代际经济支持、养老金和挤出效应—以上海市为例

利用2003年上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查数据,选取上海市城市老人作为研究对象,利用多元线性回归分析方法,考察养老金与代际经济支持之间的关系以及隐藏在代际经济支持背后的动机。代际经济支持的方向不仅从子女向父母,还从父母向子女;代际经济支持会被养老金挤出,但不会被全部挤出;利他主义和交换是隐藏在代际经济支持背后的动机;挤出效应得到验证。     

收入代际转移动机理论述评

收入代际转移,即收入在家庭内不同代成员之间的转移,是经济生活中一个不可忽视的现象,它主要包括父母在世时对子女经济上的支持以及父母去世后留给子女的遗产。收入代际转移不但会改变父母和子女的消费支出和储蓄行为,而且会对政府的税收及转移支付政策的效果产生重要的影响。因此,对收入代际转移的研究系当前西方经济学中一个热点问题。其中,对收入代际转移的动机的研究则又处于研究的核心地位。     

中国城市家庭代际关系及老年人供养问题的研究

随着中国"老龄化"趋势的不断加强,社会快节奏下年轻人压力的不断增大,通过对南京市五个区调研数据的整理分析,发现当前中国城市家庭老年人呈现出经济上和精神上独立性均加强的趋势;老年人在代际关系中的交换动机减弱,对成年子女的下一代的照顾越来越"无私";老年人真正享受退休生活的时间减少,负担家庭责任的时间延长。同时也发现养老金分配不均、差距大的问题。对此也提出政策性意见。     

城镇化背景下农民工家庭代际关系及影响因素:基于性别与代次的分析

在快速城镇化背景下,中国农民工家庭的代际关系也处在不断变迁中.本文利用2018年"百村调查"数据,使用潜在类别分析方法,发现农民工家庭存在紧密型、传统型、接受型、亲近型和疏离型等五种代际关系类型,传统农村家庭代际关系已经衍生发展出多种类型.其中,男性农民工更容易与父母产生紧密型或接受型关系,女性农民工更可能与父母有亲近型、传统型、疏离型关系;而新一代农民工更容易与父母产生紧密型、接受型、亲近型关系,老一代农民工更可能与父母有传统型或疏离型关系.同时,人口流动特征对农民工家庭代际关系的影响存在性别与代次差异,异地流动的男性农民工和新一代农民工与父母形成疏离型关系的可能性较低,但对女性农民工和老一代农民工的疏离型家庭代际关系具有显著正向影响.     

代际关系视角下农村空巢老人养老现状 ——基于B村的实地调研

随着城市化进程的加快,大量农村青壮年劳动力外出,农村人口结构的老龄化及空巢化进一步加剧,使得农村空巢老人的养老问题由隐性变为显性,且成为政府及学界高度关注的社会现实问题.本文以B村为个案,基于实地调研,从代际关系的视角出发探讨农村空巢老人日常生活形态下的养老现状、存在问题及其解决举措.代际关系的经济供养、生活照料、精神慰藉等与其生活满意度密切相关,认为子女与父母代际关系(抚养与赡养)之间的失衡是造成养老困境的直接因素.从社会交换理论和利他主义动机分析家庭子女的心理特征,传统的孝文化被淡化,呈现出自我为中心的利己主义和平等的价值交易理念.侧重于探讨经济因素和家庭关系对老人养老状况的影响.     

我国开征遗产税的收入分配效应

本文通过构建包含遗产和遗产税的代际交叠模型，对征收遗产税的收入分配效应进行了一般均衡分析，并通过数值模拟方法估算了在两种不同遗产动机情形下，征收遗产税的经济效应。研究发现，遗产税通过影响居民的消费与储蓄决策减少了财富代际转移数量和资本存量水平，并进一步提高了资本回报率，降低了劳动报酬率，进而影响长期收入稳态水平。遗产税对收入差距的影响取决于遗产动机，在有目的的遗产动机情形下，遗产税将引起收入差距的扩大；在偶然动机情形下，其结果依赖于相关参数的大小，作用较为模糊。     

中国代际核算体系的建立和对养老保险制度改革的研究

代际核算方法是 2 0世纪 90年代出现的分析财政问题和代际平衡问题的新方法。本文建立了中国的第一套代际核算体系 ,并利用代际核算体系分析了中国的养老保险体系。考虑到中国的实际情况 ,本文对传统的代际核算体系进行了以下扩展 :首先 ,传统的代际核算体系将人口按照年龄和性别分类 ,而我国无论是税收体系还是养老保险体系 ,城乡差别都比较大 ,因此我们将人口按照年龄、性别和城乡三个维度分开 ;第二 ,由于我国的社会保障体系不是全民覆盖 ,因此我们在考虑社会保障体系的缴费和支付时 ,需要考虑覆盖面的变化。核算结果表明我国城乡不平衡很严重 ,城镇人口到 55岁 (其中女性到 50岁 )时代际帐户就为负值 ,而农村人口要到 85岁 (其中女性到 90岁 )代际帐户才为负值。我国的代际不平衡也较为严重 ,按照不同的生产率增长率和贴现率的假设 ,我国未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新出生一代高 66%到 1 0 2 %。而如果我们采用延长退休年龄的政策 ,代际不平衡情况可以得到很大改善 ,未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新生代高 43 %到 81 %。而如果不对机关事业单位的养老保险制度进行改革 ,代际不平衡状况将更加严重 ,未来代的代际帐户值比现存各代高出 78%到 1 1 5%。     

农村老年人家庭代际经济交换的年龄发展轨迹——成年子女角度的研究

论文从农村成年子女个体层面的角度研究他们与老年父母间的经济交换在其整个中青年阶段的变动状况。研究借助生命历程理论框架,从社会、家庭和个体层面实现宏微观视角的整合,力求达到对家庭代际经济支持发展动力机制的系统认识。借助纵贯调查数据,将代际经济交换的生理年龄效应、队列的历史效应和家庭生命周期效应加以分解。结果证明了老年父母在代际交换当中经济福利有所提升,表现在增龄效应和宏观的历史效应两方面,三代家庭成员所处的生命阶段对代际经济交换水平具重要影响。同时也对性别差异进行了探讨。     

公共教育水平的提升如何增强代际收入流动性——基于CFPS和CHFS数据的实证分析

本文从理论和实证两个角度对公共教育如何影响代际收入流动性的机制进行研究。研究结果表明，首先，中国的代际收入流动性仍处于较高水平。其次，当子女受教育程度较低时，子女收入更多地依赖于父母；而当子女受教育程度较高时，子女收入更多地依靠自身的努力，无需依赖父母。第三，公共教育水平的提高有利于提高代际收入流动性。当公共教育水平较低时，公共教育无法发挥对代际收入流动性的调节作用。当公共教育处于中等水平时，公共教育对代际收入流动性的提高有一定的促进作用。当公共教育水平较高时，公共教育对提高代际收入流动性的作用最大。基于以上结论，本文提出提高公共教育水平、促进机会公平的对策建议。     

成年子女照顾者和老年人居家养老研究

随着中国人口老龄化，居家养老成为老年人照顾领域中重要的养老方式。对深圳老人成年子女照顾者的问卷调查数据分析发现，接近三分之一的老年人选择和成年子女共同生活，成年子女照顾者在照顾老人的过程中面临压力，男性和女性照顾者在经济、时间和心理所受到的压力有所差异。老人在经济方面更依赖男性照顾者，而在生活照料方面则更依赖女性照顾者，老人更倾向于与儿子同住，成年子女照顾者也对居家养老服务提出了具体的需求。     

TRANSFERS FROM MIGRANTS TO THEIR CHILDREN: EVIDENCE THAT ALTRUISM AND CULTURAL FACTORS MATTER

This paper focuses on the determinants of financial inter vivos transfers by migrants living in France in 2003 to their adult children. From a theoretical viewpoint, such transfers may be explained either by altruism or by exchange. While parents would direct their assistance to their less well off children under altruism, support should be channeled to children who live nearby their parents under the exchange motive. We assess the relevance of these two motives using the French PRI survey. Unequal sharing is frequently observed and children are more likely to receive financial transfers when they are in poor circumstance, but not necessarily when living in proximity to parents. We also emphasize the role of cultural factors as determinants of the parental allocation among children. Muslim parents, in particular, are more likely to make transfers to sons than to daughters.     

Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution

This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model with bequests and inter vivos transfers. In the model, households in the same family line behave strategically to determine their consumption, working hours, gifts, and savings. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, the paper measures time preference and parental altruism consistent with the economy's capital-output ratio and the size of intergenerational transfers. The model with intergenerational transfers better explains, although not fully, the wealth distribution of the United States. The paper also analyzes the effects of government policy changes on wealth accumulation, distribution, and social welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D31, D64, D91, H31.     

Tax avoidance and intra-family transfers

We study how taxes on intra-family transfers (bequests and gifts) affect parents' transfers to their children. Our focus is on the incentives for tax avoidance. These issues are important for families and their welfare, as well as for governments and their possibilities of raising revenue from transfer taxes. Using a theoretical model, we show how altruistic parents avoid taxes by changing the timing of transfers when inter vivos gifts are taxed separately from bequests (which is the case in many developed countries). The excess burden per tax dollar of the transfer taxes is sometimes infinitely large because of tax avoidance. All tax avoidance is eliminated if bequests and gifts from the same donor are jointly taxed.     

Agricultural Roots in Intergenerational Transfers in China

Economists have been interested in the motivations of intergenerational transfers, for different motivations affect the effectiveness of anti-poverty public transfers. However, one’s motivation is largely shaped by culture and social conventions. This paper sheds light on the influence of rice cultivation in intergenerational transfers in China. This is also the first time that economists consider cultural factors in the study of intergenerational transfers. Cultivating rice requires elaborate irrigation systems and large amounts of labor input so that rice farmers have to cooperate extensively with their neighbors, which has gradually shaped people’s value to be more inter-dependent. Based on micro-level data from CHARLS and sub-national rice data from China, our empirical results show strong evidence that individuals from rice regions are more likely to provide economic support for their parents. A one-percentage point increase in the share of rice in the total grain planting area will raise transfer incidence by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, and rice region residents transfer on average 300–400 yuan more in 2011 and about 1,000 yuan more in 2013 to their parents than those from wheat regions. Meanwhile they are more inclined to rely on their adult children for elderly support. Urban citizens are less affected. Using instrumental variable estimation, we are able to prove the effect is causal. With future continued deepening of population aging in China, relying on children for old age support may become more and more unrealistic, the government needs to coordinate the relationship between public transfer and private transfer to ensure the quality of life for the elderly.     

Intergenerational transfers,demographic transition,and altruism: Problems in developing Asia

This paper develops a three‐period overlapping‐generations model where middle‐aged agents care about not only their own lifetime utility but also their old parents' and children's well‐being. The doubly altruistic agents choose amounts of intergenerational transfers to their old parents and children as well as private savings. The government specifies amounts of public transfers from working adults to the dependents. The model also takes the effects of demographic transition on the burdens of supporting the elderly and children into account. Using 23 countries' data from the National Transfer Accounts (NTA ), we estimate the degrees of filial and parental altruism and adjust them for their respective life expectancy and fertility rates. The findings suggest that people in developing countries are more parentally altruistic than those in developed ones while the adjusted degree of filial altruism tends to be low in developing Asia. Our welfare analyses reveal that the developing Asian countries must introduce more comprehensive public welfare programs for the elderly to maximize social welfare. Moreover, their low adjusted degree of filial altruism may trap the developing Asian countries at the low levels of public old‐age support and social welfare as the further demographic transition ensues.     

A SAVINGS SUBSIDISATION SYSTEM IN A MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH: AN EXTENSION OF WIGGER (1999)

Population ageing is now an established demographic characteristic of many economies. Economists working in the endogenous growth theory tradition have sought to model the relationship between public pensions, financed on a 'Pay-As-You-Go' basis, and the growth in per capita incomes. The resultant intergenerational wealth redistribution from young to older people seems to decrease private savings, diminish capital accumulation, and lower the growth of per capita incomes. The underlying transmission mechanism appears to be a crowding out effect in private capital markets contingent upon the introduction of public pension systems. A growing literature exists on the interrelationships between public pension schemes, fertility rates and endogenous growth. Following Wigger's (1999) pioneering overlapping generations endogenous growth model, we extend this model to examine the effects of a savings subsidisation system on the rate of per capita income growth, fertility and voluntary intrafamily wealth transfers, where parents view children both as an insurance good and a consumption good. Moreover, children care about the consumption levels of their parents. An increase in contributions to a savings subsidised public pension scheme will crowd out private intergenerational transfers from the young to the old and thereby negate the usefulness of children as an insurance good.     

Social Security and Growth in an Altruistic Economy

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of private and public intergenerational transfers in the presence of endogenous growth. It focuses on two-sided altruism implying that individuals have both a motive to make gifts to their parents and a motive to leave bequests to their children. The growth effects of social security depend on whether children are making gifts to their parents or parents are leaving bequests to their children. Which of the transfers is operative, in turn, depends on the size of social security benefits. Social security is legislated endogenously. The introduction of a social security program which definitely reduces per capita income growth and harms future generations is contemplated by altruistic individuals even if non-altruistic individuals disapprove it.     

Do estate and gift taxes affect the timing of private transfers?

Proposals to alter the estate tax are contentious and have been considered largely in an empirical vacuum. This paper examines time series and cross-sectional variation to identify the effects of estate and gift taxation on the timing of private transfers. The analysis is based on data from the 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 Surveys of Consumer Finances. Legislative activity during this period reduced the tax disadvantage of bequests relative to gifts. Moreover, the magnitude of this reduction differed systematically across identifiable household categories. We find that households experiencing larger declines in the expected tax disadvantages of bequests reduced inter vivos transfers relative to households experiencing small declines in the tax disadvantages of bequests. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of transfers is responsive to applicable gift and estate tax rates. The results also provide evidence of a systematic bequest motive for high-wealth households.     

Bequests,gifts, and education: links between intergenerational transfers

We study the channels parents use to make transfers to their children. First, we focus on the relationship between investments in education and property transfers. Second, we turn to how property transfers are divided between inter vivos gifts and bequests. We use a Swedish dataset that is superior to previously used data as it contains information on both gifts and inheritances received from parents. We estimate models for the probabilities of having university education, receiving gifts, and receiving inheritances. In addition, we estimate models for gift and inheritance amounts. We find that the more resources parents have, the higher the likelihood of transfers, and that the correlation between receiving inter vivos gifts and inheritances is very high. Finally, women are more likely to have university education and to receive gifts, and daughters receive gifts of larger amounts than sons, although there are no differences in terms of inheritance.