俄罗斯对华直接投资的贸易效应研究

俄罗斯一直是我国重要的贸易伙伴国,双边贸易潜力巨大,双向投资日趋活跃,中俄两国经贸关系不断深化。中俄双边投资规模和质量的快速提高,对中俄贸易的发展起到了积极的影响作用。通过分析俄罗斯对华直接投资对中俄贸易所产生的效应,能够更好地促进中俄经贸合作战略升级。本文从贸易与投资规模的角度,选取1992—2008年的中国对俄出口贸易额和对俄进口贸易额作为被解释变量,俄罗斯对华直接投资流量和存量作为解释变量,设立了多元回归分析模型,用以考察俄罗斯对华直接投资对中俄进出口贸易的短期和中长期影响。结果表明：俄罗斯对华直接投资流量对中国对俄出口贸易影响不显著,俄罗斯对华直接投资存量与中国对俄出口贸易之间存在互补效应,俄罗斯对华直接投资流量与中国对俄进口贸易之间存在互补效应,俄罗斯对华直接投资存量与中国对俄进口贸易之间存在替代效应。     

俄罗斯研发投入述评

俄罗斯对研发的投入分国家预算资金投入、企业部门投入、国外资金投入和其它投入,业已形成成熟的研发投资机制。在联邦专项计划的框架下,俄政府更加注重创新基础设施发展、科研成果商业化机制建设、优秀科学流派的扶持和科技人才问题的解决。联邦政府还采取多种措施吸引预算外资金,鼓励工业、企业界等资助研发。与世界发达国家相比较,俄对研发投入的结构性特点是政府投入的比重在国内研发支出中占主导地位。     

Foreign Investment and National Interests in the Russian Oil and Gas Industry

This article examines the political economy of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry in order to explain the limited role of foreign capital in this sector. There are three forms of foreign direct investment in the Russian oil and gas industry: (1) joint ventures, (2) investment within the framework of a production sharing agreement (PSA) and (3) foreign equity investment. The development of these three forms of foreign direct investment is analysed with special reference to the interests of the parties involved, before a conclusion on the political factors determining the conditions for foreign investment is made.     

Investment Behaviour,Population Structure and Long-term Growth in Eastern Europe and Russia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

The Behaviour of Declining Industries

This paper examines how the prospect of imminent exit by a competitor in a declining industry affects the market behaviour of that industry prior to exit. We show that 'survivor' firms have an incentive to increase their holdings of inventories and to hold excess capacity before exit occurs. Preparation for the failure of a rival will also involve increasing output. This will push down the market price and may hasten the rival firm's demise. The welfare consequences of these actions are mixed but can be very different from the same actins in a growing or stable industry. In particular, holding excess capacity or increased inventories may be procompetitive.     

战略投资公司投资模式

<正> 随着世界经济一体化进程的加快以及中国加入世界贸易组织,越来越多的国外企业挟巨额的资本及先进的技术和管理经验进入了中国市场参与竞争,与此同时我国的民族工业则面临着国内市场由卖方市场向买方市场的转变以及愈来愈激烈的外部竞争的双重挑战。面临现今我国工业结构生产分散、规模小、技术水平参差不齐、融资渠道缺乏等诸多不利因     

个人行为的经济学解释

本文从分析"经济人"的行为特征入手,通过四象限模型分析了个人行为的类型和产生的原因以及人的行为如何影响制度供给,反过来制度供给又是如何通过"生产"或"塑造"个人偏好而影响经济效率.本文的政策含义是:制度是微观个体行为的产物,宏观绩效是制度价值的落脚点,是个人行为选择的结果.对经济发展的研究不能忽视对个人行为的研究,不能忽视制度供给是通过影响人的行为而影响经济效率.     

资本结构、投资决策与投资风险的思考

企业理财理论中的资本结构理论与投资决策有着内在的联系;对资本结构理论进行综述分析,可探讨出资本结构对投资决策的影响以及投资风险中存在的传统误区,并由此带来对企业投资总风险重要性的认识。     

我国政府支出和公共投资对私人投资的效应分析

首先采用Diamond模型对公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资影响进行理论分析;然后利用1980~2005年间的数据,运用协整检验、单方程误差修正模型分析了我国政府支出和公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资的长短期效应;经验结果表明无论从长期还是短期看政府支出挤出了私人投资而公共投资则挤入了私人投资,国防支出和行政管理支出在长期和短期都挤出了私人投资,社会文教支出长期挤入了私人投资,短期挤出了私人投资。     

加拿大家庭农场制度环境建设经验及启示

中国与加拿大虽然国情不同、农业发展水平差别较大,但加拿大家庭农场的制度环境及其发展路径,有许多经验值得借鉴。如,土地产权制度明晰,财政支持机制重点突出且力度大,金融服务主体多元化、服务规范化,农业社会服务高度组织化、专业化,农业法律体系完善且配套性强。借鉴加拿大经验,中国应深化农村土地产权制度改革,加快推进家庭农场规模化经营;构建综合配套的财政支持政策体系,增强家庭农场发展实力;构建新型农村金融服务体系,支撑家庭农场做大做强;构建多元高效的现代农业服务体系,促进家庭农场提效增收;构建系统完善的农业法律体系,保障家庭农场可持续发展。     

中俄贸易增长探析与前景预测

对于中俄贸易能否持续快速增长，国内学者众说纷纭。通过理论分析，梳理中俄贸易的历史数据，可建立中俄贸易增长的回归模型，找出影响中俄贸易增长的主要因素。进而可得出如下结论：基于两国要素禀赋的互补基础，基于两国过去贸易的经验实证，基于两国持续经济增长的前景，中国和俄罗斯的贸易必将持续增长，并将在不久的将来呈加速度增长。     

The Role of Non-monetary Trade in Russian Transition

The appearance of significant non-monetary trade in the Russian transition of 1992-98 has been differently interpreted by analysts and observers. Some have seen barter as a symbol of passive resistance to reforms while others have blamed reformist policies for its development. We argue that non-monetary trade is best understood as a natural response of companies to market imperfections remaining from Soviet times. We provide an overview of market institutions that existed at the onset of the transition and conclude that market infrastructure was under-developed (especially trade and finance-related institutions). This fact became obvious after the liberalisation of trade in 1992. When the Central Bank of Russia stopped issuing direct credit to enterprises, newly established commercial banks were unable to fill the gap. Firms had to develop alternative means of financing trade and non-monetary trade was one of them. In our opinion barter, while an inefficient mode of trade, also played a positive role in the transition. Its high transaction costs offered ample opportunities to earn profits from trade and financial intermediation. The latter mushroomed as a result and at the time of the 1998 default the Russian economy had sufficiently developed trade, financial and legal systems to afford a switch from barter to money trade.     

The Behaviour of the Firm under Alternative Regulatory Constraints

We review the case for intermediate power incentive regulation such as sliding scale when the regulator is badly informed and the firm's profits have a shadow resource cost. We then evaluate a number of different regulatory regimes including sliding scale in terms of productive and allocative efficiency. We find that the sliding scale principle can be applied quite generally—to dividends, profits or rate of return and that it has attractive economic properties.     

政府与风险投资

国外风险投资的发展历程和经验表明 ,风险投资的发展离不开政府的大力支持。立足于我国风险投资发展的实际 ,借鉴国外发展风险投资成功的经验 ,我国政府应成为风险投资制度的供给者、政策的提供者、法律的制定与完善者、市场的建设者、风险投资的引导者 ,为风险投资的发展创造良好的宏观环境。