Growth Accounting for the Chinese Provinces 1990–2000: Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation

This paper examines the linkage between aggregate real output, capital, labour, education, and productivity within a growth accounting framework for 27 Chinese provinces between 1990 and 2000. The results suggest that human capital has had a significant role in facilitating economic growth of all of the provinces throughout the 1990s. Regional disparities in factor accumulation are also considered. The results suggest that uneven distribution of resources between the coastal and inland provinces increased the regional gap in economic growth throughout the 1990s.     

Human capital and economic growth in Spain, 1850–2000

We investigate human capital accumulation in Spain using income- and education-based alternative approaches. We, then, assess human capital impact on labor productivity growth and discuss the implications of its alternative measures for TFP growth. Trends in human capital are similar with either measure but the skill-premium approach fits better Spanish historical experience. As education is a high income elastic good, human capital growth computed with the education-based approach seems upward biased for the recent past. Human capital provided a positive albeit small contribution to labor productivity growth facilitating technological innovation.     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.     

Role of TFP in China's Growth*

This paper uses the dual approach to growth accounting to examine the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in recent Chinese growth. Most previous growth accounting studies on China have followed the primal approach, which depends heavily on the national income accounts. Unfortunately, despite efforts to rectify them, Chinese national income accounts data continue to have problems that affect primal approach growth accounting results. The dual approach, in contrast, allows independent price information to play a role. Recent research has focused on the following two questions: (i) How significant has TFP's role been in post‐reform Chinese growth? (ii) Has TFP growth rate slowed down in more recent years? This paper finds that: (i) the TFP growth rate for mainland China computed using the dual approach also proves high; and (ii) there has been some slowdown in TFP growth rate in recent years.     

Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Several recent studies on total factor productivity (TFP) concluded that the East Asian economies benefited little from TFP growth. This study claims that the failure by previous studies to consider the effect of net indirect taxes and market imperfections resulted in the underestimation of the share of the contribution of labor input to factor income, which consequently led to the overestimation of capital share and understatement of TFP growth. Therefore, this study has modified the conventional approach of calculating factor shares by taking account of net indirect taxes and market imperfections and used the modified approach to estimate TFP growth in 16 Taiwanese manufacturing industries during the period 1979–1999. The conclusion drawn by the study is that TFP growth was the driving force behind the success of Taiwan's manufacturing industries, although many of these industries experienced a sharp decline in TFP during the 1990s.     

How to Model a Child in School? A Dynamic Macrosimulation Study for Tanzania

Universal primary education is regarded as one of the key pillars of sustainable development. The positive influence of education on growth is supported by many empirical studies. However, the effects of education on labour supply, poverty reduction and welfare as well as subsistence agriculture are hardly traceable in an econometric set‐up, given the complex interactions and the long‐term nature of education. An economy‐wide dynamic simulation model provides a well‐suited toolkit to analyse the effects of increased school provision in these aspects and provides insights into the intertemporal aspects of the schooling decision of children. We develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly includes education and human capital allocation, and takes into account that the possibility of child labour increases the opportunity costs of human capital formation. In an application for Tanzania, we find that a large‐scale investment programme in education might have a negative effect on both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and high‐skilled labour supply in the short term but leads to higher GDP and welfare as well as significantly reduced child labour supply in the medium to long term.     

Effects of knowledge capital on total factor productivity in China: A spatial econometric perspective

The transformation of China into a knowledge based economy is one of the most intensively debated research issues in Economic Geography. The focus of this study is on effects of knowledge capital on manufacturing total factor productivity (TFP) in China through the lens of the regional knowledge capital model (KCM). The objective is to estimate the impact of region-internal and region-external knowledge capital — measured in terms of patents granted by the Chinese patent office — on TFP across Chinese regions. We derive a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) for empirical testing, using panel data on 29 Chinese regions for the years 1988–2007. The results indeed point to a shift of Chinese productivity growth to a more knowledge based one, statistically confirming the impact of knowledge capital on regional TFP after 1998. Furthermore, this shift is not only based on region-internal knowledge capital, but also on inter-regional knowledge spillovers.     

Technological factors and total factor productivity in China: Evidence based on a panel threshold model

This study investigates the effects of technological factors, including indigenous research and development (R&D) investments, technology spillovers coming from foreign direct investments, export, and import, on China's total factor productivity (TFP). Using provincial panel data of China, covering 30 provinces over the period 2000–2014, our results confirm that indigenous R&D investments play a leading role in promoting TFP. Linear analysis suggests that, except for export, the technology spillovers through openness are beneficial for TFP growth. However, a further discussion based on a panel threshold model suggests that the different behaviours of these technology spillovers are dependent on the technological absorptive capacity affecting factors, such as human capital and indigenous R&D investments. The human capital will strengthen the spillover effects of each technology spillover. However, R&D intensity initially tends to hamper their spillover effects. Once the R&D intensity exceeds a certain level, the negative spillover effect of export on TFP tends to be alleviated, and the positive spillover effect of foreign direct investment and import on TFP will increase.     

人力资本对我国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的影响——基于省际面板数据的非线性门槛回归技术

本文使用中国30个省份2003-2008年的面板数据,研究了不同人力资本水平下对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出对各地区全要素生产率的影响。实证结果说明:它们之间存在显著的人力资本双门槛效应。只有在人力资本跨越了10.5038这一门槛时对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应才显著存在,未跨越这一门槛值的省份,人力资本对对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的吸收有负面影响;而人力资本跨越50.4804的少数省份,对外直接投资渠道的逆向技术溢出对全要素生产率的正面影响略低。     

Health and Productivity: Panel Data Evidence from Ethiopia

Abstract: Neoclassical growth models and endogenous growth theories show the positive contribution of human capital to growth. Using household panel data (1994–2000) on individuals who reported their wages in urban Ethiopia, we estimated a relationship between health measures (i.e. proxied by height and BMI) and wages (which proxies productivity/growth). Our findings from the IV quantile regression estimates indicate that productivity is positively and significantly affected by education, height and BMI. The return to BMI is important both at the lower and upper end of the wage distribution. The return to height is significant only at the end of the wage distribution. The substantive content of the results (i.e. the high‐nutrition and high‐productivity equilibrium story) does not change even if we did not control for endogeneity of schooling. Non‐parametric evidence also supports the strong and positive relationship between productivity and our indicators of human capital.     

FDI、知识溢出与生产率增长——基于DEA方法和状态空间模型的经验研究

本文利用DEA方法对中国全要素生产率进行了测算,在此基础上建立国际知识溢出分析框架,检验了基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对全要素生产率的溢出效应。结果表明:国内知识资本和基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP增长起到显著的促进作用;通过对TFP进行分解发现,两者对技术进步促进作用明显,对技术效率影响微弱;采用状态空间模型进一步分析发现,于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP的贡献度在不断上升。     

Is working capital management value-enhancing through alleviating financial constraints? Evidence from Chinese non-listed firms

Financial factors have been found highly important in influencing firms’ real activities and in promoting aggregate growth. Yet, the linkage between finance and firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) has been overlooked in the literature. I fill this gap using 147,310 non-listed Chinese firms over the period 1999–2007 to estimate a TFP model augmented with working capital. I find that TFP is strongly and significantly associated with working capital for private and foreign firms, but not for SOEs. More specifically, an increase in working capital has a negative (positive) effect on TFP in firms with positive (negative) working capital. Furthermore, highly external financial constrained, highly internal financial constrained, under-developed institutional regions and small size private and foreign firms are more sensitive to working capital.     

Marketization,environmental regulation,and eco-friendly productivity: A Malmquist–Luenberger index for pollution emissions of large Chinese firms

Marketization requires individuals and firms to increase energy efficiency and improve environmental quality, and various levels of governments interested in environmental protection have adopted tough environmental regulations. This paper develops data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure unified efficiency at the firm level by introducing energy utilization and pollution emissions. A Malmquist–Luenberger efficiency model with undesirable output follows radial measurement by directional distance function type. We analyze green productive efficiency in relation to polluting emissions using a large dynamic panel dataset of 229,491 Chinese manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2012. We identify that marketization and environmental regulation both significantly facilitate green productivity. Further, our findings imply that both marketization and regulatory effects weakened from the tenth to the twelfth Five-Year Plans. Regarding effects across ownership type, green total factor productivity (TFP) growth of state-owned enterprises is significantly affected by regulation but not marketization. Private and foreign-owned firms are both significantly affected by marketization and regulation. Regionally, green TFP growth is positively associated with marketization and regulation in central China. East China’s green TFP growth is motivated by marketization, and West China’s green TFP growth is strongly driven by regulation.     

Call For Papers: The Eighth International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association

This paper provides empirical estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) trends in a sample of 17 APEC countries over the period 1975 to 1996. TFP growth is an important measure of an economy's performance and if measured correctly it can provide valuable guidance on issues related to the assessment of sustainable growth trends. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing sustainable growth trends. The measurement technique itself is regarded as a significant improvement over previous conventional measures of TFP growth. The results are very interesting. Japan, Thailand and primarily Indonesia and Malaysia are identified as countries exhibiting on average negative TFP growth rates in the 1975-1990 period. In all these countries as well as in South Korea and Taiwan the main cause of low TFP growth is a poor (negative) efficiency record. The average TFP growth rate for Japan and Malaysia is positive in the 1975-1996 period but the efficiency change component remains negative. In all these countries the main contributor to labour productivity growth is capital accumulation. Unlike previous studies we find no evidence of a poor TFP growth performance for Singapore. Furthermore, we estimate that most of Singapore's labour productivity growth is driven by efficiency change. Estimates of rates of convergence towards the frontier economy that is estimated (not assumed as in other studies) to be the US, are also reported.     

Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth?

Abstract: This paper revisits the debate on schooling and economic growth with particular reference to the case of sub‐Saharan Africa. Following the endogenous growth model developed by Lucas (1988) that considers human capital as one factor of production and schooling as a means of human capital accumulation, two results of schooling are explicitly stated: accumulation of privately owned and publicly owned human capital. By developing a growth estimating equation containing these two types of schooling results from the model and confronting it with empirical data, the hypothesis that schooling has got growth effect is tested. The analytic result suggests that in the indicated economies, for the period covered by the study (1966–2000), schooling that leads to accumulation of publicly owned human capital is associated with per capita income growth. Likewise, the analysis provides supporting evidence for the argument that primary schooling level is more associated with growth than other levels of schooling.     

Disparity in factor contributions between coastal and inner provinces in post-reform China

The paper discusses China's post-reform regional economic growth imbalance relative to input disparity in technology, physical and human capital. Financial sources and types of ownership are used to construct physical capital. Technology is measured by innovation investment, and human capital is constructed from schooling years per capita. The results show that domestic bank loans and foreign-owned enterprises are important in coastal provinces, while state appropriation and state-owned enterprises are important in inner provinces. Technology and foreign investment have a larger impact on output growth in coastal provinces. Human capital is endogenous for coastal provinces, but is exogenous for inner provinces.     

Human capital quality and the regional economic growth: Evidence from China

China's economic development has advanced from a high-speed to a high-quality growth stage in recent years. The optimization and upgrading of the economic structure require high-quality human capital to support an innovation-driven economy. In this paper, a general equilibrium model of human capital (Xiang & Yeaple, 2018) is applied to estimate the cognitive and non-cognitive productivities based on Chinese provincial-level macro-data and individual labor's micro-data from 2008 to 2017. The weighted power mean of cognitive and non-cognitive productivities helps calculate the provincial-level human capital quality index (HCQI), which provides a realistic estimate of human capital quality. We find that the improvement of the HCQI leads to convergence in economic growth in China's provinces. HCQI can help explain the differences in economic growth levels in different regions of China. Our study provides a constructive step in understanding cognitive and non-cognitive abilities and HCQI in China, which could help guide education investment policy in China and its provinces.     

金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率：来自中国省域的证据

文章将金融发展、对外贸易与全要素生产率整合在一个统一的分析框架中,考察了开放经济下金融发展在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,并进而促进全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。并基于这一结论,用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,证明了金融发展通过对外贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显。同时在实证检验中还发现,金融发展通过对外贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即存在“人力资本门槛”效应。     

Green total factor productivity: A re-examination of quality of growth for provinces in China

In this paper we try to assess the quality of growth for provinces in China over the period of 1997–2015. To do so we calculate a set of Green total factor productivity (or GTFP) indexes by incorporating environmental performance variables at the provincial level. A nonparametric approach (Directional Distance Function a la Chung et al., 1997) is adopted in the estimation. Furthermore, we apply bootstrapping method to correct estimation bias and obtain statistical property of the estimated indexes. The GTFP indexes estimated here demonstrate very different trends from the GDP growth rateand standard TFP indexes ignoring environmental outcomes. For the period of interests, when annual GDP growth rate was very high, no steady growth was found in TFP and GTFP, by contrast. The rankings of provinces differ significantly across measures of GDP growth, TFP and GTFP. In addition, our estimates of GTFP trends are also significantly different from findings by other papers of GTFP estimation (Hu et al., 2008; Wang et al., 2010) without bootstrapping procedure.