Post‐cold war self‐determination: Ireland and east Timor

The national conflicts centred on Northern Ireland and East Timor bear little resemblance. Yet the two main political groupings aspiring to national liberation, Sinn Féin in Ireland and the National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) have developed remarkably similar peace proposals. These define the process of reconstruction, protection of human rights and self‐government as separable from issues of state sovereignty, at least in the medium term. Both have promoted the creation of transitional structures to address these issues, delaying self‐determination in order to promote conflict resolution and political reconciliation. The two peace initiatives have been relatively successful in seizing the moral high ground, and have forced the respective state authorities to participate in a process of peace‐making that has substantially recast the exercise of political authority.     

The New Geopolitics of Disease: Between Global Health and Global Security

This article describes the emergence of a new geopolitics of disease following the end of the Cold War and offers a framework for thinking about it. Three main questions are asked. First, why is disease now a geopolitical issue? Second, how has this new geopolitics emerged? And third, what are the implications of the emergence of disease as a geopolitical issue for the meaning and practice of global health? It is argued that disease is now seen as a geopolitical issue in terms of four main dimensions: destabilisation, sovereignty, the instrumentalisation of health, and geopolitical economy. Second, this new geopolitics has emerged in the context of larger debates about globalisation, development and security, and has emanated primarily from Northern institutions. Third, drawing on critical approaches to security, it is suggested that while the securitisation of health offers certain benefits, it also carries risks. The article identifies a number of critical tensions in the new geopolitics of disease as a way of negotiating these risks and anchoring the concept of global health security in a larger vision of health in an era of globalisation.     

Towards Fair Employment in Northern Ireland?

Claims of labour market discrimination against Catholics run to the heart of the Northern Ireland conflict. This paper assesses British Government led moves to promote fair employment in the region. It argues that initial policies to promote labour market balance were weak and ineffectual but that since 1989 a meaningful antidiscrimination institutional regime has been put in place. However, underlying economic and social conditions are not favourable to a big institutional push toward fair employment. Thus the quest to end Catholic disadvantage in the labour market is caught between a positive institutional regime and negative ground level circumstances. The paper concludes that the unpredictable outcome of this tension will be better managed in conditions of peace.     

Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

We investigate the effect of trade integration on interstate military conflict. Our empirical analysis, based on a large panel data set of 243,225 country‐pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the peace‐promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflict. More importantly, we find that not only bilateral trade but global trade openness also significantly promotes peace. It shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of interstate conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The main finding of the peace‐promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.     

The Multiscalar Production of Borders

The present geopolitical situation has made the debate on borders and their functions, significance, and symbolism more prominent than at any time since the end of the Cold War. While the various processes of globalisation have challenged the traditional border concept, the scalar model of identity and society remains primarily anchored in national space. The understanding of the state as a multiscalar construction, constantly negotiated and reconfigured by its actors at different levels, allows us to broaden the scope of our analysis and rethink and transform the spatial formations previously taken for granted in assessing the impacts of globalisation more regionally. State borders continue to have considerable relevance today, yet as the articles brought together in this special section will demonstrate, borders must be understood as complex, multiscalar, multidimensional, yet dynamic entities that have different symbolic and material forms, functions, and locations. With examples from Europe, Southeast Asia and the global south, this section aims to advance our knowledge of the multiscalar dynamics of border politics. The articles investigate how borders are negotiated vis-à-vis questions of identity, belonging, political conflict, and societal transformation, and how they are re- and deconstructed through various institutional and discursive practices at different levels and by different actors.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FOR MANUFACTURING PLANTS IN IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND

The dramatic GDP and export growth of Ireland over the last decade forms a marked contrast with that of its nearest neighbour Northern Ireland. In Ireland, export volume growth averaged 15.5% p.a. from 1991 to 1999 compared with 6.3% from Northern Ireland. Using data on individual manufacturing plants this paper considers the determinants of export performance in the two areas. Larger, externally owned plants with higher skill levels are found to have the highest export propensities in both areas. Other influences (plant age, R&D, etc.) prove more strongly conditional on location, plant size, and ownership. Structural factors (e.g. ownership, industry) explain almost all of the difference in export propensity between larger plants in Northern Ireland and Ireland but only around one‐third of that between smaller plants. Significant differences are also evident between plants in terms of their sources of new technology. For indigenously owned plants, in‐house R&D is important. For externally owned plants, R&D conducted elsewhere in the group – typically outside Ireland and Northern Ireland – proves more significant. This external dependency and lower than expected export propensity on the part of small plants in Northern Ireland represent significant policy challenges for the future.     

Going global: differential accumulation and the great U-turn in South Africa and Israel

This paper offers a new theoretical approach for comparing the current political-economic U-turns in South Africa and Israel. Our principal focus is on a revised notion of capital, emphasizing the central role of differential accumulation by dominant capital groups. We further distinguish between an antagonistic “depth” regime in which differential accumulation is achieved via stagflation, and a less conflictual “breadth” regime where redistribution occurs through growth. Within this framework, we argue that both the recent transition in the two countries, as well as their former regimes, were greatly affected by global developments. Until the 1980s, accumulation in both countries depended largely on depth, characterized by a marked disparity between deepening crisis on the one hand, and rapid differential accumulation on the other. In South Africa, the large companies benefited disproportionately from the impact on gold profit of global inflation, and were therefore reluctant to abandon apartheid. Similarly, Israel’s leading firms recorded spectacular gains riding the global arms race and regional conflict, and hence voiced little opposition to the continuation of a war economy at home. Recently, however, these global forces went into reverse, triggering in both countries a shift from depth to breadth. The disinflation associated with rapid globalization undermined gold profit in South Africa, while the end of the Cold War pulled the rug from under the global arms race, drying up the flow of war profit in Israel. In these new conditions, dominant capital groups in the two countries can sustain their differential accumulation only by investing outside their own borders. Capital mobility, though, requires political-economic stability, hence the support of these groups for democracy in South Africa and to regional reconciliation in Israel.     

An Economistic Interpretation of the Northern Ireland Conflict

Tullock (1971) demonstrated that the causes of political rebellion are perhaps more to do with private expected utility than collective discontent. There is much to suggest that pecuniary motivation plays a large part in the Northern Ireland (NI) conflict given the substantial amount of 'black market' activity which is present. This paper therefore puts forward an economic model of the NI paramilitaries blending their gangster and political activities which are commonly geared to earn revenue. From this model an explanation from an economic perspective emerges as to why a cease-fire may occur and why it is unstable. The implications of the model are then investigated, with particular reference to conflict solutions arising from the economic model rather than political diplomacy.     

The Mandate and the (In)Effectiveness of the United Nations Security Council and International Peace and Security: The Contexts of Syria and Mali

The article examines the (in)effectiveness of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as an enforcer of peace and security in the post–Cold War global order and teases out the tensions between the mandate and its enforcement. Through an examination of the cases of Syria and Mali and the related UNSC resolutions, the article demonstrates that the council’s role is primarily guided by the geopolitical visions and interests of its veto-wielding permanent members (P5). The action or inaction of the council depends on whether a particular situation is tangential or core to the concern of a permanent member or a group of members. Geopolitical visions guiding the interests of the permanent members dominate the UNSC-mandated concerns of international peace and security. While the conflict situations in Syria and Mali posed similar problems, the council emerged largely effective in the later and ineffective in the former owing to the clash of geopolitical visions. In the case of Syria the clash of visions eclipsed the global concerns for peace, while in the case of Mali the absence of the clash enabled the council to enforce peace.     

Who Gains from the “No War No Peace” Situation? A Critical Analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the second half of the 1980s, Nagorno-Karabakh has been represented from two perspectives of ethnic incompatibility, which justifies ethnic cleansing by matching the state borders with ethnic ones, and the Great Game narrative, which examines the conflict as part of the global power struggle in the Eurasian continent by disregarding societies and undemocratic regimes in the region. However, time has revealed that these perspectives neither appreciate the internal conditions of the conflict nor offer a way out of the current impasse. By criticising the ‘commonsense’ and ‘realness’ of these representations, this study argues that analysing who gains from the current status quo will offer solutions for a sustainable peace in the region. As long as undemocratic regimes of Azerbaijan and Armenia are satisfied with the status quo and outside powers maximise their interests, the ‘no war no peace’ situation will not be challenged. A way out is only possible by including the people, who are actually on the losing side, in the decision-making and peace-making process.     

Norms in conflict and confusion: Six stories in search of an author

Political conflict involves the conflict of norms; yet resolution of political conflict requires that the disputants share some norms about conflict resolution. This presents a problem at the global level, where no such shared normative framework exists. The world is increasingly interconnected; yet the peoples of the world continue to embrace ideas of separateness which are reinforced by their various normative systems. The authors identify six major “stories”—worldviews or paradigms—competing in the current postmodern world: the Western-style mystique of progress, Christian fundamentalism, Islamic fundamentalism, Marxist revolutionary ideology, Green politics, and the “new paradigm.” Each of this is in conflict with other normative systems, and none is adequate to serve as the normative framework for a global society. Whether or not such a society emerges depends on whether, as a fundamental characteristic, there exists an ability to deal with information—not only data and concepts, but also “meta-information” about the uses and limitations of information. Whatever the norms of a global information culture, its emergence will be accompanied by a protracted period of conflict and great stress for individuals and institutions of governance.     

Positivist Climate Conflict Research: A Critique

In recent years a large body of work has emerged that uses a positivist epistemology and quantitative methods to assess the likely conflict impacts of global climate change. This article advances a critique of this positivist climate conflict research programme, identifying within it three serial shortcomings. It contends, first, that the correlations identified by this research are specious, since they always rest upon coding and causal assumptions which range from the arbitrary to the untenable. It argues, second, that even if the correlations identified within this research were significant and meaningful, they would still not constitute a sound basis for making predictions about the conflict impacts of climate change. And it submits, third, that this research programme reflects and reproduces an ensemble of Northern stereotypes, ideologies and policy agendas. A departure from positivist method is required, the article contends, if we are to get close to thinking through the wide-ranging political and conflict implications of the human transformation of the global climate.     

The Evolution of Technical Efficiency in the Northern Ireland Manufacturing Sector, 1973–1985

This paper uses a stochastic frontier production function approach to measure technical efficiency in firms in Northern Ireland. Firm level census of production panel data were used to examine how efficiency in firms changed over the period 1973–1985. Once estimates of efficiency were made, the causes of inefficiency based on characteristics of firms were examined. The results indicate that efficiency in Northern Ireland has improved significantly over-time. The largest increases in efficiency were in indigenously owned firms. The results suggest that many Northern Ireland owned firms were 'catching-up' in terms of efficiency with foreign owned firms over the period.     

Welfare distribution of collective in-kind transfers in education: an application to the extended schools programme

In this study, we employ the distributional characteristics approach to analyse the welfare distribution of the Extended Schools Programme, a social programme that fights inequality in Northern Ireland’s public schools. Our main result is that increasing funding to schools as their size increases penalizes the most deprived students. This is because the school size, although related to the educational supply, does not reflect the distribution of deprivation within schools. Thus, although in the Northern Irish context the largest welfare gains are possible if funds are redistributed among middle-size schools, our general result indicates an excessive support of small-size schools at the expenses of large-size schools.     

The effect of the Troubles on GDP in Northern Ireland

This paper explores the effect of conflict on GDP in Northern Ireland. A synthetic control region constructed as a weighted average of other UK regions provides an estimate of counterfactual ‘no-conflict’ GDP. Comparing this with actual per capita GDP suggests a negative impact of up to 10%. Excluding the increased grants provided in response to the conflict, a 15–20% reduction is evident. Most forms of terrorist activity had negative effects over the period 1969–1997. Deaths attributable to Republican paramilitary groups or to the State appear to have a greater and more lasting impact on GDP than deaths attributable to Loyalist paramilitaries.     

Aiding refugees,aiding peace?

I add two novel features to the two‐player contest model, the workhorse model of civil war: civilians can flee (i.e., become refugees) and refugees receive aid. I find that aid to refugees can promote peace or fuel conflict, depending on the context.     

Exploring the Existence of Local and Global Knowledge Spillovers:Evidence from Plant‐Level Data*

We investigate the existence of local (within‐country) and global (between‐country) knowledge spillovers within a single analytical framework. Our study is based on a detailed database of domestically owned and foreign‐affiliated manufacturing plants located in Ireland. The results of our econometric analysis show that domestically owned plants benefit from the research and development (R&D) activities of other domestically owned plants, as well as from R&D activities conducted in the country of origin of foreign‐owned plants through their presence in Ireland. A fundamental difference between such locally generated and locally transmitted global spillovers appears to be that the latter are much less constrained by distance decay effects.     

Economic Globalisation and Youth Unemployment – Evidence from African countries

The present study seeks to examine the impact of economic globalisation on youth unemployment for 50 African countries between the period 1994 and 2013. In addition to the economic globalisation measurements, the present study controlled the variables that represent the fluctuations in economic activates; demographic changes, a country’s economic size; the quality of governmental institutions; and labour market regulation. The results of the Arellano-Bond (A-B) GMM technique showed that greater openness to global markets would reflect in a lower youth unemployment rate. Furthermore, the results revealed that rigidity in labour market regulations seemed to reduce the youth unemployment rate. In addition, urbanisation seemed to raise the youth unemployment rate. The findings supported contemporary calls to participate in international trade to facilitate the job creation process.     

Post‐conflict stabilization in Africa

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success