通道费的规制困境:买方势力抑或市场规则

近年来,通道费是零售商与供应商矛盾冲突的焦点。2006年实施的《零售商供应商公平交易管理办法》并没能够达到规范和降低通道费的预期效果,通道费的"双边市场特性"对传统的规制政策提出了一些挑战。通过分析通道费规制的"水床效应",以解释政府的规制困境;基于双边市场理论,构建通道费问题的双边市场框架,得出通道费是零售商平衡双边用户需求、内部化网络外部性的一种市场规则的结论,并以此进一步探讨通道费的规制原则。     

Nonconvergent Electoral Equilibria under Scoring Rules: Beyond Plurality

We use Hotelling's spatial model of competition to investigate the position‐taking behavior of political candidates under a class of electoral systems known as scoring rules, though the model also has a natural interpretation in the firm location context. Candidates choose ideological positions so as to maximize their support in society. Convergent Nash equilibria in which all candidates adopt the same policy were characterized by Cox (1987). Here, we investigate nonconvergent equilibria, where candidates adopt divergent policies. We identify a number of classes of scoring rules exhibiting a range of different equilibrium properties. For some of these, nonconvergent equilibria do not exist. For others, nonconvergent equilibria in which candidates cluster at positions spread across the issue space are observed. In particular, we prove that the class of convex rules does not have Nash equilibria (convergent or nonconvergent) with the exception of some derivatives of Borda rule. We also look at “two‐party” equilibria. Implications for the firm location model are discussed.     

交通信号灯与拍卖机制——对市场与制度关系的一个案例研究

肖特的交通博弈模型表明,当还不具备足够的技术条件有效降低交易成本的情况下,更为可行的制度可以成为价格机制的替代,然而其模型并不足以证明制度与市场价格机制的替代关系。现代技术条件使得十字路口价格机制的实现成为可能,因此也表明了制度与市场价格机制并非简单的替代关系。模型的发展演变反映了奥地利学派的自发市场秩序观更为具有解释力。     

股票市场收盘集合竞价对市场有效性的影响——来自深圳证券交易所的证据

笔者基于深圳证券交易所于2006年7月1日收盘采用集合竞价事件,选择事件日前后两个窗口期的交易数据,运用价格同步法分析方法,研究了收盘集合竞价对市场有效性的影响。研究发现:收盘采用集合竞价后,市场交易量、波动性和相对买卖价差均有显著下降,市场模型的解释力显著提高;第二阶段和第三阶段回归方程中的关键参数检验,以及构造的虚拟事件的稳健性检验结果均证明收盘集合竞价显著促进了市场有效性。     

Central Wage Setting under Multiple Technological Equilibria: A Mechanism for Equilibrium Elimination

Instituting an initial round of centralized wage setting before an ultimate round of decentralized wage bargaining may actually raise employment. A general multi–equilibrium model is set up with strategic complementarities in the implementation of a new technology through aggregate demand spillovers. In this model, centralized wage setting to establish an outside option wage, which is selectively binding on lo–tech firms, may achieve the "big push" to a hi–tech general equilibrium with higher employment, output, wages and profits.     

Transactions Costs in Tradable Permit Markets: An Experimental Study of Pollution Market Designs

Regulators' choices of market rules and permit allocations influence tradable emission permit programs. This paper uses laboratory experiments to study how transaction costs interact with permit allocations to determine the cost-effectiveness of emissions abatement. With positive transaction costs, in theory the initial distribution of permits can affect both abatement costs and equity. Consistent with theory, we find that with declining marginal transaction costs prices deviate less from the efficient level if the misallocation of the initial permit distribution is greater, and the deviation from efficient prices does not vary with the initial permit endowment when marginal transaction costs are constant.     

Life-Cycle Consumption under Rational Expectations: Some Australian Evidence*

Using Australian data, this note tests the srochastic implications of Hall's (1978) national-expectations life-cycle consumption model. The strong version of the hypothesis can only be rejected using lagged values of the change in the unemployment rate and a particular measure of disposable income.     

Alternative Energy Strategies for the United Kingdom Revisited: Market Competition and Sustainability

Energy and electricity demand forecasts for Britain made in the late 1970s by a research team from the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), under the leadership of Gerald Leach, are assessed with the benefit of hindsight. These researchers broke the energy market down into some 400 end-use, fuel, and appliance categories. They then assessed the potential for energy saving in physical terms, using available technical fixes, for each category. The resulting “bottom-up” projecitons of energy consumption departed from the historic correlation with economic growth, or “top-down” approach. It enabled the IIED team to postulate an alternative, low energy strategy for the United Kingdom to 2025. This study subsequently had a great influence on energy planning elsewhere in the industrialized world, although it was not without its detractors.The IIED energy demand projections are reviewed in the context of both the greatly increased market competition in the UK from 1979 onward, and the need to achieve sustainable development. It is shown that, although total primary energy consumption in the mid-1990s was much in line with the forecasts in the Leach report, the reasons for this and the structure of the newly competitive energy market are quite different from that originally postulated. However, the critics of the IIED team did little better. Long-term energy projections (25–50 years) as one-off, static exercises appear to be of little value for energy planning purposes. They can, as in the case of the Leach report, be a great source of data and ideas, as well as stimulating debate about new strategies. It is argued that rolling projections using a rather broad, sectoral approach that is continuously updated at not greater than five-year intervals, in a similar manner to econometric forecasts, are more useful for energy planning purposes.     

走出政府与市场二元对立的思维误区

传统的二元关系论把政府和市场作为完全平行的、对立对等、非此即彼的两个极端,这种二元对立的思维误区对现代社会的发展产生重大障碍。在现代社会中,政府和市场都是不可或缺的组成部分,我们需要超越二元论,走出二元对立的思维困境,建立不完善的政府和不完善的市场之间的有距离的"分工协作"关系。     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

Policy Consequences of Multiple Equilibria and the Indeterminacy of Economic Outcomes in a Boundedly Rational World: Closing the System with Non-Economic Variables1

In the conventional economic wisdom, the notion of unique equilibria that are efficient and Pareto optimal dominates the modeling discourse. Hebert Simon proposed an alternative analytical framework where the notion of multiple and sustainable equilibria is critical. Multiple equilibrium is the crucial stylized fact of economic life that requires better understanding and modeling. Of particular significance, Simon touched on the importance of institutions and differential power relationships in affecting economic outcomes. But this modeling approach was not well developed by Simon. Following from his contributions, further develop the notion of multiple equilibria especially in the realm of production with an emphasis on x-efficiency theory. I bring to bear the importance of institutional parameters (including power relationships), culture, norms, ethics, and moral sentiments to the determination of economic outcomes. In the model developed here, boundedly rational decision-makers’ choices are contextualized and constrained by complex environmental factors. No one choice is either inevitable or economically efficient. A multiplicity of outcomes is possible and sustainable inclusive of those that are suboptimal. Much depends on individual preferences and institutional design. This has significant implication for institutional design and policy.     

Technical Efficiency under Alternative Regulatory Regimes: Evidence from the Inter-war British Gas Industry

From 1920 until nationalization, privately owned gas companies in Britain were regulated under one of three systems: the maximum price, the sliding scale, or the basic price system. In effect, the industry was the subject of a remarkable experiment in regulation. Hitherto, there has been no empirical analysis of the incentive properties of the regimes applied. This paper attempts such an investigation by using data envelopment analysis to estimate the relative efficiency of a sample of undertakings under each system. Undertakings operating under the basic price system are found to be more efficient which suggests that this form of regulation was most effective in the industry at this time.     

SOE Reform under Oligopolistic Market Structure: The Optimal Choice of State Shares

This paper examines the effect of the change of state shares in a state-owned enterprise (SOE) on the efficiency of the whole society and the payoff of the government. This issue is addressed by setting up a mixed oligopolistic competition model and dividing the analysis into two cases: closed economy and open economy. The basic results are as follows: If the relative production efficiency of an SOE is too low, complete state ownership is not optimal, and privatization will be a necessary step; however, if the relative production efficiency of an SOE is not too low, complete privatization is not optimal both for the government and from the perspective of social welfare. The results can, to a certain extent, provide theoretical support to the governments idea on the SOE reform. Translated from Economic Research Journal, 2004, 1 (in Chinese)     

中国地方政府间竞争下的区域市场整合

与传统文献的视角不同,本文从发达地区的角度出发,在地方政府间竞争的框架下分析了区域市场整合的成本与收益。文章认为,地区收入差距是阻碍市场整合的决定性力量,正外部溢出效应是推进市场整合的决定性力量,而中央政府对地方官员的考核机制则会对这种力量的对比和权衡产生重要的影响。中央政府可以通过采用不同的政绩考核方法或在相同的政绩考核方法下采取不同的措施来提高市场整合的程度进而促进全国统一大市场的形成。     

资产的理性定价模型和非理性定价模型的比较研究--基于中国股市的实证分析

本文以 1 995年 2月— 2 0 0 2年 6月深沪两市A股上市公司为样本 ,考察和对比三个定价模型———CAPM、三因素模型和特征模型。实证研究发现 :(1 )中国股市存在显著的“账面市值比效应”(BMEffect)和“规模效应”(SIZEEffect) ,但对于小公司则不存在“1月份效应” ;(2 )三因素模型比CAPM能更好地描述股票横截面收益的变化 ;(3 )基于“股票横截面收益是由公司特征决定”的非理性定价理论的特征模型不成立 ,而基于“股票横截面收益是由风险因素决定”的理性定价理论的三因素模型成立。这些发现说明 ,账面市值比和公司规模这二个变量代表的是一种“风险因素” ,并非“特征因素” ,因此中国股票横截面收益的变化取决于风险因素 ,而非特征因素。作者认为 ,导致上述结果的主要原因是中国股市长期的同涨同跌特征。     

资源-市场双重约束下的节俭创新行为:机理与案例

以比亚迪和罗技两家公司为案例,运用多案例比较分析方法研究资源、市场双重约束下的节俭创新行为。研究显示:成本创新、更优创新与节俭创新在技术、市场和产品上有很大差异;节俭式创新模式可以更好、更优、更低价格的产品和服务满足中低收入群体的需求。     

寡头竞争情形下的国企改革--论国有股份比重的最优选择

本文通过构建一个混合寡头垄断竞争的博弈模型 ,分别就封闭经济和开放经济的情形 ,探讨国企在背负一定的社会性负担的条件下 ,国企内部国有股份比重的变化如何影响整个社会的福利以及政府的支付。我们的基本结论是 :在国企相对生产效率很低的情况下 ,必须对其进行私有化改革 ;但是 ,如果国企的相对生产效率不太低 ,完全的私有化并不能最大化社会总体福利或政府支付。我们的基本结论可为政府当前国企改革的政策思路提供一定的理论支持。