Money demand in Hungary and Poland

This paper analyses the determinants and the stability of money demand functions in Hungary and Poland, using an error-correction framework. The null of stable cointegration relationships cannot be rejected in some specifications. The results suggest that long-run parameters are in line with economic theory. While judging the appropriateness of different strategies of monetary policy on the basis of these findings alone would be premature, the paper suggests that money demand functions can serve as a useful reference for monetary authorities.     

Buy-outs in Hungary,Poland and Russia: governance and finance issues1

The governments of Hungary, Poland and Russia have used buy-outs as an important privatization strategy which can be viewed as forming a continuum from straightforward sales where management and employees generally achieve significant ownership, as in Hungary, via intermediate approaches as in Poland where both payment and free distribution of shares are involved, to the Russian case where state-owned enterprises were effectively “given away” through a voucher privatization scheme. This paper, first, presents preliminary evidence on the extent and nature of post-privatization restructuring in buy-outs in these three countries, which highlights the transitory nature of this form of organization. Second, in the light of these findings, the paper analyses the possibilities and difficulties associated with enhancing corporate governance and finance.     

Shortage and currency substitution in transition economies: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania

This paper examines currency substitution in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania during the end of central planning and transition to market economies. Before liberalization, central European economies faced increasing shortage and repressed inflation in the official sector. Households held substantial wealth in real assets and foreign currency. Furthermore, part of their savings was held as hunting money against potential opportunities to buy in bulk at bargain prices in official stores or pay a premium price on the black market. The shift from centrally-planned to market economies is modeled with a shortage variable. Foreign currency demand and consumption functions are estimated by the Johansen procedure. Environmental constraints play a key role in interpreting estimates. The official sector shortage is an important determinant of foreign currency demand in each country.     

Investment allocation and urbanization in socialist economic development: The case of Czechoslovakia of

This paper tests two hypotheses about economic ;fficiency of development strategies of socialist countries. The first is that they overinvest in industry and that increased investment in agriculture would increase the output growth rate. The second is that efforts to limit urbanization have enabled these countries to grow more rapidly by minimizing the need for urban-infrastructure investments. The hypotheses are tested by means of counterfactual simulations performed with an econometric model of Czechoslovakia. We find that growth would have been faster only in the long run, had more investment been directed to agriculture. Urbanization policies appeared only to control inflationary pressures.     

Changing composition of human capital The Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland1

We show that business education/occupations have expanded and that technical education/occupations have contracted in the Czech Republic and Poland since 1990. We interpret these changes as an adjustment necessary for their transition to a market economy. We do not find the same pattern in Hungary, which we attribute to the earlier timing of its transition. We construct an aggregate model in which labour reallocates in response to changing demand structure. When calibrated with the Czech and Polish data, the model generates a large movement of workers with technical education and experience into business occupations in the early 1990s. The discounted sum of output loss due to the gap between the demand structure and the composition of existing human capital amounts to between 8 and 40 percent of 1990 GDP.     

波兰,一个转型奇迹的解读

波兰开始经济转型已经过去了16年，那个在转轨之初满目疮痍的波兰早已经成为历史，今天的波兰几近脱胎换骨。[编者按]     

The sustainability of economic transformation

The paper analyzes the feasibility of sustaining both macroeconomic stability and political support during economic transformation. Macroeconomic stability requires that state sector losses plus public infrastructure investment be financed by tax revenue plus any external assistance. Political sustainability depends on the income gains and losses experienced by three groups—state sector workers, private sector workers, and private savers/investors. The aggregate income gains from allowing heterogeneous workers to make occupational choices consistent with their comparative advantages can outweigh or significantly offset the short-run economic efficiency costs of maintaining political support for the transformation. Successful transformation may depend on external assistance, but this need will diminish over time.     

Employment and wage behaviour of industrial enterprises in transition economies: The cases of Poland and Czechoslovakia1

In this paper we use two very large panel datasets from Poland, 1988-90 and Czechoslovakia, 1990-1992 to explore the dynamics of employment and wage determination at the enterprise level in the early years of transition. The study is intended to assist in building a coherent picture of microeconomic adjustment in transition, a field which was not sufficiently explored in the early years of reform. We find that Polish firms were already to some extent responsive to market conditions pre-reform, notably to demand in determining employment. Czechoslovak firms, however, were largely unresponsive to such pressures in 1989-90. The elasticities rose significantly in both countries in the early years of reform, especially in Czechoslovakia which quickly attained initial Polish patterns of adjustment. Firms became much more responsive to sales and cost pressures in adjusting employment and to their own productivity in setting pay. Ownership effects in these early years were, however, much more modest, with state-owned firms adjusting employment more than their private counterparts, perhaps because over-manning was more serious in that sector.     

The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of 3-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.     

EMU-related news and financial markets in the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values. Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)-related political and fiscal news is captured as news dummies. Macroeconomic shocks significantly affect short-term interest rates and, to a lesser extent, other financial variables. Political and fiscal news has an impact on long-term bond yields and exchange rates. News displayed prominently in our media sources has a greater impact on financial markets than other news and, in addition, the sources of news themselves matter. We also discover asymmetric effects of news within markets. Finally, using a pooled GARCH model we find that macroeconomic shocks have the strongest impact on financial markets in Hungary, while political news has the largest influence in both Hungary and Poland.     

Social and economic changes: Poland 1989–95

The systematic transformation in Poland began with enormous expectations of the people concerning results of the re-establishment of the market economy and economic freedom. Four and a half years after the start of reform, overwhelming popular disillusionment and frustrations have caused the spectacular comeback of the post-Communists. Some of the frustrations have been rooted in the radical changes in income distribution and the growth of poverty. An even more important factor than changes in wages and other income distribution has been changes in the relative position of different professions, sectors of economic activity, and industries and regions.