Market Structure and the Environmental Implications of Trade Liberalization: Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

We investigate the environmental impacts of Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession with a computable general equilibrium model incorporating imperfectly competitive firms, foreign direct investment and endogenous productivity. WTO accession increases CO₂ emissions through technique (?), composition (+) and scale (+) effects. We consider three complementary policies to limit CO₂ emissions: cap and trade, emission intensity standards and energy efficiency standards. With imperfectly competitive firms, gains from WTO accession result with any of these policies. If we assume perfectly competitive market structures, the negative environmental impacts of WTO accession are smaller and no net gains arise when environmental regulation involves energy intensity or efficiency standards.     

Bulgarian Agriculture and EU Accession

This article analyses markets, income and agricultural policy changes in Bulgaria after its accession to the EU. A country AG-MEMOD model, consisting of 18 commodities organised in four sub-models (crops, livestock, milk & dairy and a link between crops and livestock) is applied. The model is an econometric, dynamic, partial-equilibrium and multi-product one. In order to examine the policy environment in Bulgaria, two scenarios are designed: baseline or non-accession (N-Ac) and accession (Ac). The accession scenario should have a very positive effect on the crop sector in Bulgaria, whereas the effect is the opposite on the livestock sector. The most remarkable results come from the milk sector. The effect on income is also positive, despite the pessimistic macroeconomic projections.     

The Effects of Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Financial Flows between Slovenia and the EU after Accession

The new version of the CGE model of the Slovenian economy based on the 1998 SAM was used for simulations of the consequences of further foreign trade liberalisation after 1998 as the outcome of implementation of Free Trade Agreements and the European Agreement, adaptation of the Customs Tariff to the for manufacturing products, adoption of the EU Common External Tariff after the accession of Slovenia to the EU, and estimated transfers between the two budgets. Results obtained show a positive net outcome of Slovenian accession to the EU in the long run. On the other hand, rational behaviour by the government will certainly moderate possible short-run negative effects and improve favourable long-run effects.     

Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence

The article analyzes that how much and to what directionthe inherited structure of the Central and East Europeancandidate countries was transformed in recent years, andwhat this shift meant for their real convergence in theenlarged EU. A rearrangement of historical importanceoccurred across the main sectors contributing to GDP, inthe framework of which services have been emancipated.Transition in manufacturing was characterized by a largevariation among countries in terms of speed of restructuring.Good output performance, however, is found not necessarilyassociated with large structural shifts. The dominance oflabor intensive products in manufacturing indicates thatproductivity catching up will necessitate further massiveshifts in this sector in some candidate countries. The moveaway from central planning meant also a drastic fall indomestic savings which, from the point of view catching up,shifted the emphasis to the ability to attract foreign savingsand the efficient use of savings in general.     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession

This study examines China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession commitments and assesses their implications for China and the world using a model reflecting the importance of duty-free intermediate inputs in China's exports. The WTO agreement built on earlier reforms that introduced competition into the trade regime, eliminated nontariff barriers and exchange rate overvaluation, and reduced tariffs. The reforms associated with accession were conservatively estimated to increase global real incomes by $74 billion per year, with $29 billion accruing to China and the remainder primarily to those countries trading directly with China. Some lower-income developing countries faced greater competition from China in third markets.     

浅析中欧贸易与欧盟技术性贸易壁垒

近年来,技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)已成为发达国家实施贸易保护主义更为隐蔽、更为有效的手段。作为中国第三大贸易伙伴的欧盟,其实施的各种TBT措施对中国的出口产品产生了严重的影响。为了能更好地了解欧盟的TBT,探求企业和政府应对TBT的措施,本文拟从技术性贸易壁垒的特点、中欧贸易现状、欧盟技术性贸易壁垒的主要措施、企业和政府的应对措施等角度探讨欧盟技术性贸易壁垒。     

Vietnam's Accession to the Asean Free Trade Area: Effects on Trade and Industrial Competitiveness

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession

This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkishaccession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatestnumber of council votes within twenty years, and receive thelargest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkishimmigrant population in Germany from 2 to 3.5 million in thirtyyears. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey,particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accessionare not economic, but political. Historical experience stopsTurkey from eliminating the decisive political role of the military,giving Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and upholdingbasic human rights.(JEL F02, F15, F22)     

Foreign Trade Patterns Between Estonia and the EU

In this paper, we focus on the development of the foreign trade flows between Estonia and the EU. We observe rapid reorientation of the trade flows from the former Soviet Union towards Western markets because of economic reforms and foreign trade liberalization. Moreover, we determine the commodity groups with a comparative advantage in the EU market and analyze its dynamics. Further analysis of the intra-industry trade (ITT) shows that vertical IIT plays a dominant role in Estonian-EU IIT flows. Shares of total, vertical, and horizontal IIT have grown rapidly since 2004, the year of accession to the EU.     

Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the European Union (EU)'s economic membership criteria for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Cyprus (the Candidate Countries) are fulfilled. To this end, I examine the actual and potential levels of trade between the Candidate Countries and the EU countries using the gravity model. The results show a high degree of trade integration between all Candidate Countries and the EU, indicating that the Candidate Countries would not face any serious difficulties in coping with the competitive pressure and market forces within the Union in the medium term. The European Commission, however, suggested the contrary for some of the Candidate Countries in its opinions of 1997.     

Exchange Rate Movements and Unemployment in the EU Accession Countries—A Panel Analysis

According to the traditional “optimum currency area” approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach, and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is put to the test, finding that volatility vis‐à‐vis the euro significantly increases unemployment. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation. However, labor market reform could be argued to be an equally worthy strategy, backed up by central bank independence and the adoption of an anti‐inflation monetary policy rule.     

中国园艺产品出口欧盟的贸易壁垒研究

文章以我国园艺产品出口欧盟遭遇的贸易壁垒为研究对象,对关税及非关税壁垒情况进行了分析,并以新贸易壁垒为研究重点.研究表明,欧盟设置的贸易壁垒给我国园艺产品的出口造成了较大的限制,目前主要表现为新贸易壁垒.我国政府和企业需采取相应措施,努力跨越贸易壁垒,促进园艺产品进入欧盟市场.     

What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?

In this paper, we estimate a sectoral gravity model for trade within a heterogeneous trade bloc, the enlarged EU, comprised of a high‐income group (wealthiest EU), a middle‐income group (Greece, Portugal and Spain), and a low‐income group (new Central and Eastern European member countries). The estimation was conducted on sectors with different degrees of scale economies and skill‐intensities in the presence of transport costs. The results offer support for the call to incorporate trade theories based on both endowments and scale economies. In addition, whilst integrating poorer countries is beneficial for all of the participants in the bloc, there is still a role for a redistribution policy, such as the EU's Regional Policy, which should comprise a mix of policies, focusing on both income and education/skills, together with infrastructure development.     

Money Demand in an EU Accession Country: A VECM Study of Croatia

The paper estimates the money demand in Croatia using monthly data from 1994 to 2002. A failure of the Fisher equation is found, and adjustment to the standard money‐demand function is made to include the inflation rate as well as the nominal interest rate. In a two‐equation cointegrated system, a stable money demand shows rapid convergence back to equilibrium after shocks. This function performs better than an alternative using the exchange rate instead of the inflation rate as in the ‘pass‐through’ literature on exchange rates. The results provide a basis for inflation rate forecasting and suggest the ability to use inflation targeting goals in transition countries during the EU accession process. Finding a stable money demand also limits the scope for central bank ‘inflation bias’.     

加入WTO十年的中国农产品贸易与竞争力问题研究

中国已成为世界农产品贸易大国。在农产品加入WTO十年中,由于成功地运用了两个市场,两种资源的互补性发展格局,带来了农产品贸易额不断增长的可喜局面,但另一方面,由于对外依存度越来越大,农产品国际竞争力整体不强等原因,中国农产品的未来发展仍面临种种问题,因而,制定相应政策目标和政策优化显得极为重要。     

On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade

The paper assesses the aggregate impact of exchange rate variability on EU trade. A small econometric model is constructed and estimated for five countries: France, Italy, Germany, the UK and Belgium. The results show that there exists a long-term relationship between trade variables and relative costs, demand, exchange rates and expected exchange rates. No such relation exists with respect to volatility. It is also found that while the most important determinants of trade variables are relative wages and demand, variability is also responsible for a decrease in the growth rate of these variables.     

欧美和中国对技术性贸易壁垒的研究综述

鉴于技术性贸易壁垒对世界经济和国际贸易的重要影响,各国学者都对技术性贸易壁垒问题进行了大量研究,并取得了丰硕的成果,这为相关国家和地区的政策制定提供了很好的决策参考。欧美发达国家是技术性贸易壁垒的发祥地,也最早从事技术性贸易壁垒研究。早在19世纪60年代,欧共体就意识到技术性贸易壁垒对国际贸易的限制作用,并于1969年制定了《消除商品贸易中技术性壁垒的一般性纲领》,第一次提出了在国际贸易中制定技术性贸易壁垒的贸易规则。美国随之向GATT建议拟定关于技术性贸易壁垒的协议。我国虽然遭遇技术性贸易壁垒的案例早已有之,但…     

The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization

In this paper a computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy is used to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses improved market access, Russian tariff reduction, and reduction of barriers against multinational service providers. It is assumed that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Russian business services providers, but cross‐border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit–Stiglitz framework. It is estimated that Russia will gain about 7.2% of the value of Russian consumption in the medium term from WTO accession and up to 24% in the long run. It is also estimated that the largest gains to Russia will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers. Piecemeal and systematic sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust.