绵阳市流动人口迁移规律

Based on the overall anatysis of the floating population among big and medium-sized cities in China, this paper, by means of statistics and questionnaires, makes a systematical study on the migratory features of the floating population in Mianyang, its employment structure, migrating causes and channels, According to the findings, the author finds a fact that with the strategy of Western Development, and with the construction of science and technology city of Mianyang, the migrating in Mianyang conforms to the general patterns of themigration, which has happened in those big and medium-sized cities in China. In addition, the city has a new but unique feature - economic factor, as the driving force of popufation migration, is quite distinct from that of those cities in eastern areas of China.     

筚路蓝缕异乡路:剪子湾的人口迁移(晚清—1949年)

剪子湾是一个非常典型的移民村庄,分析其人口变迁的过程,可为观察与研究城郊农村社会转型尤其是20世纪以来农村城市化进程,提供一个不可多得的标本。采用历史学的实证方法和社会学的田野调查,对剪子湾遗留的地契、清队登记表、口述资料展开了历史考察与成因解释,其中晚清至民国期间的人口发展与变迁是这一考察的核心。剪子湾的人口变迁由特定的经济、政治和社会诸多因素构成,是一个时间和空间上逐渐变化的过程。在来自不同方向的推力和拉力的综合作用下,大批的农民迁移到剪子湾,并由此形成了剪子湾独特的移民文化。     

Growth and distribution in Russia and China: A Social Accounting Matrix analysis

The paper reports on the multiplier analysis of comparable Social Accounting Matrices for Russia and China. The benchmark is around 1990, which constitutes a crucial year in their transition to more mixed market-state economies. Growth multipliers in China are found to be higher than in Russia, reflecting more intensive and balanced circular flow interactions. Distribution multipliers are less regressive in China than in Russia, which reflect stronger trickle-down effects and weaker leakage-up effects in the income and expenditure patterns of rich and poor household groups in China as compared to Russia.     

流动人口的迁移模式与市民化

流动人口实现市民化的程度可能与流动人口迁移的具体模式有关.利用全国流动人口卫生计生动态检测调查2017年数据的实证研究表明,迁移模式对流动人口的市民化存在以下影响:第一,相对于单独流动而言,只与子女一起迁移、只与父母一起迁移、与配偶和子女一起迁移、与配偶和父母一起迁移、与配偶子女和父母一起迁移对流动个体市民化均有显著的正向影响,其中与配偶子女和父母一起迁移对市民化水平的提高程度最大,大约使流动个体市民化水平提高5.8个百分点.第二,只与子女一起迁移、与配偶和子女一起迁移这两种迁移模式对年轻流动个体、女性流动个体和高中以上学历的流动个体市民化水平的影响不显著;对于这三个群体,父母在提高其市民化水平方面的积极影响仍然存在,且边际影响更大.第三,对于未婚流动个体,与父母一起迁移对其市民化有显著的积极影响.     

四川省不同行政层级城镇的人口迁移

四川省作为中国第四大人口大省,区域内部的自然和经济条件差异很大,人口在不同行政层级间的迁移导致不同层级人口增减不一。以市、县、小城镇三个行政层级为研究单元,研究四川省城区、县城、镇区人口的时空变化,结果发现:1四川省各等级居民点集中分布在成都平原、川东北、川南经济区,从各行政层级上看,城区人口比重较大,但规模等级结构较小且不完善;县城人口主要集中在10~20万和2~5万两个规模等级,空间上呈现东大西小的局势;小城镇镇区人口规模以1万以下为主。2成都平原、川东北和川南经济区城区人口比重大于镇区大于县城,攀西和川西经济区县城人口比重较大。从前期和末期比重的变化来看,成都平原经济区市区活力较大,且小城镇的增长快于县城;川东北和川南经济区小城镇和县城具有较大的人口集聚作用;攀西经济区县城对人口具有极大的吸引力;川西经济区县城人口比重减少,镇区人口比重增加。3从中心城市和小城镇的空间关系来看,平原和丘陵地区小城镇分布呈现倒U形特征,地形越复杂,小城镇分布越趋于均衡;不同地形区小城镇镇区人口增减不断波动,总体呈现在地形条件较好处,增长间隔大,地形起伏越大处,增长间隔越小的规律。     

财政分权对人口流动的影响——基于人口老龄化背景的分析

在我国人口快速老龄化的背景下,本文分析了财政分权对人口流动的影响机理,并利用面板数据,实证研究了省以下财政分权对人口流动的门限效应。结果表明:当老龄化水平较低时,纵向的财政分权可以促进人口大量迁入,而地方政府间横向财政自主度差异程度却对流动人口规模表现出显著的负面影响。当老龄化水平超过门限值后,政府间横向差异和纵向财政分权收入指标的影响不再显著,但财政分权支出指标对人口流入产生明显抑制作用。中央政府应根据各地区的老龄化程度进行地方政府间财政改革,并通过改革户籍制度、推动国家级城市群建设和调整落实人口老龄化政策等措施,进一步提高人口流动性。     

新时期人口流动和流动人口的统计学研究

20世纪80年代以来，中国发生了规模空前的人口流动，人口流动统计必被提到议事日程上来。中国特有的户籍制度引起人们对人口流动概念理解的歧义，从而出现社会上和学术界对相关概念和指标使用的混乱。笔者根据中国的国情，从统计学的角度对与流动人口有关的问题进行了探讨，提出了新的人口流动概念，并在此基础上，设计了一套科学适用的流动人口统计指标体系，以期解决当前存在且亟待解决的问题。     

Refugees as Surplus Population: Race,Migration and Capitalist Value Regimes

ABSTRACT

Refugees and migrants are often studied as though they have no relation to the racial and class structures of the societies in which they reside. They are strangers to be governed by ‘integration’ policy and border management. Refugees and migrants are, however, subjects of contemporary capitalism struggling to render themselves valuable capitalist modes of production. I study the government of refugees and migrants in order to examine capitalist value regimes. Societal values and hierarchies reflected in capitalist modes of production impact on struggles of racialised subaltern groups to translate body power into valued labour. Marx’s account of surplus populations points to the common marginalisations of people called ‘refugees’ and other subaltern groups struggling to translate their body power into valorised labour. The essay includes a study of the gentrification of a district in Budapest, and its transformation into a means for the reproduction of capital, leading to the marginalisation of groups who no longer fit the new value regimes. Studying refugees as surplus populations allows for a sense of the common marginalisations of subaltern and racialised groups before capitalism, and questions the treatment of refugees and migrants as ‘strangers’.     

福建人口迁徒论考

上古时候 ,福建地旷人稀 ,住的是闽越人。至宋 ,历经多次大规模的移民入闽 ,已成全国人口密度最高、人均耕地最少之地。至是 ,又开始大规模地向外移民。而移入福建的人 ,按照传统的说法 ,都是来自中原。但经细考 ,多数应属江浙赣的原住民 ;既使部分移民祖先原住中原 ,他们的子孙大半也都已入江浙赣数代 ,然后再辗转至闽 ,所以严格地说 ,也属江浙赣人。了解这一点 ,对研究今福建民情风俗习惯和方言的形成 ,当有一定的帮助。     

Entrepreneurial Migration in an Integrated World

A growing number of developed countries offer entrepreneurial visas as a means of attracting entrepreneurial talent and capital. In this paper, we use a simple two‐sector model of international trade with heterogeneous agents and financial frictions to show that entrepreneurial migration can contribute to the international efficiency of production, even when capital also flows internationally through borrowing and lending and foreign direct investment. In our model, all cross‐border transactions are motivated by cross‐country variations in the quality of financial institutions.     

Investment Behaviour,Population Structure and Long-term Growth in Eastern Europe and Russia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

中国人口迁移流动现状及发展趋势

根据第五次人口普查,我国人口迁移率达9.74%,人口流动率达12.33%。人口的迁移流动,以经济因素为主,以女性为多,且迁移流动者的文化程度普遍高于其他人口。由于城乡经济社会发展的差异,会有越来越多的人口向城市迁移。按城市化发展规律,城镇化发展需要的新增人口数量,低于农村人口外出迁移数,农村人口迁移对城市发展带来很大压力。为了实现人口顺利迁移流动,需要相应的配套策略。     

Migration between home country and diaspora: an economic analysis

"This paper investigates the distribution of a population group between a home country and diaspora, given sequential decision-making regarding migration at the individual level. The home country is attractive to the members of the group, yet their presence there requires a fixed amount of public spending (e.g., on defense). The per-capita tax burden depends then on the size of the domestic population, reflecting a case of ?fiscal externality'. This results in an inefficient distribution of the group between the home country and the diaspora. Encouraging immigration to the home country is an interest not only of those individuals who are currently in the home country but also of those residing in the diaspora. However, only when the burden of public spending in the home country is large enough do the latter volunteer to bear part of it. Even then, in general, this part is smaller than socially optimal."     

地区经济差距与人口流动:基于七国大都市区人口分布的比较研究

大都市区是一国人口的吸纳池。我国东部大都市区对人口的吸纳作用小,各大都市区的郊区和所辖县,以及多数大都市区的市区尚有很大的潜力和空间吸纳外来人口。鼓励包括中西部在内的农村剩余劳动力向东部大都市市区及郊区迁移,是一条减少地区和城乡经济差距,实现农村劳动力转移的有效途径。     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

中国农村人口省际省内迁移机制研究

本文基于农村劳动力转移理论和人口迁移理论,较为全面、综合地从8个层次选择了一系列变量,采用多元回归分析法对各个层面的影响因素进行的精确分析。研究发现,农村剩余劳动力省内转移与省际转移的驱动机制不同。相对较高的迁移成本使得跨省迁移的决策更需要劳动力理性的判断和思考.转移决策更多地取决于就业机会。     

Bankruptcy Reform in Russia: The Case for Creditor Rights in Russia

Russia at the dawn of the 21st century is experiencing a collapsing economy. In a world where healthy economies create and maintain capital, it is critically important that all efforts be made to assure all creditors and especially private direct investors that in the event of debtor-insolvency their business interests are protected. The role of bankruptcy law under a regime of what I call creditor rights is limited. The court system can be used to avoid a creditors's race to grab assets. Whenever the going concern value of a firm is greater than the sum of the assets sold separately a case can be made for a bankruptcy procedure as a way of protecting creditor rights. This paper examines the historical origins of the creditor rights tradition and advocates such a regime for modern Russia. This paper holds that especially with respect to Russia, we would do well to heed John Stuart Mill's advice and support reforms that favor creditors and protect the value of their rights. Those insolvent firms owned and managed by political oligarchs should be cut down, dismembered, and the assets they command transferred to new and more imaginative and solvent groups of managers.     

三峡库区人口结构性迁移对其城市化发展的影响研究

本文阐述了人口外迁对三峡库区城市化发展的正反两方面的影响,即:人口外迁减少了人口过多对城市发展造成的压力;三峡库区人口外迁呈现出人口结构性外迁的特点,这对三峡库区城市的可持续发展具有较大的负面影响。据此,本文指出,当前三峡库区人口的非均衡性结构性迁移,即大量的年轻型和技能型优质劳动力的外迁,使得非优质人口沉淀在三峡库区,这会造成未来三峡库区城市的城市化畸形发展。最后,提出了改善三峡库区劳动力素质、促进库区产业发展的对策建议。     

老龄化、人口迁移、金融杠杆与经济长周期

本文以房地产这一代表性的资本品为纽带,综合库兹涅兹"长周期"理论和城市层级体系理论,构建了中国"长周期"可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型。并以日本战后的人口数据和宏观经济数据为基础估计参数,模拟分析人口老龄化和人口迁移两大人口性因素对中国2015—2050年经济增长、城镇化和房地产价格的中长期影响。本文还引入金融杠杆和理性预期因素,探讨了杠杆率与经济增长、人口迁移及出生率的相互作用关系。研究发现,由于人口老龄化的影响,中国的经济增速在2021—2025年可能会出现台阶式下行,并触发房价下跌和"逆城镇化"。为此,必须注重"关键三率":(1)总和生育率,采取措施提高生育率在短期内和中长期都可以有效提高经济增速;(2)人口迁移率,提高人口迁移便利性有助于经济增长;(3)金融杠杆率,在确定长期杠杆率上限的基础上,短期内灵活运用杠杆工具有利于促进经济增长。只要风险可控,不宜过度压制杠杆率的自然上升。