WHY ARE FERTILITY RATES AND FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATIOS POSITIVELY CORRELATED ACROSS O.E.C.D. COUNTRIES?*

We develop a quantitative theory of fertility and labor market participation decisions in order to investigate the role of labor market frictions in generating the observed positive association between fertility and employment among O.E.C.D. countries. We find that unemployment induces females to postpone and space births, which, in turn, reduces the total fertility rate. Moreover, differences in female labor outcomes across the United States and Spain can account for the low fertility rate in Spain relative to the United States. We also find that labor market frictions can generate a positive association between female employment ratios and fertility rates across economies.     

中国股市市盈率分布特征及国际比较研究

本文对市盈率的内涵、计算方法、区间确定等理论问题进行了剖解 ,针对中国股市流通股、非流通股并存等特征 ,对市盈率在中国股市的计算方法进行了分析 ;在此基础上对中国股市市盈率分布特征进行实证分析和国际比较研究 ,认为目前沪深股市泡沫成份已较少 ,市盈率在合理区间之内 ,中国股市具有投资价值     

Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

Determinants of U.S. direct investment in the E.E.C.: Revisited

This paper expands upon an earlier work in this Review concerning the specification of a model to identify the determinants of U.S. direct foreign investment (DFI) in the E.E.C. Compared to earlier studies, a longer data series is used, an improved tariff discrimination proxy is employed, and ‘predicted sales’ are estimated and used as the output variable in the empirical work. A variable to capture the effect of the U.S. capital control programs is also included. The findings reaffirm the importance of market size, especially in the plant and equipment equations, as being an important determinant of DFI. Strong support was also found for the growth hypothesis. Consistent statistical support was found for the tariff discrimination hypothesis. In addition, the findings imply that a variable to capture the effects of fluctuating exchange rates should be included in future studies.     

O．E．威廉姆森学术思想发展的三个阶段

2009年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者O．E．威廉姆森的学术思想经历了三个发展阶段：早期侧重于企业行为与市场管制；巅峰时期研究交易成本和企业边界；晚年集中于公司治理和管理。威廉姆森的研究深受赫伯特．西蒙的影响，将经济学、管理学、法学、心理学、政治学等结合起来，从跨学科的视角研究真实世界里的企业，对经济发展和社会科学研究产生了广泛而深远的影响。     

The relationship between saving and finance: theory and evidence from E.U. countries

This paper investigates the relationship between saving and investment in an effort to shed light on the issue of mobility of capital and whether or not this is prevented by the presence of any barriers. The data of our analysis are annual and come from 14 E.U. countries during the 1960–1994 period. The econometric analysis shows that for the E.U. countries, saving and the provision of credit are two cointegrated variables, which means that for each E.U. country (Belgium was the only exception) the amount of money saved is closely related to the amount of money that is ultimately invested. This result lends support to the view that in E.U. countries the degree of capital mobility plays a minor role in investment, which is primarily influenced by the conditions affecting the domestic provision of savings. In addition, the econometric analysis shows that the causal linkage is in most countries from savings to investment.     

高职体育教学改革的探讨

高职体育教学中的素质教育主要包括思想道德素质、科学文化素质、身体素质、高职院校体育教学改革要适应培养实用型技术人才的需要,突出自身发展的特点和规律,以发展学生个性为原则,应高度重视高职学生所学专业与体育基本能力的结合,突出素质教育的特点对高职体育教学进行全方位的改革。     

体育教学环境的调控与优化探析

体育教学环境是体育教学活动中的一个重要因素,也是现代体育教学理论研究中的重要内容。通过文献资料和调查法,对环境、教学环境、体育教学环境的概念、构成要素等基本问题作了探讨。在此基础上,提出了调控优化体育教学环境的策略,为提高体育教学效果提供了一定的参考。     

Transmission of inflationary pressures between the E.E.C. members: A tentative measurement using cost-push and demand-pull formulations

This study tries to measure the transmission of inflationary pressures through import prices. The first part presents a two-country example in order to illustrate the methodology. The second part analyses the results obtained from nine linked econometric models representing the E.E.C. countries first in a pure cost-push approach and second in a mixed cost-push-demand-pull formulation.     

MONETARY POLICY AND LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES

Movements in long-term interest rates Granger-cause movements in the target federal funds rate, but not vice versa, during 1990–2001. This implies that changes in the monetary policy stance, as measured by the target rate, are predicted by the bond market. Moreover, even innovations to the target rate have little effect on long-term interest rates. The policy instrument seems to be responding to information that is already impounded in the bond market. In sharp contrast, during an earlier period, changes in the target federal funds rate are mostly unanticipated by the bond market, and innovations to the policy target have a large and significant effect on long-term interest rate. ( JEL E52, E43)     

UNOFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATES IN BANGLADESH: A COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

This article estimates a structural model for unofficial market foreign exchange (forex) rates (E U ) and examines the stability of the forex market in Bangladesh using an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration analysis on quarterly data from 1976Q2–1995Q2. It also compares the in-sample and out-of-sample (from 1995Q3–1999Q2) forecasting performances of the structural model with other timE-series models. With E U as a dependent variable and official exchange rates (E O ) , money supply (M) , the difference between foreign and domestic interest rates (I) , forex reserves relative to imports (Q) and political along with some structural factors (D85) as explanatory variables, a multivariate cointegrated relationship is found in which E O , Q , and I cause an appreciation and M and D85 cause a depreciation in E U . These results imply that the overvaluation of the official exchange rate, increases in money supply, the paucity of official forex reserves, and structural factors are the main causes for the creation of the unofficial market for forex in Bangladesh. Results also reveal that the forex market in Bangladesh is stable during the sample period. The structural model performs well in in-sample prediction, and the random walk model performs best in out-of-sample forecasting.     

影响高职院校体育教学俱乐部师资队伍的发展策略

有许多因素限制高职院校体育教学俱乐部的发展。其中师资队伍是不能忽视的一个重要因素。教师作为教学过程的组织者,其年龄、职称、学历、专项、继续教育情况等种种客观因素与工作积极性这个主观因素都会影响到体育教学俱乐部的发展。通过文献法、问卷调查法等获得数据进行分析,相应提出一些建设性的发展策略供参考。     

Lumpy consumer durables, market power, and endogenous business cycles

Abstract.  In this paper we show that lumpy consumer durables and market power can generate endogenous cycles consistent with the facts. Past sales determine the current market size of durable goods. Larger past sales, ceteris paribus, thus naturally result in a smaller current market size and income. In this manner, the seeds of a downturn are sown in an upturn. JEL Classification: E32, E13     

C.E.S. production functions in the light of the Cambridge critique

The Cambridge debate of the 1960s showed conclusively that the aggregation of capital, so as to obtain a surrogate production function according to Samuelson, is not possible in general, with critical implications also for other variants of neoclassical theory. The framework for the demonstration is that of linear activity analysis.There is an individual wage curve in function of the rate of profit for each technique. If these individual wage curves were straight lines, their envelope would define a wage curve resulting from all techniques, from which a surrogate production function could be derived, but all wage curves are straight only, if there is only one industry. And if wage curves are not straight, phenomena such as reswitching show that essential neoclassical hypotheses need not hold. A recent empirical investigation by Han and Schefold has found one empirical example for reswitching and several for reverse capital deepening.A rigorous derivation of surrogate production functions thus is ruled out also on empirical grounds, but the paradoxes seem not to be as frequent as the critics once thought, so that the question arises whether approximate surrogate production functions could be derived, with individual wage curves which would be sufficiently linear to construct approximate surrogate production functions, indicating a relationship between the intensity of capital and output per head which would be sufficiently precise to work with.The paper is part of a wider investigation, in which conditions for the existence of quasi-linear wage curves and the possibility of the construction of approximate surrogate production functions are given. The emphasis here is on the special hypotheses needed to obtain C.E.S. production functions.     

DOUBLING U.S. EXPORTS UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS OF SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION

President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import‐demand curves and domestic export‐supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy‐wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession‐relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor‐demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export‐promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1‐year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)     

市盈率分析的认识误区及市场改进措施

市盈率是市场投资价值分析重要而富有争议的指标,目前人们对市盈率分析普遍存在八大误区。在分析市盈率认识误区的基础上,对中国证券市场市盈率水平进行了简单判断。认为我国沪深市场平均市盈率水平的确过高,并分析了市盈率较高的原因及市场改进措施。     

SHOULD THERE BE INTRADAY MONEY MARKETS?

In this article, we consider the case for an intraday market for reserves. We discuss the separate roles of intraday and overnight reserves and argue that an intraday market could be organized in the same way as the overnight market. We present arguments in favor of and against a market for intraday reserves when the marginal cost of overnight reserves is positive. We also consider how reserves should be supplied when the cost of overnight reserves is zero. In that case, the distinction between overnight and intraday reserves becomes blurred, raising an important question: What is the role of the overnight market?(JEL E44, E58)     

DOES FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT STIMULATE SAVINGS? EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

This paper examines the empirical relation between financial market development, as measured by the stock market, and gross private savings rates in 16 emerging markets over 1982-1993. With data from all 16 countries, there is evidence of a significant positive relation between savings and stock market size and liquidity. When countries with outlying values for the stock market measures are excluded, however, all significance disappears. The results suggest that a growing or deepening stock market will not necessarily be associated with higher savings rates. ( JEL E21, 016)     

主体性体育教学模式的内涵与概念的重新审视——再论体育教学中学生主体性的发展

通过对主体性体育教学模式的内涵与概念的重新审视，就体育教学中学生主体性的发展问题做出了进一步的思考，以期为体育教学改革提供有益的参考。     

Does Increased International Influence Cause Higher Stock Market Volatility?

Increased international financial integration is likely to cause greater market interdependence. This may either reduce volatility or increase it, by adding a new source of noise. Based on Swedish data, the findings in this paper are that foreign influence on the stock market shows a clear, positive trend, while purely domestic factors have not become more volatile. The trendwise increase in volatility on the Swedish stock market can thus be attributed to increased foreign influence.
JEL Classification : E 44; F 3; G 1