关于“双顺差”背景下实现中国内外均衡的思考

内外均衡目标是指充分就业、物价稳定、经济增长及国际收支均衡。目前，中国正面临通货紧缩的压力和国际收支双顺差的格局，因此需通过扩张性的财政及货币政策进行协调，同时辅以汇率及利率政策。只有内外兼顾统一才能使经济实现稳定发展。     

External balance,dynamic efficiency,and the welfare effects of unilateral and multilateral permit policies in interdependent economies

This paper investigates domestic and foreign welfare effects of unilateral and multilateral permit policies in a two-country overlapping generations model with producer carbon emissions. We show that the welfare effects of a more stringent cap on emissions depend on the external balance of the policy implementing country, the dynamic (in)efficiency of the world economy, and the preference for environmental quality. Under dynamic efficiency, the global welfare loss of policy implementation in a net foreign creditor country is lower than of a policy in the net foreign debtor country. Moreover, although the country which has unilaterally implemented a permit policy would gain from a multilateral policy, the associated welfare loss for the other country is larger than that of a unilateral policy abroad.     

中国经济内外失衡的原因及政策调整

近年来,中国经济在快速增长的过程中也出现了内外失衡的问题。内部失衡以高储蓄、高投资和低消费为主要特征,储蓄和投资出现失衡,投资和消费关系不协调,外部失衡表现为国际收支"双顺差"。中国内外失衡既有财税分配体制与汇率政策等制度原因,又有出口导向型经济发展战略与粗放式经济增长方式等经济结构原因。为此,必须加强和完善城乡社会保障体制,采取更具针对性的公共支出政策,增强汇率弹性和本外币政策的相互协调,促进国际收支平衡与中国经济的可持续发展。     

中国财政政策的外部均衡效应:相对效力检验

中国国际收支"双顺差"的长期存在,表明中国经济存在一定程度的外部失衡.基于蒙代尔政策指派理论模型以及协整检验和误差修正模型的实证估计,可以发现中国财政政策对外部均衡的相对调控效力要优于货币政策,因此中国应运用出口退税等财政政策来促进外部均衡的实现,并考虑选择发行超长期债券方式为财政赤字融资,同时还应及时完善其他宏观经济政策,从而实现中国经济长期稳定的协调发展.     

The Borrower of Last Resort: International Adjustment and Liquidity in a Historical Perspective

The stability of the international monetary system hinges on a dominant country acting as an international lender of last resort, injecting liquidity by recycling surpluses to countries facing balance of payments problems. The efficacy of this mechanism does not depend on the dominant country retaining a “creditor” status. Rather it has depended historically, on the dominant country’s ability to continue to borrow, in the face of growing external deficits without undermining the status of its currency as international money. A pivotal role is played by the institutional mechanisms that allow the dominant country to borrow from surplus countries on one hand and lead to increasing fragility in peripheral debtor countries on the other. The paper argues that such triangular adjustment patterns underlay both the gold standard period where Britain was a net creditor and the present “floating dollar regime” where the United States is a net debtor.     

Input-output pricing in a Keynesian model as applied to Portugal

This paper develops a Keynesian model of the Portuguese economy in which the prices of the sectors of final demand are derived from input-output relationships. This model is used for short-run simulation analysis of the Portuguese economy through 1977. It is seen that Portugal cannot simply rely on world demand for its exports to improve its balance of payments and to generate an export-led recovery. Simulation of a policy package which includes a devaluation and fiscal restraint indicates that this policy will improve the external current account and raise domestic savings.     

高管股权激励 、约束机制与对外直接投资速率

对外直接投资速率是企业国际化过程中面临的重要决策 ,但并未引起学术界的广泛重视.文章从公司治理的视角剖析了企业对外直接投资速率的决策驱动机制,并基于2004-2013年中国上市公司在全球范围内的对外直接投资数据 ,探讨了高管股权激励对于对外直接投资速率的影响以及高管所面临的内外部约束机制对两者关系的调节作用.实证结果显示:(1)股权激励总体上使得高管倾向于选择快速扩张的投资策略;(2)内部约束机制会强化高管股权激励与对外直接投资速率之间的正向关系;(3)外部约束机制会弱化高管股权激励与企业对外直接投资速率之间的正向关系.进一步研究发现:在民营企业内部 ,高管股权激励对于加快企业投资的激励效果以及外部约束机制的调节作用更加明显;而无论是民营企业还是国有企业 ,内部约束机制的调节作用均十分显著.文章为如何充分调动企业高管积极性和主动性去实施"走出去"战略以及抓住国际化机遇提供了借鉴.     

Sectoral labor adjustment and monetary policy in a small open economy

This paper studies the welfare implications of sectoral labor adjustment cost in a two-sector small open economy model with sticky prices. We find that, when the economy faces external shocks, if monetary policy can stabilize the real economy, then sectoral labor market adjustment cost will lead to welfare loss. However, if monetary policy such as fixed exchange rates cannot stabilize real variables, then some degree of labor market friction will improve welfare instead and the gain will be significant. As a result, the welfare gap between flexible exchange rates and fixed exchange rates decreases with sectoral labor market friction. This is because the friction can offset some of the nominal rigidity and become a substitute for monetary policy to stabilize the real economy.     

Welfare cost of inflation in a stochastic balanced growth model

There is a large and growing literature on the welfare cost of inflation. However, work in this area tend to find moderate estimates of welfare gains. In this paper we reexamine welfare costs of inflation within a stochastic general equilibrium balanced growth model paying a particular attention to recursive utility, portfolio balance effects, and monetary volatility and monetary policy uncertainty. Our numerical analysis shows that a monetary policy that brings down inflation to the optimum level can have substantial welfare effects. Portfolio adjustment effects seem to be the dominant factor behind the welfare gains.     

The economic fertility of industrial projects

The economic impact of two industrial projects was forecast using economic fertility analysis. The results of the analysis suggest that the implementation of projects such as those described here add to the resources of government, enabling them to move closer to realization of social objectives, whereas concurrent decreased government revenues and increased transfer payments based on short term political considerations are directly inflationary and represent a threat to longer term social stability. The two projects were a crude oil petrochemical plant, with an investment of $200 million, and a controlled environment agricultural plant, costing $20 million. Direct, indirect, and induced economic activity for each project were calculated, from which income and employment multipliers, and forward and backward linkages were derived. New government revenues, balance of trade effects, and new capital formation were also forecast. Employment in terms of man-years on construction and in jobs created by the operations, as well as consumer expenditures and personal savings, were other outputs of the analysis. Construction and operation phases of the two projects were more beneficial than an equivalent increase in transfer payments in the generation of longer term effects such as new capital formation, new government revenues, and import-export balance, but were less efficient than increased welfare payments in generating short term effects such as consumer expenditures and short term employment.     

“全面二孩”政策实施能有效破解城镇职工养老保险基金支付危机吗*——基于不同人口政策效果情景的分析

本文运用人口预测模型和养老金收支缺口模型,在分析“全面二孩”政策实施对城镇出生人口短期和长期影响的基础上,测算了“全面二孩”政策不同实施效果情景下城镇职工养老保险基金收支平衡的变化。实证结果表明：（1）“全面二孩”政策实施将推迟城镇总人口峰值出现的时间,同时会增加人口峰值的规模。（2）政策效果在悲观和折中情境下,“全面二孩”政策实施只是推迟了养老保险参保职工人口下降拐点出现的时间,改变不了参保职工人口下降的总体趋势;在乐观情景下,可以保持参保职工人口的基本稳定。（3）“全面二孩”政策实施有利于城镇职工养老保险的收支平衡,政策效果从2037年开始显现,三种政策效果情境下弥补当年养老金缺口的比例分别为36%,52%,68%。影响效果从2040年开始逐年减弱,到2050年弥补养老金缺口的比例分别下降至11%,27%和50%,不能改变养老金缺口不断扩大的趋势。     

Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India

Objectives of the 1996 overhaul of the US welfare system included reducing dependency, raising employment and de-incentivizing out-of-wedlock fertility. Using public use state-level panel data from 1990 to 2005, I analyse how state implementation of welfare reform simultaneously affects the caseload, employment and out-of-wedlock births (henceforth, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) objectives). Because endogeneity and simultaneity could not be rejected, I use Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method. Results indicated that most of the steep decline in the caseload is attributed to welfare reform, while the economy's overall effect paled in comparison. However, lagged and contemporaneous unemployment individually ranked second and third behind the Hispanic share of state population. The conservative tilt over the period studied ranked forth, followed in declining order by full family sanctions, Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) payments, time limits (lagged by length), access to abortion clinics, lump-sum TANF diversion payments, and TANF benefit payments. Findings also suggest that policy does not always work as intended: caseloads are found to be higher in states that have highly regarded family formation and job retention TANF programs; and EITC payments are associated with lower not higher caseloads. The most compelling finding in this study is that low-income families likely turn first to unemployment insurance and then to TANF assistance.     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

The Economic Adjustment Program for Portugal: assessing welfare impact in a heterogeneous-agent framework

The sovereign debt crisis, triggered by the 2007-08 global financial crisis, has affected several European Union (EU) countries, leading to unprecedented financial assistance programs. In May 2011, the Portuguese Government set an agreement with the Troika (a supranational institution composed by the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)), through which, in exchange for external help, the Portuguese authorities committed to an Economic Adjustment Program (EAP). In order to assess the impacts of the EAP on welfare and, in particular, on inequality, this paper simulates the debt consolidation strategy proposed by the Troika using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The model enables to explore the impacts of the fiscal adjustment on the endogenous cross-section distribution of income, wealth and welfare. Our results predict a positive net welfare gain, despite the existence of significant transition costs in terms of output losses and inequality, especially during the first years of implementation. Overall, the net positive welfare gains are biased towards the poorer, which means that the consolidation plan will be, in the end, equality-enhancing. These results reflect the instruments involved in the consolidation strategy: productive and unproductive expenditure cuts combined with a slight increase in social transfers. Furthermore, the simulation predicts a positive impact on the Portuguese net foreign asset (NFA) position. Assuming this prediction is correct, this strongly supports the motivation for the adoption of the Economic Adjustment Program which considers the large external indebtedness of Portugal as a central issue in the economic diagnosis.     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

货币均衡对产业结构及国际收支平衡的影响

货币政策对经济发展起着重要影响,特别是完全脱离金本位的纸币体制下,货币不仅影响到通货膨胀,还会影响到汇率进而影响国际贸易。从货币均衡角度,分析经济危机发生后,利用货币政策刺激经济发展,对一国产业结构和国际贸易的影响,来说明货币均衡的重要性,分析货币政策的积极作用和负面影响,为宏观经济调节提供理论依据。     

A Model of Balance‐of‐Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs. Fiscal Approaches

This paper develops a model for balance‐of‐payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis.     

我国政府间转移支付制度均等化 效应测度与评价——基于横向财力失衡的多维视角分析

本文以我国横向财力失衡的财政调节效应为视角,采用省级财政收支数据、中央财政转移支付以及我国各区域人口数据,运用泰尔熵指数模型对我国现行政府间转移支付制度的财力均等化效应进行了多维测度与分析。结果表明,中央转移支付制度对横向财力失衡的调节方向和调节力度呈现多重性、复杂性特征。最后,本文围绕我国政府间转移支付制度均等化定位提升、策略调整以及制度创新等多层面提出了对策建议。     

Marketization and Poland's transfer payments

This study will examine the effects of Poland's transition on structural and policy changes in the primary categories of central government transfer payments, family assistance programs, pensions, and unemployment benefits. In this paper, changes in the structure of transfer payments for 1990 through 1997 will be quantified, and the relevant programs are described. This paper also examines the regulatory and policy framework of transfer payments. The welfare effects of transfer payment changes on Poland's different societal groups will be calculated, and certain policy recommendations are presented.     

中国经济增长的可持续性与制度变革

本文旨在评价改革 2 0年来经济增长的整体状况 ,从生产要素、制度变革、结构变动、外部环境等方面分析高速增长的原因 ,判断这些因素的剩余潜力 ,研究制约经济增长的内外部因素 ,从而对中国在今后 2 0年中保持经济持续增长的可能性作出判断。本文认为 ,资本形成加速对过去的高速增长作出了很大贡献 ,但更重要的贡献来自制度变革引起的资源重新配置。目前中国经济正面临增长方式转换的挑战 ,今后 2 0年经济可能保持平均 6 4%的中高速度增长 ,但这取决于若干深层体制改革和政策调整。