互斥方案经济效果评价的方法

互斥方案的经济效果评价是寻求合理的和技术方案的基本方法，也是项目经济评价的重要组成部分，当前有一些技术经济专业人员对《方法与参数》中关于方案比较的某些规定存在一些疑义和模糊认识，分析其产生的原因，对于正确理解和掌握 规定从而有助于正确决策是具有重要意义的。     

远距离调水供水区运行方案评价和决策方法研究

远距离调水工程运行调度方案的评价和决策是一项重要工作。本文以某远距离调水工程为研究对象,对供水区运行调度方案的评价和决策方法进行研究。拟定3个方案,计算了供水区和受水区的运行调度结果,提出风险指标集和效益指标集,基于3个数学理论方法和1个评价模型,详细说明了评价和决策分析的4个主要步骤,通过逐步计算,最终给出了风险指标值、效益指标值的定量计算结果和3个方案的相对优先度。风险指标值、效益指标值、相对优先度的分析结果均表明:3个方案中,最优的是方案3,将其应用于供水区水库运行调度过程中,可以显著地降低风险,并增加效益。     

模糊决策方法在开滦唐山矿延深方案选择中的应用

过去我矿的延深方案评选中,采用的是方案比较法,即根据已知条件,列出技术可行的若干个不同方案,然后进行具体的技术分析和经济比较,从中选出最优方案。通常,设计方案的一些评价因素只能定性描述,难以定量表示。因此很难统一采用具体的评价数值来表示各方案的优劣。这样在最终方案的选择中设计人员的主观因素起很大作用,有时难免产生片面性,使所选择的不是最优方案。如采用模糊决策方法,可把一些定性因素变成定量因素,通过计算对每个方案都有了比较全面的综合评价数值,则可根据综合评价数值的大小来确定方案的优劣。     

基于模糊数的施工方案多属性决策方法

将基于模糊数的多属性决策理论应用于工程施工方案决策中,根据多个属性的估计值,结合决策者的偏好,通过综合评价,在若干施工方案中选出最优方案。考虑到在施工方案决策阶段对于属性特征值及属性权重值的估计带有一定的模糊不确定性,将属性特征值和属性权重值表示为梯形模糊数的形式,并且根据模糊集理论的表现定理得出各个施工方案的决策值。根据模糊数排序理论对不同施工方案进行排序并得到最优施工方案。论文为工程施工方案的决策提供了一种新方法。     

煤矿开拓方案选择的层次灰关联决策

本文从井巷工程、工业场地、场外公路、主要设备、开拓方式、井筒水文地质、到火车的距离等七个方面建立了煤矿开拓方案评价的指标体系,并利用层次分析法与灰关联决策相结合的方式进行煤矿开拓方案的选择,进而给出煤矿开拓方案选择层次灰关联决策的具体步骤,最后进行实例应用。     

机会成本法在互斥方案决策中的应用

企业管理经营过程中经常要对多个备选方案进行决策。在一般情况下，经营要列出所有方案并预测出每个备选方案的结果，进而对各影响因素间的相互作用予以充分考虑并做出决策。     

备选技术方案的分析与评价

通常决策者所面临的问题,是在若干个技术方案中对这些方案选择的分析,应能够突出各方案的优点,以便做出一个符合实际的比较。 为了说明一个技术方案是否有价值,应设定一系列反映决策者目标和特定意义的考察指标。这一步允许一个反映公司愿望和策略,所确定的优先等级带有主观性的评价。多数情况只用了有限个数的指标。如:单位建筑的造价,产品的等级,管理能力及生产水平等。 本文提出一种方法,它能将土木工程和建筑     

价值工程在建筑方案决策中的应用

随着我国现代化建设的发展,建筑管理工作日趋重要,如何结合造价及建筑的功能等因素对方案进行决策是一个值得研究的课题。价值工程是系统分析技术中的一个重要方法,是降低成本提高经济效益的有效技术,它通过对产品功能进行分析研究,正确处理功能与成本的关系,用最低的总成本实现产品的功能。本文结合实例来探讨价值工程在建筑方案决策问题上的应用。 在长沙市北区有一栋占地500m~2的四层办公楼,为框架结构,公司业务发展要求在此建一综合     

技术经济分析法在辅助选择装载机动力方案中的应用

工程机械的动力大量采用的是柴油机，但柴油机的故障率却占整机故障率之首，因此，选择柴油机的型号显得十分重要。为了评估动力方案的价值，衡量各柴油机动力优劣，为方案决策提供有效依据，笔者以柳IZL50C轮式装载机选用潍坊柴油机厂生产的WD61567G3系列斯太尔柴油机为例，在1999年初试用技术经济学中的方案评价方法，对当时可选柴油机进行分析如下。柴油机价格的技术定位由于各类型柴油机性能档次有较大改进，所带附件（如水箱）不同，有的性能优越可成本过高，有的经济性好但性能又有不足，因此，可采用技术经济中评价指标的指数化处…     

模糊熵值法在项目投资决策中应用

结合投资项目决策的特点,系统地分析了项目投资方案决策的主要影响因素,提出了方案评价的指标体系。运用模糊数学的相关理论及其应用,建立了方案决策的多目标模糊优选模型,并用熵值法确定了各指标的评价权重值。通过实例分析说明模型是可行的。     

房地产投资分析浅析

房地产投资分析是房地产投资决策的基础，所涉及的内容较多。章通过对消费、投资地域、资金筹集和投资项目4个方面分析，详细地阐述了影响房地产投资决策的各种主要因素，提出将房地产投资风险降至最低的建议。     

实物期权方法在房地产开发中的应用——用B-S模型计算等待期权的价值

实物期权作为一种指导投资决策的思维方法，在国外发展的较为成熟，尤其是用于资源开发型企业，本对如何将这种方法应用于房地产开发企业做一简单的介绍，在介绍实物期权的概念后先后从定性和定量的角度说明这个方法的应用。     

商业地产投资的实物期权特性及应用框架研究

商业地产开发投资中存在投资的不可逆性、外部环境的不确定性和决策的灵活性,因而具有实物期权特性。从确定要解决的问题、分析不确定性的来源、鉴别关键的不确定性因素、识别实物期权类型、构建期权定价模型、计算项目价值、检查计算结果和重新设计8个方面,构建了商业地产投资决策的实物期权分析框架。     

On Option-Pricing Models in Real Estate: A Critique

This paper considers the problems peculiar to options on real estate, because of the special set of institutional factors influencing real estate markets. It is intended to serve as a reply to Johnson and Wofford [15] as well as provide an overall critique of option-pricing models in a real estate context. Our major point is that a variety of real estate decisions, such as the abandonment decision, the option to refinance, or the option to exercise a contingent real estate purchase contract, may be modeled using option-pricing techniques. However, both the theoretical and institutional aspects of real estate markets must be taken into account in both developing and applying option models in a real estate context.     

Real Estate in an ALM Framework: The Case of Fair Value Accounting

This study examines the liability hedging characteristics of both direct and indirect real estate with the advent of fair value accounting obligations for pension funds. We explicitly model pension obligations as being subject to interest and inflation risk to analyze the ability of real estate investments in hedging the fair value of pension liabilities and to quantify its role in an asset liability management (ALM) portfolio. We find that the portfolio composition differs depending on the definition of liability return. When liability returns solely follow actuarial changes, the mean‐variance efficient portfolio allocations toward direct real estate and fixed income decrease compared to the asset‐only optimization. When accounting for nominal liability obligations, real estate offers hedging benefits against interest rates for short holding periods but not for long‐term institutional portfolios. The inclusion of inflation risk renders a limited role for direct real estate in an ALM portfolio, while indirect real estate obtains no allocation. Inflation is at the heart of the discrepancy between reported and predicted pension plan allocations. Once accounting for inflation, the projected allocations come close to reported ones.     

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.     

Real Estate Fund Openings and Cannibalization

This article examines the trade‐offs in launching new real estate funds, specifically open‐end, direct‐property funds. This investment vehicle, which is designed to provide the risk‐return benefits of private market real estate, is available to retail investors in a number of countries. At the same time, these funds are also subject to liquidity risk, because they hold an inherently illiquid asset in an open‐end structure. This format presents fund‐family managers with unique challenges, particularly with the decision to open new funds. The data consist of 2,127 German fund openings across 76 fund families in 12 asset classes over the 1992–2010 period. Including a wide range of asset classes allows for a comparison between real estate and other investment objectives. We find a substantial cannibalization effect across the existing real estate funds of a family, while we note the opposite effect—i.e., flows into existing funds increase following a fund opening within the same objective—for all other asset classes. Our analysis of fund opening determinants shows that inflows mitigate the cannibalization risk for new real estate funds. Additional evidence highlights the role of scale and scope economies in real estate fund openings. Overall, the results provide new insights into the relatively large size and small number of real estate funds when compared to mutual funds dedicated to other investment objectives.     

Fear,Shame and Guilt: Economic and Behavioral Motivations for Strategic Default

This study examines underwater primary resident homeowners to identify why some decide to strategically default while others do not. We find that realized shame and guilt are consistent with ex ante expectations. However, the financial backlash experienced by strategic defaulters is less than anticipated, causing strategic defaulters not to regret their actions. State‐specific bankruptcy exemption levels and real estate laws only marginally explain the decision to strategically default, partly because the decision to walk away from a mortgage is emotional, and partly because the implementation of these laws is uncertain and confusing to distressed borrowers. Rather, we find key strategic default drivers include the homeowner's expectation of future real estate price movements, frustration with the lender, moral evaluation of the decision to strategically default, loan knowledge, political ideology, gender, income and age.     

Workouts, Deep Pockets, and Fire Sales: An Analysis of Distressed Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of issues that relate to the management of distressed real estate assets. The paper examines the decision implications of the major characteristics of real estate assets and real estate markets in the light of information and incentive problems that emerge when assets fail to perform as anticipated. The paper focuses on the determination of commitments of additional resources to a troubled property, the identification of efficient holders of distressed assets, and the consideration of policies toward the disposition of distressed assets. The paper concludes that in many instances asset sales, rather than causing further destabilization as suggested by the fire sale image, are likely to contribute to reducing the costs associated with distress.     

Information and communication technology in the real estate industry: productivity,industry structure and market efficiency

This survey of changes in the real estate industry due to information and communication technology (ICT) covers three areas: (a) A brief survey of ICT applications in the property industry, (b) speculation about implications for market structure and productivity within the real estate industry, and (c) comments on the wider macroeconomic implications of these changes. Improvements in information and productivity may lead to important long-run changes in business processes and industry structure tending to favour larger firms and promoting specialization of functions. Changing the information structure of real estate decision systems could change system dynamics and improve allocative efficiency. On the other hand, under different institutional arrangements, better information could increase the amplitude of real estate cycles and destabilize economies.