Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability*

Using panel data from the Argentine Permanent Household Survey, this paper analyzes which households were more vulnerable to the Argentine macroeconomic crisis during 1999–2002. Results suggest that the impact of the crisis was not uniform across households, which differed in their ability to cope with shocks. In particular, households with more children, and whose head was male, less educated, and employed in the private sector were the most vulnerable, suffering larger than average declines in income. Shocks to labor income were significant, with both unemployment rates and unemployment spells increasing throughout the period, particularly during the peak of the crisis towards the end of 2001. Individuals with low levels of human capital (proxied by education and experience), males, and self‐employed were more likely to lose their jobs. Public sector employees, in contrast, were more protected from the impact of the crisis on employment.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of Taxation in a Federal Europe

The signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 has created a dilemma for fiscal policy at both a theoretical and a policy level. The conflict between the increasingly important stabilising role for fiscal policy post-Maastricht and the pursuit of fiscal harmonisation requires a re-examination of the theoretical framework within which policy discussion should take place. Orthodox tax incidence theory cannot adequately analyse the macroeconomic effects of taxation and the paper proposes an alternative post-Keynesian approach based on the tax and business cycle theories of Kalecki. To illustrate the applicability of a Kaleckian approach to taxation in a Federal system, the paper presents a discussion of the macroeconomic effects of State and local taxation in the US. It is also shown to be necessary to study the structure of State government receipts, the expenditure functions of State governments, the State government budget stance and the nature of intergovernmental relations in order to identify macroeconomic effects.     

发展方式、经济脆弱性与宏观政策

一、当前发展方式的基本特征 要从发展方式的视角来观察当前的经济形势,有必要简单地勾画一下当前我国发展方式的基本特征.我国经济发展方式是粗放的,"广种薄收",靠高投入、高消耗来维持总产出的高增长,是一种低效的发展方式.     

Learning from Transition Economies: Assessing Labor Market Policies across Central and Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern European countries transformedradicallytheir unemployment benefit systems and altered significantly the composition of their active labor market policy budgets in the transition process. Their recent experience is valuable from an OECD country perspective. Based on a rich data base of district-level outflows from registered unemployment and active labor market policy expenditures and intakes, this paper provides a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of active labor market policies in Central and Eastern Europe. Estimates of an augmented matching function do not point to significant deadweight losses associated with active program intakes. This does not rule out the possibility that active policies displace those already employed, but such substitution effects may not be undesirable given the stagnancy of the unemployment pools in these countries.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 366–384. Università Bocconi and IGIER, Istituto di Economia Politica, via Sarfatti, 25, 20136 Milan, Italy.     

Banking in Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Macroeconomic Fragility and Exchange Rate Vulnerability: A Cautionary Record of Transition Economies

The interaction between the exchange rate regime and macroeconomic stabilization in several transition economies during 1990–1996 was influenced by the persistence of high inflation rates and the initial disequilibrium between the highly undervalued nominal exchange rates in relation to their purchasing power parity estimates. Policymakers generally adopted the flexible (nominal) exchange rate regimes for manipulating real exchange rates with a view to correcting the exchange rate disequilibrium and conveying inflation control signals. The rates of real appreciation were higher in the earlier years of high inflation rates. By 1996, lower inflation rates required less currency appreciations thereby reducing the negative impact of the latter on trade competitiveness. However, the persistence of unwarranted interest rate differentials, a consequence of the domination of monetary control over prudent fiscal management, and the associated inflows of foreign funds put an upward pressure on exchange rates exacerbating trade competitiveness. The transition record suggests that innovative exchange rate arrangements can provide only a brief interval during which sound fiscal discipline needs to be put in place for controlling inflation.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1998, 26(4), pp. 621–641. Columbia University, New York, New York 10027.     

Bank Reform and Behavior in Central Europe

This paper analyzes the banking systems of the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland in a comparative perspective with the aim of determining whether hank behavior has changed as a reaction to banking reform and the new market environment. It is shown that bank behavior changed dramatically in 1992. The paper argues that behavior changed in response to nonperforming loans which came to light and to improved bank regulation and supervision. Nonetheless, much remains to be done to make the banking system effective in financial intermediation and corporate control. J. Comp. Econom., December 1994, 19(3), pp. 335-361. Bank for International Settlements, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.     

Privatization Effects in Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Politics and privatization in Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines how government ideology influenced privatization efforts in Central and Eastern Europe after the transition from socialism. We analyse a dataset of privatization indicators covering small‐ and large‐scale industries in 19 transition countries over the period 1990–2007 and introduce a government ideology index. The results suggest that market‐oriented governments promoted the privatization of small‐scale industries more than that of large‐scale ones. In the rapid transition process in the early 1990s, leftist governments stuck to public ownership more strongly than in the following period from the mid‐1990s to 2007. The remarkable differences between leftist and right‐wing governments concerning both the role of government in the economy and the basic elements of political order are in line with developments in OECD countries, and may also hold further implications for transition and democratizing countries outside Central and Eastern Europe.     

中东欧国家法治建设进程:以合同实施为例

文章以合同法的执行为例，从六个方面概述了1990年代以来中东欧国家的法治建设进程．认为虽然各国的法治建设都取得了不同程度的进展，但是各国的法治发展水平很不平衡，而且法治的不同方面在各国的进展也存在着差异。     

Explaining regional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper analyses the determinants and the evolution of income disparities across regions within Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) over 1991–2011. We add to the literature in different ways. First, we adapt the categories that Rodriguez‐Pose used for studying convergence among old EU members to CEECs regions. This allows us to assess the relevance of geo‐sectoral groups (urban areas, old industrialized areas and peripheral areas) for newcomer regions. Second, we introduce a new category, that of ‘successful Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)‐based restructuring’ in order to capture regions that, often through considerable FDI, manage to reconvert their old industrial base. We then analyze whether this group helps understand catching‐up/falling behind processes in CEECs. We test the relevance of these groups by means of both non‐parametric and spatial regression analyses. We find that they help explain the increase in within‐countries’ regional disparities especially after the turn of the century.     

Regulatory reform in telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper we discuss public policy towards the telecommunications sector in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), focusing primarily on the need to ensure adequate capital investment. The analysis falls into two main parts: the regulation of monopoly, and policy on liberalization. Concerning regulation, we discuss how policy credibility is likely to be a problem in the region, and how reputational considerations, the design of regulatory institutions, and methods of price control can help to ameliorate this problem. Concerning liberalization, we consider the effects of potential competition on investment incentives, and construct a simple model to analyse the different effects of liberalization and regulatory risk on investment. Some preliminary policy conclusions are drawn, and we argue that in the CEE region – in contrast to more well developed countries – a reasonable case can be made for allowing a temporary period of monopoly for basic services.     

The great transformation of Central Eastern Europe

The study examines the changes of the Central Eastern European region first in the context of world history. It confirms by comparative historical analyses that the transformation was indeed unique. This has been the only total transformation that took place peacefully, without violence, and at the same time astonishingly fast, in the main direction of the economic and the political changes of Western civilization. From that perspective it is an exceptional success story. However, from the perspective of everyday life, the result is different. Deep economic troubles are experienced by a considerable portion of the population. The perception of losses is intensified by various cognitive problems. Based on the experience of today's generation, evaluating the change as an unequivocal success would be unwarranted. Both approaches are justified: it would be wrong to blend the two and to weigh them by the same scale.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

Macroeconomic competitiveness in the Europe of the Twelve: An application to 1969–93

This study offers an integrated view of the relationships between technology, trade, and economic growth. Inspired by the most recent neo-Schumpeterian and post-Keynesian proposals, an empirical model is constructed to analyze how technology affects trade, how trade determines the evolution of gross domestic product, and how this economic growth can increase the technological capacity of nations, reinitiating the virtuous circle of growth. The model is estimated using the new technique of simultaneous equations with panel data. The results provide great support for the technological gap trade theory and for the existence of Kaldorian cumulative causation processes in the Europe of the Twelve during the period 1969 to 1993.     

Firms and wage inequality in Central and Eastern Europe

We use large linked employer-employee data to analyze wage inequality patterns in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries between 2002 and 2014. We show that, unlike in many other advanced economies, wage inequality levels have decreased in almost all CEE countries. These reductions in wage inequality resulted from disproportionately large increases in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, and from decreases in between-firm wage inequality. We further find that the declines in wage inequality were driven by large wage structure effects that compensated for changes in the composition of workers.