要素累积、全要素生产率与中国农业增长地区差异

本文在对改革开放以来中国农业的增长以及地区差异进行统计分析的基础上,提出一个待验证的假说:农业产出的省级地区差异主要来自于全要素生产率的差异.为验证该假说,本文使用随机前沿生产函数方法测算了各地区不同年份的要素弹性,据此将农业产出来源分为投入要素的累积和全要素生产率两个方面,并进一步采用方差分解的办法,考察了样本期间内农业产出的地区差异的来源.     

Assessing Total Factor Productivity Growth in Sub‐Saharan African Agriculture

The importance of the agricultural sector in the economic development process is well known. Improvements in agricultural productivity are often found to spill into other areas of a developing economy, potentially improving the standards of living of urban and rural workers alike. Given the importance of this sector, accurate measures of total factor productivity (TFP) across countries can be helpful in identifying conditions, institutions or policies that promote agricultural development. In this article, we estimate TFP growth in agriculture for a panel of 39 sub‐Saharan African countries from 1961 to 2007. We also develop a set of development outcome measures theoretically consistent with strong agricultural performance to serve as external validation of our results. We find that three estimation methods (stochastic frontier, generalised maximum entropy, and Bayesian efficiency) generate relative rankings that are consistent with the development outcome measures, providing external validation of the methods. However, the data envelopment analysis approach performs poorly in this regard.     

农村生产投入要素结构变化与农业技术发展方向

生产要素投入结构的变化是反映技术变动和发展方向的一个主要指标。过去20年里,我国农业生产要素投入结构发生了显著变化,但变化因产品而异,解释和研究这种变化对政府和私人企业投资农业具有重要的意义。本文的主要研究目的是揭示农业生产要素投入结构的变化趋势及内在原因。研究结果表明,土地密集型作物（如粮食）生产的资金（尤其是机械）对劳动的替代趋势极为显著,而劳动密度作物（如园艺作物）生产的劳动与资金很难替代。根据研究结果,本文提出了农业科技投资的一些政策建议。     

基于Malmquist指数的中国乳制品业全要素生产率分析

本文采用2002-2006年中国乳制品业的面板数据.通过非参数的Malmquist指数分析方法,对中国乳制品业全要素生产率(TFP)的变动情况进行了实证研究,并进一步将其分解为技术进步、纯技术效率和规模效率.结果表明,2002-2006年中国乳制品业TFP的年均增长率为11.4%,呈现出快速增长的特征,其中,技术进步为9.7%,技术效率为1.5%,技术进步构成中国乳制品业TFP增长的主要动力.分省份看,76.7%的省份乳制品业TFP增长的主要动力来自于技术进步;分不同企业规模和企业经济类型看,除集体企业外,乳制品企业TFP增长的主要动力均来自于技术进步.     

农业科技创新对农业绿色全要素生产率的空间效应分析

文章通过数据包络模型测算2013-2018年我国31个省的农业绿色全要素生产率,剖析其时空分布演进特征,在测算结果基础上构建空间杜宾模型,探讨农业科技创新对农业绿色全要素生产率的空间溢出效应。研究发现:2013-2018年全国农业绿色全要素生产率空间分异与集聚特征明显;本省农业科技创新显著促进了农业绿色全要素生产率的提升,而其辐射作用阻碍了周边省的农业绿色全要素生产率的提高。研究结果对于深化完善农业科技创新机制、提升农业科技教育水平、创新农业科技推广模式具有现实意义。     

Six Decades of Total Factor Productivity Change and Sources of Growth in Bangladesh Agriculture (1948–2008)

This study applies the Färe–Primont index to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) indices for agriculture in 17 regions of Bangladesh covering a 61‐year period (1948–2008). It decomposes the TFP index into six finer components (technical change, technical‐, scale‐ and mix‐efficiency changes, residual scale‐ and residual mix‐efficiency changes). Results reveal that TFP grew at an average rate of 0.57% p.a. led by the Chittagong, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Dinajpur and Noakhali regions. TFP growth is largely powered by technological progress estimated at 0.74% p.a. Technical efficiency improvement is negligible (0.01% p.a.) due to stagnant efficiency in most of the regions. Decline in scale efficiency is also negligible (0.01% p.a.), but the decline in mix efficiency is high at 0.19% p.a. Decomposition of the components of TFP changes into finer measures of efficiency corrects the existing literature’s blame of a decline in technical efficiency as the main cause of poor TFP growth in Bangladesh. Among the sources, farm size, R&D investment, extension expenditure and crop specialisation positively influenced TFP growth, whereas the literacy rate had a negative influence on growth. Policy implications include encouraging investment in R&D and extension, land reform measures to increase average farm size, promotion of Green Revolution technology and crop diversification.     

中国牛奶生产的全要素生产率分析

本文以国有及集体和个体奶牛场牛奶生产的随机投入距离函数,分析中国牛奶全要素生产率的增长及来源。总体上讲,中国牛奶生产全要素生产率的增长是比较温和的,国有及集体和个体奶牛场全要素生产率的年均增长率分别为0.25%和2.33%,主要来自于技术进步。国有及集体奶牛场的技术效率明显下降,而个体奶牛场的技术效率略有增长。中国牛奶生产的技术效率水平大约为80%～90%。推广新技术仍然是中国今后牛奶生产的优先政策。     

Productivity and Convergence in European Agriculture

We investigate relative productivity levels and decompose productivity change for European agriculture between 2004 and 2013. Specifically (i) we contribute to the debate on whether agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has declined or not in the European Union (EU); (ii) we compare the relative TFP level across EU Member States and investigate the difference between ‘old’ Member States (OMS, i.e. the EU‐15) and ‘new’ Member States (NMS); and (iii) we test whether TFP is converging or not among Member States. The empirical analysis applies an aggregate quantity framework to country‐level panel data from the Economic Accounts for Agriculture for 23 EU Member States. The results imply that TFP has slightly decreased in the EU over the analysed period; however there are significant differences between the OMS and NMS and across Member States. Finally, our estimates suggest that productivity is generally converging over this period, albeit slowly.     

Livestock in China: Commodity-Specific Total Factor Productivity Decomposition Using New Panel Data

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochastic frontier approach, and decompose productivity growth into its technical efficiency (TE) and technical progress components. Efforts are made to adjust and augment the available livestock statistics. The results show that growth in TFP and its components varied between the 1980s and the 1990s as well as over production structures. While there is evidence of considerable technical innovation in China's livestock sector, TE improvement has been relatively slow.     

Productivity in Chinese Provincial Agriculture

Technical change, technical efficiency and multifactor productivity indices are reported for a multiple-output, multiple-input production technology using Chinese provincial data for the 1979-95 period. Results show significant variation in productivity change from year to year and province to province. Using panel methods, we regress the three production indices on several factors important in explaining productivity changes. Decollectivisation in the early 1980s accounts for a significant expansion of the frontier, while rural industrialisation decreased agricultural productivity. Productivity is also sensitive to relative grain prices, to natural disasters such as flood and drought, and proximity of the provinces to coastal areas.     

基于DEA的中国茶叶产业全要素生产率分析

本文运用DEA方法测算了1998-2005年我国茶叶产业中的绿茶和红茶的TFP变动及其对茶叶产业增长的贡献.结果表明,1998-2003年我国绿茶TFP的年均增长率为1.61%,2001-2005年红茶TFP增长率为3.53%;从总体上看,这一时期我国绿茶TFP增长呈现明显的波动性特征,茶叶生产和流通制度的变革、技术创新和新技术的推广使用以及茶叶市场价格变动可能是茶叶TFP生产效率变动的主要原因.     

黑龙江国有林区林业产业全要素生产率及其影响因素分析

利用DEA法测量了黑龙江省森工40个林业企业的全要素生产率(Total Factor Productiv-ity,TFP),并利用Panel-Data模型找出其影响因素。实证分析结果表明:2003～2009黑龙江国有林区林业企业全要素生产率总体上呈现下降趋势,其原因可归结为林区技术进步缓慢;规模效率和纯技术效率对全要素生产率有正向作用;技术因素和营林投资比重对森工企业的全要素生产率有正向影响,固定资产投资对其存在负向影响,而劳动投入和天保工程(政策因素)对其影响不显著。为此,提出鼓励林业企业技术创新、优化林业投资结构、加强林业投资体制改革、加快森林生态服务的市场化进程和深化林业管理体制改革等建议。     

中国城市土地供给错配：特征事实及对 全要素生产率的影响效应

研究目的：探究城市土地供给错配的典型特征,明晰城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率的影响,为提升土地配置效率和全要素生产率提供经验证据。研究方法：从土地供给过度与供给不足视角解析城市土地错配对全要素生产率的影响机制,通过空间一般均衡模型构建城市土地供给错配指数,利用面板计量模型和中介效应模型进行实证分析及中介效应检验。研究结果：（1）中国城市土地供给错配表现出明显的差异性：不同地区、城市规模、人口流动方向分别呈现出“东少西多”“阶梯递减”“逆向配置”特征。（2）城市土地供给错配对全要素生产率产生负向影响,影响效应在不同类型城市存在异质性,城市土地供给过度对全要素生产率的负向作用强于土地供给不足。（3）城市土地供给过度通过创新创业发展和产业结构优化双重路径显著抑制了城市全要素生产率,土地供给不足主要通过产业结构优化对城市效率产生显著的负向影响。研究结论：应警惕土地配置过度的“经济效率”陷阱,强化建设用地指标分配的人地挂钩机制,因城施策提升土地资源配置效率。     

Bridging the Gap between Partial and Total Factor Productivity Measures Using Directional Distance Functions

Technical dependencies as well as data constraints limit our ability to allocate inputs across sectors and hence our ability to measure sectoral productivity. We adapt a directional measure of efficiency to the measurement of sector-specific productivity that does not require allocating all inputs across sectors. Applied to the agricultural sector of a group of countries, the results show important differences in livestock and crops productivity growth. Commonly used partial factor productivity measures for livestock and crops tend to overestimate productivity growth in most developing countries while underestimating it in European countries.     

土地资源空间错配的绿色全要素生产率损失效应与作用机制

研究目的：刻画、分析土地资源空间错配对绿色全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制，指出缓解土地资源空间错配促进绿色全要素生产率提升的路径。研究方法：面板中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）土地资源空间错配的绿色全要素生产率损失效应显著存在，土地供给相对短缺城市的损失效应明显大于土地供给相对过剩城市。（2）结构效应、技术效应、规模效应三个维度的作用机制都显著成立。（3）对于全部城市，结构效应、技术效应相当，规模效应相对次要；对于土地供给相对过剩城市，结构效应更为重要；对于土地供给相对短缺城市，技术效应更为重要。研究结论：减缓土地资源空间错配程度，并分别针对性地避免制造业低端锁定效应、创新能力削弱效应在中西部、东部城市的负面作用，有利于提升绿色全要素生产率。     

土地资源错配的全要素生产率损失效应与形成机制

研究目的：测度土地资源错配的全要素生产率损失效应,分析土地资源错配的形成机制。研究方法：扩展的HK模型、面板计量模型。研究结果：（1）全国层面上,资源错配的全要素生产率损失效应平均值为19.03%且呈上升趋势。区域层面上,损失效应大小排序为西部、东部、东北、中部。（2）全国层面上,资源错配导致全要素生产率损失的主要症结在于土地资源错配。区域层面上,东部、中部地区的主要症结在于土地资源错配,西部、东北地区的主要症结在于资本错配。（3）全国层面上,机制障碍、数量结构均为土地资源错配的重要成因。区域层面上,土地资源错配的成因具有一定差异。研究结论：着力推动财税与政绩考核制度改革,调整基于地区、城市双重偏向的土地供给政策,有利于从机制障碍、数量结构两个维度化解土地资源错配,促进全要素生产率的提升。     

Efficiency and Technical Change in the Philippine Rice Sector: A Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Analysis

Regional differences in total factor productivity, efficiency, and technological change in the Philippine rice sector are examined for the post-Green Revolution era. Malmquist productivity indices were constructed for 1971–90 and were decomposed into efficiency and technological change. The average annual Malmquist productivity growth was only slightly positive. Productivity growth was negative during the early 1970s, and was followed by a period of positive growth. Growth was negative again in the late 1980s. The period of positive growth coincided with the introduction of new rice varieties while the declines are likely to have been caused by intensification of rice production in lowland farming systems. Certain regions such as Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Southern and Northern Mindanao had higher rates of technological change than others. This may be due to higher investments in infrastructure and education, increased adoption of tractors, and a better agroclimatic environment.     

中国1997—2007年包含建设用地投入的全要素生产率分析

研究目的:研究土地要素纳入经济增长全要素生产率分析的途径,并对中国近年来经济增长的全要素生产率进行分析。研究方法:数据包络分析方法。研究结果:测算的1997—2007年中国分省的全要素生产率Malmquist指数表明将建设用地纳入全要素生产率分析是可行的。研究结论:1997—2007年中国全要素生产率的增长主要靠技术进步带动;技术效率处于无效状态,表明建设用地等生产要素投入在经济增长中没有发挥最大效益。     

现代农业发展阶段及中国农业发展的国际比较

加快农业国际化进程,是21世纪中国农业战略性发展和实现农业现代化的一个重要方面。将中国农业推向国际舞台,在理论上需要明确现代农业发展阶段和中国农业国际化比较优势,这有助于明确不同阶段中国农业发展任务和要求,缩小与发达国家和农业现代化国家的农业差距,这是一项重要的基础工作。本文讨论现代农业阶段划分并在多国数据比较的基础上,对中国现代农业和农业现代化发展做出分析。一、农业发展阶段过去的经验和教训清楚地表明,农业对经济社会的作用是显而易见的,科学划分农业所处发展阶段,对提升农业水平,对促进经济社会发展的作用是巨大…