Geopolitical fantasies,national strategies and ordinary Russians in the post‐communist Era

New geopolitical writings that have developed in the post‐Soviet period are predicated on different ideological and historical perspectives and against the formal statements of Russia's place in the world from President Vladimir Putin and enshrined in the document ‘Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation’. Four geopolitical schools can be identified, ranging from the fantastic notions of extreme Eurasianism to the reformers’ goal of tying Russia firmly to the West. Formal statements concentrate on Russia's regional prominence in Eurasia and on close integration into the world economic and political systems. However, ordinary Russians display little interest in these geopolitical writings or in the foreign policy actions of the Russian state, except in special cases where the Russian military are actively involved on Russian territory or the ‘near abroad’. In this regard, Russian public opinion has increasingly become like that of the Western democracies, generally disinterested in foreign policy and focused on their personal day‐to‐day lives.     

The impact of sub‐national institutions

This paper assesses the effect of sub‐national institutions on the economic performance of Russia's regions (oblasts, republics, krais and okrugs) from 2001 to 2008, a period of rapid economic advancement and recentralization. Approximating sub‐national institutions with the RA Expert index of investment risk, we find that a reduction in investment risk by one standard deviation increases output by 1.4 percent in the short run and 11.9 percent in the long run, suggesting a substantial regional performance gap in government practices, despite intensive political recentralization. Assuming that the main components of effective governance are running satisfactory public health programmes aimed at decreasing overall mortality among the working‐age population, creating fair labour market conditions and improving the regional institutional climate to encourage investment in fixed assets, we argue that sub‐national institutions remain important for growth in post‐Soviet Russia after 2000. This paper contributes to the literature on institutional persistence.     

Pluralism or isolation of Civilisations? Russia's foreign policy discourse and the reception of Huntington's paradigm of the post‐cold war world

This paper studies the effects of Samuel Huntington's ‘Clash of Civilisations’ thesis on Russian foreign policy discourse. In response to Huntington's thesis, two major currents of Russia's foreign policy thinking ‐ Liberals and Nationalists ‐ are identified, both of which are critical of the thesis. The two groups offer diametrically opposed alternatives to Huntington's paradigm of the post‐Cold War world. The Liberal‐Nationalist controversy reflects Russia's debates about its own political identity and provides us with a rich and informative understanding of the process of identity formation. By identifying Russia's various reactions to the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ thesis, the paper identifies potential influences of various currents in Russian foreign policy thinking on the country's future foreign policy. It also suggests some implications for further studies of cultures/civilisations in international politics.     

Trade and the Recognition of Commercial Lingua Francas: Russian Language Laws in Post‐Soviet Countries

Trade has the potential to influence a wide range of political and social outcomes. Using the post‐Soviet context, we examine how language policies – vital components for how minorities are treated with far‐reaching economic consequences – are influenced by trade. We argue that while ethnic politics and colonial legacies are both important in shaping language laws, it is important to recognize that the Russian language remains a significant commercial lingua franca in the region. When economic exchanges between Russia and other post‐Soviet republics are frequent, governments are more likely to adopt pro‐Russian language laws as a practicality and to maintain favor with the Russian government and Russian‐speaking businesses. Using an original dataset covering all Russian language‐related laws in the former Soviet states from 1992 to 2009, we find a significant and positive relationship between trade and pro‐Russian language laws. These results are robust even when we (1) instrument for Russian import levels and (2) consider the Baltic effect, spillovers from cultural affinity, and the uniqueness of fuel exports.     

Property rights in land and output growth in Russia

This paper tests whether the implementation of a key market‐oriented reform in post‐Soviet Russia, property rights in land, proxied by the percent of privatized land by region, affected the pace of sub‐national economic growth during two unprecedented expansion periods: 2001–2008 and 2010–2014. Individuals gained the Constitutional right to own land in 1993, but implementation was stalled. The pace of land privatization can be explained by arguably exogenous factors such as distance to Moscow, as well as climate and also regional political culture, proxied by concentration of votes in the 2004 presidential election. We show that this rate of land privatization in Russia's regions was significantly associated with output growth in 2010–2014, confirming the policy importance of this measure for developing economies. Regions where private holdings expanded most rapidly with the enforcement of property rights in land, gained a competitive advantage in the growth process through increased investment in fixed assets and private consumption.     

Regional volatility in emerging countriesThe case of Russia1

An uneven distribution of natural resources and the Soviet legacy of artificial regional specialization expose Russia's regions to large income shocks. Using an unique regional dataset covering Russian regions between 1992 and 2003, we assess how these features influence the magnitude and persistence of regional income shocks. We propose a novel measure of regional exogenous shocks that we use to show that fiscal policy in Russia's regions has largely been pro‐cyclical, exacerbating rather than moderating regional exogenous shocks.     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

崛起与转型的政治经济学：基于中国的经验研究

当前我国滥觞于内生性能源、资源的刚性约束和外源性的政治竞争与安全压力,国际社会潜在的丛林竞争规则,大国兴衰沉浮的历史经验警示,和平崛起战略的顺利实现与否势必首先寄望于国内市场经济导向型改革与体制转型战略的成败。为增长而竞争的财政分权和晋升激励成为中国政府推动经济增长的动力源泉,它有助于增进转型初期的经济增长和资源配置。在晚近荣辱浮沉的历史湍流中,在沉淀了师从苏俄与欧美发展模式的喧嚣之后,必须注意防范现有自由资本主义发展模式的制度性痼疾。中国的体制改革和宪政转型不能是邯郸学步式的凌空虚蹈,考量东亚的国家规模、社会传统与发展共性,权衡中国历史与现实的经济、制度、文化与意识形态,运用法治规则一市场机制,培育柔性威权一善治和谐社会的国家也许是较为现实的理性选择。     

Privatisation of the Russian Defence Industry: Ownership and Control Issues

This article analyses the outcome of privatisation in the Russian defence industry in the second part of the 1990s. It is based on the results of the longitudinal survey of defence enterprises conducted over the period 1995‐99 in the main defence production regions of Russia: Moscow, St Petersburg, Central European region, Western Siberia, Volga region, the Urals and the Far East. Using the survey data, we investigate the distribution of ownership in defence enterprises and examine the non-linear relationship between ownership and control inside these enterprises. We also test the hypothesis of the growing criminal influence in defence enterprises and outline a possible future scenario for privatisation in the defence industry.     

我国工业企业绿色创新效率评价

绿色创新有助于实现我国经济的可持续发展。作为经济发展的重要参与主体,工业企业绿色创新效率的提升,有助于实现我国工业的绿色转型。本文采用面板时变随机前沿模型测算了2013—2017年我国各省份工业企业的绿色创新效率。研究发现：自2013年以来,我国工业企业的绿色创新水平不断得到改善;创新效率呈现出时变特征,整体随时间变化而不断优化;分地区看,各省份存在经济发展与环境管理责任的相机决策;分区域看,东中西三大地区存在一定的创新差距,但呈现出收敛趋势。     

A note on measuring the unofficial economy in the former Soviet Republics1

This note argues that the most commonly used estimates of the size of the unofficial economies in the former Soviet republics are flawed. Most important, they are based on calculations that disregard the variation in unofficial economic activity across space in the pre‐transition Soviet Union. In addition, these estimates appear to understate the size of the unofficial economies in these countries. We propose alternative estimates and find that they are more strongly related to the institutional factors commonly used to explain the size of the unofficial sector. Our estimates also show that the size of a country's pre‐transition unofficial economy is an important predictor of its size during the transition. This suggests that the size of the unofficial economy is to a large extent a historical phenomenon only partly determined by contemporary institutional factors. JEL classification: O17, P2, P3.     

Economic Ideas and Institutional Change: The Case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund

An intense discussion is taking place in international political economy on the influence of economic ideas on institutional change. Case studies so far have, however, mainly focused on the Western industrialised countries and research seems to be biased towards cases in which new ideas caused lasting institutional change. The present paper addresses these two shortcomings by analysing the case of the Russian Stabilisation Fund (SF). This case is an example both of the impact of global ideas on a non-Western emerging country and of a ‘near miss’ in the sense that imported neoliberal ideas failed to assert themselves enduringly. Paradoxically, it can be shown how the neoliberally based idea of the SF even contributed to the return to Soviet patterns of industrial policy. The main reason for this, we argue, is that the Fund's implementation was not preceded by economic and political debates. Accordingly, the imported institution of the SF had to be filled with ideational content after its implementation.     

Aiding regional instability? The geopolitical paradox of Japanese development assistance to China

During the past decade, Japan established itself as the largest bilateral donor of development aid in the world, with more of it directed toward projects in China than any other recipient. Japan sees its aid flows to China as maintaining economic stability in East Asia, particularly as China's raw material and energy resources are articulated into regional markets. In this article, I argue that Japan's aid to China may unintentionally diminish Japan's and the East Asian region's long‐term security for two reasons. First, similar to other nations receiving such assistance, this aid may allow China to reallocate scarce capital to military modernisation. Such military modernisation may enable China to both better suppress internal dissent and carry out a more aggressive foreign policy. Second, this aid does not address the fundamental structural aspects of China's present instability. Long‐term structural instability has many sources, but the two discussed here are socio‐economic inequality (both interregional and intraregional), and sustainable production and environmental problems. Taken together these have important regional and geopolitical implications and repercussions. This article fills a gap in the existing literature on East Asian geopolitics. Namely, that by attending only to relatively short‐term corporate and perceived state interests of China and Japan, Japanese aid to China does little to ameliorate and potentially exacerbates long‐term structural social and environmental problems for China's vast majority living in rural hinterlands. The potential for internal turmoil springing from this uneven and unsustainable development inside China is the real basis for China's ‘threat’ to East Asian security. Thus what appears to make good development and geopolitical sense at first look, Japan's current aid regime with China, paradoxically may actually be the worst path to follow.     

Russian language skills and employment in the Former Soviet Union

During the Soviet era, proficiency in the Russian language was often a ticket to attractive employment opportunities in the member republics. Does it still contribute to securing employment in the former Soviet republics after two decades of transition? Using data from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the years 2008–2010, this paper demonstrates that Russian language skills remain economically valuable. The baseline estimates suggest that Russian language skills increase probability of employment by about 6 (males) and 9 (females) percentage points. Our results bear important implications for the ongoing debates on language policies in the post‐Soviet countries.     

Australia and the Pacific Economy*

The industrialization and growth of East Asian countries has shifted the centre of world trade and economic activity towards the Pacific. There has already been a huge redirection of Australia's trade and external economic interests towards the region, based importantly on the emergence of Japan as a major economic power. Australia's future economic prospects will be significantly determined by how it manages its trade policy interests in the context of continuing East Asian industrialization. The most promising Australian trade policy approach is one which allies Australia's trading interests to those of East Asian countries in seeking to maintain an open non-discriminatory trade regime, supportive of the transformation of trade specialization necessary to the industrialization of resource-deficient countries, and which marries that objective to the liberalization of her own and Pacific country markets.     

A Structuralist Approach to the Economic Trajectories of Russia and the Countries of East-Central Europe since 1900

I introduce geographical specificity to world-systems concepts of core and periphery to develop a structuralist approach on semiperipheral development in the world-economy. I apply this approach to the historical trajectory of economic growth in Russia and east-central Europe since 1900. I find circumstantial support for Wallerstein's classic assertion that mercantilist semi-withdrawal is a potentially effective development strategy for semiperipheral countries and show that Russia raised its economic output above historical trend levels during the Soviet period. In contrast, east-central Europe fell short of historical trends during the Soviet period, suggesting that Russia's gains may have been made at the expense of its satellite empire. With the end of communism, both Russia and the countries of east-central Europe quickly returned to their long-term historical output levels relative to the core countries of western Europe.     

The emerging Russian banking system1

Value-added in Russian banks grew by 43 per cent while GDP declined by 32 per cent in the early years of the transition in Russia. This paper offers explanations for the unusual success of the Russian banking sector and the determinants of individual bank performance. The evidence comes from balance sheet data for 563 Moscow banks and 160 regional banks on January 1, 1995 and January 1, 1996. Important factors include the Central Bank policy of channelling low-interest directed credits to state enterprises through banks, the ability of banks to obtain large-scale interest-free deposits, and the resulting high interest rate spreads in an environment of high inflation, and the extent to which banks were formerly part of the Soviet system.     

The impact of institutions on financial development: Evidence from East Asian countries

This paper examines the impact of institutions on regional financial development using a panel data model of 11 East Asian countries during 1996–2017. It divides the institutional factors into six economic factors and six legal‐political factors. The analysis demonstrates that the legal‐political institutional factors have a stronger impact on financial development than the economic institutional factors in East Asia. Improvement in institutional quality such as fiscal freedom, business freedom, control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law can promote financial development. Improvements of these institutional factors facilitate the ability of enterprises to allocate resources and improve the strength of business operations, thereby reducing transaction costs and making the financial operating environment fairer and more efficient. With the improvement of institutional factors, financial development will have more opportunities to develop better. Institutional impacts are more pronounced in the financial development in Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar than in the other countries such as China, Japan, Korea and Singapore.     

The Investment Behaviour of Russian Farms

This article analyses determinants of the investment behaviour of Russian farms during the period of economic stabilisation after the 1998 financial crisis. We argue that the performance and investment activity of Russian farms are significantly affected not only by the macroeconomic and institutional environment but also by the farm's individual characteristics. Our empirical analysis confirms that farm investment decisions are determined by farm idiosyncrasies. The farm's managerial competence and organisational learning are found to have the greatest impact.     

Indonesian Growth Dynamics

This paper provides an analytical narrative of Indonesian economic growth over the past two decades. Particular attention is paid to the key economic crisis events of 1997–1998 and 2008–2009, and how and why Indonesia's response to them was completely different. We emphasize and illustrate how the years 1997–1998 were a watershed in the country's economic history and political economy. We underline the country's generally good economic performance, especially the rapid recovery over the past decade, while also highlighting the fact that its economic growth has never quite matched that of the very high‐growth East Asian economies. The final section analyzes some key policy challenges, including embedding reforms in a highly fluid political environment, macroeconomic management, and “connectivity” and regional (subnational) development.