基于Hedonic模型的深圳房地产价格指数研究

为了反映房地产价格的真实变动情况,采用特征价格法建立了深圳市房地产价格指数模型,并采用实际的成交数据进行分析。通过对原始交易数据的修正,将不同品质的房产修正为同一品质的房产,使房地产价格指数的计算更加科学、客观。连续运行五年的房地产价格指数表明,基于特征价格法编制的房地产价格指数具有合理性和可行性。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices

Parametric specifications for hedonic price equations are estimated using a data set from Alameda and San Francisco Counties and are compared to estimates using a nonparametric technique called locally weighted regression, LWR. LWR permits flexible estimation of the hedonic's curvature at median attributes and is less sensitive than standard regression techniques to the influence of unusual observations. The technique also avoids imposing a single functional form across time and municipalities. The LWR estimates of municipality-specific hedonics are then used to obtain implicit prices for housing attributes and to derive municipality-specific price indices. The results of extensive diagnostic checks of our technique are also reported.     

大型水电站上网电价评价--增量空间法

我国水力资源丰富,水电装机比重日益增大,大型水电站的上网电价与电站、电网和社会各方的实际利益紧密相关。采用经莒期模型对上网电价进行测算,并提出用“增量空间验证法”对大型水电站上网电价是否合理进行评估。以某水电站为例,通过用经营期模型测算出的电价与用增量空间法算出的电价进行对比,评估用经营期模型测算的电价是否可行。     

Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation

This paper reports on research in which eleven alternative housing price indices are constructed for two Vancouver neighbourhoods for the period from 1957 to 1979. Three criteria for good indices are presented, and the eleven indices, as well as several government and industry indices are evaluated in accordance with those criteria. It is determined that, almost surprisingly, an index based on mean sales values performs well, as do several of the hedonic price equation based indices. Several policy implications of the analysis are then discussed.     

New Place-to-Place Housing Price Indexes for U.S. Metropolitan Areas, and Their Determinants

Housing prices vary widely from market to market in the United States. The purpose of this study is to (1) construct new place-to-place indexes of the price of housing, using the 1990 Census, and (2) analyze the determinants of housing prices, with a particular focus on the supply side determinants—regulatory and natural constraint—as well as the usual demand determinants.     

影响合纤价格的因素分析

针对目前我国合纤市场的现状,在实地调研和信息收集的基础上,分析了影响合纤价格的主要因素及变化趋势。     

On the Use of Spline Smoothing in Estimating Hedonic Housing Price Models: Empirical Evidence Using Hong Kong Data

Traditionally in estimating hedonic housing price functions, investigators use parametric models involving specific functional forms and a finite number of unknown parameters. Some investigators have questioned whether the underlying theory is capable of conveying sufficient information to enable a correct and successful specification of parametric models and have instead proposed the less restrictive semiparametric approach to the problem. In this paper, we illustrate how the technique of smoothing splines can be used to estimate hedonic housing price models. Smoothing splines are a powerful approach to the analysis of housing data as they are exceptionally flexible in their functional forms and provide a computationally tractable method even with a large number of explanatory variables. Our illustration takes the form of a rather limited, but very promising, application with Hong Kong data. In the forecasting comparison, the spline smoothing procedure outperforms the traditional parametric Box–Cox model in mean square error terms for out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that the distortion caused by underfitting the model is smaller for spline smoothing than for the kernel and k-nearest-neighbor semiparametric procedures.     

An Empirical Analysis of Hedonic Regression and Grid-Adjustment Techniques in Real Estate Appraisal

Multiple regression analysis has become increasingly popular when appraising residential properties for tax purposes. Alternatively, most fee appraisers and real estate brokers use the traditional sales comparison approach. This study combines the two techniques and uses multiple regression to generate the adjustment coefficients used in the grid adjustment method. The study compares the combined grid-regression method with ordinary regression and defines the market conditions under which each method is likely to be more effective. The grid-regression method is found to be more accurate for relatively homogeneous housing markets, and the multiplicative percentage adjustment method (MPAM) the preferred approach.     

试论供电企业负责人年度关键经营业绩指标的几种考核方法

国资委对中央企业实施了企业负责人经营业绩考核,这一举措延伸到了供电企业层次.本文探讨了供电企业负责人年度关键经营业绩指标考核的4种可选方法及其优缺点,并进一步分析了实施供电企业负责人年度经营业绩考核应注意的事宜.     

Multicollinearity and Reduced-Form Price Equations For Residential Markets: An Evaluation of Alternative Estimation Methods*

One of the problems that has plagued researchers in their estimation of reduced-form price equations for specific housing markets has been multicollinearity—the lack of statistical independence of the explanatory variables. This paper evaluates the suitability for structural analysis and prediction of stepwise regression and principal components regression as alternatives to the standard regression model in the estimation of equations with interdependent data. In general, the results of this study indicate that under conditions of multicollinearity principal components regression is the superior estimation technique.     

基于Hedonic模型的小区房价影响因素研究——以南京市鼓楼区为例

从小区房价的微观影响因素出发,分别从建筑特征、邻里特征、区位特征三个方面确定了10个特征价格变量,运用定量和定性相结合的方法,构建影响南京市鼓楼区小区房价的特征价格模型,并对回归结果进行检验和分析。结果表明:建筑年代、容积率、交通干道等级是影响小区房价弹性的最大因素;主要街道等级是影响小区房价的最主要微观因素。希望通过本文研究给房地产开发商、政府、消费者等在决策和选择上提供借鉴。     

Economic Effects of Racial Integration: An Analysis of Hedonic Housing Prices and the Willingness to Pay

This study evaluates household economic effects stemming from neighborhood racial integration in Oakland, California. To that end, housing market data are applied to estimate hedonic price and willingness-to-pay functions for neighborhood racial composition. Results of the analysis indicate the problematic nature of the constant willingness-to-pay assumption and suggest this standard method may underestimate the household economic effects of racial integration. The paper concludes with implications for neighborhood integration policy.     

港口设备评标报价评分方法研究

介绍港口设备招标评标过程中,投标报价评分的几种方法及其适用条件.     

关于不确定情况下净现值投资评价指标的探讨

文章对在不确定性情况下净现值（NPV）投资评价指标的有效性进行了探讨，提出在运用该指标评价项目时必须要考虑到风险的大小对项目决策的影响，并根据投资项目的统计特征。阐述了在此情况下该指标的计算。最后以实例进一步说明该计算方法的有效性。从而使项目的投资决策更为科学合理。     

管理者提升商数通用性测度指标的确立与模糊评价

内部提拔作为人力资源管理的一项重要内容经常被误操作，部分原因缘于组织在提拔管理者之前较少评估其提升商数，以往的胜任力研究虽然也在这方面做过一些工作，但非常零碎。为改变这一状况，本文做了一些探索性研究，集中表现在两个方面：一是找出并构建反映管理者提升商数的通用性指标体系；二是根据这些指标体系对管理者提升商数做出模糊评价。     

An Applied Econometrician's View of Large Company Performance

This paper contains a brief survey of recent empirical work on the performance of large companies. It tries to pull together the literature in the form of six stylized facts, illustrating them with data drawn from a single sample. The paper concludes by highlighting the issues which are thrown up for future work. These are: accounting for persistent heterogeneities between firms, accounting for the apparently erratic performance of many firms and, finally, moving away from hypothesis testing driven empirical agendas.     

A New Approach for Evaluation of Variance of Construction Project when no Existing Relevant Rate or Price

成本加利润原则已成为监理人确定“无适用或类似子目单价”的工程变更项目综合单价的主要原则,然而这种估价方法并未考虑承包商投标报价时自愿承担的风险,致使变更导致调价发生时承包商提出按照变更发生时市场价和定额价进行估价,从而将投标报价时承包商自愿承担的风险转移至业主方.通过对项目招标控制价和承包商投标报价的关系进行分析,提出量化承包人投标报价时承担风险的方法,即让利率的确定,并结合案例对“无适用或类似子目单价”的工程变更项目综合单价的确定方法进行了详细介绍.     

界定热电联产抽凝机组节能指标的建议

我国以热电比、全厂总热效率界定热电联产节能指标。随着我国火电机组经济性指标逐年提高,原制订的指标已偏离当前国内水平,故提出建议修订《关于发展热电联产的规定》（1268）号文中的热电联产节能界定指标。