Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence

The article analyzes that how much and to what directionthe inherited structure of the Central and East Europeancandidate countries was transformed in recent years, andwhat this shift meant for their real convergence in theenlarged EU. A rearrangement of historical importanceoccurred across the main sectors contributing to GDP, inthe framework of which services have been emancipated.Transition in manufacturing was characterized by a largevariation among countries in terms of speed of restructuring.Good output performance, however, is found not necessarilyassociated with large structural shifts. The dominance oflabor intensive products in manufacturing indicates thatproductivity catching up will necessitate further massiveshifts in this sector in some candidate countries. The moveaway from central planning meant also a drastic fall indomestic savings which, from the point of view catching up,shifted the emphasis to the ability to attract foreign savingsand the efficient use of savings in general.     

Trade Structure during Accession to the EU

This article discusses the degree of trade restructuring between the EU and the new member states during the accession process. Intra-industry trade is selected as a composite indicator of trade structure. Factor endowments, market size and distance are the most important determinants of intra-industry trade. The estimations for the OECD countries are used to compute predictions for EU15 trade with the CEE countries. In general, this approach predicts well the EU15 trade structure with CEE, which proves significant restructuring in the new member states. High shares of intra-industry trade imply lower welfare losses and less resistance to further deepening of integration in the participating countries.     

Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession

This paper discusses political and economic aspects of Turkishaccession. Under present rules, Turkey would have the greatestnumber of council votes within twenty years, and receive thelargest budget transfer. Free migration may increase the Turkishimmigrant population in Germany from 2 to 3.5 million in thirtyyears. Most of the economic effects will be felt by Turkey,particularly in agriculture. The main obstacles to accessionare not economic, but political. Historical experience stopsTurkey from eliminating the decisive political role of the military,giving Kurds and other minorities cultural rights and upholdingbasic human rights.(JEL F02, F15, F22)     

Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition

An unstable and erratic macroeconomy in an economy in transition might be expected to affect agricultural performance. This is tested for Bulgaria between 1992 and 1997 using impulse response functions from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Despite data limitations, it is found that shocks to the foreign exchange rate and interest rate feed into farm prices and agricultural exports but equilibrium will be re–established within 5 years. Agricultural policies may not be sufficient to counteract the wider macroeconomic forces.     

加入WTO对中国农业的影响

由于历史和现实原因，中国农产品的国际市场竞争力，总体上是处于劣势，但并非所有农产品都已失去比较优势。有些农产品的外贸优势正在加强，应当因势利导发挥比较优势，增强农产品的国际市场竞争力，加入WTO，必须扩大农产品市场的开放度，这是不言而喻的，但这并不意味着中国农产品市场会大门洞开，作为发展中国家的中国，可以利用WTO的规则，掌握农产品市场开放的主动权，把市场开放的风险降到最低限度。     

Exchange Rate Movements and Unemployment in the EU Accession Countries—A Panel Analysis

According to the traditional “optimum currency area” approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach, and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is put to the test, finding that volatility vis‐à‐vis the euro significantly increases unemployment. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation. However, labor market reform could be argued to be an equally worthy strategy, backed up by central bank independence and the adoption of an anti‐inflation monetary policy rule.     

Money Demand in an EU Accession Country: A VECM Study of Croatia

The paper estimates the money demand in Croatia using monthly data from 1994 to 2002. A failure of the Fisher equation is found, and adjustment to the standard money‐demand function is made to include the inflation rate as well as the nominal interest rate. In a two‐equation cointegrated system, a stable money demand shows rapid convergence back to equilibrium after shocks. This function performs better than an alternative using the exchange rate instead of the inflation rate as in the ‘pass‐through’ literature on exchange rates. The results provide a basis for inflation rate forecasting and suggest the ability to use inflation targeting goals in transition countries during the EU accession process. Finding a stable money demand also limits the scope for central bank ‘inflation bias’.     

欧盟促进农业科技成果转化的做法和经验

促进农业技术推广和成果转化是提高农业创新能力的重要环节。长期以来,欧盟一直在大力扶持农业研发成果的推广、技术转移和转化。一方面,通过实施共同农业政策的价格补贴等措施保护农民利益,鼓励农民采用新技术和新成果,促进成果转化;另一方面,通过欧盟框架研发计划,实施农业技术平台计划、联合项目计划等,建立包括农民和农业企业在内的利益攸关方(Stakeholder)共同体,推进农业技术转移和成果转化。通过对欧盟农业技术平台等促进成果转化的做法进行研究和分析,得到启示:农业科技成果转化,要注重农民的参与,注重发挥农业企业的作用,要强调顺应市场规律。     

The Effects of Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Financial Flows between Slovenia and the EU after Accession

The new version of the CGE model of the Slovenian economy based on the 1998 SAM was used for simulations of the consequences of further foreign trade liberalisation after 1998 as the outcome of implementation of Free Trade Agreements and the European Agreement, adaptation of the Customs Tariff to the for manufacturing products, adoption of the EU Common External Tariff after the accession of Slovenia to the EU, and estimated transfers between the two budgets. Results obtained show a positive net outcome of Slovenian accession to the EU in the long run. On the other hand, rational behaviour by the government will certainly moderate possible short-run negative effects and improve favourable long-run effects.     

欧盟新农业政策的特点和在比利时的实施

欧盟新农业政策的主要特点：一是把对农民的直接补贴与产量脱钩,农民具有更多的自主性;二是与环境、食品安全、畜牧标准相结合,实现农业和农村的可持续发展。本文简要介绍了欧盟及成员国比利时的农村服务体系、监督机制、多功能农业等基本情况,对我国农业政策和新农村建设有一定参考意义。     

Human Capital,Gender and Organisation in Transition Agriculture: Measuring and Explaining the Technical Efficiency of Bulgarian and Hungarian Farms

Based on survey data on Bulgarian and Hungarian crop and dairy farms, a double-peaked distribution of technical efficiency is observed. Several factors explain differences in efficiency. Human capital matters not only through age and education but also through gender, as farms with a higher proportion of women are more efficient. Contracting with upstream processors increases efficiency through facilitating the adoption of technology and access to credits. The superiority of family farms over corporate farms is confirmed for crops but not for dairy produce.     

2010年保加利亚科技发展状况

本文通过对保加利亚科技发展状况的研究,指出在政府对科技投入的预算大幅削减的情况下,该国科技发展受到了很大的影响,例如：科研工作几乎停滞、科研机构和人员大幅减少等等。为此,保加利亚议会于2010年10月通过了新修订的《促进科学研究法》,力图通过立法和财政支持加快本国的科技发展速度。     

加入WTO与我国税制改革

中国加入WTO带来的制度创新压力必然要求加快和深化税制改革,因此完善我国现行税收制度,改革现行税制中不合理的地方,是当前财税学界迫切需要解决的问题。本文拟从缩小我国税制与WTO基本制度框架的差距出发,浅析我国现行税制的完善。     

Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agriculture in the EU: A Spatial Assessment of Sources and Abatement Costs

Agriculture significantly contributes to emissions of greenhouse gases in the EU. By using a farm-type, supply-side oriented, linear-programming model of the European agriculture, the baseline levels of methane and nitrous oxide emissions are assessed at the regional level in the EU-15. For a range of CO₂-equivalent prices, we assess the potential abatement, as well as the resulting optimal mix of emission sources in the total abatement. Furthermore, we show that the spatial variability of the abatement achieved at a given carbon price is large, indicating that abatement cost heterogeneity is a fundamental feature in the design of a mitigation policy. The cost savings permitted by market-based instruments relative to uniform standard are shown to be large.     

加入WTO与银行上市

<正> 历经15年风雨,中国终于在2001年11月10日正式加入世界贸易组织,这一天因此成为中国的国家纪念日。2002年4月9日,招商银行敲响了上海证券交易所的金钟,作为上市公司的生力军正式登上中国资本市场的大舞台,从此成为招商银行发展史上重要的一页。在入世之后更加开放的国际化运作环境中,中国金融业必将呈现硝烟四起的竞争格局,中国的金融变革必将以更加深入彻底的方式加速演进。面对外资银行咄咄逼人的进攻势头,中国银行业面临着前所未有的竞争压力。招商银行在与时共进的成长历程中对入世后的机遇挑战早已形成了理性的预期和现     

Democracy and Accession to GATT/WTO

In this paper we argue that the level of democracy of an applicant country affects the time it takes to gain General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) accession. An extensive empirical search suggests that the GATT/WTO accession duration is likely to be shorter for an applicant whose political regime is more democratic. Meanwhile, countries that initiated applications before 1995 took longer to accede to GATT than those that initiated applications after 1995 to accede to the WTO. The GATT/WTO accession is shortened if the applicant country's economy is large. Such findings are robust to the choice of different econometric methods, data sets and model specifications.     

2007年保加利亚科技发展综述

2007年1月1日,保加利亚终于迈进了欧盟的大门,实现了多年的夙愿,欧盟国家的社会发展模式更加深入地影响到保加利亚社会的方方面面.     

Trade reorientation and post-reform productivity growth in Bulgarian enterprises

This paper analyzes the importance of integration into world markets following the collapse of central planning in explaining the productivity growth performance of Bulgarian firms. Using a large panel data set on 1,300 manufacturing firms for 13 quarters, we find that a shift towards sourcing from - and exporting to - OECD markets is a significant factor explaining firm-level total factor productivity growth.     

加入WTO与中国宏观经济管理创新

目前，我国已正式加入WTO。加入WTO必将给中国的宏观经济管理带来巨大的影响，因为世贸组织所确立的一系列规则和机制是用来规范和约束成员国的政府行为。本从宏观经济管理的能力，目标，主体，客体，手段等方面入手，分析了加入WTO对中国宏观经济管理的影响，在此基础上，提出了应对入世挑战的中国宏观经济管理的创新思路。     

“入世”与云南烟草

随着新世纪的到来,我国加入世界贸易组织的时间日益临近,各行各业都在纷纷思考应对之策,烟草行业因地区封锁、市场萎缩、价格下滑等问题困扰着众多烟草企业,就连云南烟草部分老大哥企业也困难重重.因此,在全新的形势面前,认真分析利弊,研究应对之策,对于云南烟草来说,既是当务之急,也是长远之计.