International innovation and strategic initiatives: A research agenda

Despite the argument that leveraging the expertise of foreign subsidiaries to the global firm benefits the whole firm's competitive advantage, in the case of international innovation, such leveraging rarely takes place. We investigate this paradox, applying research on strategic initiatives to the context of international R&D. Developing a conceptual model on the basis of communication psychology, we analyse how the innovative expertise of R&D subsidiaries may be leveraged to benefit the global firm. Specifically, we determine six elements whose greater exploration can lead to a deeper understanding of how the innovation expertise of a foreign R&D subsidiary may be leveraged.     

Going multinational under exchange rate uncertainty

We analyze a model where an exporting firm competes a la Cournot in a foreign market. The firm faces exchange rate uncertainty and has the option to invest abroad. The paper contributes four results. First, real option pricing techniques are used to derive the optimal timing rule of the investment and the price of the firm and foreign competitors. Second, the sunk cost of entry into the foreign market introduces hysteresis in direct investment flows. We find that the degree of hysteresis grows with the number of firms in the industry. Third, we determine the conditions under which dumping may appear and the role of FDI in precluding this type of dumping. Fourth, tariffs have the well known FDI-inducing effect, more so in less competitive markets, and are more effective at deterring delocation. Furthermore, a tariff might have the effect of triggering dumping.     

R&D intensity for innovative and adaptive purposes in overseas subsidiaries: Evidence from Japanese multinational enterprises

This paper investigates the causes of R&D activities of overseas subsidiaries using firm-level panel data for Japanese multinationals. We distinguish between overseas innovative R&D (basic and applied research) and adaptive R&D (development and design) and examine how the intensity of each type of R&D is determined, using Amemiya Generalized Least Squares estimation. Our findings suggest that overseas innovative R&D aims at the exploitation of foreign knowledge, whereas adaptive R&D has no such aim. In addition, the size of the host country’s market positively affects both types, whereas geographic distance between the host and the home country has a negative impact. Finally, the parent firm’s knowledge is found to increase the size of overseas adaptive R&D but not innovative R&D. Based on a theoretical model, we interpret this evidence as showing that knowledge of the parent firm is not fully utilized in innovative R&D of its subsidiary.     

A competitive model of the informal sector

In developing nations, formal workers tend to be more experienced, more educated, and earn more than informal workers. These facts are often interpreted as evidence that low-skill workers face barriers to entry into the formal sector. Yet, there is little empirical evidence that such barriers are important. This paper describes a model where, in equilibrium, the characteristics of formal and informal workers differ systematically, even though labor markets are perfectly competitive. The informal sector emphasizes low-skill work, as in the data, because informal managers have access to less outside financing, and choose to substitute low-skill labor for physical capital.     

Why do transnational approaches to international innovation fail?

The transnational corporation paradigm is increasingly at odds with empirical findings regarding international innovation strategies. Analysing a longitudinal case study, we show that a firm's international R&D subsidiaries can be a powerful force that can shape strategy even more than headquarters. On the basis of a literature review that identifies factors and mechanisms by which the firm's subsidiaries are likely to exert this influence, we explore these factors and mechanisms by applying them to our case. Our findings show that international innovation strategies are unlikely to succeed if international R&D subsidiaries use their capabilities and market power to oppose their implementation.     

The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.     

Comparative advantage,demand for external finance,and financial development

This paper analyzes the effect of comparative advantage in international trade on a country's level of financial development. Countries with comparative advantage in financially intensive goods experience a higher demand for external finance, and therefore financial development. By contrast, financial development is lower in countries that primarily export goods which do not rely on external finance. We use disaggregated trade data to develop a measure of a country's external finance need of exports, and demonstrate this effect empirically. In order to overcome the simultaneity problem, we develop a novel instrumentation strategy based on the exogenous geographic determinants of trade patterns.     

Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970–2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that “leaning against the wind” is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.     

Capital structure and international debt shifting

This paper presents a model of a multinational firm's optimal debt policy that incorporates international taxation factors. The model yields the prediction that a multinational firm's indebtedness in a country depends on a weighted average of national tax rates and differences between national and foreign tax rates. These differences matter as multinationals have an incentive to shift debt to high-tax countries. The predictions of the model are tested using a novel firm-level dataset for European multinationals and their subsidiaries, combined with newly collected data on the international tax treatment of dividend and interest streams. Our empirical results show that a foreign subsidiary's capital structure reflects local corporate tax rates as well as tax rate differences vis-à-vis the parent firm and other foreign subsidiaries, although the overall economic effect of taxes on leverage appears to be small. Ignoring the international debt shifting arising from differences in national tax rates would understate the impact of national taxes on debt policies by about 25%.     

Dynamic market entry and the value of flexibility in transitional international joint ventures

The purpose of this study is to formalize the optimal choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. It is argued that incorporating a suitable treatment of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility related to an MNE's investment decision gives further insights into the expansion, dissolvement, and optimal timing of international joint ventures (IJVs). In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities. We allow for this by taking a three-step expansion strategy explicitly into account. The evolutionary process of the value of the foreign direct investment can be interpreted as a compound complex chooser option. The results suggest that uncertainty, size of equity share and future investment/divestment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment. The paper underscores the importance of modeling the dynamics of market entry and helps to refine the application of real options in the alliance context by providing a closed-form solution in continuous time to value the overall strategic flexibility.     

Capital structure choice and company taxation: A meta-study

This paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on the tax impact on corporate debt financing. Synthesizing the evidence from 48 previous studies, we find that this impact is substantial. In particular, the tax rate proxy determines the outcome of primary analyses. Measures like the simulated marginal tax rate (Graham, 1996) avoid a downward bias in estimates for the debt response to tax. Moreover, econometric specifications and the set of control-variables affect tax effects. Accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta-regressions, we predict a marginal tax effect on the debt ratio of about 0.27.     

Inequality and two decades of British tax and benefit reforms

Microsimulation methods are used to identify the contribution of tax and benefit reforms to the significant growth in UK income inequality since 1979. The total effect turns out to depend crucially on the counterfactual against which the reforms are assessed: compared with the alternative of pure price‐indexation, the total effect of reform is small; by contrast, compared with a counterfactual in which benefits rose in line with national income (historically the case before 1979), the effect is substantial – approximately half the total rise in income inequality is explained. The impact of reforms on inequality has varied significantly over time: income tax cuts in the late 1970s and late 1980s increased inequality; direct tax rises in the early 1980s and 1990s, together with increases in means‐tested benefits in the late 1990s, reduced it. The robustness of the results to sampling variation and to the measure of inequality used is also investigated.     

Tax Structures and FDI: The Deterrent Effects of Complexity and Uncertainty

This paper measures the distortionary and distributional effects of housing subsidies in the Netherlands. Its broad scope allows us to discuss the results in the light of the main justifications for subsidising housing, i.e. the merit–good argument, external effects and the distribution motive. Our measurements reveal some patterns of subsidisation that seem difficult to justify on these grounds. This applies especially to the differences between subsidisation of rental and owneroccupied housing and between mortgage– and equity–financed ownership. Moreover, the inelastic supply of housing in the Netherlands entails that subsidisation has only a limited effect on promoting housing quality.     

Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis

We investigate whether capital market imperfections constrain investment during an emerging market financial crisis. Both large currency devaluations and banking sector failures characterize recent crises. Although a currency devaluation should increase exporters’ competitiveness and investment, a failing banking system may limit credit to these firms. Foreign-owned firms, which may have greater access to overseas financing but otherwise face the same investment prospects, provide an ideal control group for determining the effect of liquidity constraints. We test for liquidity constraints in Indonesia following the 1997 East Asian financial crisis, a period when the issuance of new domestic credit shrank rapidly. Exporters’ value added and employment increased after the crisis, suggesting that they profited from the devaluation and had sufficient cash flow to finance more workers. However, only exporters with foreign ownership increased their capital significantly. Our results suggest that liquidity constraints greatly retarded domestic-owned manufacturing firms’ ability to take advantage of improved terms of trade. Specifically, compared to foreign-owned exporters they had resembled before the crisis, after the crisis domestic-owned exporters had more than 20% lower employment and capital and more than 40% lower value added and materials usage.     

Capital structure with risky foreign investment

Firms facing significant business risks have incentives to mitigate the costs of these risks by adjusting their capital structures. This paper investigates this link by analyzing the exposures of multinational firms to political risk. The evidence indicates that returns on investment in politically risky countries are more volatile than returns elsewhere. Multinational firms reduce their leverage in response to these political risks: a one standard deviation increase in foreign political risk is associated with 3.5% reduced leverage. The effect of foreign political risks on leverage is most pronounced for firms in industries whose returns are most susceptible to political influence.     

A twelve-area model for the equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate

This paper investigates the equilibrium CNY/USD nominal exchange rate during 1976-2008. We extend for the first time the five-area FABEER model to a twelve-area TABEER model for China. All parameters are estimated with allowance for endogenous structural breaks. Our investigation of the sustainable current account highlights macroeconomic factors that determine savings and investment in the medium-term. We find that all cointegration relationships are subject to structural breaks. The equilibrium nominal rate was overvalued in most years from early 1990s until 2003. It has been strongly undervalued during 2004-2008. We further compute misalignment rates using a sustainable current account of 3%. Our findings suggest such exogenous input leads to results biased towards larger undervaluation.     

Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects

This paper examines the broader effects of the US financial crisis on global lending to retail customers. In particular we examine retail bank lending in Germany using a unique data set of German savings banks during the period 2006 through 2008 for which we have the universe of loan applications and loans granted. Our experimental setting allows us to distinguish between savings banks affected by the US financial crisis through their holdings in Landesbanken with substantial subprime exposure and unaffected savings banks. The data enable us to distinguish between demand and supply side effects of bank lending and find that the US financial crisis induced a contraction in the supply of retail lending in Germany. While demand for loans goes down, it is not substantially different for the affected and nonaffected banks. More important, we find evidence of a significant supply side effect in that the affected banks reject substantially more loan applications than nonaffected banks. This result is particularly strong for smaller and more liquidity-constrained banks as well as for mortgage as compared with consumer loans. We also find that bank-depositor relationships help mitigate these supply side effects.     

The interest group theory of financial development: Evidence from regulation

We use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade, capital account, product market, and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test Rajan and Zingales’s (2003) interest group theory of financial development. In line with the theory, we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization. This result is robust to the use of different data frequencies (annual, 5-year intervals), estimation methods (OLS, 2SLS, system GMM) and a check for non-linear effects. However, in contrast to the theory, we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization.     

Inventories, employment and hours

This paper develops a model that integrates inventory and labor decisions. We extend a model of inventory behavior to include a detailed specification of the role of labor input in the production process, distinguishing between employment, hours and effort per worker. We estimate jointly the Euler equations for inventories and employment, a labor compensation schedule, and an hours requirement function with the cross-equation restrictions imposed. The econometric results shed light on several important topics, including the shape of the marginal cost of output, the role of labor hoarding as an explanation of pro-cyclical productivity, and the persistence of inventory stocks.     

Stock exchange business models and their operative performance

In recent years stock exchanges have been increasingly diversifying their operations into related business areas such as derivatives trading, post-trading services and software sales. This trend can be observed most notably among profit-oriented trading venues. While the pursuit for diversification is likely to be driven by the attractiveness of these investment opportunities, it is yet an open question whether certain integration activities are also efficient, both from a social welfare and from the exchanges’ perspective. Academic contributions so far analyzed different business models primarily from the former perspective, whereas there is only little literature considering their impact on the exchange itself. By employing a panel data set of 28 stock exchanges for the years 1999–2003, we seek to shed light on this topic by comparing the technical efficiency and factor productivity of exchanges with different business models. Our findings suggest that exchanges that diversify into related activities are mostly less efficient than exchanges that remain focused on the cash market. In particular, we find no evidence that vertically integrated exchanges are more efficient. However, they seem to possess a substantially stronger factor productivity growth than other business models. We presume that integration activity comes at the cost of increased operational complexity which outweigh potential synergies between related activities and therefore leads to technical inefficiencies. Our findings contribute to the ongoing discussion about the drawbacks and merits of vertical integration.