Adolphe Quetelet,the average man and the development of economic methodology *

Abstract

Quetelet's contribution to statistics has received adequate attention in Stigler (1986 Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Cambridge & London, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Porter's (1986) seminal works on the history of that scientific discipline. 24 24 See also Westergaard (1932 Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, London: King & Son.  [Google Scholar]: 167–70), Klein (1997 Klein, J. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. A History of Time Series Analysis 1662–1938, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]: 122–31). Our contribution investigates Quetelet's influence on economic methodology. Other scholars have already investigated his influence on econometrics and empirical economics (Morgan 1990 Morgan, M. S. 1995. The History of Econometric Ideas, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [1990] [Google Scholar], Stigler 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), but we argue that his influence on theoretical economics should be considered significant as well. We devote attention to Quetelet's concept of the ‘average man’. For this purpose we briefly summarize Quetelet's methodology and examine the evolution of his ideas as expressed in his published works. We then investigate his influence on Jevons's ‘calculus of pleasures and pains’ and on the statistical investigations of the German historical school. We argue that the history of statistics, and especially Quetelet's contribution, should not be neglected by historians of economic thought as it provides important insights into the development of economic methodology.     

China's interest in a revaluation of the yuan 1

This paper aims to illustrate how an equilibrium exchange rate of the Yuan would contribute to China's achievement of non-inflationary full employment – defined as internal balance by James Meade in 1951 Meade, James E. 1951. The theory of international economic policy, Vol I: The balance of payments, London: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar], as well as the balance of international payments. In terms of Meade's model, China currently has both excess demand and a payments surplus, so that it would benefit from revaluation, which helps curb internal inflation and the external foreign surplus simultaneously. For China, specifically, revaluation would support combating price increases and facilitate a shift of resources into consumption and raising living standards. The paper also examines three common reasons advanced by groups in favor of avoiding appreciation of the RMB, finding none of them theoretically or empirically convincing. The pursuit of both growth/employment and price stability objectives makes China unable to afford having an undervalued exchange rate.     

The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji: evidence from unit root structural break tests

The central aim of this paper is to investigate whether shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a permanent effect or a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji. To accomplish this aim the Zivot and Andrews (1992 Zivot, E and Andrews, D. 1992. Further evidence of the great crash, the oil-price shock and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10: 251–70.  ) one break test and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997 Lumsdaine, R and Papell, D. 1997. Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79: 212–18.  ) two break tests are used. The one break and two break tests reveal 1987 – the year of the military coups in Fiji – as the year of the break. Moreover, it is possible to reject the unit root null leading to the conclusion that shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji.     

The persistence of Taiwan's output fluctuations: an empirical study using innovation regime-switching model

In this article we examine the persistence nature of Taiwan's aggregate output fluctuations by using the ‘innovation regime-switching’ (IRS) model in which the effect of an innovation may be permanent or transitory, depending on an unobservable state variable that follows a first order Markov chain. By applying the IRS model to Taiwan's real GDP data, we find that during the 1961 to 2000 period 61% (39%) of the real output shocks are likely to have permanent (transitory) effects. Moreover, the innovations in the officially identified expansion (contraction) are more likely to have a permanent (transitory) effect. These results are similar to those found in many studies of US real output fluctuations, e.g. Beaudry and Koop (1993 Beaudry, P and Koop, G. 1993. Do recessions permanently change output?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31: 149–63. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Kim and Nelson (1999 Kim, C-J and Nelson, CR. 1999. Friedman's plucking model of business fluctuations: tests and estimates of permanent and transitory components. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31: 317–34.  [Google Scholar]) and Kuan et al. (2005 Kuan, C-M, Huang, Y-L and Tsay, RS. 2005. An unobserved component model with switching permanent and transitory innovations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23: 443–54. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). However, we also find that Taiwan's output dynamics have changed drastically ever since year 2000. In particular, the shocks to real GDP have become more likely to have only transitory effect, even during the period of post-2001:IV expansion.     

Nowcasting Chinese GDP: information content of economic and financial data

This article applies the factor model proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005 Giannone, D., Reichlin, L. and Small, D. 2005. “Nowcasting GDP and inflation: The real time information content of macroeconomic data release”. In Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2005–42, Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.  [Google Scholar]) on a large data set to nowcast (i.e. current-quarter forecast) the annual growth rate of China's quarterly GDP. The data set contains 189 indicator series of several categories, such as prices, industrial production, fixed asset investment, external sector, money market, and financial market. This article also applies Bai and Ng's criteria (2002) to determine the number of common factors in the factor model. The identified model generates out-of-sample nowcasts for China's GDP with smaller mean-squared forecast errors than those of the random walk benchmark. Moreover, using the factor model, we find that interest rate data is the single most important block of information to improve estimates of current-quarter GDP in China. Other important blocks are consumer and retail prices data and fixed asset investment indicators.     

The CBI Industrial Trends Survey — A Statistical Note

As the high tariff barriers of the inter-war period have been gradually reduced over the past twenty years, non-tariff factors have taken on an increasingly important role. One of the more notable of these factors is a country's level of excise taxes. Since these taxes are applied to both imports and domestic production, it is obvious that a given percentage change in excise taxes will have a smaller influence on trade than an equal percentage change in tariffs. Nevertheless, excise takes can be used to some extend as a substitution for tariffs. Hence, it would seem desirable to determine the degree to which such substitution will affect the volume of imports.

The role of taxes and tariffs in trade models has been considered in a number of theoretical discussions. ^{1 1} The effects of commodity taxes on the terms of trade and on domestic welfare have been analysed by MUNDELL, (1960), and by FRIEDLAENDER and VANDENDORPE (1968). However, virtually no effort has been made to examine the relationships among excise taxes, tariffs and imports in order to determine the extent to which countries can use excise taxes as a device to counterbalance the movement toward freer trade through the aegis of G.A.T.T. This study will attempt to rectify this omission.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mixing Sunnis and Shias: A Bayesian Errors-in-Variables Approach

How damaging is the Sunni/Shia split to the economies of Islamic countries? Is it better to be one or the other? Or is it better to have an even balance between the two? Answering these questions is complicated by the fact that the data are often missing or imprecisely measured. We employ the technique of Bayesian data augmentation to circumvent these two problems, and find that properly controlling for these features in the data leads to drastically different conclusions than what is found using ordinary least squares. We find that there is nothing in the differential nature of Sunni or Shia Islam to make one more economically prosperous than the other. Nor do we find any support for the popular hypothesis that Sunnis and Shias cannot mix.     

Beveridge's analysis of unemployment in 1909: the reserve of labour

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of unemployment published in 1909. First and foremost, it shows that his theory of unemployment is coherent – what Beveridge refers to as ‘the reserve of labour’ represents ‘unemployment’ as a whole; unemployment is due to the imperfection of the labour market and associated friction and the organisation of the labour market is necessary. Second, it suggests that as early as 1909, a negative relationship already existed between unemployment and job vacancies and that the segmentation of the labour market and imperfect information are key factors of friction. The first part of the paper provides a reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of the reserve of labour (1909) including causes and factors of unemployment and unemployment policies. The second part shows that certain founding principles of the ‘Beveridge curve’ (Beveridge 1944 Beveridge, W. H. 1944 [1953]. Full Employment in a Free Society, London: George Allen and Unwin.  [Google Scholar] [1953]) were already to be found in his 1909 book and that links can be established between Beveridge (1909 Beveridge, W. H. 1909. Unemployment: A Problem of Industry, London: Longmans, Green and Co.  [Google Scholar]), Phelps (1970 Phelps, E. S. 1970. The new microeconomic in inflation and employment theory. The American Economic Review, 59(2): 147–60. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Pissarides (2000 Pissarides, C. A. 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  [Google Scholar]).     

Hayek and the General Theory ∗

Abstract

Hayek did not review the General Theory, but he criticized it in Profits, Interest and Investment (1939 Hayek, F. A. 1939. “Profits, interest and investment”. In Profits, Interest and Investment, London: Routledge & Sons.  [Google Scholar]) and in part IV of The Pure Theory of Capital (1941 Hayek, F. A. 1941. The Pure Theory of Capital, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.  [Google Scholar]). First, he showed that only exceptionally does greater consumption favour investment and employment. Second, he rejected Keynes's liquidity preference and maintained that only in an ‘extreme case’ might it be said that Keynes's theory of the rate of interest is valid. Although he correctly identified the gist of Keynes's theoretical innovation, his criticisms were already implicitly answered in the General Theory.     

Another look at the spending response to the 2001 income tax rebates

This article revisits the spending response to the 2001 US tax rebates by focussing on two key aspects of how tax policy researchers use the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). These two attributes, which are often overlooked, are as follows: the measures used for consumption and the ‘outlier’ criteria applied to the data. First, I reproduce the results in Johnson et al. (2006 Johnson, DS, Parker, JA and Souleles, NS. 2006. Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. American Economic Review, 96: 1589–610. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which (using the CEX) concluded that households immediately spent 20–40% of their rebates on nondurable consumption goods. Then, I show how making two changes – both of which are relied upon in the literature – affects their results. These adjustments reduce the estimated magnitude of the rebate's impact by as much as 100%.     

Inflation,growth, and distribution: The Brazilian economy after the post war

Abstract

Following Marglin and Bhaduri (1990 Marglin, S.A., and Bhaduri, A. “Profit Squeeze and Keynesian Theory.” In S.A. Marglin and J. Schor (eds.), The Golden Age of Capitalism. Reinterpreting the Postwar Experience. Oxford: Clarendon, 1990. [Google Scholar]), the purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the interaction between income distribution and growth of aggregate demand during the 1951–89 period in Brazil. Applying Hein and Vogel’s (2008) methodology we conclude that the Brazilian economy showed a profit-led demand regime. In a context of high inflation, high concentration of markets, and wage control, retained profits were the main source to finance new capital. In this sense, we found a large sensitivity of investment relative to the wage share, a result that is compatible with a consumption pattern based on high income, which supported the growth trend with low wages observed during the period.     

Social responsibility for living standards: Presidential address,association for social economics, 2007

This address presents a vision of economics—drawing upon social, institutional, and feminist economics—that supports the assertion that there should be social responsibility for living standards. Alternative definitions of what an economy is and what economics should study are related to three definitions of living standards presented in Amartya Sen's 1985 Tanner Lectures on the topic. A social provisioning approach to economic life emphasizes that provisioning needs to be organized to promote human flourishing. One contemporary challenge is to do this in a manner that sustains caring and promotes gender equity. 1 1 Following my Presidential Address and prior to publication, I have benefited from comments by Wilfred Dolfsma, Laurie Nisonoff, Nancy Folbre, Ellen Mutari, Martha Starr, and an anonymous reviewer.      

Export activity,persistence and mark-ups

This article addresses the differences in margins across exporting and nonexporting firms. We jointly estimate a translog cost function, a variable factor share equation and price-cost margin equations to analyse the effect of persistence in export activity on margins. Results indicate that nonexporters have smaller margins than persistent exporters and firms that entered foreign markets during the nineties. However, larger export ratio is negatively associated with margins for persistent exporters. It suggests that efficiency advantages for exporters are partially compensated by higher competitive pressure in international markets. These results are in accordance with the predictions of Melitz and Ottaviano (2005 Melitz, MJ and Ottaviano, GIP. 2005. Market size trade, and productivity, NBER Working Paper Series No. 11393 (forthcoming in The Review of Economic Studies) [Google Scholar]).     

The effects of railroad development on price convergence among the states of the USA from 1866 to 1906

This study examines the effects of the reduced transaction costs on the price behaviours in the second half of the nineteenth century, where declines in transaction costs were mainly caused by railroad development during this period. It employs a panel test introduced by Levin and Lin (1992 Levin A Lin C 1992 Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties Discussion Paper 92-93 University of California San Diego CA ) on the convergence of wheat and corn prices using a panel of 48 US states from 1866 to 1906. The results show that, by decreasing transportation costs, railroads played an important role in price convergence among states of the USA for wheat and corn during the postbellum period.     

Politics of religiously motivated lending: An empirical analysis of aid allocation by the Islamic Development Bank

We investigate whether lending by the Islamic Development Bank mirrors Saudi Arabia's political interests based on religious affinity using panel data for its 56 member countries over the 1970–2007 period. Our results indicate that Sunni regime countries receive favorable treatment in terms of loan allocation, as well as Shia majority populated countries in exceptional occasions of conflict with other religious minority groups, while non-Muslim countries are the least favored. There is also evidence that lending by the World Bank to the same group of countries and over the same time frame does not respond to the political stance of Saudi Arabia founded on religion. These findings reveal the advantage that Saudi Arabia gains by assuming the leadership of a Regional Development Bank in contrast to coordinating common strategies in a global International Financial Institution with other large shareholders for whom religion might not be essential for political alliances.     

Oil prices and life satisfaction: asymmetries between oil exporting and oil importing countries

In spite of general consensus on the importance of oil prices for objective measures of economic well-being across countries, almost no research has been carried out to analyse the effects of oil prices on subjective well-being internationally. Using the World Values Survey (2009 World Values Survey 1981–2008 Official Aggregate v.20090901. (2009) World Values Survey Association, Aggregate File Producer: ASEP/JDS, Madrid. Available at www.worldvaluessurvey.org (accessed September 2010). [Google Scholar]), we help fill this gap by studying the effects of oil prices on life satisfaction for two groups of countries, oil importers and oil exporters. Although some previous studies have shown negative effects of oil prices on subjective well-being of one oil importing country the United States, since it is an outlier in terms of dependence on automobiles and in gasoline consumption per capita, these findings may not be representative of other oil importing countries. Our results show that, in fact, oil prices have quite strong negative effects on life satisfaction in a sample of over 40 oil importing countries. By contrast, for oil exporting countries for which there have been virtually no previous quantitative studies, but theoretical analyses suggest the results could be ambiguous, we find strong positive effects on life satisfaction. Hence, our results reveal quite strong asymmetries in the effects of oil prices on life satisfaction between oil importers and oil exporters.     

Surplus measures and luenberger Hicks–Moorsteen productivity indicator

This paper extends to production theory some notions of compensated and equivalent variation analyzed in Luenberger (Econ Theory 7:445–462, 1996) in a consumer context. Along this line the Luenberger–Hicks–Moorsteen productivity indicator introduced in Briec and Kerstens (Econ Theory 23:925–939, 2004) is derived from these concepts for multi-output production technologies. The dual properties of this productivity indicator are analyzed and an aggregate indicator is introduced inspired from the resource function proposed in Luenberger (1996). A connection to a suitable Slutsky matrix is established.     

Inequality,financialization, and economic decline

The objective of this article is to argue that the labor productivity slowdown experienced in recent years by several advanced countries can be explained, following a Kaldorian-Classical approach, by a weak gross domestic product (GDP) performance and by a decline in the wage share. Moreover, drawing inspiration from recent post Keynesian literature, the authors identify the ongoing worsening in income equality and the increase in the degree of financialization as other major explanatory factors of sluggish productivity. The article will provide a brief literature review concerning nonmainstream attempts to endogenize labor productivity, beginning from the famous Verdoorn-Kaldor law (Verdoorn, 1949 Verdoorn, P.J. “Fattori che Regolano lo Sviluppo della Produttività del Lavoro.” L’Industria, 1949, 1, March, 3–10. [Google Scholar]) and the Kaldor technical progress function (Kaldor, 1961 Kaldor, N. “Capital, Accumulation and Economic Growth.” In F.A. Lutz and D.C. Hague (eds.), The Theory of Capital. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1961, 177–222.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and including Sylos Labini’s productivity equation (Sylos Labini, 1984 Sylos Labini, P. The Forces of Economic Growth and Decline. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1984. [Google Scholar], 1999 —. “The Employment Issues: Investment, Flexibility and the Competition of Developing Countries.” BNL Quarterly Review, 1999, 52 (10), 257–280. [Google Scholar]). The authors will then discuss how labor flexibility and shareholder value orientation, one of the main aspects of financialization, can negatively affect equality and labor productivity. Finally, they propose an extended version of the Sylos Labini’s equation, where productivity growth is claimed to depend positively on GDP rate of growth and the wage share, and negatively on income inequality and financialization. They submit to empirical scrutiny their extended productivity equation; the results of their estimations provide support to their theoretical argument.     

On the location of public bads: strategy-proofness under two-dimensional single-dipped preferences

In a model with finitely many agents who have single-dipped Euclidean preferences on a polytope in the Euclidean plane, a rule assigns to each profile of reported dips a point of the polytope. A point $x$ of the polytope is called single-best if there is a point $y$ of the polytope such that $x$ is the unique point of the polytope at maximal distance from $y$ . It is proved that if the polytope does not have either exactly two single-best points or exactly four single-best points which form the vertices of a rectangle, then any Pareto optimal and strategy-proof rule is dictatorial. If the polytope has exactly two single-best points, then there are non-dictatorial strategy-proof and Pareto optimal rules, which can be described by committee voting (simple games) between the two single-best points. This also holds if there are exactly four single-best points which form the vertices of a rectangle, but in that case, we limit ourselves to describing an example of such a rule. The framework under consideration models situations where public bads such as garbage dumping grounds or nuclear plants have to be located within a confined region.     

On estimation of almost ideal demand system using moving blocks bootstrap and pairs bootstrap methods

This paper applies a bootstrap method to the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) proposed by Deaton and Muellbauer (Am Econ Rev 70:312–326, 1980), where the moving blocks bootstrap (MBB) and pairs bootstrap (PB) methods are adopted taking into account serially correlated error terms and limited dependent variables (note that the dependent variables in the AIDS model lie on the interval between zero and one). We aim to obtain the empirical distribution of the expenditure and price elasticities. Note that, the expenditure and price elasticities are obtained using the parameter estimates included in the AIDS model. In the past, a few studies report both the elasticity estimates and their standard errors obtained from the Delta method, but most of studies show only the elasticity estimates (i.e., statistical tests have not been done in most of the past studies). Applying MBB and PB methods to the AIDS model and using Japanese monthly household expenditure data from January, 1975 to December, 2012, we show in this paper that a few elasticities are statistically insignificant. We also compare the standard errors based on the bootstrap method with those based on the Delta method. We obtain the results that the differences between the Delta method and the bootstrap method are not negligible. In addition, the validity of the linear approximated AIDS (LA–AIDS) model which is commonly used in empirical studies is examined. In consequence, we find that the LA–AIDS model shows a poor performance, compared with the AIDS model, because the LA–AIDS model yields inconsistency on the elasticity estimates.