Informational lobbying and political contributions

Interest groups can potentially influence political decision-makers by offering contributions and by providing relevant information that sways the decision in the group's favor. What mix of these two instruments should an interest group choose, and how does the use of one instrument affect the effectiveness of the other? In this paper we identify an information externality that raises the cost of offering contributions and show that this indirect search cost reduces the group's incentive to gather information when contributions are allowed. Furthermore, we analyze how competition among lobby groups as providers of information and contributions affect the choice and effectiveness of the instruments. We show that the information externality rewards the group that can abstain from information search and focus its influence on contributions.     

The political agenda effect and state centralization

We provide a potential explanation, based on the “political agenda effect”, for the absence of, and unwillingness to create, centralized power in the hands of a national state. State centralization induces citizens of different backgrounds, interests, regions or ethnicities to coordinate their demands in the direction of more general-interest public goods, and away from parochial transfers. This political agenda effect raises the effectiveness of citizen demands and induces them to increase their investments in conflict capacity. In the absence of state centralization, citizens do not necessarily band together because of another force, the escalation effect, which refers to the fact that elites from different regions will join forces in response to the citizens doing so. Such escalation might hurt the citizen groups that have already solved their collective action problem (though it will benefit others). Anticipating the interplay of the political agenda and escalation effects, under some parameter configurations, political elites strategically opt for a non-centralized state. We show how the model generates non-monotonic comparative statics in response to the increase in the value or effectiveness of public goods (so that centralized states and public good provision may be absent precisely when they are more beneficial for society). We also suggest how the formation of a social democratic party may sometimes induce state centralization (by removing the commitment value of a non-centralized state), and how elites may sometimes prefer partial state centralization.     

Narcissism,political tenure,financial indicators and the effectiveness of environmental regulation

This article explores the factors that determine the effectiveness of environmental regulation in the United States and Australia. Unlike prior literature, in which lagging performance measures (such as carbon emissions) are used, we use financial data to develop effectiveness scores and identify the determinants of effectiveness, including narcissistic behaviour, tenure of political leaders and financial indicators. Consistent with the emerging literature on environmental finance, we find that abnormal returns are associated with environmental regulation and that effectiveness is adversely affected when narcissistic leaders are in power. Our results remain robust when we control for various event windows and models.     

Environmental regulation,political incentives,and mortality in China

China enacted an environmental regulation policy in 1998, the “Two Control Zones” (TCZ) policy, to control air pollution in selected cities. Using a panel dataset of 208 prefectural cities for 2001–2012, this study applies a difference-in-differences approach to examine the policy's impact on mortality and identify the role of political incentives. We find the following aspects. (1) The policy significantly reduces mortality in TCZ cities relative to that in non-TCZ cities by 0.305‰ in the period when the policy is strictly enforced. On average, it translates into a 5.2% reduction in mortality. (2) The effect is particularly salient in the years when local officers are evaluated for political promotion and/or when they face stronger pressure for promotion, thus suggesting that political incentives play an important role in determining the effectiveness of environmental regulation policy. (3) The policy reduces industrial emissions of sulfur dioxide instantaneously, while the accumulation of which eventually leads to a lagged reduction in mortality in the cities. (4) The policy yields health benefits worth 1.1 trillion yuan for the treatment period in our sample (i.e., 2006–2012), which accounts for approximately 5.1% of GDP in 2006.     

Lobbying under political uncertainty

This paper considers a model of lobbying described as a common agency game; it departs from the current literature by assuming that the special interest groups are not a priori organized or unorganized and that the type of the politician is not common knowledge. We characterize equilibria when the choice set of the politician consists of two policies; we discuss the conditions leading to efficiency and the characteristics of the groups explaining their relative success in the process of influence. We also offer some results for the general case, including disjoint necessary and sufficient conditions for the equilibria to be efficient.     

Inclusive healthcare and the political settlement in Cambodia

Over the past 15 years Cambodia has made significant strides in expanding effective access to free healthcare for the poor, thanks largely to ‘Health Equity Funds’ (HEFs), a multi-stakeholder health-financing mechanism. HEF operators have helped expand access, incentivise health staff, and lobby on behalf of poor patients. However, despite their successes, they have been unable convincingly to address some of the deeper-seated problems of the Cambodian health system, such as under-resourced facilities, underpaid, poorly qualified staff and a burgeoning private sector. This paper explains this state of affairs as a product of Cambodia's ‘political settlement’, in which relatively successful multi-stakeholder initiatives exist as ‘islands of effectiveness’ in a sea of rent-seeking and patronage. While such islands may currently be the best solution available for the poor, the deeper problems are unlikely to be solved without a shift in the political settlement itself.     

The political economy of regionalism

We examine the incentives of regions to unite and separate. Separation allows for greater influence over the nature of political decision making while unification allows regions to exploit economies of scale in the provision of government. Our paper explores the influence of size, location and the diversity within regions in shaping this trade-off. We then examine the way in which alternative political institutions aggregate regional preferences and thereby define the number of countries.     

Diminished-dimensional political economy

Economists base policy advice on models of responses by a variety of economic entities to policy adoptions. There is compelling evidence that these entities do not optimize as mainstream economics assumes. Rather, they limit decision-making to solving problems of much smaller dimensionality. We consider how political economy goes awry when ignoring diminished dimensionality, and some research avenues opened up by this realization.     

Manipulation through political endorsements

We study elections with three candidates under plurality voting. A candidate is a Condorcet loser if the majority of the voters place that candidate at the bottom of their preference rankings. We first show that a Condorcet loser might win the election in a three-way race. Next we introduce to the model an endorser who has private information about the true probability distribution of the preferences of the voters. Observable endorsements facilitate coordination among voters who may otherwise split their votes and lead to the victory of the Condorcet loser. When the endorser has an ideological bias towards one of the candidates, the coordination impact of endorsements remains unaltered, moreover the endorser successfully manipulates the outcome of the election in favor of his bias, even if his ideological bias is known by the voters. The results are true for any endorsement cost and any magnitude of bias as long as the electorate is large enough.     

政治理论教学中游戏式教学探析

在新世纪,政治理论教学作为院校思想政治建设的重要环节,缺乏吸引力,教学效果不佳。游戏式教学法能够营造出良好的教学氛围,激发学生强烈的求知欲和兴趣。在政治理论课上采用游戏教学法,可以提高政治理论课的教学质量,增强教学效果。     

Endogenous expropriation and political competition

We develop a game-theoretical model in which the politicians can be influenced by means of campaign contributions of special interest groups. If there is no legally binding contract, politicians have a proclivity to divert some contributions for private use. In doing so, they maximize their own utility which depends on expected election-winning premium and amount of funds misappropriated. We study the utility maximizing fraction of expropriation emerging from the equilibrium policy platform and the associated contribution level. We then compare results under alternative scenarios, namely, one single lobby group versus multiple lobby groups and one-sided lobbying versus two-sided lobbying.     

Relative age effects in political selection

We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.     

Segregation and Black political efficacy

The impact of segregation on Black political efficacy is theoretically ambiguous. On one hand, increased contact among Blacks in more segregated areas may mean that Blacks are better able to coordinate political behavior. On the other hand, lesser contact with non-Blacks may mean that Blacks have less political influence over voters of other races. As for non-Blacks, inter-group conflict theory suggests that greater contact yields greater conflict between the groups while inter-group contact theory suggests exactly the reverse. We investigate this question empirically. We find that exogenous increases in segregation lead to decreases in Black civic efficacy, as measured by an ability to elect Representatives who vote liberally and more specifically in favor of legislation that is favored by Blacks. This tendency for Representatives from more segregated MSAs to vote more conservatively arises in spite of the fact that Blacks in more segregated areas hold more liberal political views than do Blacks in less segregated locales. We find evidence that this decrease in efficacy is driven by more conservative attitudes amongst non-Blacks in more segregated areas.     

The political reception of innovations

Why do some societies embrace innovative technologies, policies, and ideas, while others are slow to adopt, and some even resist, them? Incumbent producers are most likely to be affected by certain kinds of innovations; they also wield a disproportionate influence in the design of institutions and policies that encourage or limit their adoption. We show formally that the elite has four cardinal policy options: to appropriate the innovation for itself; to encourage its adoption; to tax, regulate, or limit the innovation; or to block it. We show that six features of an innovation determine how it is received: (i) whether it is easy to replicate; (ii) whether it complements or competes with the elite's sources of income; (iii) whether its impact is broad or narrow; (iv) whether it is location-dependent, and (v) concealable; (vi) whether it requires large fixed costs. While other works have occasionally considered one of these factors, we show where each feature comes from, and we assess them systematically and together. We provide illustrative evidence of the relevance and generality of the model to understand the fate of a variety of innovations.     

Civic duty and political advertising

Should voter awareness policies and get-out-the-vote movements be promoted? This paper addresses the question using a model of political advertising that incorporates both the mobilization and the persuasion aspects of advertising. We characterize the equilibrium and conduct comparative statics analysis allowing evaluation of the effect of voter awareness policies or the activity of get-out-the-vote movements on political advertising and the information aggregated by the electoral outcome. We find that such policies or movements may lead to either an increase or a decrease in political advertising as well as in the probability that the candidate preferred by a majority of (all informed) citizens is elected.     

The golden hello and political transitions

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson’s [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find that the anticipation of receiving new loan programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.     

An axiomatic theory of political representation

We discuss the theory of gerrymandering-proof voting rules. Our approach is axiomatic. We show that, for votes over a binary set of alternatives, any rule that is unanimous, anonymous, and gerrymandering-proof must decide a social outcome as a function of the proportions of agents voting for each alternative, and must either be independent of this proportion, or be in one-to-one correspondence with the proportions. In an extended model in which the outcome of a vote at the district level can be a composition of a governing body (with two possible parties), we discuss the quasi-proportional rules (characterized by unanimity, anonymity, gerrymandering-proofness, strict monotonicity, and continuity). We show that we can always (pointwise) approximate a single-member district quota rule with a quasi-proportional rule. We also discuss a more general environment, where there may be more than two parties.     

Inefficient predation and political transitions

This paper presents a theory of endogenous economic institutions in non-democracies, where political accountability is enforced through the threat of revolution. We consider a dynamic game between an elite ruling class and a disenfranchised working class, in which workers have imperfect information about the economy's productive possibilities. We characterize the conditions under which (i) the elite implement an inefficient rent-creating economic institution at the risk of provoking a revolution based on institutional grievances, (ii) information shocks can catalyze revolutionary movements that may be contagious among similar countries, and (iii) democratic transitions can be consolidated following revolutionary liberalizations.     

A theory of political cycles

We study how the proximity of elections affects policy choices in a model in which policymakers want to improve their reputation to increase their reelection chances. Policymakers' equilibrium decisions depend on both their reputation and the proximity of the next election. Typically, incentives to influence election results are stronger closer to the election (for a given reputation level), as argued in the political cycles literature, and these political cycles are less important when the policymaker's reputation is better. Our analysis sheds light on other agency relationships in which part of the compensation is decided upon infrequently.     

The political economy of entry barriers

We study a political economy model of entry barriers. Each period the policymaker determines whether to impose a high barrier to entry, and the special interest groups try to influence the policymaker's decision. Entry is accompanied by creative destruction—when many new firms enter, old firms are more likely to be driven out of the market. Therefore the current incumbents (industry leaders) tend to lobby for a higher entry barrier and potential entrants (industry followers) are likely to lobby for a freer environment for entry. We analyze both static and dynamic versions of the model to examine what kind of environment supports a policy that blocks entry. In the dynamic model, the economy can exhibit various different dynamics. In particular, multiple steady states may arise in equilibrium.