From the ‘econometrics of capital punishment’ to the ‘capital punishment’ of econometrics: on the use and abuse of sensitivity analysis

The academic debate over the deterrent effect of capital punishment has intensified again with a major policy outcome at stake. About two dozen empirical studies have recently emerged that explore the issue. Donohue and Wolfers (2005 Donohue, J and Wolfers, J. 2005. Uses and abuses of empirical evidence in the death penalty debate. Stanford Law Review, 58: 791–845. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) claim to have examined the recent studies and shown the evidence not to be robust to specification changes. We argue that the narrow scope of their study does not warrant this claim. Moreover, focusing on our two studies that they have examined, we show the deterrence findings to be robust, while their work has serious flaws and their reporting appears to be selective. The selectivity is biased towards showing ‘no deterrence’.     

Value,sign, and social structure: the ‘game’ metaphor and modern social science

This exploratory paper, part of continued work on the history of game theory, seeks to illustrate certain links between von Neumann's theory of games and contemporaneous ideas in other fields. In particular, we claim that the emergence of the analytical metaphor of the ‘game’ in economics can be viewed as part of a general reconceptualization of theory in a range of disciplines. That methodological reconstitution may be described as the emergence of a Structuralist view, an approach to theorizing which treated its object – be that a text, a kinship arrangement, or an economy – as a self-contained system, with its own internal logic, subject to its own ‘laws’. In particular, individual texts, or observed social and economic arrangements, are now viewed as variations on an underlying logical theme, on a structural invariant. The latter is to be uncovered, in the case of linguistics, through the analysis of phonemes; in kinship analysis, through the rules governing the exchange of women because of the incest taboo; in von Neumann and Morgensterns game theory, through the possibilities for equilibrium coalition formation, based on the stable set. There thus emerged a tendency, across the intellectual spectrum, towards seeing things in combinatorialterms. Theoretical coherence was to be found in examining how objects ‘held together’ rather than analysing where they ‘came from’: nineteenth-century concerns with history, evolution and individual psychology give way to a distinctly modern emphasis on synchronic, formal structure, on analogical reasoning. Atomism gave way to holism, and formal elegance superceded immediate empirical content. Recourse to the metaphor of the ‘game’ was constitutive of this shift, which we examine by referring to Saussures General Course in Linguistics, to Formalism in mathematics and literary analysis, to Lévi-Strauss's analysis of kinship and myth, and to von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour.     

To market,to market: imperial capitalism’s destruction of social capital and the family

The market, far from being the sine qua non for modern society in general, and the family in particular, has eroded the social fiber that gives shape and resilience to the experiences of individuals, families, and ultimately, the market itself. Reviewing both historical and feminist analysis of the family in a capitalist market society, it is clear that the modern market is imperial. Not only does it transform every human interaction into a transient market exchange, it undermines the basis for social reproduction through the family. Using the concept of social capital as a primary analytical tool, this paper argues that the distinction between home and market labor has been unnecessarily polarized, limiting policy options. Thus, society’s ability to produce and maintain long-standing social networks is put at risk, paradoxically reducing the market’s ability to perform efficiently.JEL Categories: D10; J22; J16     

Corporate social responsibility and the ‘game of catallaxy’: the perspective of constitutional economics

The paper examines the issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR) from the perspective of constitutional economics, focusing on the distinction between a political community’s constitutional choice of the rules of the “market game,” and the market players’ sub-constitutional choice of strategies within these rules. Three versions of CSR-demands are identified and discussed, a “soft,” a “hard”, and a “radical” version. The soft version is concerned with the issue of how “socially responsible” corporations ought to play the market game within existing rules. The hard version is about how the rules of the market ought to be changed in order to induce “socially responsible” corporate behavior. And the radical version questions the compatibility of CSR and the logic of the market game, calling in effect for adopting some alternative economic regime.

‘Nil Repente!’: Galiani and Necker on economic reforms

The problem of the transition to a market economy provoked a lasting and important debate in eighteenth-century Ferance. The climax was reached during the 1760s and the 1770s with the two important pre-revoluntionary attempts, in 1763–64 and 1774a–76, to liberalize the French economy and, initially, the grain market. During these controversies, the reformers’ camp clearly split into two groups - the so-called ‘moderates’ and the alleged enthousiastes - which were apparently in deep disagreement as to the strategy to adopt in such circumstances. Among the ‘moderates’, two authors especially are of great interest: Ferdinando Galiani and Jacques Necker, who crystallized and developed the ideas of their camp to promote a strategy of prudence.

This paper analyes their arguments on the issue at stake: the objectives and methods of a transition to a market economy. The historical and intellectual context of the debate is first briefly restated and the basic theoretical tenets of Galiani's and Necker's critique are then outlined. The various obstacles which, in our author's opinion, were likely to come from the opponents to a transition to a market economy or from its proponents are analysed, and Galiani's and Necker's main ideas on the best way to achieve successful reforms are stressed. Some provisional conclusions are dawn at the end.     

Comment: Marrying Functional Differentiation and Institutional Economics: Reflections on Steffen Roth’s Article

The Luhmannian idea of functional differentiation offers a novel and radical systems-theoretic framework reinforcing the institutionalist vision of the embeddedness of the economic system in the societal and natural environment. Reflecting on Steffen Roth’s article, I formulate two complementary arguments. The first is that any self-organized complexity can be supported by the installation of a systemic boundary protecting it from the outer environment. The second is that this boundary prevents the complexity of the outer environment from being fully translatable into the intra-systemic complexity. Both arguments potentially inform the institutionalist analysis of the operational and moral problems of the economic function system.     

A Comment on ‘The Measurement of Prices of Production’ by Peter Flaschel,Reiner Franke & Roberto Veneziani

After giving a summary of the Cambridge debate, the comment criticizes the proposal by Flaschel, Franke and Veneziani to base the classical approach on systems of production with unequal rates of profit both theoretically and on empirical grounds: The classical gravitation of market prices towards normal prices is hard to defend, if there are persistent differentials of profit rates, but the profit rate differentials in the paper are not even stable. The comment further defends the idea of representing states of knowledge about technology by means of input-ouput tables against objections regarding the transferability of methods between countries and discusses alternative approaches to the treatment of fixed capital. It is shown that the data used by the authors for capital stocks are not supported by the data of the German Statistical Office. I agree with the authors in the most essential point, however: Contrary to the position taken e.g. by Joan Robinson, we all believe that the problems of capital theory raised in the Cambridge debate must be analyzed not only in abstract theory but also at the applied level. We all were surprised to find that empirical wage curves tend to be close to straight lines so that double intersections of such wage curves, hence reswitching and reverse capital deepening, must be rare. This phenomenon needs to be explained; a possible explanation can be derived from the random nature of the input-output matrices, and, so far, no other explanation has been proposed.     

‘Emptying the cage,changing the birds’: state rescaling,path-dependency and the politics of economic restructuring in post-crisis Guangdong

This paper evaluates how economic restructuring in Guangdong is entwined with the politicisation of state rescaling during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. It shows how a key industrial policy known as ‘double relocation’ generated tensions between the Guangdong government, then led by Party Secretary Wang Yang, and the senior echelon of the Communist Party of China in Beijing. The contestations and negotiations that ensued illustrate the dynamic entwinement between state rescaling and institutional path-dependency: the Wang administration launched this industrial policy in spite of potentially destabilising effects on the prevailing national structure of capital accumulation. This foregrounds, in turn, the constitutive and constraining effects of established, national-level policies on local, territorially specific restructuring strategies.     

Sugar daddy u: human capital investment and the university-based supply of ‘romantic arrangements’

To deal with the financial hardships associated with rising college tuition, many female college students in the U.S. are turning to risqué forms of financing human capital investments, such as agreeing to potentially lucrative ‘romantic arrangements’ with older males, referred to as ‘sugar daddies,’ through the largest Internet-based club in the industry. Yet despite this recent trend, there is a relative paucity of published academic research on the economics of such behaviour. Using data from the more than 220 nationally ranked (by U.S. News & World Report’s America’s Best Colleges) colleges and universities in the U.S., presents results from both Poisson and scaled Poisson estimation suggesting that large, high-cost universities that are located in larger cities or where unemployment rates are higher lead the nation in the number of female students choosing such romantic arrangements in order to fund higher education. Moreover, those institutions that are chosen by more physically attractive female students, and those that enrol a higher percentage of female students, are also generating greater numbers of female student entrants into the sugar daddy industry. Each of these findings has implications for the human capital literature and the growing body of academic literature on the economics of beauty.     

Peter T. Leeson,WTF?!: An economic tour of the weird

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble

Exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out early 2014, the Russian ruble lost 50% of its value against the US dollar. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on natural resource exports, another factor behind the deterioration could be the sharp decline in oil prices starting in summer 2014. Using high-frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on forces underlying the ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.     

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.     

Comment on ‘Cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the UK: some econometric tests’ by G. Weil

The issue of the relationship between domestic and eurocurrency interest rates is reexamined using the Granger causality test. It is concluded that while earlier results suggesting causality runs from the eurocurrency market to the domestic money market remains valid for the US dollar market, this result cannot be generalized to behaviour in the money markets denominated in sterling deutschemarks.     

Political economy and the ‘modern view’ as reflected in the history of economic thought

This paper focuses on the transition from classical political economy to ‘modern’ economics, a central aspect of which is the ascent of the conception of ‘theory’ as a mere instrument of research. We analyse how this transitional phase was perceived and interpreted in representative, more or less contemporaneous histories of economic thought: those by Luigi Cossa in 1880, by John Kells Ingram in 1915 (originally published in 1888), and by Charles Gide and Charles Rist in 1915. Despite their differences, all authors share the same conception of the structure of scientific laws, as well as the view that economics must be separated from liberalism.     

Income–happiness paradox in Australia: Testing the theories of adaptation and social comparison

This paper investigates whether the theories of adaptation and social comparison can explain the income–happiness puzzle (Easterlin Paradox) in Australia. Alternative specifications of happiness model that incorporate adaption, comparison incomes and other relevant variables are estimated using the panel data from the five waves (2001–2005) of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) surveys. The statistical tests provide no support for the adaptation effect on happiness. However, we find strong support for the theory of social comparison as an explanation for the happiness paradox. An increase in peer group income hurts the poor more than the rich, suggesting that a redistribution of income is likely to enhance the overall wellbeing of society. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to check the robustness of results.