财政支出结构与经济增长

通过构建理论模型和经验模型,我们可以得出以下结论:(1)财政支出总水平与经济增长负相关,财政生产性支出与经济增长正相关。(2)财政人力资本投资比物质资本投资更能提高经济增长率。(3)用于科学研究的支出所带来的经济增长远远高于物质资本投资和人力资本投资所带来的经济增长。这些结论对政府今后调整财政支出政策,优化财政支出结构,确定财政支出重点,具有重要的政策含义。     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF VIETNAMESE PROVINCES: THE ROLE OF LOCAL PUBLIC GOVERNANCE

This study offers an insight into the public governance role in the relationship between fiscal decentralization and provincial economic growth in Vietnam. Fiscal decentralization measures are assorted. Applying a sequential (two‐stage) estimation for the panel data of 62 provinces of Vietnam over the 2006–2015 period, we find that first, fiscal decentralization is positively related to the economic growth of Vietnamese provinces. Second, the effects of public governance on economic growth vary across provinces depending on various levels of local public governance. Interestingly, the effect of fiscal decentralization is strengthened when this variable is added along with better quality of public governance. In a region of high public governance quality, fiscal decentralization exerts a positive effect on its economic growth. Our findings imply that the design of fiscal decentralization needs to be associated with local governments’ ability of public governance to improve the local economic growth.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LARGE FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND SHORT-TERM OUTPUT GROWTH UNDER ALTERNATIVE FISCAL POLICY REGIMES

A small but growing body of literature searches for evidence of non-Keynesian effects of fiscal contractions. That is, some evidence exists that large fiscal contractions stimulate short-run economic activity. This article continues that research effort by systematically examining the effects (if any) of unusual fiscal events—either non-Keynesian results within a Keynesian model or Keynesian results within a neoclassical model—on short-run economic activity. The authors examine this issue within three separate models—a St. Louis equation, a Hall-type consumption equation, and a growth accounting equation. The empirical findings do not provide strong systematic support for the view that unusually large fiscal contractions/expansions reverse the effects of normal fiscal events. Moreover, the authors find only limited evidence that trigger points are empirically important.     

相机抉择政策、经济增长与地区产出波动

本文旨在研究地方政府的相机抉择政策对经济增长和产出波动的实际影响。本文首先从预算软约束和晋升激励的角度分析这一政策的作用方式,然后用模型测度出相机抉择政策,并以2000—2013年的省际面板数据进行实证检验。研究表明,相机抉择的确刺激了地方经济增长,但却带来了明显的产出波动。不过相机抉择政策具有明显的时滞,其真实效果集中凸显在政策实施的两年后。因此,我国应加强公共财政制度的建设,使相机抉择政策在规则的框架下更为合理地使用。     

ROLE OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY

Abstract.  This paper applies the GS-PD framework of Ho (1988) to show that the so-called 'battle of ideas' between 'Keynesians', who believe in intervention, and the champions of the market, who believe in non-intervention, as popularly depicted, diverts attention from the crux of the matter. It shows how monetary and fiscal policies have to be coordinated in specific situations and why some macroeconomic problems may require responses beyond the purview of monetary and fiscal policies.     

分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长

该文在 Zhang 和 Zou(1998)与 Lin 和 Liu(2000)的框架下实证检验了中国1986?2002年财政分权与经济增长的关系,发现我国的财政分权效应存在显著的跨时差异和地区差异.我们认为,分税制改革后各级政府之间政策协调能力的加强是促进财政分权积极作用的重要原因之一.同时,体制变革的因素、转移支付的设计和政府财政支出的构成也影响了财政分权与经济增长之间的关系.     

FISCAL POLICY IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH PUBLIC CAPITAL AND POLLUTION

This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model with public capital and environmental pollution. I assume that pollution is due to aggregate production, and that it does not have a direct effect on production but only reduces household utility. I study the growth effects of fiscal policy for the model on the balanced growth path, taking transition dynamics into account. I then analyse the welfare effects of fiscal policy along the balanced growth path. Finally, I show how the fiscal parameters must be set so that the competitive economy replicates the social optimum.     

分税制改革、财政分权与中国经济增长

党的十六大强调实现全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,必须使可持续发展能力不断增强,坚持促进人与自然的和谐,坚持实行计划生育、保护环境和保护资源的基本国策。这为我们做好新时期人口和计划生育工作指明了方向,提出了要求。     

中国经济增长中土地资源的“尾效”分析

土地资源是人类赖以生存与发展的重要物质基础。根据大卫·罗默的假说,由于土地与其他自然资源的限制,实际的经济增长将呈下降趋势,即存在因土地与其他自然资源的消耗而引起的"尾效"。1978—2005年,中国经济增长中土地资源的"尾效"平均每年约为1.26个百分点。也就是说,由于土地资源的消耗,在1978—2005年期间,中国的经济增长速度平均每年降低了1.26%。按照这一数据推算下去,到2030年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的74%;到2050年,中国的年经济增长率将会因为土地资源的"尾效"而降低到目前经济增长率的57%。     

THE EBB AND FLOW OF FISCAL ACTIVISM

During the last quarter of the 20th Century, the conventionalwisdom prevailing in academic, political and financial circleswas definitely against government deficits. At the turn of thecentury, however, a substantial recourse to deficit spendingpractices in the United States reopened the debate on the usefulnessof countercyclical fiscal policies. This essay discusses themain contents of this debate, reviewing the contributions tovarious symposiums held at a number of U.S. Federal ReserveBanks. A comparison with the views on this issue prevailingin Europe is also provided.     

财政可持续性与地方政府教育努力程度*

财政可持续性是影响政府教育努力程度的重要因素。本文基于2015—2019年城市面板数据测算了地方政府的财政可持续性指标,考察了财政可持续性对地方政府教育投入水平的影响。研究发现：我国大部分地级市都处于财政可持续状态,地方政府逐年上升的财政可持续性风险将降低政府教育努力程度,这一效应在东部地区和中部地区以及经济较发达城市尤为显著。     

我国财政支出结构演进及其效率

本文在分权框架下实证描述了我国财政支出结构的过去与现在,并在此基础上,利用DEA方法对财政支出结构配置效率及其时空特征进行了研究。结果表明,在纵向配置上,由于财政支出责任的过度下移,财政支出纵向结构的相对效率呈不断下降趋势。在横向配置上,自1985年以来,我国财政支出横向结构效率基本上呈波浪式上升趋势,但上升幅度有限。在不同层级财政和不同地区之间,财政支出横向结构效率呈现出明显差异,地方财政支出结构效率的改进速度快于中央财政,经济发达地区,财政支出结构效率反而越低。但在整体趋势上,无论是中央财政还是地方财政,无论是经济发达地区还是经济欠发达地区,财政支出横向结构效率较1994年税改前都有一定幅度的改进。     

中国区域经济增长中的土地资源尾效研究

依据建立的土地资源尾效测算模型,运用面板数据分析方法,从区域维度和时间维度对我国内地31省区经济增长中的土地资源尾效进行了实证研究,并分析了土地资源尾效存在区域差异的原因。研究发现:①不同地区的土地资源尾效值整体差异较大;②不同地区的土地资源尾效值随时间变化差异较大;③人口增长率的提升、土地资源的弹性系数较高和资本的弹性系数较高是土地资源尾效存在区域差异的主要原因。     

中国财政分权、金融发展、 工业化与经济增长的省际差异

本文采用1978-2006年中国28个地区的省际面板数据建立了检验财政分权、金融发展、工业化与经济增长之间长期关系的协整模型（co integration model）,并采用完全修正的最小二乘法（FMOLS）对模型进行估计。本文把地方政府官员参与政治晋升锦标赛竞争的行为影响经济绩效的假设引入对分权化改革过程的分析,对中国改革开放以来地方政府之间的竞争何以在促成经济总量高速增长的同时又导致各地区在财政分权、金融发展、工业化和经济增长方面呈现出差异的原因进行了分析,进而得出本文的分析结论并对其政策含义进行了讨论。     

中国水土资源对经济的"增长阻尼"研究

根据Romer(2001)模型,每个国家都不可避免会受到水土资源对经济的"增长阻尼"作用,如何定量测度符合中国水土资源特点的经济"增长阻尼",对于宏观水土资源调控目标的制定具有重大战略意义。文章以Romer(2001)模型为分析基础,通过修正前提假设使其更符合中国的水土资源特点,同时,将建设用地加入到土地资源数据中,计量发现水土资源对中国经济的"增长阻尼"为1.18%,是美国的4.92倍,该数据比已有学者计量的结果要小。又通过以下事实的考察,如水土资源在国民收入中的分额正在下降、技术进步、水土资源与其他要素之间的替代弹性大于1,认为水土资源制约对中国经济增长的可能影响至多是中度的。     

TOP INCOMES AND NATIONAL SAVINGS

The relationship between income inequality and national savings is theoretically ambiguous, and past empirical studies have delivered mixed results. We revisit the question using a newly available source of data on inequality: the income share of the richest 10 percent and the richest 1 percent. Combining this with historical data on national savings rates, we are able to investigate the relationship for 11 developed countries over the period 1921–2002. We find no consistent relationship between lagged top income shares and current savings rates, and our standard errors are small enough that we are able to reject more than modest effects in either direction. We view this as suggesting that inequality at the top end of the distribution is not a major driver of national savings rates.     

POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM, FISCAL POLICY, AND GROWTH NEXUS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS FOR FIJI

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between political and civil liberty, economic freedom, and growth for Fiji. Fiji's experience of two military coups in 1987, the delay to resolve the agricultural land lease issues, and the implementation of the 1990 Constitution have been major setbacks in terms of Fiji's nondemocratic political environment and uncertain economic policies, a decline in the private investment and exports, and an exodus of skilled labor. This experience severely damaged the growth prospects whereby unstable sociopolitical institutions undermined the importance of economic freedom and civil liberties of its citizens and foreign investors. Empirical results presented here support the view that democratic values and economic freedom are significant for growth. A statistical test for the endogeneity of democracy variable rejects the null, thus the reverse causality, so democratic environment and economic freedom lead to higher economic growth.