STRUCTURAL PROJECTIONS OF THE SCOTTISH DAIRY INDUSTRY USING MICRO AND MACRO MARKOV TRANSITION MATRICES

This article analyses changes in the size-structure of the dairy industry in the SMMB area. It compares the performance of projections based on easily available, aggregate data using well-known computer routines with projections made from detailed, infrequently collected, farm-level data. The paper suggests that although yields are continuing to rise this may no longer be sufficient to compensate for the loss of producers, so that there may be a fall in total milk output in the 1980s.     

COHORT ANALYSIS OF THE DAIRY FARM WORK FORCE

This paper traces variations in the dairy farm work force in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland. Although the substantial differences between States in income levels are reflected in differing rates of reduction in the work force, these differences are not also reflected by appreciable differences in mean age and age structure. The cohort analysis explains this observation.     

ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION FRONTIER METHODOLOGIES AND DAIRY FARM EFFICIENCY

This paper estimates technical efficiency (TE) measures using four alternative production frontier models, and evaluates the sensitivity of the results to the choice of methodology. The Cobb-Douglas functional form along with data for 1982 and 1983 from 404 dairy farms located throughout six northeastern states in the US are used in the estimation. A general conclusion is that, broadly speaking, frontier function models are neutrally upwardly scaled versions of the OLS or average model. A second conclusion is that different models yield markedly different efficiency levels across firms. However, the correlation between the indexes from the various methods is high, which implies that the ordinal ranking of firms according to their measured level of technical efficiency appears to be independent of the method used for a given year. By comparison, the correlation between efficiency indexes for the same method across time, although positive, is much lower than the previous set of correlations. Correlation analysis of efficiency versus farm size and of efficiency versus returns over variable costs, based on the alternative models, yielded consistent results.     

MARKETING BOARDS AND QUOTA POLICIES FOR CANADIAN FARM PRODUCTS: AN APPRAISAL OF PERFORMANCE*

Since the great economic Depression, Canadian farm operators have always emphasized the need to strengthen their bargaining position in the market place. Basically, farm operators believe that the individual farmer is in no position to bargain effectively in a product market with a few large firms.
Legislators have responded to the wishes of farm operators by enacting legislation which provides for the formation of compulsory marketing boards controlled by producers. An ever-increasing number of these boards are now in operation. The granting of exclusive powers to sell particular farm products, however, is one which involves the public interest and the public is, therefore, vitally interested.
This paper focuses attention on the exercise of the powers vested in these marketing boards through their use of quotas, and their limitations to entry of new producers into particular sectors of the agricultural industry. The paper indicates that there are some positive features to the quota policies pursued by marketing boards. Some economic security has been afforded farm operators with short-term stability engendered in particular sectors of agriculture. There are certain negative consequences of these quota policies, which affect the location of production and also impair the competitive strength of particular sectors of agriculture to which they are applied. They have also interfered with the most rational utilization of resources in associated industries. These aspects of the quota policies are, therefore, inconsistent with the public interest. The study outlines principles that should form the basis of a revitalized marketing policy that may be more consistent with the public interest.     

SIMULATED MARKETS,FARM STRUCTURE,AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES*

In this investigation estimated relationships of resource markets for United States agriculture are used in a simulation model to study resource demand and farm income under three conditions: (a) those actually prevailing, including the historic mix of agricultural policies, (b) with technical change in agriculture only half the rate realized, and (c) with a free market. The results indicate that compared with “actual” conditions the environment of slow technical change would have modest effects in slowing the demand for farm machinery and the migration of labor from agriculture. It also would result in greater net farm income in the 1960's. A free market would be accompanied by increased investment in farm machinery and a greater exodus of family and hired labor from agriculture. It also would result in a smaller farm building investment and a considerable reduction of farm income. Since economic conditions are so similar in both countries, the implications of these findings are related to Canadian agriculture on the assumption the same model would show the same outcomes for Canada. Dans cette étude, des rapports estimés des marchés des ressources pour ?agriculture des Etats-Uns sont employés dans un modéle de simulation afin ?étudier la demande des ressources et le revenu agricol net sous trois conditions: (a) celle qui régne réellement, incluant le mélange historique de politiques agricoles; (b) celle qui ne montre le changement technique de ?agriculture qti à la moitié du train realise; et (c) celle qui profite ?un marché libre. Les résultats indiquent que ?enrironnement du changement technique modéré, quand il est compareé avec les conditions réelles, produirait des effets modestes en diminuant la demande pour des machines agricoles et en ralentissant ?exode de la main-?oeuvre de ?agriculture. En outre, cet environment aurait pour résultat un revenu agricole net plus fort dans les années de 1060 à 1970. Vne marché libre serait accompangne de placements augmentés dans les machines agricoles et ?un plus grand exode de la main ?oeuvre familiale et salariée de ?agriculture. Aussi, ceci aboutirait à un investissement moindre dans la construction rurale et à une réduction considérable du revenu agricole. Puisque les conditions économiques des deux pays sont si ressemblantes, les implications de ces conclusions sont rattachées à?agriculture cana-dienne en supposant que le même modéle montrerait les mêmes résultats pour le Canada.     

AN INTERMEDIATE INPUT MODEL OF DAIRY PRODUCTION USING COMPLEX SURVEY DATA

Agricultural production is often characterised by multiple inputs and multiple outputs to multiple production processes. Where an output from one process is used as an input to another, this output is called an intermediate product. This is a common situation when a farm produces both crops and livestock. The analysis of production efficiency is important for the evaluation of agricultural policy, but until recently, no methods have explicitly included intermediate products. This study applies a non-parametric technique of efficiency measurement which includes intermediate products. The data set is a sample of dairy farms drawn using a complex survey design. The use of non-parametric efficiency measurement and the subsequent application of bootstrapping and kernel density estimation to the results allow inferences to be drawn concerning the whole population from which the sample was drawn. We find that the decomposition of production into subproduction processes reduces the dimensions of problem specification, with the effect that a larger number of variables may be usefully included in the model.     

CONTROLLING STRAW BURNING: FARM MANAGEMENT MODELLING OF THE POLICY OPTIONS USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Autumn-sown cereals place pressure on post-harvest operations, particularly straw disposal. Burning is often a private solution but imposes external costs on others. Policy options to control burning include an outright ban, standard regulations, pollution taxes and transferable discharge rights. The effects of such options on farm income are assessed for an East of England cereals farm using a Linear Programming model. Results are sensitive to assumed straw yields, the market price of straw, and incorporation costs. Transferable discharge rights offer a flexible and efficient instrument to regulate straw burning at a non-zero level.     

SOME FEATURES OF FARM INCOME AND STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN REGIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Farm income trends and developments in farm structure have varied within the UK in the last decade. While Wales and Northern Ireland have similarities in form structure, agricultural production has risen to a much smaller extent, and farmers have suffered more severe net income reductions, in Scotland and Northern Ireland than in England and Wales. The net incomes of Cropping farms rose faster and, in England, have remained much higher than those of Dairy or Livestock farms. Large numbers of small farm businesses depend on beef cattle and sheep production and have limited development prospects. As most of their occupiers are unlikely to find other employment, structural problems will persist and policy adjustments are suggested to enable agriculture to contribute more to the economy in remote and depressed localities.