Domestic Sources of Twenty-first-century Geopolitics: Domestic Politics and Sovereign Wealth Funds in GCC Economies

The present article brings domestic politics into an analysis on sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that are relevant for the study of contemporary geopolitics. What are the domestic drivers behind SWF creation, and how does a country’s domestic political environment affect the creation of these funds? Using a comparative historical case study on sovereign funds in Gulf Cooperation Countries, this article investigates the effects of domestic state–society structures on decisions about SWF creation and their evolving structure. Thereby, this article adds to an emerging stream of literature that looks at the drivers and implications of SWFs. One of the key findings of this analysis is that there are systematic links between the sovereign fund types and domestic structures; these structures include and exclude socio-economic actors that influence policy-making decisions.     

Sovereign Dilemmas: Saudi Arabia and Sovereign Wealth Funds

While the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) can claim over half of SWF assets globally, the largest and most strategically important state, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has heretofore lacked a dedicated investment fund. This paper challenges some of the conventional wisdom on SWFs in explaining the Saudi government's reticence to launch an SWF and its recent decision to cautiously move in this direction. First, while Washington policy makers raise fears of enemies using SWFs against US interests, Saudi foreign assets have been used in support of its continuing alliance with the United States. And second, while critics decry the lack of transparency of SWFs, the Saudi launch of a new SWF could represent a move toward greater transparency, by working to separate “private” sovereign funds from “public” ones. Indeed, the launch of a SWF fits into a broad pattern of reforms rationalising Saudi governing institutions as King Abdullah has moved to control spendthrift princes, to streamline decision making, and to attract more foreign investment.     

中国主权财富基金的投资绩效研究

本文利用事件研究法（event study）实证研究了中国主权财富基金的投资绩效。在整理中国四家主权财富基金2007年12月-2010年6月进行的28项国内外上市公司投资数据的基础上,通过计算平均异常收益（AAR）和累积平均异常收益（CAAR）等指标,对目标公司在投资宣布日附近的股价异常波动情况进行估计和检验。同时,利用长期效应度量方法来度量中国主权财富基金投资行为的长期绩效。     

Country factors and the investment decision-making process of sovereign wealth funds

In this paper, we examine the complex decision-making processes that lead to sovereign wealth funds' (SWFs’) choice of investment location. Using a two-tiered dynamic Tobit panel model, we find that country-level factors do not have the same impacts on the investment decision and the amount to invest and that SWFs tend to invest more frequently and at higher amounts in countries in which they have already invested. More specifically, we find that SWFs prefer to invest in countries with higher political stability, whereas they are more prone to invest large amounts in countries that are less democratic and more financially open. Our results also lend support to the idea that SWFs are prudent in their choice of a target country with regard to their investment decision but behave as more opportunistic investors with regard to the amounts to be invested.     

Sovereign-Wealth Funds: the institutional dimension

In the recent past, the operations of the capital-rich Sovereign-Wealth Funds (SWFs) went on increasing in the global capital markets. As the global economic crisis that started in 2007 deepened, SWF operations dramatically spurted, leading to further progressive increase in their significance for the global capital markets. For all appearances they are going to be important financial players in the foreseeable future. This article focuses on the basic concept of SWFs, their structure and operations. It attempts to analyze and elucidate on them. Notwithstanding the fact that SWFs are an instrument of enhancing liquidity and financial resource allocation in the international capital market, they managed to become a source of controversies. Consequently they became a source of escalation in financial protectionism in several advanced industrial economies, in particular the USA. The article concludes that this was unwarranted. Recently SWFs have attempted to device an array of best practices to improve the transparency of their global financial operations. These measures are expected to enhance the acceptance of SWFs as well as global recognition of their operations. They would also help in dispelling the negative image that SWFs have held in several advanced industrial economies.

Sovereign Wealth Funds and National Security: The Dog that Will Refuse to Bark

Concerns have been raised that Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) might be used by governments to advance international political goals, raising red flags about their possible economic and national security consequences. These concerns are overstated. Warnings about national security threats related to foreign investment have been sounded repeatedly throughout history, but they have invariably been false alarms. Although there are novel attributes about SWFs in contemporary world politics, establishing their national security consequences is much more difficult than it might seem. And in those instances where theoretical connections between SWFs and “high politics” can be established, on closer inspection the SWFs appear to be intervening variables – manifestations of other pathologies – rather than the root cause of the postulated problem. The potential geopolitical problems caused by SWFs are the result of shifts in wealth in the international system, and not by the establishment or functioning of wealth funds.     

近代外国在华投资:规模与效应分析

传统观点认为,近代外国在华投资不仅盈利极其丰厚,而且还严重抑制了中国本土企业的成长与发展,成为阻碍近代中国经济发展的一个重要因素。本文通过对近代外国在华投资的规模、利润率以及外国投资与日俱增背景下中资企业成长、发展情况的分析,发现传统观点是值得商榷的,文章认为近代外国在华直接投资的正效应是非常明显的,不仅没有成为中资企业发展的阻碍,而且还刺激并促进了中资企业的成长与发展。当然,至于外国间接投资的效应则需要进行具体分析。     

Political regimes and foreign intervention

We present a theory of endogenous political regimes that emphasizes foreign direct investment as a motive for foreign governments to either induce regime transitions or promote regime consolidations. We characterize different forms of foreign intervention and identify the conditions under which they occur. We highlight new channels through which economic factors affect political regime choices. Foreign intervention is most likely to originate from countries where the government has a substantial pro-investor bias and to be directed at destinations where FDI is highly profitable and where income inequality is high. Foreign-sponsored coups d'état are more likely to be directed at democratic governments of poor countries. In destinations where FDI is highly profitable but the domestic elite is weak, foreign intervention tends to be aimed at stabilizing dictatorships. We relate the analysis to evidence on foreign intervention from around the world.     

China and India's insertion in the intellectual property rights regime: sustaining or disrupting the rules?

This paper looks at the insertion of China and India in the contested and highly legalised regime of intellectual property rights (IP). In doing so it pays particular attention at two dimensions, the internal adoption of this regime and external endorsement/contestation of international IP norms. Much has been written about whether emerging countries will challenge or support the maintenance of an open rules-based multilateral trade system. In this context, the differentiated integration of these two countries in the IP regime is notable. Domestically, China despite much criticism for widespread IP infringement has followed a maximalist interpretation of TRIPS. India, on the contrary has followed other emerging countries in pursuing a more critical, minimalist understanding. These positions have also been visible at the multilateral arena. This empirical finding runs contrary to the assumption that defiance results from market power. The divergence is the more surprising given a recent explosion of patent filings in both countries. From a political economy perspective, this should translate into support for stricter rules under TRIPS. In explanaining the two countries’ divertent insertion this paper looks beyond economic (market) power and domestic interests and underlines the role of ideational legacies, domestic interests and regulatory capacity. The paper thus stresses the need to look deep into domestic politics and ideational cleavages, as well as at their evolution over time, in order to better understand the international behaviour of emerging countries.     

Why is there controversy regarding China’s staple grain food market integration? Evidence and implication from price convergent club analysis

There remains ongoing controversy regarding the degree to which Chinese food markets are integrated. Some economists conclude that China’s grain economy is well integrated, while others argue that China’s gradual reforms have led to fragmented domestic markets while others conclude that previous studies have produced mixed results. To reconcile the debate, this article models and analyses the behaviour of China’s food grain retail markets by testing for the existence of the convergent price clustering clubs using appropriate econometric methods and price data over 1997–2010. The article finds evidence as to why the controversy remains by identifying a number of small divergent price clustering clubs where it is hard to conclude that China’s food grain markets are fully integrated. However, given that large convergent clustering clubs were also identified, it can be concluded that the degree to which Chinese grain food retail markets are integrated is ‘high’. This finding is important for those who plan to investigate the economic behaviour of grain production under the assumption of a pure, fully integrated, food market economy in China.     

The cohort effect of political change on language speaking: Evidence from Hong Kong

It has been proven that language is a symbol of culture and politics. This study investigates the cohort effect of Hong Kong's handover on the language spoken in adulthood based on the 2006 and 2011 Hong Kong population censuses. We find that Mandarin is more likely to be used by Hong Kong natives who were exposed to the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 during their school-age years, especially the generation that were exposed during their primary-school years. This cohort insisted on speaking Mandarin, even when the political environment changed from 2006 to 2011. Our evidence reveals that the political change that occurs during one's school-age years has a long-term impact on an individual's behaviour in adulthood. Further discussion indicates that exposure to political change such as regime transfer during school-age years impacts an individual's national identity.     

Domestic institutions and the ratification of international agreements in a panel of democracies

A recent literature explores how domestic institutions affect politicians’ incentives to enter into international agreements (IAs). We contribute to this field by systematically testing the impact of a broad set of domestic institutional design features. This allows us to compare new and established political economy explanations of IA entry. For this purpose, 99 democracies are analyzed over the period 1975–2010. We find that domestic institutions determine countries’ disposition to enter into IAs, as predicted by political economic theory. For example, democracies with majoritarian electoral institutions are less likely to conclude IAs than other democracies. Countries also conclude more IAs when their democratic institutions are long-lived and they lack an independent judiciary. However, programmatic parties and the number of domestic veto players are not associated with IA-making. The key take-away of this study is that specific domestic institutions matter for how frequently states make formal deals with each other.     

INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE AND COMPETITION: THE CASE OF JAPANESE MANUFACTURING

Abstract.  The paper analyses the competitive process and performance behaviour of Japanese manufacturing between 1985 and 1997. Technological changes, international competition and reducing barriers in domestic and international markets are playing a significant role to speed up the performance behaviour in Japanese manufacturing. Scale economies, product differentiation and openness of the economy are used in explaining profit behaviour of manufacturing firms. Findings are compared with existing studies from Japan as well as from other developed countries such as Australia and the USA.     

长波理论的数理解析及其对新发展格局的启示——纪念我国著名马克思主义经济学家高峰先生

高峰先生是我国马克思主义政治经济学与现代资本主义研究领域的著名专家.先生视野开阔、涉猎广泛,在其众多的研究著述之中对长波理论的考察格外引人瞩目.本文系统地回顾了先生针对资本主义经济长波,从资本积累理论切入,所提出的"技术—制度—市场"三元分析框架.在此基础上,尝试构建一个包含着异质性资本的单一部门模型,以说明技术变迁和...     

UNIFIED CHINA AND DIVIDED EUROPE

This article studies the causes and consequences of political centralization and fragmentation in China and Europe. We argue that a severe and unidirectional threat of external invasion fostered centralization in China, whereas Europe faced a wider variety of smaller external threats and remained fragmented. Political centralization in China led to lower taxation and hence faster population growth during peacetime compared to Europe. But it also meant that China was more vulnerable to occasional negative population shocks. Our results are consistent with historical evidence of warfare, capital city location, tax levels, and population growth in both China and Europe.     

收入分配、需求体制与经济增长*——基于“马克思-凯恩斯-卡莱茨基”理论的经验研究

本文运用1978—2015年省级面板数据分析了我国劳动收入份额变动对消费、投资、净出口以及总需求的长期效应及其与经济增长的关系，对“马克思-凯恩斯-卡莱茨基”（MKK）理论进行检验。结果显示：（1）我国的国内需求体制为工资拉动型，但是包括净出口在内的总需求体制为利润拉动型。（2）劳动收入份额上升对消费具有明显的促进作用，对净出口有明显的抑制作用，但对投资的影响不显著。其原因在于我国政府和国企主导的“逆周期”投资和非利润导向型投资。（3）随着国企改革的深化、民间投资占比提升，我国的国内需求体制有向利润拉动型转型的趋势。相比中部和西部地区，东部沿海地区的需求体制更偏向于利润拉动型。     

Democratic Accountability,Regulation and Inward Investment Policy

We examine the effect of domestic political accountability on leaders' strategies for attracting foreign direct investment to less developed countries. We consider two policy areas: the tax burden imposed on firms and the regulatory environment in which they operate. We find that democratic governments are more likely to offer relatively lower tax rates to foreign investors, whereas autocratic governments are more likely to offer relatively lax regulation. This result is driven by the greater elasticity of the political survival function to environmental and labor regulations in more democratic countries. Analyses of firm‐level survey data confirm our main theoretical conclusions.     

Labour Unrest in the Global Political Economy: The Case of China's 2010 Strike Wave

This paper argues that whilst the relationship between US consumerism and China's low-wage production has underpinned China's economic growth in recent years, policy-makers are increasingly cognisant of heightened internal and external vulnerabilities, namely increased domestic social unrest and downturns in US demand. Despite calls for increased domestic consumption, opinion remains divided as to the extent to which policy-makers will make a genuine departure with China's export-orientation. This paper argues, however, that the direction of the Chinese political economy will depend much on the transformative role of workers’ struggles. Placed in a broader north-east Asian comparative perspective, we argue that China appears to be on the verge of a transition towards a limited labour supply, as evidenced in increasing labour shortages, rising wages costs and new forms of labour unrest. An in-depth case study of the strike at Nanhai Honda in 2010 suggests that China's migrant workers are beginning to develop a class consciousness and move from reactive to proactive demands. Furthermore, the response of the Chinese state and employers has shifted from one of outright repression to one of accommodation. These trends are likely to be highly significant in terms of China's uneven integration into the global economy.     

论主权财富基金的理论逻辑

主权财富基金是国际金融市场一类崭新的有影响力的机构投资者。全球的主权财富基金的现有规模大概在3万亿美元左右。其规模还将继续不断增长。从主权财富基金兴起的原因看,首先,国际货币体系的变革是主权财富基金兴起的根本原因;其次,能源价格上涨是导致主权财富基金规模扩张的重要原因;最后,经济全球化为主权财富基金的运作提供了良好的环境。根据"国家经济人模型",国家在经济发展的初期和高增长阶段,外汇储备迅速增加,国家逐步将盈余财富用于投资。然而,随着生产要素的消耗,国家积累的财富逐步达到顶峰。当国家经济进入富裕导向阶段或稳定低增长阶段时,国家需要消费积累的财富,投资也倾向于无风险资产。目前看,各国设立主权财富基金主要有五方面目标:(1)跨期平滑国家收入;(2)协助中央银行分流外汇储备;(3)跨代平滑国家财富;(4)预防国家社会经济危机;(5)支持国家发展战略。     

Economic liberalization in China and India: Issues and an analytical framework

A simple analytical framework is proposed for assessing the credibility and prospects for success of economic liberalization policies of China and India. It is argued that liberalization of external transactions is likely to yield only limited benefits unless it is accompanied by elimination of controls on domestic transactions. Further, in China economic liberalization is likely to generate demands for political liberalization which in turn may result in a retreat from economic reforms. In India, on the other hand, interest groups enjoying “rents” from economic controls may try to prevent their elimination.