稳态通货膨胀下经济增长率的估计

本文从产品市场价格变动出发,解释了经济增长影响通货膨胀的原因,并讨论了稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率的概念。同时,利用季度数据从实证的角度分析了过去1 4年中国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的变动情况,估计出2 0世纪90年代以来中国“稳定通货膨胀的经济增长率”(SIRG ,SteadyInflationRateofEconomicGrowth)大致维持在9.8%左右     

中国通货膨胀的动态特征研究

现有测度通胀惯性的常用模型是仅含自身滞后因子的自回归模型,该模型不能有效反映通胀预期和波动性对通胀惯性的影响。本文在自回归模型基础上,构建了一个包含通胀惯性、学习型预期和波动性特征的通胀动态模型。该动态模型从均值和波动项两个方面反映了我国通胀水平的动态变化趋势和特征。针对上述模型不能有效反映通胀状态体制变化的缺点,本文还引入Markov机制转换模型来测度我国通胀水平的状态转移特征。利用分位数回归方法下的自回归模型、本文构建的通胀动态模型以及Markov机制转化模型实证研究了我国通胀的动态特征。分析表明:我国通胀水平具有较强的惯性特征;通胀惯性的形成机理比较复杂,学习型预期只能部分解释通胀惯性;通胀水平的状态转移时间比较长;通胀水平与其波动性有着正向的关系。     

An empirical analysis of remittance flows into West African Economic and Monetary Union: a panel time-series approach

The article empirically analyses the motivations and long-run economic outcomes of remittance inflows into the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Using Westerlund’s (2007) ECM for panel time series and data spanning 1975–2011, the results show that there is no evidence of a long-run impact of remittances on income per capita in the region. The inflows seem to be motivated by investment, but the money may be used to promote consumption instead. This phenomenon could be characterized by information asymmetry between migrants and the recipients.     

基于VECM的治理通胀与经济发展协调性研究

笔者基于VECM模型对利率、汇率、货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系进行研究,发现它们之间存在协整关系,利率、汇率、货币供给增长率与通货膨胀具有双向影响关系,而经济增长率单向影响通货膨胀,利率不是经济增长率的格兰杰因,汇率、货币供应量增长率与经济增长率之间都不存在格兰杰因果关系,五个变量互相之间的作用都有较长滞后效应。通过深化改革、完善市场机制、转变经济增长方式可以保增长防通胀。     

The impact of foreign and domestic remittance types and senders on education outcomes

Migration and remittances are very important for Nepal, yet the country continues to be plagued by low financial development. Increases in human capital investments, such as enrollment of school‐aged children, are a possible gain from the country's labor movements, which can be leveraged further through an understanding of the microeconomic processes involved. This study examines how remittances from both household and nonhousehold members affect school enrollment rates for children in Nepalese families. We analyze the positive and negative impacts of migration and remittances separately and consider both the type and location of the remittance sender using the Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS‐III) of 9,335 school‐aged children. We find enrollment more associated with an exogenous process and use this to estimate marginal effects in which remittances significantly increase children's school enrollment by about 2% points in most cases. These results suggest policymakers should encourage domestic migration (which allows proximity between senders and recipients of remittances as well as less family disruption).     

本轮通货膨胀的货币根源分析——兼论我国央行对抗通胀的困境

通货膨胀是一种货币现象,但不同层次的货币供给对物价水平的影响程度不同,货币增加对不同商品和服务价格的影响具有非均衡性和非直接性。过高估计我国货币政策对物价的影响是不适当的,由于长期的国际收支失衡、活跃的商业银行业务创新以及全国范围内资产泡沫的出现,使得央行对货币供给的数量及流动方向无法很好控制。文章最后针对如何管理我国目前以及将来的物价水平提出了政策建议。     

Remittances during crises

This paper begins by examining the characteristics and determinants of remittances sent from Germany to ex‐Yugoslavia, and then takes a first look at how they were affected by the war and later political and economic crises in the first half of the 1990s. The findings tentatively suggest that the propensity to send among ex‐Yugoslavs increased in the early 1990s, despite a breakdown in formal remittance channels and in contrast with the roughly stable and even decreasing propensity to send among Turkish guest workers.     

试析人民币对外升值与对内贬值并存

2002年以来,人民币出现了对外升值和对内贬值并存的现象。在国际美元贬值和国内流动性过剩的背景下,这一货币现象得到了强化。当然,这一货币现象是实际经济运行的反映。主要线索是,中国的出口导向型经济强势增长,国际收支持续顺差带来巨额外汇储备,并进而推动国内货币供应量的扩张。当汇率和资本流动都受到管制时,压抑的对外升值趋势会成为对内贬值的直接原因。而对内贬值的概念已不是传统意义上的CPI上涨,而是包括资产价格膨胀在内的广义通货膨胀。这对于宏观经济平衡和货币政策制定者来说,都是一场新的挑战。     

The New Keynesian Phillips curve and the role of expectations: Evidence from the CESifo World Economic Survey

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected Euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we use direct measures of inflation expectations from the CESifo World Economic Survey. Our main findings are as follows: (i) The use of survey data gives empirical results, which are more reliable than those obtained from the GMM approach. (ii) The purely forward-looking Phillips curve can be rejected in favor of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. (iii) The estimated coefficients on past inflation are higher when using survey expectations than when using the rational expectations GMM approach. (iv) It remains unclear whether real unit labor costs or a measure of the output gap should be used as a proxy for real marginal costs. (v) Theory-based restrictions lead to an improvement of the empirical results.     

Do remittances improve political institutions? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Do remittances represent a significant positive determinant of democratic institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa? In this paper, we estimate the effect that remittances have on democratic institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1975–2014. Using a 5-year non-overlapping panel sample and controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that remittances are positively associated with democratic institutions. Our baseline system-GMM estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in remittance flows improves democratic institutions by around 0.32 standard deviations. Furthermore, we find that remittances improve democratic institutions by increasing schooling and reducing poverty.     

信贷量经济效应的期限结构研究

银行信贷和经济波动的关系一直是理论和实务界关注的焦点,过去国内的研究大多仅从信贷总量层面入手而忽视了结构效应,这不利于厘清信贷在经济中的作用机理。在将贷款按期限划分为短期贷款和中长期贷款后,本文通过应用一个小型DSGE模型,发现短期贷款对经济增长虽有短期的促进作用,但却形成通货膨胀压力;而中长期贷款对经济增长有长期的促进作用,同时对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。以我国1998-2010年的宏观数据为样本进行的FAVAR检验支持了上述观点。该结论一方面意味着信贷政策及其监管应加强对信贷期限结构的关注,另一方面结合我国近年来中长期贷款比重大幅上升的客观事实,也从一个新的视角解释了货币信贷加速扩张的同时,价格水平却较为稳定的"中国货币之谜"。     

货币政策对物价稳定和经济增长的效应——中国与巴基斯坦的比较研究

本文采用自回归分布滞后模型对中国和巴基斯坦两国货币政策、通货膨胀与经济增长之间的长期关系进行了比较研究,由此得出如下几点结论:第一,两国的经验数据都印证了经济学家们普遍接受的通货膨胀是一种货币现象的推论;第二,货币非中性假说在两国的经验数据中均无法被拒绝;第三,在中国存在货币数量论所描述的货币供给与通货膨胀同步增长的预测关系,而这种关系在巴基斯坦却不存在;第四,两国若想实现较高的经济增长都必须在长期内降低通货膨胀率。     

Migrants' Remittances,Governance and Heterogeneity

This paper investigates the effect of governance on remittances with specific focus on accounting for heterogeneity in the relationship. Using nonparametric kernel methods that are robust to arbitrary forms of non-linearity, heterogeneity and model specification, and six governance measures from the World Governance Indicators (WGI), the relationship is analysed for 109 countries for the period 1996–2014. The findings show that all six measures: voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption are significantly related with remittances. Moreover, the relationship is highly nonlinear and heterogeneous across countries or regions, and time. In addition, specific aspects of governance quality matter differently for remittances across each regional groupings. Hence, there is the need for country-specific rather than a one-size fits all governance reform agenda.     

中国通货膨胀是工资成本推动型吗?——基于超额工资增长率的实证研究

需求拉动型与成本推动型通货膨胀之争是2007年中国通货膨胀问题争论的焦点,通货膨胀类型的差异隐含着治理通货膨胀的不同政策选择。本文基于2000年之后超额工资增长与通货膨胀的关系进行检验,实证结果表明货币供给而非超额工资增长是导致通货膨胀变化的主要因素。基于分部门工资数据的研究结果亦未发现超额工资存在对通货膨胀的显著响应。基于上述结果本文认为,2000—2007年中国尚不存在"工资-通货膨胀"循环机制。     

中国通胀惯性特征与货币政策启示

通胀惯性与货币政策效果紧密相关。本文应用具有统计无偏性的"Grid Bootstrap"估计法和未知断点结构突变检验法,研究了1980—2007年中国通货膨胀的惯性特征。本文发现,在低通胀环境下通货膨胀仍然呈现相当高的惯性特征,这暗示着我国货币政策的滞后效应依然非常明显,通货膨胀对政策变化的反应速度缓慢。计量结果说明,中央银行至少应该在出现通胀压力前一年采取措施,来应对高通胀惯性环境下的政策滞后效应。因此,新时期货币当局不仅需要保持对通胀抬头趋势的适度警觉,而且应该关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响。     

中国的通货膨胀惯性与通货膨胀不确定性——基于有限理性NKPC模型的分析

本文拓展有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型并结合中国参数进行校准,然后利用校准模型研究中国通货膨胀惯性特征及其与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系。结果显示,有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型能很好地模拟出与中国实际通货膨胀惯性类似的特征。进一步研究还发现,研究样本期间,中国通货膨胀惯性总体上呈现先上升而逐渐下降的驼峰型特征,而且与通货膨胀预期不确定性存在正向相关关系。这些发现意味着,我国中央银行货币政策滞后效应正在缩短,而为了进一步降低通胀惯性并提高货币政策有效性,引导通货膨胀预期保持稳定是一大途径。     

Fiscal counter-cyclical rules and their conflicting implications for growth and welfare

The paper examines the choices for fiscal stabilisation policy that maximise aggregate welfare and long-run growth. This is done in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model where premeditated learning provides the engine of human capital accumulation and growth, and technology shocks provide the impulse source of fluctuations. Contrary to existing conventional wisdom, the results indicate a conflict between the two policy objectives: the choice of no stabilisation, associated with maximum growth, is also associated with minimum welfare. Welfare maximisation requires a full counter-cyclical response to the occurrence of business cycles. I am grateful to three anonymous referees for their constructive comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank Theodore Palivos, Keith Blackburn, seminar participants in Athens and Thessaloniki, and participants at the 2006 conference on Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics (Toulouse) and the 2007 conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (Kos), for their valuables comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. Any errors and omissions are mine.     

The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework

This paper investigates the effect of inflation uncertainty innovations on inflation over time by considering the monthly United States data for the time period 1976–2006. In order to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty innovation on inflation, a Stochastic Volatility in Mean model (SVM) has been employed. SVM models are generally used to capture the innovation to inflation uncertainty, which cannot be achieved in the framework of popular deterministic ARCH type of models. Empirical evidence provided here suggests that innovations in inflation volatility increases inflation persistently. This evidence is robust across various definitions of inflation and different sub-periods.     

Nominal uncertainty and inflation: The role of European union membership

We provide evidence that higher inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation in the new European Union (EU) member states and candidate countries only prior to EU accession. During EU accession and entry, inflation uncertainty has no effect on mean inflation.     

金融稳定还是经济增长:中央银行利率政策的门限转换特征

金融稳定对经济增长的影响的非线性特征决定了中央银行货币政策的非线性特征.本文利用世界37个国家1993～2007年的面板数据研究了中央银行利率政策的门限转换特征.研究结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增、长的影响存在显著的门限累进效应,各国中央银行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征,文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值,文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议.