways in which matters might be clarified by a more 'entrepreneurial' view of the relationships of organisms to the natural economy.     

Trade Wars and the World Trade Organization: Causes,Consequences, and Change

The rise in trade tensions and launch of a trade war by the USA is in part a result of World Trade Organization (WTO) working practices that have impeded the ability to use the organization to address the underlying sources of conflict through dialogue, analysis, and rule‐making. Open plurilateral agreements between the major protagonists offer an avenue for revitalizing the ability of the WTO to resolve trade conflicts. More generally, reform of WTO working practices is needed for the organization to be more effective in providing a platform for members to cooperate on trade policy matters.     

Punitive Entanglements: The “War on Gangs” and the Making of a Transnational Penal Apparatus in the Americas

This paper analyses the export-import business of penal policies that accompanies the “war on transnational street gangs” between the United States and Central America. It argues that far from being a unidirectional export of punitive politics from the United States towards Central America, many of these punitive exports travel “back home”. This creates transnational punitive entanglements that contribute to the contingent convergence of punitive geopolitics and domestic politics in the guise of a transnational penal apparatus that integrates law enforcement agencies and military forces, securocratic epistemic communities and national political entrepreneurs into a functionally cohesive but decentred transnational security structure engaged in a multilayered punitive containment of transnational street gangs across the Americas.     

Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand

The nature of expectations matters when conducting monetary policy. Models with a learning process can exhibit very different properties from models with other types of expectation rules. This paper draws on the work of Orphanides and Williams [Orphanides, A., Williams, J.C. 2002. Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations and monetary policy, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2002-27], extending it to allow for the possibility that the learning process may not be perpetual, but rather might be converging towards a rational expectations equilibrium. By modelling expectations using a learning process, we obtain that inflation expectations in New Zealand are moving towards rational expectations. The closer expectations are to rational, the more inflation can be reduced without costs, thus arguing for a rather tough policy aimed at anchoring expectations on the target.     

Green national accounting for welfare and sustainability:A Taxonomy Of Assumptions And Results

This paper summarizes assumptions made and results obtained in parts of the literature on welfare and sustainability accounting. I consider five different assumptions that can be imposed independently of each other, producing 32 different combinations. This taxonomy is used to organize results in welfare and sustainability accounting. The analysis illustrates how stronger results require stronger assumptions and thereby impose harder informational requirements.     

Informing the US Energy Policy Debate with Threshold 21

There has been growing concern about the recent emergence of the critical challenges of energy availability and the impacts of climate change. Both are inextricably linked and dealing with them is fundamental to the progress of America and humanity. There are, however, a number of different views expressed, reflecting different assumptions, special interests, and partisan objectives. Decision-makers and the public need easy-to-use and transparent tools to better visualize, analyze, and understand the broader and longer-term implications of the varying underlying assumptions, policies, and strategies, including both their positive and negative impacts — both direct and indirect — and how to manage them.Threshold 21 (T21) the simulation model presented in this paper aims to become such a tool. The Millennium Institute has developed it over the last 24 years.The T21-USA model results indicate that a continuation of current policies and trends will lead the US to become increasingly dependent on foreign energy resources and more vulnerable to price fluctuations. Furthermore, alternative scenarios simulating improved CAFE and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) show that major reductions in the US' resource consumption and pollution generation could be possible while stimulating the economy over the medium and longer term. Nevertheless, the model shows that unintended consequences, such as the Jevons Paradox, have to be taken into consideration when defining national energy policies.     

Human capital and measurable dynamic gains from economic integration: An application to the economic integration of North and South America

The paper looks at the source of dynamic gains to trade liberalization using a two-country model with both physical and human capital accumulation. The model is calibrated and used to examine the effect of the economic integration of Canada and the United States with Latin America. The analysis assumes that differences in productivity levels between regions are due entirely to differences in human and physical capital endowments. Key assumptions are that capital is internationally mobile and human capital formation is income constrained. The simulated impact of moving to a hemispheric free trade area is significant. The long-run impacts are also different from the short-run efficiency effect predicted by conventional static triangle-rectangle analysis. The long-runmultiplier effect on static output gains are on the order of 2.0 to 2.5 for the South—that is long-run output gains are 2.0 to 2.5 times predicted short-run static gains. In the case of the North, static predictions of gain are ambiguous in sign over the longer run; in some cases there are small dynamic gains-in others. small losses. Investment diversion toward Latin America is a prominent characteristic of the results.