Financial revolutions and economic growth: Introducing this EEH symposium

This special issue of Explorations in Economic History includes four articles that delve into the 19th century financial development of Belgium, Germany, Sweden, and Japan, and relate these developments to economic growth. In this guest editor’s introduction, we survey current thinking about “financial revolutions” and their role in rapidly assembling the factors that can set modern growth into motion, and link this paradigm to both the more traditional and recent literatures on banks, stock markets, and growth. We conclude with summaries and some commentary on the articles that follow.     

Kleptocracy and revolutions

This paper develops an economic theory of revolutions as manifestationsof kleptocratic rivalry. The theory implies that whether ornot a revolution occurs and, if a revolution occurs, the probabilitythat it will be successful depends on the current realizationsof the stochastic factors, such as the current potential revolutionaryleader's skill in organizing a revolution, that determine theexpected effectiveness of insurgents relative to the ruler'ssoldiers. But, the theory also implies that, given the currentrealization of the expected effectiveness of insurgents, moreis spent on deterring revolutions that do not occur, and revolutionswhen they occur consume more resources, the larger is the valueof being the kleptocratic ruler. Unsurprisingly, some of those who suffered for the cause, inexile or underground, now feel they deserve their just rewards:good salaries, nice cars, patronage, and perks. (Timothy GartonAsh, 'The Curse and Blessing of South Africa', The New YorkReview of Books, August 14, 1997, page 10.)     

Organization and economic behavior: An interpretation of recent findings

Conclusion Institutionalist theorists have long suggested that market power creates managerial discretion to diverge from competitive norms — for good or for bad [Spechler, 1978]. Where differences appear among them on how to conceptualize the objective, Baumol [1967] and Eichner [1976] have argued for growth maximization (subject to a minimum profit constraint), while Galbraith [1973] and the Carnegie “school” [see Cyert, March, 1963] have preferred an indeterminate combination of security, growth, prestige, and so forth.     

Papua New Guinea: longer term developments and recent economic problems

Papua New Guinea (PNG) has much to learn from the Indonesian economic experience of coping with one booming sector while creating an environment in which the economy could generate jobs. PNG's macroeconomic policy adjustments to the boom-bust cycles which characterise its economy work extremely well by comparison to most other developing countries experiencing the same difficulties. At the microeconomic level, policy improvement has been harder, with the rhetoric far out-distancing the actual advances. The challenge is to improve the productivity of the agricultural sector, to raise the education levels, and to attract investment to provide employment. At present the investment environment is bleak because of the deteriorating law and order situation.     

Political instability and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some recent evidence

Political instability has become endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa. Since the early 1960s, when most of the African countries began to achieve independence, more than fifty coups have taken place in the continent. This rise in political decay has significantly affected economic development. This study examines the relationship between elite political instability and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. It concludes that lack of political stability has contributed significantly to economic stagnation in the continent of Africa.     

辽宁建设"五点一线"沿海经济带

目前辽宁老工业基地振兴的态势良好,正在进入全面振兴的新阶段.我们决心在以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央领导下,高举邓小平理论和"三个代表"重要思想伟大旗帜,全面落实科学发展观,努力实现辽宁老工业基地全面振兴的基本目标,把辽宁建设成为国家新型产业基地,使辽宁成为我国新的重要经济增长区域.     

中国经济增长中财政与货币政策效应的比较分析

1990年代末，中国政府为推动经济持续、健康发展，制订并实施了积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。哪项政策对经济增长的拉动作用更大？笔者运用计量经济模型进行实证分析，从理论和实践两个层面论证得出近年来财政政策的效应更大。     

The recent worldwide economic crisis and the welfare of children: The case of Cuba

As a consequence of the deeply interdependent nature of today's world, Cuba has been affected by the world recession and by the critical roles of international trade and finance. However, the Cuban government has maintained a constant commitment to the protection of the poor and the children through increasing allocations of resources to education and health and through the promotion of increased levels of popular participation. This paper describes the improvements in the areas of nutrition, health and education and the persistent problems in the area of housing. It shows that the improvements observed have reached the majority of the population, eliminating great disparities.     

The economic history of Thailand: Old debates,recent advances,and future prospects

Despite slow development of Thai economic history scholarship, research output in the last three decades has shed new light and improved arguments on classic debates using novel primary sources and quantitative methods. This article traces the evolution of three Thai economic history debates from the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries: (1) factors behind Thailand's slow economic growth; (2) the reluctance of rural workers to move into urban employment; and (3) the Thai government's failure to invest in large-scale irrigation projects. The article concludes with a discussion of current challenges facing Thai economic history research and suggestions to move the discipline forward.     

A simple model of crime waves, riots, and revolutions

Standard economic models of criminal behavior analyze the criminal's decision in a partial equilibrium context. The standard model does not recognize that the probability of being punished is a function of the total amount of crime that occurs. As the total amount of crime increases, police resources become strained, courts become congested, and prisons become overcrowded. As a result, proportionately fewer criminals are apprehended, convicted, and imprisoned. The feedback effects from one criminal's decision to participate in crime to another criminal's decision can be highly significant. In one parameterization of the model developed here, the individual commits twice as many crimes for a given parameter shift than is implied by the standard model. The model also sheds light on other areas where criminal actions are interdependent such as riots, crime waves, and revolutions.     

"十五"期间中国经济发展趋势与发展战略

新世纪,我国进入了全面建设小康社会并加快经济现代化新的发展阶段,“十五”期间是这个新阶段的重要时期。中国共产党十五届五中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划的建议》,是指导新世纪之初,我国改革开放和社会主义现代化建设的纲领性文件。按照中央“十五”计划《建议》的要求,“十五”计划要把发展作为主题,把结构调整作为主线,把改革开放和科技进步作为动力,把提高人民生活水平作为根本出发点,促进经济和社会的协调发展。     

Indian economic reforms and ASEAN-India economic relations

This paper provides a brief account of the history of ASEAN-India relations and the changes currently taking shape as a result of the Indian economic reforms and the country's look East Policy. The paper then argues that there are opportunities for both sides arising from the likely new growth scenario for India outlined in the paper.     

Modeling economic growth for long-term global economic forecasting

The correspondence between the factors of economic growth described in long-term economic forecasts and long-term forecasting modeling tools, as well as the classical theoretical interpretation of economic growth is analyzed.