企业并购成败判定标准的经济学探析

无论是国外还是国内,企业并购的成功率都不是很高,那么为什么世界范围内的企业并购一浪高过一浪呢?文章根据西方管理学派的协同效应理论和马克思的社会平均利润率理论,得出应以“并购能否带来更多的社会财富”、“并购后企业经营业绩是否低于同行业平均水平”作为判定并购成败的基本标准。     

Benford's Law as an Indicator of Fraud in Economics

Abstract. Contrary to intuition, first digits of randomly selected data are not uniformly distributed but follow a logarithmically declining pattern, known as Benford's law. This law is increasingly used as a 'doping check' for detecting fraudulent data in business and administration. Benford's law also applies to regression coefficients and standard errors in empirical economics. This article reviews Benford's law and examines its potential as an indicator of fraud in economic research. Evidence from a sample of recently published articles shows that a surprisingly large proportion of first digits, but not of second digits, contradicts Benford's law.     

工业经济增长与主要经济指标作用机制的量化分析 ——经济指标系统自组织模型研究

本文运用自组织数据挖掘方法,在经济指标系统中对工业经济增长的动态变化规律及其影响因素进行了量化分析,从而发现在经济指标系统中,工资总额是工业经济增长最重要的影响因素;减少农林牧总产值,对工业经济增长有较大促进作用;居民人均消费水平为经济指标系统的外生变量。增大工资总额,减少农林牧总产值,提升居民消费水平是提升工业经济增长的有效方式。     

刺激政策继续显效库存回补助推增长——2010年第一季度中国经济形势预测分析

2009年,在国家一揽子刺激政策的作用下＇我国经济成功抵御了国际金融危机的严重冲击,经济运行表现超出预期。与此同时,房地产、股票等资产价格上涨也超出预期。2010年一季度,在国际经济环境趋于好转,国内刺激政策效应继续显现、工业品库存回补以及低基数等因素影响下,我国经济将呈现出继续回升趋势,初步预计,一季度GDP增长11．5％左右,CP1上涨2．5％左右,经济运行开始从危机冲击后的应激运行状态向正常运行状态过渡。     

Crude Oil Futures as an Indicator of Market Changes: A Graphical Analysis

This study investigates the changing relationship between price and volume traded of short- and long-maturity NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts and major changes in the physical crude oil market during the last decade. Monthly series for the #1-month to 84-month out maturity contracts are generated from daily price and volume data for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts for the period from January 2000 to the middle of 2009. 3-D graphical analysis of the futures prices, contract volumes, maturity dates, and time is used to demonstrate the changing trading volume pattern and evolution of the shape of futures price term structure across various contract maturities in different market regimes. The study observes the impacts of both May 2004, when excess production capacity reached nearly zero, and September 2006, when electronic trading was implemented on the NYMEX WTI futures markets. This analysis will be used to determine if futures contract information can provide an early indication of market regime shifts and improve short-run crude oil spot price forecast models.     

Reversing Metropolitan Concentration as an Economic Issue

The author examines the forces and problems underlying one of the central phenomena of our times. For the first time in almost one hundred years, rural counties in almost all parts of the U.S. are experiencing net in-migration. And for the first time ever, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas are experiencing in significant numbers actual population losses. Leven argues that this “metropolitan turnaround” is an outcome primarily of technologically-based changes in the economies of scale and agglomeration, with some reenforcement from prevailing social values. Understanding the economic organization and functions of the “emerging metropolis” are essential to the development of governmental policy.     

Interactive Video as an Economic Teaching Supplement

The authors report on the use of six video cassette tapes produced for managerial economics students and used by them as an interactive supplement to typical learning activities. Although performance was not improved, the attitude of the students using the instruction was favorable—in contrast to the negative reactions frequently reported when television is used as a substitute for usual instruction.     

中国经济市场化进程及其测度指标设置研究

中国经济市场化历经三个阶段：体制外市场化阶段，体制内局部市场化阶段与全面展开与纵深推进阶段。目前改革的重点转移到市场经济基本制度的构成、运作以及市场主体相互间的博弈行为与过程上。在此过程中，深入理解市场化的内涵、设置科学的市场化测度指标、改善市场化测度方法应当引起重视。     

农民工对江西经济增长的贡献与成果分享测度

农民工进城为工业化、城市化、现代化建设作出了卓越贡献,丰富了城镇的劳动力资源,为城镇产业的技术升级和第二、三产业的发展创造了有利条件,有力推动了经济结构的调整和城乡经济的发展.通过测算发现,1993--2006年期间农民工对江西经济增长的贡献率平均为20.9%.与农民工的贡献相比,农民工的成果分享却是不公平的.如果工业化之初农民工作出必要的牺牲是无法避免的,那么改革开放30年后他们就理应分享经济发展的成果.农民工将在江西经济发展中发挥越来越重要的作用,各级政府应在促使农民工定居城市和推动城市化进程中发挥强有力的支撑作用,有条件、有步骤地推进农民工市民化工程.     

Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.     

Culture and Economic Performance: Policy as an Intervening Variable

The role of cultural factors in determining relative rates of economic growth is shown to involve the interrelationship between cultural factors and governmental ability to institute growth-oriented policies in addition to the direct effects of cultural values on recognized economic forces. The role of culture can exert, therefore, a substantial indirect component and that component depends directly upon the form of government and political conditions in the different countries.     

中国行业体制改革的成败新论：新自由主义的视角

20世纪70年代初随着新自由主义的兴起,经济管理行业化成为席卷全球的浪潮,无论是资本主义国家,还是社会主义国家都纷纷走上行业体制改革之路,英美模式更是被封为典范。但是苏东、拉美的教训说明盲目的＂西学东渐＂并不能实现行业改革的善治,日本在20世纪80-90年代之间行业管理成效的巨大反差也证明＂中学为体,西学为用＂的模式也不具有普适性。西方新自由主义学者和政治家转而以治理作为新的理论工具,并以此评判中国的行业体制改革的成败,国内也普遍认为实现善治的关键是形成多元共治的局面,而忽视了治理理论的新自由主义实质,所以他们无法解释中国经济发展和行业改革之间的巨大反差,由此可知中国的行业体制改革已经成为一种新的范式。     

Consumers' Surplus As an Exact and Superlative Cardinal Welfare Indicator

This article shows that the Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure is an exact measure of Allais' disposable surplus if the consumer's utility function is of the translation-homothetic generalized quadratic form. The Bennet-Bowley consumer surplus measure, therefore, is a superlative cardinal welfare measure for the entire class of translation homothetic preferences. Because the exactness results in this article apply for cardinal welfare measures, they can be meaningfully aggregated across consumers to make aggregate welfare comparisons.     

市场失灵与强制披露制度的经济分析

有关证券法的学术争论就像历史学上有关第一次世界大战起源的论战一样,都明显地有着类似的阶段性：先是传统主义学者把历史事件看成是一部正义与邪恶的道德戏剧,然后由修正主义者来揭穿一切,指出貌似的好人才是真正的坏蛋,最后由工匠式的学者纠正修正主义者言过其实的言论,做出一种比较折衷、客观的论断。……     

金融中心及其辐射域研究——以环渤海经济圈为例

金融中心是金融资源和金融机构大量集聚的地方,能够有效促进周边地区的经济发展。环渤海经济圈是次于"长三角"和"珠三角"的第三个经济圈,约60%的金融资源集中于北京、天津、青岛、济南、大连和沈阳6个城市。实证分析了28个城市的金融竞争力,发现只有北京和天津可作为金融中心对周边地区产生金融辐射,进一步利用威尔逊模型计算北京和天津的金融辐射半径并绘制辐射域,发现其金融辐射域基本上覆盖了整个环渤海经济圈。     

国内外关于影响并购成败的因素分析

国外有关研究表明，公司并购失败的比例比较高。因此，并购失败的原因也就成为众多学者关注的焦点。并形成一系列的并购理论解释。本文系统介绍了国外关于并购失败因素分析的八个学派，并结合国内研究就影响我国并购失败的因素进行了分析。