Economic Integration between the European Union and the Transition Economies of Central European Initiative Countries

In this article we examine the main factors influencing trade and FDI flows between the transition countries of the Central European Initiative (CEI) and the EU member states. We distinguish three groups of CEI countries, according to the degree of trade and FDI integration with the EU: the 'fast mover' countries, the 'next tier' countries and the 'slow movers'. By estimating a number of trade and FDI equations we were able to locate the significance of alternative variables which affect the flows of trade between the CEI countries and the EU. According to our results, the low volume of trade and FDI between the 'next tier' and 'slow movers' of the CEI region, on one hand, and the EU, on the other, is a reflection of the fact that these particular countries have not yet achieved adequate institutional and economic reform while, at the same time, privatisation has not progressed as much.     

Foreign direct investment,industrial restructuring and the upgrading of Polish exports

This paper poses a central question in relation to the economic-structural effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with Polish manufacturing as an empirical case: how FDI coincides with the technology intensity of Polish exports. A short review of the available literature discusses critically the possibility of establishing one-sided cause-effect relationships between trade and FDI. Subsequently the empirical analysis investigates what role incoming FDI appears to have played in relation to Polish export specialization over the period 1989–1996. Results indicate that FDI has affected positively the technology intensity of the Polish export base.     

Determinants of Chinese direct investments in the European Union

This article analyses the determinants of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in the European Union (EU). Evidence is based on panel Poisson models drawing on two investment monitors at the individual project level. Greenfield investments (GI) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are distinguished. The findings indicate that market size and bilateral trade are the main factors for Chinese investment in the EU. In contrast, business-friendly institutions do not foster FDI. Probably, Chinese investors are risk averse, and prefer regions with less competitive markets. The striking difference between GIs and M&As is related to unit labour costs. Higher costs make the host country less attractive for the establishment of new firms, but do not affect the involvement in existing firms. The sectoral dispersion of Chinese FDI in the EU did not change much since the global financial crisis. Most relevant shifts have occurred in research and development (R&D), where low-income EU countries have become increasingly attractive.     

The impact of trade openness on technical efficiency in the agricultural sector of the European Union

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of trade openness on technical efficiency of the European Union’s (EU) agricultural sector. There are no systematic theories linking trade policy to technical efficiency; hence, the relation between trade liberalization and technical efficiency is fundamentally ambiguous. Stochastic frontier analysis is used to model the relationship between EU’s production resources and agricultural output, as well as the importance of trade openness on technical efficiency of a country. The data for 16 of the 28 EU members were available for the period 1980–2007 including land, capital, fertilizer, labour, agricultural GDP, foreign direct investments (FDI), exports and import data. Results indicate that trade openness has an immediate, negative impact on efficiency in the EU agricultural sector. Over time, however, trade openness does increase efficiency. The FDI outflows increase efficiency. This suggests that an initial reduction in capital supply forces EU nations to utilize other factor inputs more efficiently. However, there is the unexamined potential that over time the depletion of capital results in a decrease in efficiency. Finally, formerly communist member-countries of the EU are found to have the lowest technical efficiency scores whereas Southern European nations have the highest efficiency.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS?

Industrial competitiveness (IC), reflecting a country's ability to produce and export manufactures competitively, is closely associated with economic growth. How does globalization affect IC? While the topic is of great importance, empirical studies on the issue in the literature have been limited. This article attempts to close the gap by estimating the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade with cross‐country data in 1985 and 1998. Taking advantage of a recently constructed IC index, we estimate several regression models of effects of FDI and trade on industrial performance. Results suggest that FDI and trade have a positive impact on IC, and increasing integration with the world economy through FDI and trade contributes to better industrial performance. (JEL F02, F10, F21, L60)     

Industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry trade: the case of EU new member states’ agri-food sector

The determinants of intra-industry agri-food trade are analysed to only a limited extent in the literature. This article investigates the industry-specific determinants of vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member states of the EU and the other EU countries for the period 1999–2010 by applying a dynamic panel data model. Results suggest that IIT is mainly low vertical in nature, suggesting regional export of low-quality products to EU markets. Results also show that vertical product differentiation and FDI are positively related to VIIT, suggesting that quality growth and investments foster vertical intra-industry trade. As to productivity and factor endowments a negative relationship with VIIT was found, implying the labour abundant and similar nature of NMS agricultural sectors.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

Trade Creation,Replacement, and Destruction in Regional Trade Agreements: Micro‐level Evidence for the UK*

Empirical questions surrounding the effect of regional trade agreements on international trade have typically been answered with reference to macro‐level gravity equations. Prominent within this has been whether they create or divert trade. In this paper, motivated by the recent development of theories of export‐platform FDI, we use micro‐level data to explore the part of trade diversion that follows from FDI. Using information on acquisition FDI in the UK manufacturing sector between 1988 and 1998 we find evidence of trade creation, replacement, and destruction from FDI external and internal to the EU.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU: The Role of Bilateral Trade and FDI

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of business cycle (BC) synchronization across 21 (old and new) countries of the enlarged European Union (EU). It utilizes international data to evaluate the linkages among bilateral trade in goods, bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and BC co‐movements. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the relationship using the latest available data (sample range: 1998–2011), and thus taking into account the European sovereign debt crisis period. It also examines the role of FDI, which though increasingly important in the flows of international production factors, is currently neglected by the literature. Preliminary results show that FDI has no direct effect on BC synchronization while international trade helps to synchronize BCs but only before the recent financial crisis (pre‐2008) and only for the traditional EU countries.     

Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?

Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BCS) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995–2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (1) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (2) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (3) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (4) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (5) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.     

Patterns and determinants of the horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of regions: panel analysis for Spain & Poland

ABSTRACT

Most of the empirical studies in the literature on intra-industry trade are conducted at the country level. Countries, however, differ in terms of granularity and internal heterogeneity. In the present study we empirically identify the determinants of the overall IIT as well as its horizontal and vertical components in the trade of Spanish and Polish NUTS-2 regions with all existing trade partners over the period 2005–2014. In order to obtain unbiased results, we utilize a semi-mixed effect model, estimated with the PPML method. We estimate the models jointly for all Spanish and Polish regions and then disjointly in a comparative manner – in order to identify incongruities of reaction to the various factors investigated. These include both traditional factors and a number of unorthodox factors such as regional path dependence, quality of regional institutions, the core or peripheral status of the reporting region.     

The Rise and Fall of Foreign Direct Investment in Laos, 1988‐2000

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played an important role in the development of Laos since the country embarked on an economic transition and business liberalisation programme in the late 1980s. However, in recent years Laos has witnessed a marked contraction in its cumulative FDI inflows. This article provides a profile of FDI activity in Laos over the past decade and identifies the various factors behind the rise, and subsequent decline, in foreign investment inflows during the 1990s. The article concludes by suggesting some of the ways in which Lao policy makers might seek to revive the country's flagging FDI sector.     

Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe

Recent evidence suggests that regional economic integration provides an important stimulus not only to trade, but also to FDI. In contrast, the available theory on FDI does not yet provide empirically testable propositions on the effects of concurrent trade and investment liberalisation. Moreover, given the limits of simulation models, which rely heavily upon parameter choice, in assessing the impact of such liberalisation, there is a need for empirical analysis to identify the principal features of FDI. This paper uses a gravity model approach to assess the impact of the deepening integration between the EU and the CEECs on FDI flows in terms of three key issues. First, we provide systematic estimates of the expected long-term level of FDI in the CEECs. Second, we investigate whether FDI in the CEECs, on the one hand, and source country exports and imports, on the other hand, are complements or substitutes. Finally, we enquire whether an increase in the attractiveness of the CEECs to foreign investors has affected the magnitude of FDI going to other European countries.     

Technology spillover effects within Spanish communities

The article uses panel data for the period 1990–2010 to estimate technology spillover effects on 17 Spanish communities. Accounting for nonstationarity and cointegration, we use the dynamic OLS estimator to estimate the impact of domestic and non-domestic R&;D capital stock on labour productivity of Spanish communities, taking into account trade-, migration- and foreign direct investment (FDI)-related technology diffusion channels. We find significant trade-related spillover effects within Spanish communities and from EU countries. On average, an increase in the non-domestic R&;D stock of 1% increases their labour productivity between 0.02% and 0.12% if related to bilateral trade pattern. Moreover, migration within Spanish communities has a negative impact ranging between ?0.07% and ?0.16% on labour productivity as the impact of inward migration is dominated by outward migration. There is no robust impact from FDI inflows of OECD countries in general or EU countries in particular. Finally, the domestic R&;D stock, physical capital and human capital are shown to be significant drivers for labour productivity in Spain no matter if non-domestic (local or foreign) spillover effects are trade-, migration- or FDI-related.     

Chinese Economic Statistics--Caveat Emptor!

The Chinese government admitted in late 2001 that its statistical system was plagued with flaws. This has revived the age-old question of whether China's reported rate of growth is real. Some analysts have long argued that China's real GDP growth figures have been inflated, often because of false reporting by localities and systemic statistical distortions. This article highlights indicators which have shown signs of being questionable: gross domestic product (GDP), bilateral trade, unemployment, non-performing loans (NPLs) and FDI and capital flight. Reforms are now being undertaken, but while the long-term trend is positive, one should still exercise great caution when using Chinese statistics.     

Fragmentation and East Asia's information technology trade

This article studies the growth and determinants of information technology (IT) trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We argue that the rise of IT trade must be understood within the context of increasing vertical fragmentation of production processes that has occurred over the past two decades. To evaluate this empirically, we estimate a set of pooled bilateral IT export equations for eight Asian countries, the USA and the EU, where foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are introduced as a proxy for fragmentation. We apply a panel cointegration approach that allows for heterogeneity in short-run dynamics and in fixed effects. Consistent with production fragmentation, we find that the evolution of IT trade can be explained in part by traditional income and relative price effects but also by FDI inflows.     

Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we argue that Ireland’s post-crisis economic recovery in Europe was driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) from Silicon Valley, and while this growth model was made possible by Ireland’s low-corporate tax rates, it was also a result of these firms using Ireland to directly access the European labour market. We evidence this contention via sectoral and geographic analyses while simultaneously showing that Irish fiscal policies have not redistributed gains from the recovery to the broader population. As a result, the economic recovery has been most actively felt by those in the FDI sectors, including workers from the EU and beyond. Building on theories from the study of comparative capitalism, we suggest that this experience indicates that Ireland’s FDI-led growth model has created clear winners and losers, with significant distributional implications. The FDI growth regime been made possible by inward migration and European integration, but given the unequal distribution of the economic benefits that this generates, it is unlikely to be politically, or electorally, sustainable.     

The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in the Privatisation and Restructuring of the Czech Motor Industry

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been considered one of the crucial factors of a successful economic transformation in Central and Eastern Europe. This article investigates the role of FDI in the privatisation and restructuring of the Czech motor industry in the 1990s. In particular, it examines how governmental policies towards FDI affected FDI inflows, the immediate effects of FDI at the enterprise level, and the contested nature of this change. Advantages of foreign ownership for Czech enterprises, such as access to investment capital, access to sale and distribution networks of parent companies and technology transfer are discussed, as well as examples of failures of FDI to result in a successful enterprise restructuring. The information presented is based upon in-depth interviews with top managers of twenty component suppliers, governmental officials and vehicle makers in the Czech Republic as well as on the secondary data.     

外商直接投资与美中贸易逆差的实证研究

This article makes an empirical study on the magnifying effect produced by foreign direct investment (hereafter called as FDI) on the US-China trade deficit through co-integration analysis and error-correction modeling. By combining the empirical results, we give out our own opinion that the expansion of the US-China trade deficit is supposed to partly ascribe to the fact that processed industry is the main path of FDI and to Counter sales and trade diversion which are produced by exports on reproduced production by foreign enterprises in China. On the above-mentioned basis, this article concludes that in order to reduce the US-China trade deficit effectively, we are supposed to expand our domestic demand, perfect our inviting-investment policies, implement FDI in China and quicken up the “going out” of our enterprises.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.