TESTING FOR PRO-POORNESS OF GROWTH, WITH AN APPLICATION TO MEXICO

This paper proposes techniques to test for whether growth has been pro-poor. We first review different definitions of pro-poorness and argue for the use of methods that can generate results that are robust over classes of pro-poor measures and ranges of poverty lines. We then provide statistical procedures that rely on the use of sample data to infer whether growth has been pro-poor in a population. We apply these procedures to Mexican household surveys for 1992, 1998, and 2004. We find strong normative and statistical evidence that Mexican growth has been absolutely anti-poor between 1992 and 1998, absolutely pro-poor between 1998 and 2004 and between 1992 and 2004, and relatively pro-poor between 1992 and 2004 and between 1998 and 2004. The relative assessment of the period between 1992 and 1998 is statistically too weak to lead to a robust evaluation of that period.     

基于信息的双重危机模型及其在东亚危机中的应用

由于近来在新兴市场国家发生的一系列货币危机都同时伴随着银行危机的发生,要全面地理解这些货币危机,我们需要将具有微观基础的银行部门明确地纳入到货币危机的分析模型中去.该文通过应用基于信息的银行挤兑模型,建立了一个双重危机模型,并对诸如经济基本面的脆弱如何导致双重危机,以及银行危机和货币危机如何相互作用等问题,做出了内生化的解释.模型抓住了最近新兴市场货币危机的本质特征,并与最近东亚危机的经验事实非常符合.     

非参数成本前沿模型与中国工业增长模式研究

本文创建了面板数据下的非参数成本前沿模型框架,对转轨期间中国大中型工业的成本变化进行分解与分析。研究发现经济全球化、FDI、产权变革和有序竞争促进中国工业的前沿技术进步和资源配置效率提高,推动中国工业增长由粗放型向集约型转变。同时,行业间日益加大的技术效率差距已经对增长模式转变构成挑战。     

EQUITY-SENSITIVE INDICATORS OF LIVING STANDARDS WITH AN APPLICATION TO NORTHERN IRELAND

The level of a region's achievement with respect to a particular outcome is usually measured by the mean value of that outcome. This, however, ignores the fact that the distribution of that outcome, between population or geographical subgroups in that region, may be unequal: in order to reflect this inequality, ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators make a downward adjustment to the mean value of the outcome. This paper extends the notion of ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators which take cognisance of inter‐group inequality, to ‘equity‐sensitive’ indicators which paid heed to intra‐group inequality. It constructs – using data from a Northern Ireland survey into poverty and social exclusion conducted in 2002/2003 –‘equity‐sensitive indicators’ of living standards in Northern Ireland. These take account of both the average level of the standard of living and also inequality in these levels between groups, and between persons in these groups.     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.     

MEASURING THE COST OF LIVING INDEX,OUTPUT GROWTH,AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN THE RETAIL INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION TO JAPAN

This study applies a framework that enables one to estimate quality, exact cost of living (COL) indexes, and output growth for the retail industry. The framework is based on discrete choice theory, in which product differentiation and quality change are explicitly modeled. For illustration, the framework is then applied to the Japanese retail industry. The estimated quality index shows that, between 1985 and 1999, Japanese retail services quality improved, and the estimated COL index declined monotonically. Furthermore, the results from growth accounting suggest that ignoring both differentiation in the retail services market and changes in service quality may downwardly bias estimated output and productivity growth.     

A NOTE ON COMPUTATION OF THE DOUBLE-HURDLE MODEL WITH DEPENDENCE WITH AN APPLICATION TO TOBACCO EXPENDITURE

This note shows how the sample likelihood of the full double-hurdle model with dependence can be reformulated to allow estimation with standard econometric software. An illustrative example is provided, using data on tobacco expenditure by households in the 1984 UK Family Expenditure Survey.     

POVERTY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH APPLICATION TO CÔTE D'IVOIRE

This paper explores the relation between economic growth and poverty, and develops the methodology to measure separately the impact of changes in average income and income inequality on poverty. The paper also provides a link between the growth rates in various sectors of the economy and the total poverty. The methodology proposed is applied to the data taken from the Côte d'lvoire Living Standards Survey conducted in 1985.     

A HYBRID DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO PERSONAL COMPUTERS

In this article, I consider a new discrete choice model of differentiated product demand that distinguishes a brand‐level differentiation from a product‐level differentiation. The model is a hybrid of the random coefficient logit model of Berry et al. (Econometrica 63 (1995), 841–90) and the pure characteristics model of Berry and Pakes (International Economic Review 48 (2007), 1193–1225) and describes markets where firms offer multiple products of different qualities under the same brand name. I compare the hybrid model with existing models using data on personal computers. Using the estimates of the hybrid model, I also provide empirical evidence that firms reposition their brands in a postmerger market.     

CONSTANT WEALTH NATIONAL INCOME: ACCOUNTING FOR WAR DAMAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE NETHERLANDS, 1940–45

The issue of the proper way to address and document crisis and disaster in the national accounts is brought into focus by analyzing a practical case: the damage caused by the Second World War as discussed at a 1945 Paris reparations conference. It is concluded that "what if" damage e.g. output not produced due to the war should not be included in the national accounts, but factual damage should. The method by which factual damage should be included must then be decided. The option of just showing the damage in the reconciliation accounts is rejected. Instead the introduction of an additional income concept into the accounts, constant wealth national income is proposed. This Hicksian concept deducts from standard national income the damage to all produced goods lasting longer than a year. The concept is illustrated with guesstimates for the Netherlands, 1940–45. Finally, by way of an illustration, the paper employs 1945 estimates of damage in the Netherlands in order to arrive at a constant wealth national income for 1940–45. It is shown that, in 1938 prices, constant wealth national income is very much lower than standard national income and thus far better reflects the decline in prosperity during these years.     

GENERALIZED OLIGOPOLY DERIVED DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO TAX INDUCED ENTRY*

Equations are derived for the factor demand of an N firm oligopoly for fairly general market demand curves and production functions. Free-entry is then introduced and it is shown that this may either raise or lower derived demand elasticity. This result is then applied to show that a unit production tax may encourage entry and so cause larger changes in price and quantity in the short run than the long run.     

IN SEARCH OF AN OPTIMAL DEBT RATIO FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper extends the work of Barro (1979), Eisner (1992), foines (1991), Sawhney and DiPietro (1994), and others and examines whether an optimal debt ratio exists that will maximize economic growth. The growth rate of real GDP is specified as a function of the debt ratio, the debt ratio squared, the growth rates of labor employment, capital services, money stock, and a trend variable. The sample ranges from 1960 to 1991. Hypothesis tests show that economic growth and its determinants, including the debt ratio are cointegrated and have a long-run stable relationship. Results also indicate that the optimal debt ratio is 38.4 percent for debt held by the public and 48.9 percent for total debt. Thus, the current (1993) debt ratios of 50.9 percent for the debt held by the public and 68.2 percent for total debt are far greater than the desirable levels.     

TAX DATA FOR WEALTH CONCENTRATION ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO SPANISH WEALTH TAX

As recent studies in different countries show, tax data offer the opportunity to estimate income or wealth shares for the upper income groups. However, several critical points must be considered in order to avoid misleading conclusions: the interpolation technique used, legal amendments, and tax fraud. In this note we take Spanish wealth tax as a case study to assess the importance of these factors, and compare our results with those obtained by Alvaredo and Saez (2009 ). Although the results of the two analyses are very similar, our approach complements theirs by offering a more precise treatment of the correction of fiscal underassessment and tax fraud in real estate, which is the main asset in Spaniards' portfolios.     

TESTING STRICT STATIONARITY WITH APPLICATIONS TO MACROECONOMIC TIME SERIES

We propose a model‐free test for strict stationarity. The idea is to estimate a nonparametric time‐varying characteristic function and compare it with the empirical characteristic function based on the whole sample. We also propose several derivative tests to check time‐invariant moments, weak stationarity, and pth order stationarity. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate excellent power of our tests. We apply our tests to various macroeconomic time series and find overwhelming evidence against strict and weak stationarity for both level and first‐differenced series. This suggests that the conventional time series econometric modeling strategies may have room to be improved by accommodating these time‐varying features.     

DISCRIMINATING SHORT AND LONG MEMORY IN FINITE SAMPLES USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO GROWTH CONVERGENCE

The standard linear model where u_t is generated from an ARFIMA process, is considered. The sensitivity of the predictor and sensitivity of variance estimates of the linear model to long memory are investigated by constructing the statistical measures B_L/S and D_L/S , respectively. B_L/S and D_L/S is interpreted as a sensitivity measure for the long‐memory process without the short‐memory effects. As an application, the memory characteristics of per capita GDP of 30 countries are investigated from the Maddison GDP dataset. It is found that per‐capita GDP exhibits long memory characteristics, and the long‐run growth estimates are sensitive to the long memory characteristics.