Why has US monetary policy become ineffective lately?

Some recent studies show that US monetary policy has lost its stimulative traction, especially since the early 1980s. They argue that the Fed’s forward guidance has enabled economic agents to anticipate the changes in interest rates more accurately. As a result, it is harder to find truly exogenous monetary policy shocks, which has made monetary policy ineffective. In this article, we find that anomalous economic behaviours of financial institutions might be the true reason for the ineffective monetary policy. Our structural vector autoregressive model shows that increases in the US money supply mostly flowed into the financial sector to increase its profits instead of stimulating the real sector of the economy through business investment.     

Institutional constraints,double imbalances and policy option—global financial crisis and China’s fiscal policy

With the enormous development of China’s economy, we re-implement the proactive fiscal policy not only to response to the global financial crisis, but also to take advantage of the opportunity to resolve the institutional constraints, transform China’s economic growth pattern, keep stability and promote the sustainable growth of the economy. So the goal of fiscal policy should weigh easing the economic crisis against long-term stability and the development of economy. The past experiences of fiscal policy practices in China indicate that the traditional simple counter-cyclical fiscal policy may be able to pull the economy out of recession, but it has little effect on automatic recovery of the economy. Therefore, the fiscal policies need to hang on the entire reform process and the whole economic structure adjustment. This paper firstly reveals the root of “double imbalances” and institutional constraints, then analyzes the paradox between such constraints, and discusses the space of positive fiscal policy.     

财政扩张与供需失衡:孰为因? 孰为果?

一般认为,在经济出现内需不足和供给过剩的失衡状态时,政府倾向于通过财政扩张来克服经济不景气,即经济失衡是因,财政扩张是果。而本文的研究发现,中国财政扩张也是经济失衡的重要原因,即财政扩张与经济失衡存在循环累积因果关系。原因在于:以带有累退性质的商品税为主的税制结构强化了居民消费约束,也促使国民收入分配向政府和企业倾斜;供需失衡容易导致政府扩大财政支出和实行增税政策,这将进一步强化供需失衡局面;尽管面临宏观经济失衡,但是政府调控经济的手段存在很强的工具性约束,短期看财政政策有助于带动经济增长,但是从长期看,消除危机的政策可能成为下一次危机的诱因。     

Making Visible the Hidden Economy: The Case for Gender-Impact Analysis of Economic Policy

This paper makes the case for analyzing the gender impact of economic policy, based on the existence of an unpaid as well as a paid economy and on structural differences between men's and women's positions across the two economies. Economic policy is targeted on the paid economy. However, unintended impacts on the unpaid care economy may limit how effective any policy can be. Gender-impact assessment will not only make the effects of economic policies on gender inequalities transparent; it will also enable policy makers to achieve all their goals more effectively, whether or not these goals relate explicitly to gender. The introduction in the UK of a new Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC), designed to make employment pay and help reduce child poverty, provides an example of how gender-impact assessment could have been used to improve an initial policy design. The paper also suggests criteria for evaluating economic policy, so that its full gender impact and its effects on both paid and caring economies can be assessed.     

促进绿色经济的最优政策模型

发展绿色经济,既是中国经济社会可持续发展的必然选择,也是应对未来可能日益增多的国际环境问题矛盾的迫切要求.政府促进绿色经济政策工具可分为管制性和经济引导性两类.管制性政策的弹性小,有效成本巨大,而经济引导性能够促进关联者自发行动,是主要考虑对象.目前我国绿色经济政策的参数多为主观判断,缺乏定量化手段.以stackelberg模型作为理论基础来构建博弈模型,可以分析绿色产业链条的责任者和辅助者与政府政策之间的互动,得出最优征罚率与最优补贴率,从而为制定促进绿色经济发展的最优经济引导性政策提供建议.     

宏观调控与实体经济

我国当前的宏观经济面临通货膨胀和经济增长下行的双重压力,两者都会在实体经济上反映出来。针对通货膨胀应该高度关注并采取适度的宏观调控政策,但不能反应过度。现阶段的主要矛盾已经转到经济增长下行问题。宏观经济学的精髓在于均衡,合适的宏观政策应该是在保持经济增长和控制通货膨胀之间找到均衡,选择一个合适的均衡点。我国近期根据宏观经济的走势实施稳健的货币政策和积极的财政政策,意味着将会释放出数量较大的流动性,而这些流动性应该重点流向实体经济。有效的宏观调控必须是以市场化改革所形成的经济体制为基础的。不能因为宏观调控而放慢市场化改革的步伐,尤其要支持实体经济领域民营经济的发展。     

安徽省产业内贸易对其经济增长的贡献分析

近年来,安徽省的经济有了长足发展,这与其实施的相关经济政策是密不可分的。根据统计数据,通过实证分析来探讨安徽省经济增长与其贸易发展的相关性,并且利用相关的模型分析产业内贸易对其经济增长的贡献度,进而提出促进安徽省贸易、经济更加健康合理发展的政策建议。     

后危机时期国际金融格局的变动及其对美国经济的影响

2008年金融危机给世界经济带来了重大的影响,国际金融格局也发生了显著变化。本文主要分析了国际汇率体系、国际收支和国际储备体系、国别经济政策与国际间经济政策协调的变化。在后危机时期,美国经济也受国际金融格局变化的影响,包括美元中心地位的问题、“中心一外围”模式可持续性的问题和美国的国际经济领导权问题。本文得出的主要结论是：国际几种主要货币汇率波动增大,国际汇率体系弹性增大,国际收支总体失衡程度下降,美元为主的国际储备体系呈多元化趋势,先进经济体与新兴发展经济体的经济协调在加强,美元的霸权地位面临挑战,美国在国际分工中的中心地位在下降,美国在国际经济的主导地位也在逐渐下降,新兴经济体获得更多的话语权。     

货币政策对住宅商品房价格影响的区域差异——来自我国31省份的证据

我国房地产市场的发展演进与我国宏观经济走向有着密切的关系。由于我国不同地区间经济发展水平各异，经济运行特点有别，我国区域住宅商品房市场价格与宏观经济的联动关系以及对货币政策的反应效力均呈现出了明显差异。本文根据我国31省份的相关宏观数据，通过VAR/PVAR模型及统计学方法，研究发现了能够解释各区域住宅商品房价格趋势被持续维持的“正螺旋反馈机制”及货币政策的时滞效应。基于此，可将全国各省份的住宅商品房价格趋势的形成类型划分为货币政策主导型、经济增长主导型、混合主导型与房地产主导型。     

The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade

This paper examines the Japanese economy in the 1990s, a decade of economic stagnation. We find that the problem is not a breakdown of the financial system, as corporations large and small were able to find financing for investments. There is no evidence of profitable investment opportunities not being exploited due to lack of access to capital markets. The problem then and today is a low productivity growth rate. Growth theory, treating TFP as exogenous, accounts well for the Japanese lost decade of growth. We think that research effort should be focused on what policy changes will allow productivity to again grow rapidly. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E2, E13, O4, O5.     

Political economy of China’s trade policy: the evidence from industrial protection in 1990s

The theory of the political economy of trade policy, combining public choice and neoclassical trade theories, studies the level and pattern of trade intervention from the perspective of policy decision-making process, by stressing on income distribution instead of economic efficiency. The paper attempts to apply such an endogenous trade theory to an empirical study of China. On the basis of a formal revised model of political economy of trade protection, it tests theoretical hypotheses concerning the political and economic determinants of cross-sector trade protection in the Chinese industry at various periods. The results show that trade protection in China fits into China’s national development strategy of fast catching-up with the developed world.     

Will Gradualism Work When Shock Therapy Doesn’t?

When shock therapy is politically infeasible, will gradualism work? This paper takes up this question by: (i) building a political economy model in which it makes sense; (ii) stating the relevant political economy constraint rigorously; and (iii) analyzing the question in the context of a neoclassical model of adjustment, based on Mussa (1978). The paper answers the question in the affirmative, thus contributing to the scientific and policy literature on the economic analysis of policy reform.     

北京市环境经济政策研究

北京市的经济管理体制在由以计划为主转变为以市场为主的过程中，原来所实施的环境经济政策出现了一系列问题，本文针对这些问题，提出了一些建议，即使用者付费政策、环境税、超标罚款政策、环保奖励政策，并对居民的承受能力进行了分析。     

产业链效应与产业链传导机制研究

产业作为国民经济重要组成部分,对经济增长起着决定性的作用。而国民经济中的各产业又是相互影响、相互作用的,构成了错综复杂的产业链条和网络,覆盖着整个国民经济,形成了独特的国民经济结构。从分析产业链的形态、构成和传导机制着手,分析国民经济各产业对经济增长的影响,从而研究保持经济稳定增长的产业政策和宏观经济政策。     

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes: A case of South Africa

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the South African economy with the aim of explaining and providing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes in the country. The models are applied to test the effectiveness of fiscal policy actions in an economic environment with existing structural supply constraints versus demand-side constraints and also to detect which components of the fiscal would be more effective in stabilising the economy. Based on the structure of the South African economy and the framework presented, the study concludes that the South African economy can be characterised as one which is embedded with structural supply constraints. Thus, a model which is suitable for policy analyses of the South African economy needs to capture the long-run supply-side characteristics of the economy. A price block is incorporated to specify the price adjustment between the supply-side sector and real aggregate demand sector. The models are estimated with time-series data from 1970 to 2011, capturing both the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of the economy. The results from the series of fiscal policy scenarios suggest that fiscal policy actions are more effective in an economic environment with limited or no supply constraints. Fiscal expansion or consolidation that comes more from government spending changes will be more effective in an economic environment where structural supply constraints are absent while tax revenue changes will be more effective in an economic environment where there exist major structural supply constraints.     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理,揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式;运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据,构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调;财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性,在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展;两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致,在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty

Increases in the real price of oil not explained by changes in global oil production or by global real demand for commodities are associated with significant increases in economic policy uncertainty and its four components (the volume of newspaper coverage of policy uncertainty, CPI forecast interquartile range, tax legislation expiration, and federal expenditures forecast interquartile range). Oil-market specific demand shocks account for 31% of conditional variation in economic policy uncertainty and 22.9% of conditional variation in CPI forecast interquartile range after 24 months. Positive oil shocks due to global real aggregate demand for commodities significantly reduce economic policy uncertainty. Structural oil price shocks appear to have long-term consequences for economic policy uncertainty, and to the extent that the latter has impact on real activity the policy connection provides an additional channel by which oil price shocks have influence on the economy. As a robustness check, structural oil price shocks are significantly associated with economic policy uncertainty in Europe and energy-exporting Canada.     

资本经济一般:马克思主义经济学发展的新课题

马克思主义经济学不仅研究特定的经济性质关系,而且研究经济一般和经济运行关系。社会主义经济关系认识中对经济一般理论的探索,是马克思主义经济学发展中的薄弱环节和巨大空间。我国经济改革中的资本经济转轨,使资本运动扩展到社会主义经济过程,形成体现现代大生产运行的资本经济一般关系;挖掘并升华资本经济一般理论,无疑是马克思主义经济学发展的新机遇和新天地。     

National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

我国财政宏观调控政策及其转型取向--兼论以农村教育为重点的财政调控

经济周期波动及其政府宏观调节是与市场经济共生的现象.经典理论形成了低谷和顶峰两极时期的财政对策,但忽视转型期的调控政策.我国新一轮增长拐点时期,将过去实施的积极财政政策转型为稳健的财政政策,财政调控的目标、手段、方式都需要发生改变.稳健的财政政策目标应该由单纯追求增长率转变为扩大就业,由类行政的直接调控转变为利用市场对企业施行间接调控,当前财政重点发展农村教育有助于实现经济由短期波动到长期增长的平稳过渡,并由此延长经济增长期.