Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effects in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model

The objective of the paper is to explore potential changes in trade induced by a liberalization scenario when taking into account persistence in trading partners. Our approach is based on the development of a gravity model that takes into account the dynamics at the extensive margin of trade as well as the persistence effect of the intensity of trade. Our empirical contribution is on the egg sector, where the persistence in trading partners is acute. Our results indicate that the use of static models underestimate imports of table eggs by more than 50% in Canada, when compared with the use of panel dynamic specification. The dynamic specification helps explain why trade liberalizations often increase trade creation between countries that had already been trading partners, while new trading partnerships remain scarce following trade liberalization. Our results also confirm the importance of sunk cost and their negative impact on the probability of export market participation for developing countries. Those results raise questions regarding the benefit of trade liberalization for developing countries, in terms of accessing new market, if they do not benefit from special treatments.     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

特惠贸易协定对果品进出口贸易的影响——基于关税削减的实证分析

构造并运用放松约束的变量系数PCS引力模型,从关税削减角度,分析双边自由贸易区建设对我国水果和坚果产品进出口贸易的影响。研究发现:双边贸易自由化给果品产业发展带来的机遇与挑战并存,关税削减对中国果品进口贸易的影响大于对出口的影响;正在考虑建设的自由贸区一旦建成并在关税上做出较大让步,会有力地促进中国的果品进出口贸易;中国与特惠贸易协定签约国之间的果品贸易中,贸易创造效应与贸易转移效应并存,非关税的贸易便利化措施是中国与部分签约国果品贸易发展的主要推动力。     

Impact of export upgrading on tax revenue in developing and high-income countries*

Empirical studies usually analyse the relationship between an economy’s trade sector and tax revenue in developing countries through the effect of trade liberalization on tax revenue. This paper takes a different angle by examining the impact of export upgrading strategies (export diversification and improvement in export quality) on non-resource tax revenue. The panel data-set covers a sample of 172 countries, including both developed and developing countries, spanning the period 1980–2010. The analysis is conducted both on the entire sample and sub-samples. The findings indicate that export product upgrading exerts a positive and significant effect on non-resource tax revenue, including for the sub-samples considered, with the exception of low-income countries for which we observe mixed results. Moreover, countries which upgrade their export products in a context of trade openness consistently experience higher non-resource tax revenue, both in the short and long term.     

State Trading Enterprises: Some Legal and Conceptual Issues

State trading may become an important issue in the current WTO negotiations on agricultural trade as witnessed by some of the recent proposals for negotiating agendas. On the premise that state trading enterprises can hinder market access in importing countries and can affect export competition, it has been proposed that state trading enterprises should be pan of the negotiations. We consider the current status of state trading enterprises in the GATT framework and summarize the list of concerns relating to the effects which they may have on agricultural trade. Drawing on some recent research, we show that state trading enterprises are likely to influence market access and export competition under trade liberalization when measured relative to a benchmark of imperfect competition.     

Exporting to new destinations and the effects of tariffs: the case of meat commodities

This study uses a random parameter probit estimation to examine the effects of tariff liberalization on the probability of establishing new trading relationships in meat commodities. Our simulation results indicate that the effects of tariff reductions decrease with distance, but increase with the level of development. The probabilities of trade increase at an increasing rate with the size of tariff reductions thus justifying calls for ambitious liberalization schemes. Canada and Mexico are the NAFTA countries that are most likely to export in response to EU tariff reductions on bovine and poultry meats, while Brazil and Argentina emerge as the MERCOSUR countries most likely to penetrate the EU bovine meat market after EU tariff reductions. Uruguay's probability to export poultry meat is most responsive to EU tariff reductions.     

Dependent development in South America: China and the soybean nexus

This article examines the expansion of the soybean complex in South America and the role of Chinese firms in expanding their presence in different sectors of the oilseed complex. The growth in trade relations between the two parties has been built on the export of primary commodities from South America and the import of Chinese manufactures—a trade pattern that reproduces core‐periphery dynamics identified by dependency theory scholars. Of particular importance in this bilateral trade is soybean, a crop that has been consolidated as the main export for several South American countries, fuelled by growing demand from China. This article explores China's role in the global political economy as a key agri‐business player and the implications for new relations of dependency by studying the strategies deployed by Chinese firms to increase their influence in the governance of the soybean nexus.     

Assessing agricultural trade policies options with the European Union: a Brazilian perspective

Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions.     

Canada's Agricultural Trade Policy: Choices and Challenges

As a small open economy, Canada has a considerable interest in the achievement of substantive trade liberalization for agriculture in a multilateral context. Despite the advantages of a multi lateral approach to international trade rules, there are clear economic benefits for small countries like Canada from pursuing unilateral trade liberalization. In the context of Canadian agricultural policy this would require a considerable adjustment to the high levels of protection afforded Canada's supply-managed sectors. The benefits of an open economy are often not reflected in public discussions or in the language of trade negotiations. Instead these tend to reflect a focus on rent-seeking by special interest groups. This misrepresents the concessions of reduced trade barriers as costs, rather than recognizing them as benefits. There is a challenge for agricultural and applied economists to spell out the benefits of an open economy more clearly. A related useful focus of research is to explore the conditions and the nature of compensation to producer groups that would encourage rapid unilateral trade liberalization.     

Economic issues in tariffication: an overview

The agricultural trade liberalization proposal known as ‘ tariffication’ aims at converting all existing non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade into bound tariffs, and to reduce these tariffs over time. This is in tune with the original philosophy of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and it calls for a dramatic overhaul of existing agricultural policies in many developed countries. The main economic issues that arise with tariffication stem from the non-equivalence of tariffs and NTBs in a number of scenarios. This paper analyzes non-equivalence arising from the existence of: imperfect competition in importing countries; price instability in importing and exporting countries; and, inefficient allocation of quantitative restrictions. It is shown that in all these cases the definition of an appropriate 'equivalent tariff to be used in tariffication is not straightforward, and that in general this equivalent tariff cannot be computed on the basis of only observed price differences between countries. Tariff-rate quotas, which are meant to be the main tool of implementation of tariffication according to the existing proposal, are analyzed in some detail. Concerning the relationship between tariffication and the other elements of the trade liberalization package, it is shown that tariffication would limit the scope of export subsidy policies. It is also shown that the existence of production and export subsidies makes observed price gaps between countries of questionable value in setting equivalent tariff levels. Finally, it is argued that the main focus of tariffication should be the conversion of NTBs to acceptable long-run (bound) tariffs rates, and considerable flexibility in this conversion process could be exercised in the transition period.     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Does multilateral trade liberalization help reduce poverty in developing countries?

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impact of multilateral trade liberalization on poverty in developing countries from a macroeconomic perspective. The empirical analysis suggests that multilateral trade liberalization is conducive to poverty reduction in developing countries. This outcome therefore suggests that greater multilateral cooperation on trade matters among countries, in particular the Members of the World Trade Organization, would allow further trade liberalization at the multilateral level to the benefit of poor people in developing countries.     

Neither State nor Market: The Influence of Farmers' Organizations on Agricultural Policies in Costa Rica

In recent decades, policies in many countries have been shaped by the implementation of economic liberalization, characterized by state withdrawal from marketing operations and control of trade. In this era of liberalization, policies regulating commodity marketing and trade were expected to disappear, but, in fact, this has hardly occurred. A comparative study is carried out of three farm sectors in Costa Rica, based on a dynamic analysis of behaviour in the context of the institutional change brought about by liberalization. The capacity of farmers' organizations to adapt and contribute to institutional change through their control over economic activity and their participation in policymaking processes is highlighted. In so doing, it is shown that, even in a liberalized era, policies regulating marketing and trade still exist and affect the functioning of agricultural markets. These policies differ according to the farm sector and can be linked directly to the influence of farmers' organizations within these sectors. It is shown that organizations play a key role in the regulation of farm sectors, and that their success depends on the institutional and organizational “thickness” to which they have contributed in each sector. Differences in historical trajectories can explain differences in the capacity of organizations to influence policymaking and to gain market share.     

后危机时代技术贸易壁垒的新趋势及对策研究

金融危机后,新技术贸易壁垒以其隐蔽性强、透明度低及合法性等特点,越来越受到发达国家的青睐。为了维护我国对外贸易的利益,本文从金融危机后技术贸易壁垒的新趋势、对我国贸易的负面影响及我国的应对策略等方面出发,对新技术贸易壁垒进行研究。     

An Analysis of Removal of Agricultural Trade Barriers between the United States and Canada with Emphasis on the Southeast

A four-region, 23-commodity small world agricultural trade liberalization model within the SWOPSIM framework is used to measure the impact of tariff removal between the United States and Canada. The tariffs are simply defined as negative import subsidy equivalents in the model and are then removed from the trade prices. The model recalculates domestic supply and demand levels in all regions, rebalancing world trade, production, consumption and prices. In summary, the impacts of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement on selected commodity groups are significant. Canadian imports of beef and veal, poultry meat, soybean oil and fresh strawberries increase. Furthermore, the results indicate larger trade flows for selected products and declines in producer and consumer prices in Canada, U.S. and Southeast regions. Since the U.S. share of Canadian agricultural imports averaged 60% in the 1980s, the impact of trade liberalization will be greater in Canada in selected commodities than in the U. S. or the southeastern region, and Canadian dependence on the U.S. market will be increasing in the future. The tariff phaseout, together with a reduction in nontariff barriers and harmonizing of domestic agricultural policies, will create more export opportunities in selected commodities for both the United States and Canada, and will create the world's largest free trade market.     

Tariff quota administration in China's grain markets: An empirical assessment

In 2016, the U.S. launched a trade dispute against China at the World Trade Organization, arguing that China has been restricting its grain imports via tariff quota administration. Despite sharp criticisms by the U.S., the extent to which the grain imports were restricted in China remains largely unknown, primarily due to that China's grain import behaviors are still under-researched. The U.S. grain export sector might actually gain little from China's grain trade liberalization in the short run, since China has become less import dependent on the U.S. through the pursuit of import diversification. In this context, this article aims to quantify impacts of the tariff quota administration on China's grain imports from its trading partners. We calculate ad valorem tariff equivalents of the tariff quota administration and then estimate import demand elasticities using a source differentiated import demand model. We find that the tariff quota administration might have reduced China's quota fill rates for the grain commodities by 10–35% during 2013–2017. In particular, the U.S. wheat exports to China were largely negatively affected. We also find that the tariff quota administration in China acts like a variable import levy—its import restrictiveness varies negatively with world prices, leading to lower import demand elasticities.     

Global Commodity Chains and African Export Agriculture

The last twenty years or so have seen a new conjuncture in international trade in tropical agricultural products. That conjuncture combines both changes in the organization of the (Northern) manufacturer and consumer segments of the global commodity chains for those products, and in marketing arrangements in their (Southern) countries of origin, associated with structural adjustment and liberalization. This introductory essay provides the context for the case studies that follow, first by introducing some of the key concepts and analytical issues in the global commodity chain (GCC) approach and other recent relevant literature such as the French 'convention' theory. It then sketches an historical framework for examining international trade in tropical agricultural products, with brief illustrations of the specific trajectories of Africa and some African countries within that framework. Finally, it shows how a number of issues are explored in the case studies presented, including how current changes might affect the future prospects of smallholder ('peasant') production of tropical export crops.     

MORE ON WELFARE GAINS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FROM LIBERALIZING WORLD FOOD TRADE

The common presumption that food-importing developing countries would be harmed by a liberalization of world food trade is questioned in this paper. Both theory and new empirical modelling evidence suggest the possibility of the opposite conclusion. Even if just advanced industrial countries were to liberalize their food trade, the present empirical analysis (using a model of world food markets) suggests that economic welfare and net foreign exchange earnings from food trade could improve for the vast majority of developing countries. The extent to which that gain would be greater if developing countries also were to liberalize their policies affecting food markets is shown as well. The analysis helps to reconcile differences between previous results using partial-equilibrium models and those derived from computable general equilibrium models.     

On Exporting by Import State Traders and Peculiar Effects of Negotiated Minimum Access Commitments

It has been alleged that exportation by import state trading enterprises (ISTEs) must involve unfair trade practices. We show that such exporting may result from a rational use of market power by a sufficiently protected price discriminating ISTE. We argue that the flawed design and implementation of the tarffication process initiated in the last GATT agreement is providing ISTEs with incentives to export. The tariffication of import quotas and other related import restrictions was dirty in the sense that it permitted the setting of prohibitively high tariffs on many commodities. More importantly, it failed to eliminate quantitative trade barriers as the previous import quotas were replaced by minimum access commitments (MACs). In this paper, we use a simple partial equilibrium framework to explore the trade and welfare consequences of trade liberalization through tariff reductions and MAC enlargements under the small country assumption when domestic production and imports are controlled by an ISTE. We show that tariff reductions and MAC enlargements have very different effects on the behavior of the ISTE. MAC enlargements induce inefficient trade by encouraging the profit maximizing ISTE to increase its exports. In terms of welfare, MAC enlargements are immiser-izing. We conclude that tariff reductions are to be preferred to MAC increases as a means to liberalize trade .     

Partial Market Liberalization and the Efficiency of Policy Reform: The Case of the European Dairy Sector

This article analyzes the efficiency of partial market liberalization and policy reform with an application to the European dairy sector. In a second best world, partial moves toward market liberalization are not always efficiency improving. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate the efficiency implications of discrete changes in government policy. The analysis covers price and quantity instruments used in both domestic and trade policy. We derive simple conditions under which partial market liberalization is efficiency improving. We apply the approach to agricultural policy reform in the European dairy sector and identify market liberalization scenarios that are "not" efficiency improving.