De gevolgen van de directe prijsbeheersing voor de internationale handel

Summary This paper contains a theoretical analysis of how a maximum price being put on homogeneous commodities affects international trade if rates of exchange are fixed. The consequences of a calculation scheme for fixing prices of differentiated products are also investigated.A maximum price that is lower than the import price is an impediment to import. This leads to oscillations of the import price if demand in the importing country is sufficiently high. The maximum price has no influence if it is higher than the import price. A maximum price that is equal to the export price (which is independent of the supply of the exporting country) retards the decline of export that would occur in consequence of a rise in home demand or a rise in costs of production. As soon as the average revenue per unit of product exported exceeds the maximum price, suppliers will try to export as much as possible. Importation of substitutes is stimulated indirectly and exportation of substitutes is discouraged, whereas the opposite effects occur with respect to complementary goods, materials used in the production process, and goods for the production of which the same materials and factors of production are used.If demand rises, a calculation scheme used for price control will reduce imports and stimulate exports. The calculation scheme reacts only on rises in costs of production that are not recognized officially by the government: imports will be smaller, and exports higher, than in the case of a free determination of prices. Calculation schemes check the importation of substitutes and stimulate their exportation, whereas the opposite effects may occur with respect to complementary goods, or due to changes in the production.In case of a general control of prices when inflation prevails, the whole set of price effects will affect the balance of payments. However, the final result will be uncertain, since some price effects tend to enhance the surplus of the balance of payments whereas others tend to reduce it. At the same time, income effects may affect the balance of payments in the adverse sense.National price control impedes the optimum allocation of resources in an economic community. This is due to the fact that it distorts trade.     

中美贸易失衡的三元边际——基于广度、价格与数量的分解

本文探讨了中美贸易失衡的结构特点。本文首先创建了贸易失衡的三元分解框架,将贸易失衡分解为广度、价格与数量失衡;利用1992～2008年中美HS92版本六分位贸易数据分析了中美贸易失衡的三元边际。结论发现:中国对美国数量顺差,广度与价格却是逆差;这一结论对于不同技术和行业均成立。这说明中美分工格局中,美国占据高端,中国占据低端;美国出口少量、高价、多种类商品,中国出口大量、低价、少种类商品,这是中美贸易失衡的结构特点。这一结构特点反映了中美双方发展水平的差异,短期内很难改变。     

Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1–2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates confirm the persistence of the income asymmetry first noted by Houthakker and Magee, although in a slightly diminished form. One policy implication of these findings is that dollar depreciation—unaccompanied by a realignment of growth trends—is insufficient to substantially reduce the U.S. trade deficit. JEL no. F31, F41     

我国船舶进出口价格弹性分析

本文基于经济学中的弹性理论,测算了我国船舶产品的出口、进口价格弹性,充分研究价格对我国船舶贸易的影响程度。得出结论:我国船舶进口价格显著高于出口价格,出口价格弹性的绝对值较大,且波动明显,进口价格弹性的绝对值较小,波动不明显,并深入研究了造成船舶进出口价格弹性背离的原因,在此基础上,提出相应对策。     

能源价格冲击对中国贸易结构的传递效应——基于投入产出法的实证研究

本文利用与进出口价格相关联的投入产出模型,计算模拟了国际能源价格冲击对中国贸易结构的传递效应。结果表明,能源价格冲击提高了货物出口和进口比重,使货物、服务出口比例更加不合理。具体而言,对初级产品、其他工业品、机电产品、高新技术产品以及各类服务占货物或服务出口和进口的比重具有同方向的作用效果,出口比重提高,进口比重也提高,而反之亦然。虽然能源价格冲击恶化了出口结构,优化了进口结构,但长期而言弊大于利,对我国贸易结构调整起到一定的阻碍作用。     

中间品进口、制度环境与出口产品质量升级

文章基于2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关进出口贸易微观匹配数据,在地区制度环境存在显著差异的背景下研究中间品进口、制度环境与对中国制造业出口产品质量之间的关系。实证研究结果表明：（1）中间品进口通过"竞争效应"、"知识溢出效应"、"中间品质量效应"以及"中间品多元化效应"机制影响企业出口产品质量,但提升效果会因企业所有制、贸易方式、中间品进口来源国、技术复杂度不同而具有显著的异质性;（2）制度环境改善一方面可以直接提升出口产品质量,另一方面强化了中间品进口对出口产品质量的提升效应,中间品进口与制度环境在影响出口产品质量方面存在互补性;（3）文章进一步从动态视角考察了进口持续期对出口产品质量的影响,研究得出二者呈现"U"型关系,短期进口无法提升出口产品质量,持续进口以及适时进入可以显著提升出口产品质量。本研究为中国出口产品国际竞争力提升,改善区域制度环境提供了理论与现实支撑。     

中国纸和纸板出口价格的影响因素分析

基于2000—2020年中国纸和纸板出口相关数据，运用多元回归模型实证分析影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的因素。研究发现，废纸进口价格、其他竞争者价格、出口集中度、汇率是影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的关键因素。对中国3类主要出口品种的异质性分析显示，箱纸板出口价格的主要影响因素为废纸进口价格、资金成本、出口集中度、汇率，涂布印刷纸出口价格受到木浆进口价格、全球涂布印刷纸需求量、对外贸易依存度、汇率的影响，包装盒纸出口价格受到废纸进口价格、对外贸易依存度、汇率、环境保护的共同影响。基于此提出提升纸和纸板出口竞争力的对策建议。     

日本对外直接投资的贸易效应及其启示

对外直接投资的贸易效应是学界研究的一个重要课题,日本对外直接投资与贸易的密切关系也备受关注。本文将日本的主要贸易伙伴分为四组,实证分析日本对外直接投资的贸易效应发现:日本的对外直接投资是贸易互补型的,其对日本的进出口贸易具有明显的长期促进作用;日本的对外直接投资是引起其贸易顺差的一个重要因素,日本对美国等对日贸易逆差国的直接投资扩大了其与这组国家的贸易顺差;日本对NIEs、中国等的直接投资并不是导致日本产业空心化的主要原因。实证结论在利用对外直接投资带动出口贸易、减少贸易摩擦以及在对外转移产业时避免国内产业空心化等方面为我国的实践提供了借鉴。     

Sectoral Price Movements under the Yen Appreciation

This paper analyzes the movements of tradable goods prices in Japan. The import price indices and the export price indices are matched with the domestic wholesale price indices at the most detailed level available for Japan, and the pricing behavior in the yen appreciation period (1985–1995) is examined. In the import-side analysis, we investigate how far the price movements under currency appreciation deviate from the law of one price. We find that internal–external price differentials have surprisingly expanded for most of the products since 1985. For a number of commodities, the import prices do not decline as far as the exchange rate appreciates, and the domestic wholesale prices do not decrease as far as the import prices decline. Although the expanded price gaps cannot necessarily be interpreted as a result of deliberate trade barriers, they suggest that some sort of handicap is imposed on imported goods and the large fraction of rent generated by the yen appreciation is intercepted in the middle. In the export-side analysis, the relationship between the globalization of firms' activities and export pass-through is investigated. Our cross-sectional regression analysis indicates that the export path-through rates tend to be low when the value added ratios of foreign production of Japanese firms are high. Low export pass-through under currency appreciation is often interpreted as a result of firms' attempts to keep their foreign market share, but the globalization of firms' activities may be another important factor in lowering the pass-through.J. Japan Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 611–641. Department of Economics, Keio University, 2-15-45 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108, Japan.     

欧盟对华直接投资对中欧贸易的效应分析——基于欧盟、日本在华投资的比较

国际直接投资理论认为：国际直接投资对东道国贸易具有进口替代、出口创造和进口引致效应。本文通过分析欧盟对华直接投资对中欧贸易的效应后得出：欧盟对华直接投资对华出口创造效应强于进口引致效应，与日本对华FDI的贸易效应相反。对此，笔者通过比较欧盟、日本对华投资特点加以解释，以为中国调整FDI政策促进经济良性发展提出政策性建议。     

东道国基础设施质量对中国进出口贸易的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家的实证分析

基础设施建设是经济社会发展的重要支撑,对国家经贸关系进一步发展具有桥梁作用。基于“一带一路”沿线51个国家2011—2019年面板数据,构建拓展引力模型实证分析东道国基础设施质量分别对中国进口与出口的影响。研究发现：东道国基础设施质量会显著促进中国的进口与出口贸易,但对中国进口贸易促进作用强于出口,且东道国GDP增长促进了中国进口与出口贸易增加,其对中国进口贸易促进作用大于出口;而东道国与中国的地理距离对中国进口贸易限制作用大于出口,东道国与中国为邻国、与中国具有共同语言及签订自由贸易协定会推动中国对其进出口贸易增长。在此基础上,提出促进中国与沿线国家进出口贸易的对策建议。     

出口企业竞争强度是中国出口低价格的主要因素吗?

利用匹配的工业企业微观数据与中国出口六分位数据,本文实证分析了出口企业竞争强度对出口低价格的影响方向和影响程度。结论发现:尽管出口企业竞争强度降低了中国出口价格,但是其影响程度不到1%;相反,进口国价格水平这一"非中国因素"却解释了中国出口产品价格变化的50%以上。因此出口企业竞争强度以及中国自身行业特征并非中国低价出口的主因,这意味着获得"出口定价权"是解决中国低价出口的根本之道。     

人民币汇率、出口退税对加工贸易收支动态冲击的实证研究

2005年汇率改革后人民币迅速升值,而之后除2009年受金融危机影响外,中国加工贸易顺差不降反增;同时,出口退税迅速增加。为解释这一复杂现象,文章用VAR模型来实证汇率、出口退税、加工贸易需求对加工贸易收支的动态冲击效应。研究发现:对加工贸易收支贡献最大的是加工贸易需求,其次是出口退税和汇率;人民币贬值和出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易收支均有J-curve效应,出口退税增加短期内对加工贸易进口正向促进效应大于出口的正向促进效应,进而导致加工贸易收支恶化。结果表明:人民币升值对加工贸易收支改善作用有限,但会降低加工贸易进出口总额;加工贸易进口对出口退税的过度敏感,提示中国政府要防止出口退税骗税和出口商品香港一日游现象。     

企业异质性、地理距离与中国出口产品价格的空间分布

新一新贸易理论对企业异质性内涵有两类阐述,一类是企业生产效率（efficiency）的差异性,一类是企业产品品质（quality）的差异性;这意味着不同的出口产品价格（fob价格）空间分布特点,前者认为出口产品价格随着地理距离增加而减少,后者相反。本文利用中国对各国HS92版本六分位出口数据进行了经验分析,发现中国出口产品价格随着地理距离增加而减少;这说明中国出口企业实行低价竞销策略;改变中国企业的竞争策略成为中国出口贸易可持续发展的微观基础。     

异质性贸易成本与企业出口产品质量:机理与事实

文章基于Antoniades(2015)模型,将企业创新行为纳入企业产品质量模型,分析贸易成本变化对企业出口产品质量影响的微观机理,发现贸易成本上升对企业出口产品质量同时存在生产率门槛效应和创新抑制效应,生产率门槛效应会放大在位企业的生产率优势,促进企业出口产品质量提升;而创新抑制效应会削弱企业的创新水平,降低企业出口产品质量。采用中国微观企业数据检验相关结论发现:总体上,贸易成本上升显著的降低了企业出口产品质量,其中,贸易成本对劳动密集型企业和加工贸易企业的出口产品质量降低作用更大,而对资本密集型企业和一般贸易企业的降低幅度较小。中介效应的检验发现:贸易成本的生产率门槛效应和创新抑制效应同时存在,并且创新抑制效应更大,因此总体上,贸易成本会降低企业出口产品质量。     

Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach

Bangladesh has been liberalising its trade regime extensively since 1992 in order to achieve higher trade performance and GDP growth. However, despite the long period of liberalisation, imports are still growing faster than exports, increasing the trade deficit. Trade liberalisation is considered a crucial contributory factor. The paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the aggregate import in Bangladesh, using the ARDL Bounds Test approach with annual time series data from 1972–1973 to 2004–2005. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalisation through reduction of the import duty rate increases the aggregate import substantially in the short run, but insignificantly in the long run. Trade liberalisation using simplification of non-tariff measures shows a significant but low positive impact on the aggregate import in the long run. Liberalisation interaction with price decreases imports slightly hence improves the trade balance, while interaction with income increases imports slightly hence worsens the trade balance. An increase in imports is mainly stimulated by an increase in income. Moreover, higher income elasticity compared to price elasticity indicates that an effort to maintain imports at the desired level by increasing import duty could be counter balanced and ineffective. Therefore, a consistent policy to promote not only consumption of domestically produced products, but investment, production, and backward linkage industries is essential in order to improve the trade balance and GDP growth in Bangladesh.     

美元汇率对美国进出口商品价格传递率的实证分析

本文实证分析了美元汇率按美国总进出口价格、分段进出口价格、分类商品进出口价格的传递率。实证结果表明,无论美元升值还是贬值,美国的进出口价格指数都会下降,而且美国出口价格的传递率比同期进口价格的传递率要小得多,升值期的传递率也比贬值期的传递率要小;美元升值比贬值对美国经常账户赤字的纠正更有利。因此,建议美国实行美元适度升值的政策,而且要结合其他政策才能改善其巨额经常账户赤字。     

Liberalization of Russia’s trade with the European Union,BRICS, and Trans-Pacific Partnership countries

The general trade effects and changes in the commodity and geographical trade structures for Russia under the condition of integrating trade with countries of the European Union, BRICS and Trans-Pacific Partnership have been estimated in the article. It has been stated that it is preferable for the Russian economy to approach European Union countries in order to obtain the maximum values of the welfare effect and trade-creation effect, and to proportionally increase the export and import volumes with the BRICS countries. Based on the prolongation of the shortterm tendencies, the long-term challenges to the Russian economy and possibilities of liberalizing trade with the mentioned trade unions have been specified.     

中国服务贸易进出口结构特征研究

基于2000—2018年中国贸易进出口数据,将服务贸易与商品贸易进行对比分析,从进口和出口两个角度研究中国服务贸易结构变化特征,并与服务贸易发达国家进行比较分析.结果表明:中国服务贸易占总体贸易比重偏低,服务贸易逆差额不断扩大;中国服务贸易出口结构渐趋优化,服务贸易进口结构则呈现两极分化的不平衡发展态势,运输、旅游等传统服务贸易依旧占据主体部分.因此,应高度重视国内服务业发展对服务贸易的基础性作用,优化服务贸易产业结构,扎实提升服务贸易国际竞争力,拓宽服务贸易合作新空间.