Driven by the markets? ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme

At the height of the European sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank decided to purchase distressed European government bonds. Even worse, and more importantly, the ECB is providing direct support of several hundred billions of euros to troubled banks via its normal monetary policy operations by granting them the opportunity to refinance at an interest rate of 1%. This article argues that these purchases will result in common monetary policy being dominated by national fiscal policies. The most worrisome aspect is that the euro area appears to have stumbled into unconventional monetary policies that, once started, will be difficult to exit. In the euro area, properly functioning financial markets are at risk.     

中国政府及国有企业在美国法院面临的主权豁免问题分析——兼评美国Walters夫妇就“中国制造”手枪质量问题导致儿子死亡告中华人民共和国政府缺席判决执行案

美国Walters夫妇就"中国制造"手枪质量问题导致儿子死亡告中华人民共和国政府,美国密苏里州西区联邦法院用缺席判决判中国政府赔偿1000万美元。美国Walters夫妇要求扣留中国工商银行纽约分行等3家银行中相应的中国政府财产,美国纽约州南区联邦法院以该财产不在美国境内为由,驳回原告要求。2010年3月,美国原告提起上诉。本案仍然在进行中。本文通过对本案的分析,引出中国政府及国有企业在美国法院面临的主权豁免问题的分析,如中国政府在主权豁免案中可引用的抗辩理由;中国国有企业援引主权豁免的利弊;执行国有企业中相应财产问题。本文旨在引起学术界进一步关注在司法实践中涉及中国的主权豁免问题。     

Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults

This paper extends the baseline framework used in recent quantitative studies of sovereign default by assuming that the government can borrow using long-duration bonds. This contrasts with previous studies, which assume the government can borrow using bonds that mature after one quarter. We show that, when we assume that the government issues bonds with a duration similar to the average duration of sovereign bonds in emerging economies, the model generates an interest rate that is substantially higher and more volatile than the one obtained assuming one-quarter bonds. This narrows the gap between the predictions of the model and the data, which indicates that the introduction of long-duration bonds may be a useful tool for future research about emerging economies. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets.     

External Public Debt,Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis

Against the backdrop of the contagion literature, the paper analyses the impact of financial and trade linkages on sovereign bond spreads in the Eurozone crisis. Using quarterly data for a sample of EMU countries during the period 2000–13, we estimate fixed‐effect panel models with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors that are robust to general forms of spatial and temporal dependence. Our main results can be summarised as follows: first, we suggest that the ‘sudden stop’ of capital inflow towards the peripheral sovereign debt triggered a re‐segmentation of financial markets and economic systems along national borders, with negative implications for risk‐sharing and the efficient allocation of capital. The ‘home bias’ effect – that is the increase in the share of sovereign debt held by domestic banks – worsened the country‐specific risk because the twin crisis (sovereign and banking) began to be conceived as more closely intertwined within countries than before. Second, the structure of international trade helps to account for the geographic scope of contagion, even after controlling for macroeconomic and fiscal vulnerabilities. Finally, the ‘substitution effect’ of public debt securities of stand‐alone emerging countries has affected more the sovereign spreads in the core than in the periphery.     

Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union

This study examines the impact of the soundness of the banking sector on sovereign risk of EU member countries during the financial crisis using a selection of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) and the sovereign ratings of the three main rating agencies. Unlike previous literature that typically focuses on the ability of FSIs to foresee banking crises, we estimate ordered response models to assess the power of these indicators to explain sovereign risk. Our results show that evaluations made by the rating agencies are related to the lagged values of core FSIs such that an improvement in these indicators leads to improvements in upcoming sovereign ratings. Hence, reinforced banking soundness would reduce the sovereign risk. Accordingly, governments, supervisors and central banks should pay close attention to the evolution of certain FSIs related to the banking sector, in addition to other variables that have traditionally been taken into account in analysing sovereign risk.     

Nationale Geldsch?pfung zersetzt den Euroraum

The Eurosystem has been operating in crisis mode for more than four years now. Massive quantitative and qualitative easing in its monetary policy stance are the visible marks of its response to the turbulence in the financial sector. This policy aims primarily at maintaining financial stability in the euro area by providing vast liquidity support to commercial banks that are operating in nationally segmented banking systems. The sovereign debt crises in some member countries further exacerbate the segmentation problem along country borders. As a side effect, cross-border capital flows are substituted by money market operations by the national central banks. The latter are engaging more and more often in substantial balance-of-payments financing, and financial risks are shifted from investors to European taxpayers via the Eurosystem. Symptomatically, this shows up in exploding TARGET2 positions in the national central banks’ balance sheets. The longer this process continues, the stronger the centrifugal forces become that ultimately might burst the single currency. A solution requires a euro area-wide regulatory approach for the financial sector. Next to a uniform scheme for banking regulation, supervision and resolution, we recommend the comprehensive introduction of contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) as a major refinancing source for the banking industry. As this proposal cannot be introduced overnight, national and European banking resolution funds are necessary in the short run. The latter do not rescue banks, but they kick in as soon as a bank’s equity is depleted in order to wind down failing banks in a systemically prudent way.     

The effects of sovereign credit rating spillovers on neighbouring countries’ financial markets

This study investigates the spillover effects of long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating announcements on foreign currency-denominated bonds and stock markets in 19 African countries during the period of 1994–2014. Using a combination of Granger causality tests and impulse response function, the results show that there is marginal regional sovereign rating spillover impacts that are quickly absorbed into capital markets trading long-term securities. The analysis further shows marginal spillover effects that persist over longer time periods in sovereign ratings of other countries in the same region from a sovereign rating change in one country. These results imply that the regional bilateral linkages between countries serve as channels of capital and sovereign credit rating information flow. Thus, it is imperative for regional countries to pursue prudent developmental macroeconomic policies to avoid negative ratings that will have regional spillover effects.     

Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in

While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay more attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.     

Does governing law affect bond spreads?

Controlling for bond and issuer characteristics, bond spreads are expected to be equal across different legal jurisdictions, and differences are expected to disappear through arbitrage. However, an analysis of 490 U.S. dollar–denominated bonds issued by 53 emerging market sovereigns during 1990–2015 reveals that after the financial crisis of 2008, launch spreads of sovereign bonds issued under U.K. law have been higher than those issued under U.S. law, by 130 basis points for BB+ bonds and 175 basis points for B− bonds. This effect was not significant for investment grade bonds. On average, bonds issued under U.K. law had weaker ratings and shorter tenors post-crisis. The post-crisis impact of governing law on sovereign bond spreads is not explained by collective action clauses, or first-time bond issuances. Instead, the difference seems to be related to the perception that U.S. law offers stronger investor protection, and that the investor base for bonds issued under U.S. law is larger than that for bonds issued under U.K. law. The difference in spreads persists in the secondary market even after 180 days, perhaps because of the lack of liquidity, as investors tend to buy and hold these more attractive bonds on a longer-term basis.     

Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis

We compare sovereign bond spreads during the international financial crisis across groups drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score matching to select a non-crisis sample for comparison with the crisis sample that is more robust to exogenous crisis dating. We find minimal changes over the crisis period in the average spreads of local-currency-denominated emerging market bonds. In contrast, the spreads of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds increased by large amounts and were subject to sovereign risk contagion.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

The Internationalization of Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Banks

This article investigates which variables affect the location choice of banks from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in their process of internationalization. The article compares the differences in these variables for public and private banks. The sample consists of 141 banks operating in 58 countries. Results show that internationalization is undertaken by the largest banks, which preferably choose countries with similar language, close to the home country, and with the most opportunity for growth. Additionally, the effects of certain explanatory variables on the probability of expanding to a given country are different for public and private banks.     

Sovereign default and debt renegotiation

This paper develops a small open economy model to study sovereign default and debt renegotiation for emerging economies. The model features both endogenous default and endogenous debt recovery rates. Sovereign bonds are priced to compensate creditors for the risk of default and the risk of debt restructuring. The model captures the interaction between sovereign default and ex post debt renegotiation. We find that both debt recovery rates and sovereign bond prices decrease with the level of debt. In a quantitative analysis, the model accounts for the debt reduction, volatile and countercyclical bond spreads, countercyclical trade balance, and other empirical regularities of the Argentine economy. The model also replicates the dynamics of bond spreads during the debt crisis in Argentina.     

Why Do Japanese Non-Local Regional Banks Enter Other Prefectures Under the Region-Based Relationship Banking Policy?

In this study, we investigate the market characteristics of prefectures in which non-local regional banks of other prefectures choose to enter and their motivations for doing so, considering the Japanese government’s requirements for regional financial institutions to actively stimulate their local economies. In particular, by pooling prefecture-level data, the market characteristics of prefectures that experience more entrances by non-local regional banks compared with other prefectures are examined. It was found that entrance by non-local regional banks is more common in prefectures containing active high-performing companies. Hence, it can be considered that non-local regional banks that are not satisfied with lending opportunities in their home prefectures enter other prefectures to increase their lending opportunities to high-performing companies. This study contributes to the clarification of why many regional banks do not concentrate on businesses within their local regions and intentionally enter other prefectures, which is in contrast with the intent of the region-based relationship banking policy.     

Analytics of sovereign debt restructuring

This paper develops a simple theoretical model to analyse recent proposals on restructuring of sovereign bonds. We find that collective action clauses (CACs) inserted in bonds resolve the inefficiencies caused by intra-creditor coordination problems providing that all parties have complete information about each other's preferences. In such a world, statutory mechanisms, such as international bankruptcy courts, are unnecessary. This is no longer the case when the benefits from reaching a restructuring agreement are private information to the debtor and its creditors due to inefficiencies caused by the debtor-creditor bargaining problem.     

Duration of sovereign debt renegotiation

In the period since 1990, sovereign debt renegotiations take an average of five years for bank loans but only one year for bonds. We provide an explanation for this finding by highlighting one key difference between bank loans and bonds: bank loans are rarely traded, while bonds are heavily traded on the secondary market. In our theory, the secondary market plays a crucial information revelation role in shortening renegotiations. Consider a dynamic bargaining game with incomplete information between a government and creditors. The creditors' reservation value is private information, and the government knows only its distribution. Delays in reaching agreements arise in equilibrium because the government uses costly delays to screen the creditors' reservation value. When the creditors trade on the secondary market, the market price conveys information about their reservation value, which lessens the information friction and reduces the renegotiation duration. We find that the secondary market tends to increase the renegotiation payoff of the government but decrease that of the creditors while increasing the total payoff. We then embed these renegotiation outcomes in a simple sovereign debt model to analyze the ex ante welfare implications. The secondary market has the potential to increase the government ex ante welfare when the information friction is severe.     

The effect of language use on the financial performance of microfinance banks: Evidence from cross-border activities in 74 countries

This multi-year study examines the relationship between financial performance and language use, observing 405 partnerships between microfinance banks and their international financial partners in 74 countries. Drawing on language research in international business, we find that microfinance banks based in English-speaking, French-speaking, and Spanish-speaking countries have higher performance. Furthermore, the linguistic distance between the home country of a microfinance bank and the home country of its international partner(s) is negatively related to its financial performance. Our large-scale study confirms the effect of language use on organization-level financial performance and extends research on language in multinationals from intra-firm to inter-firm relationships.     

Can a Reliable Framework for Sovereign-Backed Securities Be Established?

The European Commission has proposed the introduction of sovereign-backed securities (SBSs) as a class of safe assets for the euro area. SBSs are generated by an issuing agency that would purchase a representative portfolio of national sovereign bonds from the euro area. Purchases are financed by issuing (at least) two types of structured bonds: a risk-free senior SBS tranche and a risky junior SBS tranche. Overall, we recognise that the SBS concept has the potential to improve financial stability and financial integration in the euro area. However, we highlight several potentially severe technical and political problems. Most important for the SBS concept to function properly are the de-privileging of national sovereign bonds in bank regulation, rules to ensure conditionality in times of crisis and measures to prevent disincentives for national public finances. If such conditions remain elusive, we advise against the introduction of SBSs.     

Sovereign credit ratings, emerging market risk and financial market volatility

This article presents event studies that find a significant effect on dollar bond yield spreads when rating agencies put emerging-market sovereign bonds on review with negative outlook. The finding has two conditional implications. If rating agencies can be turned from late into early warning signals, they would have the potential to dampen boom-bust cycles in emerging-market flows. If rating agencies cannot improve on their reactive approach witnessed in the run-up and aftermath of recent currency crises, regulation and guidelines stipulating a certain rating status for institutional investment will continue to intensify boom-bust cycles. The paper concludes with regulatory suggestions for both outcomes.     

Ethical issues in international lending

This article deals with the ethical issues faced by commercial banks, governments and international financial institutions in their international lending activities. Such issues include not only to whom and for what purpose such lending takes place but also the more delicate questions of the relations between sovereign lending and economic management, as well of lending to sovereign countries embroiled in situations of conflict. It leads to the ethical issues raised by the present international debt crisis: co-responsibility, burden-sharing, role of the international organisations. Finally, capital flight out of developing countries is studied as a special case.Bernard Snoy born in Bois-Seigneur-Isaac (Belgium) in 1945.Holder of bachelor's degree in philosophy and of doctor's degree in law from Catholic University of Louvain and of Ph.D. in economics from Harvard.Has worked for 12 years with the World Bank in Washington and in Paris.Has been teaching at the Catholic University of Louvain and at the College of Europe (Bruges).Has been for two years Economic Adviser at the Commission of the European Communities.Since May 1988, Bernard Snoy assumed the position of Chief of the Minister's Cabinet at the Belgian Ministry of Finance.This presentation made in November 1987 reflects the views of the speaker and does not necessarily represent the views of the Commission.