The impact of central clearing on counterparty risk,liquidity, and trading: Evidence from the credit default swap market

This paper examines the impact of central clearing on the credit default swap (CDS) market using a sample of voluntarily cleared single-name contracts. Consistent with central clearing reducing counterparty risk, CDS spreads increase around the commencement of central clearing and are lower than settlement spreads published by the central clearinghouse. Furthermore, the relation between CDS spreads and dealer credit risk weakens after central clearing begins, suggesting a lowering of systemic risk. These findings are robust to controls for frictions in both CDS and bond markets. Finally, matched sample analysis reveals that the increased post-trade transparency following central clearing is associated with an improvement in liquidity and trading activity.     

Monetary transmission and bank competition in the EMU

The introduction of the euro has led to renewed attention for monetary transmission in the European Union. This special issue of the Journal of Banking and Finance includes papers that contribute to the development of both the theory and empirical applications of the monetary transmission channel that assumes various types of imperfections. The issue includes papers that can best be described by the credit view and studies on concentration and competition in the European banking industry. This introduction positions the papers in this active field of research.     

Interaction of market and credit risk

Experience during the financial crisis illustrates that the integrated measurement and management of different forms of risk remains a challenge for industry practitioners, researchers and financial supervisors alike. In the context of related literature, this article summarizes new research on the interaction of market and credit risk and implications for risk management that is presented in this special issue. The research covered highlights in particular the errors that can occur in the aggregation of the two types of risk and the strong relationships between them that suggest caution in the use of pragmatic distinctions between them. The article also touches on some research-based lessons for supervisory policies and suggests some directions for future research.     

Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns

Beginning with Banz (1981), I review 30 years of research on the size effect in equity returns. Since Fama and French (1992), there has been a vigorous, ongoing debate on whether the size premium is a compensation for systematic risk. Since the late 1990s, research on the size effect has been characterized by two developments that are seemingly contradictory. At last, theoretical models have emerged in which the size effect arises endogenously as a result of systematic risk. However, recent empirical studies assert that the size effect has disappeared after the early 1980s. In this review, I address this disconnect between recent theoretical and empirical research.     

Detecting abnormal credit union performance

Credit unions are an important financial intermediary, but little credit union research is done. A primary reason for the lack of research is the cooperative nature of the industry, making traditional methods of detecting abnormal performance inappropriate. This paper proposes two methods of detecting abnormal performance, one parametric, the other non-parametric. Instead of testing the efficiency of the institution, this paper proposes testing the return vector, as indicated in the theoretical objective function of the member. Simulations demonstrate that both methods are correctly specified and powerful.     

我国机动车辆保险代位追偿清算模型研究

近期,我国机动车辆保险理赔中的"无责免赔"问题引起了社会广泛关注,随之而来的代位追偿案件也将引发保险公司之间的账务清算支付,但我国目前尚未建立行业统一的机动车辆保险清算系统。本文说明了我国车险业务快速发展过程中消费者理赔问题,分析了代位追偿及建设我国行业清算体系的必要性和重要意义,借鉴国内外金融业清算体系的成熟案例,提出了构建我国机动车辆保险代位追偿清算模型,为提高行业效率、优化保险公司之间的清算流程提供有力保障。     

Regression Analysis v. Ratios in the Cross-section Analysis of Financial Statements

The assumption that the calculation of a ratio generates a useful number is widespread among analysts. The recent literature on financial statement analysis has highlighted this assumption and raised doubts about its validity on both theoretical and empirical grounds. This paper aims both to summarise and extend this discussion. An examination of the literature is followed by empirical work based around UK data on the brewing industry. A concluding section assesses the relevance of this strand of research for the practice of financial statement analysis.     

Coincident correlations of growth and cash flow in banking

Prior empirical research indicates that loan growth in the banking industry is positively related to cash flow. I offer an alternative methodology that is better able to capture the effect of cash flow on loan growth while controlling for the potentially coincident effect of loan growth on cash flow. Using a sample of 171,389 observations on banks, 1986–2007, I find that causality runs more consistently from growth to cash flow than from cash flow to growth. This extends prior empirical research by Houston and James (1998) and Campello (2002) on cash flow sensitivities in the banking industry.     

Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility

This paper presents comprehensive empirical evidence on the dynamics and causality within 30 US industry-specific volatilities during July 1963 and June 2008. We find that linear trends are present in 17 of the 30 industry volatilities. Granger-causality tests reveal that the industry of business supplies and the industry of finance are the most important lead indicators of industry volatilities. To uncover contemporaneous causal relationships in the market, we implement an emerging data-driven method of directed acyclic graphs. The results suggest that volatility shocks originating from business supplies, machinery, and consumer goods industries are sources of risks that affect most other industries. By contrast, volatilities in the two traditionally important industries, oil and autos, do not appear to have a substantial influence on other large industries in the contemporaneous time. Finally, business equipment and services, both containing information technology components, are the most important driving forces of the industry volatility surge in the late 1990s.     

信贷资源配置与非周期性产能过剩:微观数据的实证

厘清企业产能利用率的微观决定机制是探讨产能过剩长效治理机制的前提。现有研究虽然强调了中国重工业领域产能过剩的非周期性色彩,但缺乏微观数据实证的支持,也缺乏对不同因素实际影响的量化比较。为此,基于中国工业企业数据库的微观数据,选择钢铁行业作为研究样本,综合运用成本函数法的产能利用率测算以及产能利用率变化影响因素的微观计量,验证两个理论假设：制度政策性因素对于我国产能过剩形成具有更加显著的影响;信贷资源配置是企业产能利用率变化的决定变量,主导了我国重工业领域产能过剩的实际演变。进一步实证显示：金融抑制不仅会引发微观企业投资的预算软约束,还会扭曲微观企业行为。由此认为,我国钢铁行业乃至于其他重工业领域的产能过剩问题,改革比调控更加重要,而金融资源分配体制的改革则是重中之重。     

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY,DIVIDEND STATUS,AND SEO ANNOUNCEMENT‐DAY RETURNS

We analyze the relation between the dividend‐paying status of a firm and the seasoned equity offering (SEO) announcement‐day return. Asymmetric information theory suggests there should be a positive relation: the larger the disagreement, particularly between managers and shareholders, the larger the price drop on the SEO announcement day. However, this theoretical result has not been supported by prior empirical research. In this article we reconcile the gap between the theory and extant empirical results by identifying a structural change in the way the stock market treats dividend‐paying firms. Since the mid‐1980s the difference in information asymmetry between dividend‐ and non‐dividend‐paying firms has increased sharply. As a result, before the mid‐1980s the market did not differentiate strongly between them, but subsequently the market has reacted less negatively to announcements by dividend payers.     

Pandemics of the poor and banking stability

We first develop a theoretical model that shows that the likelihood of a collapse of the banking industry of a developing country increases, as the joint prevalence of large pandemics such as AIDS and malaria increases. We also show that the optimal bank reserves increase as the prevalence increases. In the empirical part of the paper, we consider a large dataset of developing countries, and we exhibit a causality effect from combined prevalence to deposit turnover, as well as causality effect from an increase of combined prevalence to an increase in bank reserves. Those empirical facts therefore support our theoretical findings.     

Systemic risk in the netting system

In interbank clearing networks, a bank experiencing sudden liquidity or solvency problems may prevent settlement of the claims of its direct creditors, which may in turn jeopardize settlement of other institutions. The paper presents an empirical assessment of the potential size of this ‘domino effect’ in the Italian netting system. A participant's settlement failure is simulated and the impact on the rest of the system measured. On average, only about 4 percent of participants were large enough to trigger systemic crises; less than 1 percent defaulted due to systemic reasons; the average monetary loss was less than 3 percent of the daily flow of funds through the clearing system. Similar simulations by other authors for the U.S. system yielded a much larger impact of systemic risk. We argue that the difference is mainly due to the much smaller volume of funds flowing through the Italian system and to structural differences.     

Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns

Recent empirical finance research has reported non-linear dynamics within asset returns. However, much of this extant research has focussed upon asset markets within the US and UK. This paper examines whether such dynamics are also present in a series of six international equity index returns. Using empirical models which are consistent that the theoretical behavioural finance noise trader motivation of non-linearity, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns, our results suggest these models improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast over linear alternatives. Further, the point of regime transition differs between positive and negative returns indicating that noise traders are more likely to engage in trend-chasing behaviour in up markets and anchoring behaviour in down markets. Finally, the forecast gain in the Asia-Pacific markets is greater than in the European markets suggestive that limits to arbitrage are greater perhaps as fundamental traders knowledge of market dynamics and noise trader behaviour is still evolving.     

结算会员分级制度对商品期货交易所的挑战和机遇

为了降低结算风险，中国金融期货交易所引入了结算会员分级制度，并提出了特殊结算会员的概念，从而对我国商品期货交易所现行的结算体制提出了挑战。虽然大多数国际期货交易所均采用分级结算制度，但是就我国商品期货市场的发展现状而言，会员分级未必有利。我国商品期货交易所应当在综合评价制度变更成本与收益的均衡、风险分散与市场活跃的均衡的基础上进行科学决策，并全面分析引入特殊结算会员的可行性。     

CEO turnover in a competitive assignment framework

There is widespread concern about whether Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) are appropriately punished for poor performance. While CEOs are more likely to be forced out if their performance is poor relative to the industry average, overall industry performance also matters. This seems puzzling if termination is disciplinary, however, we show that both absolute and relative performance-driven turnover can be natural and efficient outcomes in a competitive assignment model in which CEOs and firms form matches based on multiple characteristics. The model also has new predictions about replacement managers' equilibrium pay and performance. We document CEO turnover events during 1992–2006 and provide empirical support for our model.     

A Theoretical and Empirical Review of the EU Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies: In Search of Truth,Not Scapegoats

The undergoing financial turbulence has raised significant concerns over the role that credit rating agencies (CRAs) played in the inception, magnification and expansion of the crisis. In response, the EU legislature has adopted Regulation 1060/2009, which, for the first time, set out a legally binding pan‐European authorization regime for CRAs, which issue ratings that have been used by EU‐based financial institutions. As the turmoil turned into an unprecedented Eurozone debt crisis, EU politicians have been calling for tighter regulation of the credit rating industry. Drawing on the relevant empirical and theoretical research and building upon a comparative study of the corresponding US framework, the paper discusses critically the principles underlying EU Regulation 1060/2009 and the most recent suggestions for its reform. The paper argues that although, overall, the EU Regulation seems to be a well‐balanced instrument in the sense that it introduces the essential checks upon CRAs’ behavior while avoiding excessive regulatory intervention, more fine‐tuning is needed in certain fields, including, rating shopping, financial ties with rated entities, abuse of inside information, transparency and CRAs’ accountability.     

Banking industry volatility and economic growth

Utilizing the recent dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques for 36 markets, this research investigates the relationship between banking industry volatility and future economic growth, and provides empirical evidence complementary to Cole et al. (2008) who examine the finance-growth nexus from a unique asset pricing theory perspective and document a positive relationship between bank stock returns and future economic growth that is significantly influenced by a series of country-specific and banking institutional characteristics. We find that the negative link between banking industry volatility and future economic growth is significantly affected by government ownership of banks, the enforcement of the insider trading law, systemic banking crises, and bank accounting disclosure standards, while the impact of financial development is ambiguous. The significant results are primarily driven by the data from emerging markets.     

Central bank intervention

This special issue of the Journal of International Finance, Institutions and Money contains 11 articles that consider aspects of central bank intervention. It is particularly timely to publish such a special issue since the topic of central bank intervention has been an important issue in international finance during the last decade. Monetary policy, trading rules, econometric evidence of the effects of intervention on exchange rates and future direction on research in this area constitute the sections in this special issue.