Assessing economic convergence in the EU: is there a perspective for the ‘cohesion countries’?

This article analyses the stochastic income convergence within the EU-15. The empirical analysis uses per capita GDP, in PPP and in constant prices of 2005 for the period 1950 to 2010. Apart from the traditional DF type tests we also account for possible structural changes. In this direction, we employ the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Lee-Strazicich (1999, 2003) testing procedures, for one and two breaks, endogenously determined. Furthermore, we apply the Carlino and Mills (1993) methodology proposed for the detection of β-convergence. The overall evidence supports the existence of two discrete clubs, the first by the ‘cohesion countries’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the second by the remaining members. In particular, there is a clear evidence of convergence within each club, whereas between clubs there is a luck of catching-up effects. Furthermore, investigation of correlation between relative per capita GDP of each country and several factors that are often identified as growth stimulants, namely Total Factor Productivity, FDI, investment and openness confirm, with the exception of Greece, a strong association between these factors and the convergence process. However, progress in the convergence has not been uniform across countries and over time, reflecting the specific interactions between domestic and international factors and their impact on the convergence process of individual countries.     

Monetary Cooperation in Europe and the Problem of Differential Productivity Growth: an argument for a ‘two-speed’ Europe

Cointegration analysis of a productivity-modified purchasing power parity relation supports the hypothesis that—in the long run—the nominal exchange rate adjusts to accommodate different national rates of productivity growth in the traded goods sector. Accordingly, in the long run, an absence of exchange rate flexibility combined with productivity growth differentials is likely to generate an intractable adjustment problem. Because Germany and France display a similar evolution of productivity, this analysis supports their participation in monetary union, whereas a markedly different pattern of productivity growth in the UK constitutes an argument against membership. In passing, we find empirical support for Michael Porter's hypothesis that continuous devaluation can reduce the rate of productivity growth. This also has implications for UK membership.     

Comment on ‘Cyclical and secular influences on the size distribution of personal income in the UK: some econometric tests’ by G. Weil

The issue of the relationship between domestic and eurocurrency interest rates is reexamined using the Granger causality test. It is concluded that while earlier results suggesting causality runs from the eurocurrency market to the domestic money market remains valid for the US dollar market, this result cannot be generalized to behaviour in the money markets denominated in sterling deutschemarks.     

What is the Message of ‘Understanding the Process of Economic Change’ for Economic Historians?

This paper addresses Douglas North's latest book in the light of his intellectual lifework. North's original insistence upon the role of transaction costs did not require a departure from the neoclassical framework as clear-cut as the one required by North's latest emphasis on the role of intentionality. North's recent interest in the cognitive premises of institutional constraints to rational choice considerably expands the scope of the economic analysis of change. However, North still considers institutions supporting homo oeconomicus to be the most important progressive element in history. The paper argues that North's message goes beyond what he would be willing to transfer into the practice of economic historians. In particular, North's new conceptual framework should open the way to the acknowledgment that a plurality of progress-oriented institutions are possible, and that individualism itself could be seen as a multi-dimensional concept.     

Is ‘oil and gas’ industry of ASEAN5 countries integrated with the US counterpart?

ABSTRACT

This paper employs the VARMA-MGARCH-ABEKK model and Granger causality on 15 years’ daily time series data to examine investment opportunities in the oil and gas industries for ASEAN5 countries relative to the US counterpart. It shows that the latter leads the former in decomposing integration into cross-country effects on returns and conditional return volatilities. The empirical results show that investors can gain an international intra-industry diversification benefit in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam by holding US oil and gas assets in their portfolios whereas Asian oil and gas assets may result in negative shocks due to the increase in return volatilities for Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. However, Thailand are insensitive to the cross-country intra-industry diversification. While making trading decisions, investors should be aware of the impulse responses of ASEAN oil and gas markets from the shocks in the US and the Asian markets and their asymmetric spill over effects.     

Is money where the fun ends? Material interests and individuals’ preference for direct democracy

Are people’s attitudes towards referendums as a decision-making procedure predominantly driven by their material self-interest, or do individuals also value direct democracy as such, regardless of the material payoffs associated with anticipated policy outcomes? To answer this question, we use a survey data set that offers information on respondents’ support for referendums as a procedure to decide on tax policy, their income levels, socio-economic characteristics, and, most importantly, their expectation about the majority’s support for higher taxes. We find that the support of low-income individuals for referendums increases substantially if they expect a clear population majority in favor of more redistribution. Conversely, individuals with a high income who expect a majority in favor of higher taxes do not reject referendums more strongly than individuals with an average income who share these expectations.     

Does ‘Work for the Dole’ work?: an Australian perspective on work experience programmes

This study examines the effect of Work for the Dole (WfD), a community-based work experience programme, on transitions out of unemployment in Australia. To evaluate the WfD programme, a quasi-experimental exact matching approach is applied. Participation in the WfD programme is found to be associated with a large and significant adverse effect on the likelihood of exiting unemployment payments. The main potential explanation is the existence of a ‘lock-in’ effect whereby programme participants reduce job search activity.     

A hard landing for the ‘New Economy’? Information technology and the United States national system of innovation

This paper discusses the probability of a hard landing for the US economy. It argues that information and communication technology (ICT) has not changed the fundamental nature of the business-cycle and the instability of investment behaviour. It analyses some of the strengths of ICT in the United States, but suggests a resemblance between ICT and previous waves of diffusion of new technologies, notably the boom of the 1920s.     

What's Left for ‘Social Europe’? Brexit and Transnational Labour Market Regulation in the UK-1 and the EU-27

The paper examines UK government positions on the regulation of transnational labour in the context of Brexit. Through an analysis of EU regulations on posted workers – the practice whereby a company based in one EU member state sends workers to carry out a service in another EU member state – the paper argues that the UK has consistently advocated further liberalisation of transnational labour markets in EU level decision-making, a position consistent with promoting increasingly ‘flexible’ labour markets at home. Brexit marks a turning point. Demands from British workers for stronger protection against liberalising pressure help explain the UK's recent shift towards relaxing its opposition to ‘market-correcting’ EU initiatives like the revised posted worker directive. Brexit provides a window of opportunity for the revitalisation of ‘Social Europe’ in the EU-27, without a longstanding veto player at the bargaining table, but one more likely focused more on upholding national labour protections than initiating new supranational policies.     

Price Premiums for Eco-friendly Commodities: Are ‘Green’ Markets the Best Way to Protect Endangered Ecosystems?

‘Green’ markets represent a means through which public goods can be privately provided. A green product is an impure public good consisting of a private good (e.g., rain forest honey) bundled with a jointly produced public good (e.g., biodiversity protection). In the context of ecosystem protection, popular green commodities include eco-tourism excursions, coffee grown under forest canopies (‘shade-grown’), tagua nuts for buttons and ornaments, rainforest nuts and oils for cosmetic products, and rain forest honey. We examine the dynamic efficiency of eco-friendly price premiums in achieving ecosystem protection and rural welfare goals by contrasting the use of price premiums to the use of payments that are tied directly to ecosystem protection. We demonstrate analytically and empirically that direct payments are likely to be more efficient as a conservation policy instrument. Depending on the available funds, the direct payments may be better or worse than green price premiums in achieving rural welfare objectives. If direct payments are not feasible for social or political reasons, we demonstrate analytically and empirically that the price premium approach is likely to be more effective at achieving conservation and development objectives than the currently more popular policy of subsidizing capital acquisition in eco-friendly commercial activities.     

Is there an ‘interest rate – speculation’ relationship? Evidence from G7 in the pre- and post-2008 crisis

The article revisits the IS-LM macroeconomic model by incorporating speculation into the investment function. The discussion is supported empirically by using data from the G7 countries to examine the different interest rate regimes in the pre- and post-2008 financial crisis. The estimation of an ‘anchor’ interest rate provides a reference rate for the G7 countries. The empirical study is extended to examine if the three quantitative easing (QE) episodes in the U.S. are growth promoting. The article concludes that the maintenance of a high and stable interest rate policy is needed for sustainable growth in the G7 countries.     

Is it the economy,stupid? The role of social versus economic factors in people’s support for hosting the Olympic Games: evidence from 12 democratic countries

Public referenda have gained momentum as a democratic tool to legitimize public mega projects such as hosting the Olympic Games. Interest groups in favour of hosting the Olympics therefore try to influence voters through public campaigns that primarily focus on economic benefits. However, recent studies find no or hardly any economic impact of hosting the Olympics, instead providing evidence for a positive social impact. This raises the question whether citizens consider economic or social factors when deciding on hosting the Olympics. Based on representative survey data from 12 countries, our results suggest that economic factors can influence voting behaviour, although the influence of social factors is stronger.     

A critique of the paper by Kanabar,R. and Simmons,P. (2016), ‘To defer or not to defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model’, Applied Economics, 48, 58, 5699-5716

We suggest corrections to the paper by Kanabar and Simmons and provide analyses for deriving the internal rate of return arising from a UK state pension deferral decision and for an actuarially fair deferral scheme.